Pax

That would be 115.6. Cooper's own rating is 140.97.

Gunter's not really a "run-it-up" kind of team. 28 of those 82 points came off of 3 punt returns for TDs and an INT returned for a TD. Not saying it couldn't happen again, but I think it would take something like that. 21 points scored without your offense or defense being on the field is kind of crazy.

Waskom is scoring 30.6 per game against defenses that allow 31.5 per game - or just shy of what teams give up anyway. They are allowing 35.1 ppg to teams that score 30.2 on average - so giving up about 5 more points than their opponents are used to scoring on average. Overall swing for Waskom is a -5.8. Harmony is scoring 41.1 per game against defenses that allow 29.6 (11.5 more) and allowing 23.0 ppg to teams that score 30.4 on average - or about a touchdown less (7.4). Harmony's swing is a +18.9. Overall (considering all games played), I get a Harmony win, 47-23. Waskom and Harmony have three common opponents (all within the district) Both teams played New Diana in a tight 1-point game. Waskom came up short 36-35 while Harmony came out on top 42-41. Waskom lost to Elysian Fields 16-32 while Harmony easily beat EF 58-14. This common game seems to be an outlier. Just going by this game alone, Harmony should easily handle Waskom in blowout fashion, but based on everything else, they are more closely matched. Anyone know if Waskom was missing players in the EF game or if EF had players out in the Harmony game or something else that can explain? I still believe Harmony is about 20-30 points better than Waskom on paper, but based on the EF games, Harmony looks about 60 points better. I don't think that's the case, so I was wondering what happened with Harmony and Waskom's matchup against EF - if anything. Could be just one of those games. The last common opponent is Queen City. Waskom won a tight game 37-34, and Harmony handled them 38-8. This makes more sense to me. Harmony's margin of victory is 27 points higher, and I have Harmony about 25-30 points better than Waskom. The football gods make sense again.... Harmony 47 Waskom 23

Gunter comes in averaging 56.4 against teams that give up 32.7 per game (23.8 more), and they give up 8.0 ppg to teams averaging 30.8 per game (22.8 fewer). Total swing for Gunter is a +46.6. Lone Oak is scoring 26.1 against teams that give up 34.8 per game (8.7 fewer), and they give up 32.7 per game to teams that average 32.2 per game (0.5 more). Total swing for Lone Oak is -9.2. I'll take Gunter in this one, 56-0.

I was thinking the same thing. A 4th Punt was almost returned for a TD as well. And then yeah, Gunter takes the knee on the 1 yard line to end it. They almost certainly would have.

I'll go ahead and pick up Gunter's ST/DEF for my fantasy team. At least one fumble recovery. Pick 6. 3 punts returned for TDs and 2 safeties en route to an 82-0 win over Howe.

Honey Grove up 40-3 over Boles after becoming the last team in the state of Texas across all classifications both public and private to give up a point. 3 total points allowed now thru 5 and a half games.

Strength of schedule is absolutely accounted for. I would also disagree that Timpson has played a much tougher schedule. Tougher? Yes. Much tougher, not really. The average rating of Timpson opponents is 123. The average Garrison opponent has a rating of 111. So, Timpson opponents are on average about 12 points better than Garrison opponents. This according to Pigskin ratings. MY method uses something I call "swing". And the difference between Timpson and Garrison in this stat of mine is 14 in Timpson's favor, so on par with Pigskin. Meaning, I'm accounting for Timpson's stronger strength of shedule in the math, just perhaps not as drastically as you think it should be and maybe not as transparently, but this 14-point differential in strength of schedule is absolutely factored into my predictions. I've been doing this for about 6 or 7 years now. I've run the numbers the exact same way for the most part for that amount of time with very few tweaks. Hundreds of games, and far more often than not, the predictions are pretty close. They are horribly wrong on occasion of course, but pretty close the vast majority of the time. Now, all that said, I'm not necessarily predicting who will win the game - - I use all this more to get an idea of the TYPE of game to expect, and in this case, my "prediction" is not necessarily who will win, but rather the type of game to expect, and in this case - a high-scoring one or two-score game. That's REALLY what I'm predicting; not necessarily the winner. I have Timpson winning by 5. If Garrison wins by 5 in a 30+ to 30+ type game, I consider my prediction accurate even though I would have predicted the wrong winner - if that makes sense. What I'm going for is what type of game to expect. A close, high-scoring game. That's my ACTUAL prediction. I predict a winner simply because the math spits out one, so I include the final score my algorithm comes up with. 37-32. If it's a blowout one way or the other, I would have gotten another one wrong. It's certainly happened before. We are just all having fun here.

