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Pax

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Everything posted by Pax

  1. Brock played an early Gunter, too... it always baffles me when people use this argument as if you're playing your second game against a team that's playing their 12th. It was early for both teams. I'm not declaring Gunter state champs in D1 because they beat Brock; I'm merely justifying an argument that they would be competitive. Nothing more.
  2. Gunter has no reason to cheat in order to stay down at D2. Gunter played and beat Brock 35-12 this year. Brock lost the state semifinal in 3AD1 to Malakoff 38-31 - who went on to beat Franklin in the state championship 14-7. Gunter would have been right in that mix at D1 just the same. Risking getting caught cheating to avoid moving up to D1 when they would clearly be just as competitive makes absolutely zero sense. It's just the same story with any successful program. The accusations of cheating come with the territory. We are used to it at this point. It's actually flattering that there are people out there that cannot fathom how Gunter can have such a good program without cheating. There is zero evidence of it, but the accusations are ultimately nothing more than flattery.
  3. You made page 2! Also - you forgot one selection on your poll. There is no other season than football season.
  4. Or, people just move to growing communities outside the city. I'm pretty sure people in the 1800s knew this. I feel like welcoming you to "the world". But when you have a hammer, everything looks like a nail. I suppose on a football forum, everything that merits a cause has a cause related to football....
  5. There's no such thing as just being good anymore. Out of the woodwork come people like this - who are so far removed from this kind of success that baseless accusations of cheating or unspecified (vague) advantages are the only way to process success. Maybe, it's just a good program. Win state, good job. Win state four times, you're cheating. I suppose it goes with the territory. At the end of the day, it's jealousy that fuels this sentiment - in my opinion. Like I've said before on here - growing up 10 miles from Celina. I've been guilty of it myself. I hopped on the hate train and I've honked the horn. Ive been on both sides. Now having experienced the small town I grew up in making waves that wake up the haters, I understand how silent people like you (and I) actually are. The louder you scream, the less you're heard. I hope your small town gets to experience something like this. It's awesome - and when it does, you'll understand exactly what I'm saying. Edit : I didn't mean to respond specifically to you with this comment.
  6. Yeah, either way he was pretty much shut down in the second half - and really outside those two long runs, we was held in check. He had a burst, and I think he could have broke one of those long ones at any time.
  7. I'm getting the stats from the official UIL site as well. He had gains of 19 yards and losses of 3 for a NET of 16. Either way, not very many yards, but you're only referencing the positive yardage. Not sure why the UIL separates out positive yardage from negative - it seems cumbersome, but that's why we are 3 yards off in the second half.
  8. #5 was killing us. I think we did a great job of shutting him down in the second half, and that was the biggest difference. By my rough count, I believe he had 12 carries for 150 rushing yards in the first half (2 of those carries went for 43 and 61 yards) - so 104 on 2 carries; 46 yards on the other 10 in the first half, and 10 total rushes for 16 total rushing yards in the second half.
  9. This game was tied at 28. In the last 7:18 of the first half, Benjamin outscored Oglesby 40-6.
  10. Gordon's average margin of victory is 50.5, and their lowest margin of victory is 46, so basically every game was called due to the mercy rule. That'll definitely throw the numbers out of whack. Basically, their average game lasts one half. That's pretty incredible really. Not sure how reliable it is, but on MaxPreps, they have scoring broken down by quarter. For Gordon : 1 - 23.0 2 - 27.3 3 - 4.5 4 - 0 This tells me that the mercy rule is usually invoked by halftime or very early in the 3rd quarter for pretty much every game. They haven't scored in the 4th quarter - - - and my guess is because they haven't played a 4th quarter all year.
  11. So, I'm not exactly familiar with the 45-point mercy rule. Am I correct that it only applies at or after halftime? Like, you could be up by 80 points, but the game won't get called until halftime - - but if you are up by 45 or more at any point after halftime, the game is called right then? In other words, if a team won by 60 points, that game was over at halftime - is that sound logic?
