RMSSW

Pardon my ignorance, but is it for sure that old 3A/new 4A will split into divisions for the regular season next year? Was that voted on and decided?

If Padilla's 2014 predictions are correct, then the following classification changes would take place: 5A to old 4A/new 5A: A&M Consolidated Abilene Abilene Cooper Lufkin Temple 4A to old 5A/new 6A: Montgomery Trophy Club Nelson 4A to old 3A/new 4A (this is the huge one): Bay City Beeville Jones Castroville Medina Valley Corpus Christi Calallen Corpus Christi Tuloso-Midway Dumas Floresville Greenville Hereford Jacksonville Lindale Longview Pine Tree Lumberton Marble Falls Orange Little Cypress-Mauriceville Port Lavaca Calhoun San Elizario Sulphur Springs Terrell Uvalde 3A to old 4A/new 5A: College Station Frisco Lone Star (I assume) 3A to old 2A/new 3A: Hillsboro Lyford Pollok Central Presidio Rockdale Yoakum 2A to old 3A/new 4A: Caddo Mills Salado 2A to old 1A/new 2A: Abernathy Bloomington Clarksville Deweyville El Maton Tidehaven Floydada Frankston Garrison Refugio Sanford-Fritch 1A to old 2A/new 3A: Ben Bolt-Palito Blanco Harper Itasca Joaquin Simms Bowie

Ah yes, was forgetting that A&M Consolidated didn't drop last time, so they're sure to this time with the split. I'd also like to add to my original predictions: - BOTH Abilene ISD high schools will "drop" from 5A to old 4A/new 5A, and - Freeport Brazosport will "drop" from 4A to old 3A/new 4A If you know about Dallas ISD, what about Pinkston and Seagoville? Will they drop too?

Ah, but it doesn't matter what they turned in last October, it matters what they turn in THIS October. :-) We'll see.

Well, I didn't say I thought Longview would drop. Lufkin... like I said, it's all about numbers and history. Here are their numbers from the last seven alignments: 2000: 2286 2002: 2196 2004: 2218 2006: 2441 2008: 2303 2010: 2201 2012: 2127 That's a total drop of 159 since 2000, for an average of 27 each realignment. Even if they're right at 2100 next time, you know that 2090 number is going to go up a little.

These are based strictly on past enrollments and what the classification cutoffs have been, all since the year 2000. No personal judgment calls except in one case, just numbers and history. I did not particularly attempt to include schools in multi-school districts, with a couple of exceptions. 5A "down" to old 4A/new 5A: Lufkin. MAYBE one of the Abilene ISD schools. Does anyone know if Mission Sharyland (which is splitting in 2014) will go down this realignment or in 2016? 4A up to old 5A/new 6A: Montgomery 4A "down" to old 3A/new 4A: Beeville Jones 3A up to old 4A/new 5A: Frisco Lone Star. PROBABLY Lubbock-Cooper and Kaufman. 3A "down" to old 2A/new 3A: Hillsboro, Lyford, Mineola, Pollok Central, Presidio, Rockdale, Shallowater, Yoakum 2A up to old 3A/new 4A: Caddo Mills, Salado 2A "down" to old 1A/new 2A: Abernathy, Bogata Rivercrest, Canadian, Clarksville, Deweyville, Garrison, Groveton, Moody, Olton, Sanford-Fritch. MAYBE Bloomington, El Maton Tidehaven, Frankston, Refugio. 1A up to old 2A/new 3A: Ben Bolt-Palito Blanco, Itasca, Joaquin Comments, critiques, and your own predictions welcome!

Any chance SS drops down to 4A-Div 1?

Any word on the numbers for these on-the-bubble schools? Buna Melissa Mineola Commerce Van Alstyne

Mabank won't be going up to 4A. Kaufman yes, but I would be shocked if Mabank does.