Yes, there are teams that have a shot at beating Gunter this year I think. The top 4 teams in the state look to be evenly matched - and each of the top 4 represent a different region in the state, so that's kind of interesting. This state ranking is per Pigskin : 1 Gunter (6-0) 2 Canadian (6-0) 3 Newton (5-0) 4 Tidehaven (5-0) These same 4 teams represent the top 4 in the state in margin of victory as well 1 Gunter 303-56 (Avg Game - 51-9) (Avg Margin - 42) 2 Tidehaven 211-7 (Avg Game - 42-1) (Avg Margin - 41) 3 Canadian 350-116 (Avg Game - 58-19) (Avg Margin - 39) 4 Newton 289-101 (Avg Game - 58-20) (Avg Margin - 38) This is a tough final four if this is who makes it, and there's no guarantee any of them will be there.

I ran my normal numbers game for Garrison vs Timpson using stats up to this point. I realize it's a couple of weeks before this game so the numbers will change leading up to the game, but as it stands now : Garrison is scoring 53.0 ppg against defenses that allow 31.3 per game. Or 21.7 more points than those defenses normally allow. Garrison is holding teams that score on average 27.2 per game to just 9.4 - or 17.8 fewer points than those offenses generally score. This combined gives Garrison a total swing of +39.5 points. Meaning this is how much Garrison swings their opponents out of their average game. Timpson wins their games by an average of 38.8 points. Since Garrison's swing is 39.5, then they swing Timpson's average margin of victory into their favor...and then another 0.7 points in Garrison's favor. That predicts a Garrison win - by 1 point (36-35 is the prediction). This is if Garrison does to Timpson what they normally do to their opponents. Timpson is scoring 53.2 ppg against defenses that give up 24.8 per game (28.4 more) and holding teams that average 39.9 ppg to 14.3 (25.6 fewer). This is a total swing of +54.0 points. Garrison wins their games by an average of 43.6 points, so applying Timpson's swing to this, it predicts a Timpson win by 10-11. (38-27 is the prediction). This is if Timpson does to Garrison what they normally do to their opponents. The average of these two games comes out to a final prediction of : Timpson - 37 Garrison - 32

I'm not really comparing HG to anyone. I'm just going by what they have done to who they've played. I guess the point is that if you're holding your opponents to a combined score of zero, it doesn't really matter how good they (your opponents) are. Perhaps they haven't really been tested yet - - that's certainly possible, but you can't ask a team to hold their opponents to fewer than zero, so either way, they have taken care of business on that end - regardless of the quality of the opponent. I understand, the "yeah, but they haven't played anyone" argument, or I know where it's coming from, but again, you can't hold your opponents to a combined total of less than zero. Again - I'm not crowning anyone; I'm just pointing out something interesting to me. As far as Pigskin ratings go, Honey Grove's opponents have an average rating of about 104. I'm assuming you are referring to Cooper. They have a rating of about 141. So on paper, clearly the best team Honey Grove will face up to that point. Looks to be their biggest test for sure. Cooper also has a bye this week, so they will have had a couple of weeks to prepare for HG. Honey Grove's opponents have averaged 28 points per game. Cooper is averaging 50 ppg. So clearly the highest-scoring team they will have faced.

Again, I'm not crowning them champions, and it very well may end next Friday. Still, the fact will remain that for the 2023 Texas high school football season, Honey Grove will be the last team in the entire state of Texas to give up a point. Losing next week won't change that. All I'm doing is acknowledging that giving up zero points this far into the season is an amazing feat. Something you clearly agree with. That's literally my point. It's noteworthy. Honey Grove is not a team I have any affiliation with. I don't know anything about their program. I've never followed them. I go through points and scores because it's a hobby of mine to predict scores in games, things like that and in the course of going that, I noticed a team that had yet to give up any points all year - - so I got curious and looked into it. I was impressed, so I shared. Figured someone else might appreciate it. There is a team in 2AD1 right now that is the last team in the entire state of Texas across all classifications that has yet to give up a point - AND - has the largest average margin of victory in the entire state of Texas across all classifications. That's pretty neat for them. I have already acknowledged that there is likely a lot of luck involved. The main reason I even brought this up was not to boast or brag or claim this team was gonna win it all. They are the last team in the state that has a zero in the points allowed column. I figured people might be interested in that and follow them to see how long they can keep the streak going. Or maybe wish it would end. Either way, it's interesting to me. That is the only reason I brought it up.