  12. I just realized my method of predicting games doesn't account for the 6-man mercy rule. Shame on me....
  13. I must be behind then. I was having trouble getting the stream to work on Firefox. It seem's whatever player Bally uses doesn't like dual monitors. Switched to Microsoft Edge, and it works fine.
  14. I've never run the numbers for a 6-man game, so I went ahead and did this one. Westbrook averages 57.6 per game vs teams that allow 33.0 per game (+24.6), and they hold teams that score 42.4 on average to 16.4 (26.1 fewer). Overall, Westbrook has a swing of +50.7. Gordon averages 58.8 per game vs teams that allow 35.0 per game (+23.8), and they hold teams that average 41.0 per game to 8.3 (32.7 fewer) for an overall swing of +56.5. Based on all games played, I get a Gordon win, 37-29. Based only on playoff games where Westbrook is beating teams that win on average 49-25 by an average score of 71-32 (+63.5 swing) Gordon is beating teams that win on average 56-24 by an average score of 66-18 (+80.1 swing), based on playoff games, I get a Gordon win, 62-48. I'll go with the latter on my prediction - 62-48 Gordon.
  15. Perhaps you don't understand the rules. Rumors (like you literally just reiterated) are against the rules. Agree with it; disagree with it. It's a rule. I assume it makes it easier on the staff of this site to just treat ALL rumors the same. Regardless of the innocence or vulgarity of it. You start/spread a rumor, you broke the rules. It's an easy rule to avoid. I've seen a lot of what I would classify as rumors let slide on this sight. In fact, I've probably uttered some myself, and it managed to slide. You might not like the line that is drawn, but it's drawn for a reason. They stop it at "go" so they don't have a pile of dung to deal with at "end". Respect it. This is a great site. If your sentence begins with "I heard", it probably breaks the rules. Like I said, I've said it myself, but perhaps the context releaved me. You're saying it for the sake of saying it - and I suspect that's the difference. This is an awesome site. Whoever maintains it does an awesome job. Welcome. The more the merrier. The assumption that everyone has by default is that you broke a rule you didn't know existed. Now you do. Protesting it won't get you anywhere. Absolutely no hard feelings here. Welcome to the club, brother!
  16. I have zero dogs in this fight, but the rule is clear. I happen to agree with the rule, but even if I didn't, I still understand the rule. It is incredibly easy to avoid breaking it. You already know how. In fact, you've already figured it out - because you're not dumb. So, instead of pissing around the rule, stop stinking the place up for the rest of us and just MOVE ON.
  17. I know there are many who say "football speed" is something different, but just some kind of metric out there: Gunter finished in the top 4 in the 4x100, 4x200, and 4x400 at the state track meet. 3rd in one of those; don't remember which one. Daingerfield didn't have a qualifying team in any of these races. I don't know if it's because they didn't have a team in this races or just didn't qualify for the state meet.
  18. In knew I was going long on it! Trust me! That was not at all lost on me. I realized how long it was gonna be about halfway through, and figured I might as well....