I don't know anything about how the coaches at Honey Grove handle blow outs, but I generally assume that teams that are blowing out everyone put the backups in like everyone else does. I'm not trying to make the argument that Honey Grove is better or worse than anyone else - - or what they would do with any other schedule. The fact remains that they are the only team out of 1,501 teams in the state of Texas that have yet to give up a point. You bring up Garrison, so I'll just throw it out there - Garrison is beating their opponents by an average score of 53-9. Garrison's opponents have an average rating of 111. This just a tad better than Honey Grove's opponents whose average rating is 106. This is pretty much as close to an even schedule as you'll see. So, I don't think Garrison has had a considerably tougher schedule; just a marginally better one. In context of the rest of the state, pretty much an even strength of schedule. It's worth noting that HG is beating their opponents by an average score of 55 points. In other words - - their average score is 55-0. This against a schedule that is comparable to Garrison's. By the way, that 55-point average margin of victory is also good enough for the highest average margin of victory in all of Texas across all classifications both public and private. It is again - if nothing else - worthy of noting. It's not like they are playing bottom-of-the-barrel teams. Again, their strength of schedule is on par with the team you bring up in comparison.

I don't actually put any personal feelings into these predictions, and of course there are nuances that aren't picked up by my method. My predictions are pure math, and 40-0 is what comes out when I put in the numbers. Many times, I'll put in the numbers - and what comes out contradicts what my gut says. Still, I can't help but be impressed with a team that has played 5 games and has yet to give up a single point. I think there's something to be said about that. As far as strength of schedule is concerned, according to Pigskin, the average rating of Cooper opponents is about 115. HG opponents are at 106. So, on average, Cooper's opponents are only about 9 points better than Honey Grove opponents. When the range between the worst team in 2AD1 (71 per Pigskin) and the best team in 2AD1 (158 per Pigskin) is 87 points, 9 points is not much. In other words, it's not like Honey Grove has been playing trash while Cooper has been playing the cream of the crop. Their opponents are more or less comparable. Either way, it is really hard to play five full games and not give up a point. Like I said, they are the ONLY team in the entire state of Texas across all classifications - public or private - that have yet to give up a point. I'm sure we can agree that there are plenty of teams out there that have FAR weaker schedules. Over 1,500 teams and only 1 hasn't given up a point. They certainly don't have the weakest schedule in the entire state of Texas across all classifications - or anywhere near it. Almost certainly some luck - - because no matter how dominant your defense is, the bottom line is it's hard to play 240 minutes of football and give up a grand total of zero points. Even if it's just a fluke - - it's still something worth mentioning in my opinion. I'm not crowning them with anything; I'm just appreciating the feat. Let me put it this way - - the average number of points given up for the season by the number one ranked defense (for points allowed) in each classification in Texas is 33.4 points. That's the total points allowed by the NUMBER ONE defense in each or their respective classes. Honey Grove has allowed zero. I don't know what Honey Grove is gonna do in the playoffs. I'm just interested because their situation is interesting to me; that being the only team left out of 1500+ that hasn't allowed a point all year. I think it merits a follow. That's all.

By my count, Honey Grove is the only team left in the entire state of Texas - - - including all classifications - 1A thru 6A, and all private schools - - - that has STILL not given up a single point all season. Grand total allowed : ZERO. Not sure why we are skipping ahead week here to the Cooper game, but going by the numbers as they stand today, I get a 40-0 Honey Grove win. I actually have Cooper getting a few points, but I'm sticking with zero to keep the trend alive! This is REALLY impressive. It's hard to get this deep into the season without giving up ANYTHING - even if you have the weakest schedule in the state. It's pretty insane. Either way, if nothing else, Honey Grove will be the very last team in the entire state of Texas across all classifications - public and private - to allow their opponent to score. They are the last team standing with a big fat zero in the "points allowed" column. Just impressive. By my count, including all 11-man and 6-man classifications, public and private, there are 1,501 high school football teams in the state of Texas. 1,500 of them have allowed points. Honey Grove has not. Cooper will be coming in with the highest-scoring offense HG has faced, so it's possible they give up their first points of the season in this one. Alba-Golden was the highest scoring offense with 42.7 per game, and Honey Grove held them to......let me check my notes.....ah right. ZERO. Cooper is coming in averaging 45.3 per game. I'll be following this one.

Why? The classification a team plays in has zilch to do with how competitive they are (or are not). It's based purely on the number of students enrolled in the school. If you have 2,000 students from which to pick the best 40-50 players to fill your roster, that team is way more likely to be better than if you only have 50 kids....so you don't even try out for the team. You just make it. This is how we separate classifications. Is it possible for a team in a lower class to blow out a team in a higher class? Of course. You can't possibly realign all teams based on how good they are. It changes year by year - and in some cases, game by game, and the reasons one team is better than the other are not easy to quantify. ENROLLMENT is easily quantifiable and is certainly a factor, and that's how we separate classifications. What you're suggestion is basically punishing dedication and hard work. Oh, your coach is too good? He can't coach in 3A anymore. Not allowed. See how absurd that sounds? Oh, your team runs a lot to stay in shape? You can't compete against these teams that don't work as hard. Hopefully you get the idea. The idea is that teaching kids that hard work pays off is a good one. What you're suggesting punishes hard work. You're telling them that the harder they work, the harder you want to make it for them to succeed. Meanwhile, those kids that don't work as hard get a sort of free pass because you've disallowed competition. They don't have to compete against teams that work harder than they do. I guess they'll have to learn the benefit of hard work some other way...

Gunter 42 Bells 0 Halftime

First district game for Gunter and Bells - and it looks to be the toughest district matchup for both teams. It's hard to judge the strength of opponents at this point since they are spread over different divisions and classes. Going by Pigskin ratings, the strength of schedule up to this point between Gunter and Bells seems to be pretty similar. Gunter comes in averaging 49.8 ppg against defenses that give up 36.1 ppg on average. So, Gunter is scoring 13.7 more than their opponents allow on average. Gunter's opponents are averaging 27.9 ppg, and Gunter is holding them to 10.0 ppg. Gunter holding opponents to 17.9 fewer points than they average. Bells averages 44.0 ppg against defenses that allow 31.8 a game, so they are scoring 12.2 more points than their opponents allow on average. Bells opponents score 27.8 per game, and Bells holds those opponents to 20.5 a game, or 7.3 fewer points. Combine these "swing" numbers, and you get a total swing of +31.6 for Gunter, +19.5 for Bells. Gunter comes in ranked #2 in 3A D2 while Bells is #10 - this also according to Pigskin ratings. I get a pretty good game with Gunter coming out on top, 38-24.

Yes, the numbers include predistrict games. I like the idea of doing first half vs second half, but it would be tedious. Both teams generally have solid leads by halftime and shut it down in the second half so I don't think it would change much anyway. I may look into it.

Looks to be a good one. Overall, Gunter is scoring 47.9 per game against teams that allow 24.8 per game. Gunter is allowing 7.0 per game to teams that score 33.5 per game. Gunter's swing is a +49.6. Canadian is scoring 52.9 against teams that allow 23.4 on average. They are allowing 16.4 per game to teams that score 27.6 per game. Canadian's swing is +40.7. Using these numbers, I get a 39-32 Gunter victory. Taking Gunter's three worst "swing" games vs Canadian's best three, I get a Canadian win 42-14. Gunter's three best vs Canadian's three worst, I get Gunter in a 42-0 game. I consider that the range of possibilities. Assuming both teams bring their A game, I expect a battle. Gunter on top by a score or two. Though you can also consider that both teams throw game plans out the window when they meet, so who knows? Always one I look forward to. The way I look at it is - if you're playing Canadian, you've had a good season. I would assume you guys feel the same way in the last few years.

Everything is good with me! I appreciate the concern though. I'm having trouble logging in, but luckily, my cell phone is still logged in. I might need to get an admin to help. In this one - and including all games played, Gunter averages 49.5 ppg vs defenses that give up 26.3 per game, and they allow 7.0 ppg against teams that score 33.3 on average - for a swing of +49.5. the Gunter average and swing numbers both being 49.5 is just coincidence. Holliday is scoring 36.0 ppg vs defenses that give up 26.3 per game. Their opponents average 27.4 per game and they hold them to an average of 9.1 per game. Gunter's "swing" is a +49.5, and Holliday's is a +28.0. My spreadsheet spits out a prediction of 32-14 for Gunter. I expect a battle. The Holliday/Gunter game almost feels like an extension of district at this point. Nice venue we are playing in today - albeit hard to get into; especially with the festivities going on today I hear.

40-6 Final

1) No. I dont know exactly how/why Gunter got that game. That's why I said what I said. Because I didn't know. 2) You didn't actually explain how/why Gunter got that game specifically, just why they needed one. I had an idea of why they needed one. I just didn't know why they got THAT one. Not that I am owed any kind of explanation - because that wasn't even remotely the point of my mentioning it nor am I owed any explanation for it. I just did not know. The point of my even mentioning it was : 3) I'm not complaining about the team or the game; I'm playfully complaining about the distance we have to travel - actually making fun of my own complaining about a single game in an effort to acknowledge how far Canadian has to travel on a regular basis. It has zilch to do with Bishop. My reference to not knowing how we got that game was merely in passing - because I didn't know - despite your assumption otherwise. I get my information from people far more informed than me. You're one of them. Example : the first I heard of the Sherman QB moving to Gunter was from an article you wrote. That's the level of in-the-know I am at.

I'm sure it is. Just messing around.

Austin BBQ - gross!