  19. I dont remember the kid's name, but #35 for Canadian was a dangerous option for the QB. Looked like a dump-off option in the passing game, and it was a successful option early on. Gunter did a good job taking that away later in the game I think. Canadian's QB - injuries or not - was very good. Gunter did have the Canadian QB #4 (is he a Cavalier?) on the run quite a bit which had an impact. He threw a pretty ball, and frustrated the defense (by defense, I mean me). Great player, and if he wasn't 100%, I think it played a part. Perhaps not in the outcome, but man is he good. I have read where Gunter held him 46 passing yards shy of becoming the 4th player in TX HS football history to reach 4,000+ passing and 1,000+ rushing in a season. A group that consists of Kyler Murray. 46 yards shy of joining that elite group. He was short on passing yards. I think he already had 1,500+ rushing yards coming into the game; he just lacked thr passing yards to join that elite group coming into the game. Though I do think his 86th pass broke the TX HS football record for TDs in a season. Great player. One I was worried about going into the game. On the flip side, I believe Gunter had 4 or 5 key injuries as well - a lot of those in the secondary. I only say this to point out that pretty much every team has injuries by game #14. You play who you play. I think it was Gunter's D line that relieved the Gunter secondary. I remember early in the game thinking, "really? That guy was open?" After about 3 or 4 pretty darts up the middle, and I'm like, damn. This might be a long game. He was shifty back there too. In every other game, that was 6-8 sacks. Canadian's QB was very very (not enough very's) at avoiding the hit/sack, and for the most part, it was a gasp in the Gunter crowd when we had him and missed. And sure enough, he more often than not hit a wide open man (with a pretty dart) Anyway - great QB. I don't know if it was scheme-related or secondary-related, but he had guys to throw to. That seemed to be shut down in the second half, so probably scheme related. If he was injured, it didn't show from where I was sitting. I know you're not using that as an excuse; I'm just saying - damn good QB. Period. Gunter did a good job of reeling that in a bit. As I said before, #35 was always a target that made me nervous. If I didn't know how football works, I would have assumed he snuck on the field off the sidelines after the ball was snapped. I don't know his stats while I'm making this comment, but I assume he had some great yards after catch stats throughout the season. Great option for a QB in trouble. Anyway. I'm still talking about it because of the respect I have for the Canadian football program. Great program - and honestly for me - the classiest bunch of kids we play all year - every year. I know most people miss this kind of thing, but after the game, the Gunter players lined up to stand at attention to Canadian's school song. We learned that from Canadian - when they did it for us back in 2016 when the whole team lined up and faced our crowd while we played our school song. Absolute class. Looks like Gunter learned that display of class from Canadian. Another one in the books. And from the VERY recent release from the UIL regarding cutoffs for classifications, it looks like we have two more years in the same class. Let's get two more state semifinal games out of it.
  20. Overall (all games played), Gunter comes in averaging 58.2 per game against teams that allow 29.3 per game on average (28.9 more). They hold teams that average 36.6 ppg to 7.5 per game (29.2 fewer) for an overall swing of +58.1. Tidehaven is scoring 43.4 per game vs defenses that allow 21.3 on average (22.1 more) and they hold teams averaging 28 per game to 5.9 (22 fewer) for an overall swing of +44.1. Based on all games played, I get a 36-22 Gunter win. Taking Gunter's 3 best "swing" games, where their opponents win on average 37-29 - Gunter won those games against those opponents by an average score of 74-4. Gunter's swing in these 3 games is a +81.4. In Tidehaven's three best swing games, their opponents win on average 30-14, Tidehaven beat these opponents by an average score of 49-2 for a swing of +62.4. Based on these three games by each opponent, I get a Gunter win, 48-27. Now, taking each team's WORST three swing games, Gunter's three opponents lose on average 29-39. Gunter won those games by an average score of 54-10 for a swing of +33.3 In Tidehaven's worst three swing games, their opponents lose on average 26-27. Tidehaven won those games by an average score of 31-7 for a swing of +23.3. Now, taking the same sets of best and worst three swing games (sorry for how convoluted this can be). If I take Tidehaven's best three and put them against Gunter's worst three (in other words, Tidehaven's best 3 performances vs Gunter's worst 3), I get a Tidehaven win, 38-22. If I put Gunter's best three against Tidehaven's worst 3, I get a Gunter win, 56-4. I consider this the "range of possibilities" considering all games played. Considering only district and playoff games by each team, I get a 46-17 Gunter win. Considering only playoff games, I get 45-25 Gunter. Everything below is from a PPG standpoint. In 3AD2 : Gunter has the #1 offense, Tidehaven #8. Tidehaven has the #1 defense, Gunter #2. Gunter has the #1 average margin of victory, Tidehaven #3. In all of 11-man football (2A-6A) : Gunter has the #1 offense, Tidehaven #78. Tidehaven has the #3 defense, Gunter #4. Gunter has the #1 average margin of victory, Tidehaven #13. I'm gonna go with a 42-21 Gunter win in this one.
  21. Not yet. I plan on running the numbers sometime this weekend.
  22. That one made me raise an eyebrow, too. I've never seen them do anything like that. Thought it was weird. Great season as always.
  23. I'm disappointed y'all couldn't get one more score in there to make me look like a genius. Good luck next week!
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