Well... in 2000, 870 out of 2175 students at Longview HS were white (40%). In 2010, only 542 out of 2083 were (26%). I'd call that a fair amount of white flight. The percentage of Hispanic students also increased from 9% to 25% in that same timeframe. Only 1422 students took the Reading TAKS test at Longview HS last year (freshmen, sophomores, and juniors). Multiply that times 1.33 to make up for the lost grade, add a bit and you still only get about 2000 students. They may even be a bit bigger than that, but even if their enrollment remains steady I think the 5A cutoff may overtake them.

THSfanatic, is it considered likely in Texarkana that T-High will go up to 5A? I know their numbers have gone up a lot in the last few years but I wasn't sure if that growth could be sustained. What's the buzz around town? If they do up, who are they likely to be in a district with? If they go up and Longview goes back down (entirely possible) they won't have a district game less than two and a half hours away... it'll be like West Texas!

Temple and Abilene are both on the very small end of 5A (under 2100), and neither is growing, so I'm pretty sure they'll slip down. A&M Cons is splitting in 2012, so they'll lose about a third of their students, which would put them at about 1800. Now what I'm not sure about is whether that split - which won't have happened yet when they turn in their number this fall - will be taken into account when deciding UIL alignment purposes. If not, they'll stay in 5A, but with 4A numbers. I should also note that Tomball and Georgetown are also only "on the bubble" because they're splitting (this year).

Definitely moving up to 5A Rockwall HS Pflugerville Hendrickson Carrollton Turner Lake Travis Waco Midway Richardson Pearce 4A/5A bubble Smithson Valley Lubbock Coronado Copperas Cove Amarillo HS McKinney HS Fort Bend Dulles Carrollton Creekview Austin Anderson Rockwall-Heath Lubbock HS Eagle Pass Winn Amarillo Tascosa San Marcos Tomball Georgetown Definitely moving down to 4A Mission HS Lubbock Monterey Temple Abilene HS Leander HS McAllen Memorial Houston Milby Longview Fort Bend Bush Houston Westbury South Garland Pflugerville Connally Richmond Foster San Antonio Highlands Lamar Consolidated A&M Consolidated Definitely moving up to 4A Prosper Lindale Lucas Lovejoy Fort Worth Polytechnic Kaufman 3A/4A bubble Kingsville King Beeville Jones Stephenville North Forney Alvarado Lampasas Fredericksburg Definitely moving down to 3A Springtown Dallas Seagoville Hidalgo Houston Sterling El Campo Kilgore Houston Wheatley Houston Worthing Dallas Lincoln La Marque Definitely moving up to 3A Buna 2A/3A bubble Mathis Salado Amarillo River Road Shallowater Commerce Caddo Mills Mineola Clyde Tatum Presidio Bowie Lamesa Hillsboro Godley Melissa Krum Definitely moving down to 2A Goliad Pilot Point Van Alstyne Kirbyville Mount Vernon Eustace San Diego Whitesboro Whitney Brownfield Definitely moving down to 1A (haven't delved too much into this one yet) Ozona Anson San Augustine

Clarksville is also in this situation (fell down to 1A last time, had been 3A until about 8-10 years ago). There are actually very few schools that have fallen two classifications over the years... Big Spring is one (went down to 3A last time, was once 5A). Lamesa will also probably join this club next year (was once 4A, now likely to go 2A). Not trying to open a can of worms, but I would assume increasing white flight to districts like Pine Tree, Spring Hill, White Oak, etc...

My predictions - based on research and calculations: Definitely moving up to 5A Rockwall HS Pflugerville Hendrickson Carrollton Turner Lake Travis Waco Midway JJ Pearce 4A/5A bubble Smithson Valley Lubbock Coronado Copperas Cove Amarillo HS McKinney HS Fort Bend Dulles Carrollton Creekview Austin Anderson Rockwall-Heath Lubbock HS Eagle Pass Winn Amarillo Tascosa San Marcos Tomball Georgetown Definitely moving down to 4A Mission HS Lubbock Monterey Temple Abilene HS Leander HS McAllen Memorial Houston Milby Longview Fort Bend Bush Houston Westbury South Garland Pflugerville Connally Richmond Foster San Antonio Highlands Lamar Consolidated A&M Consolidated Definitely moving up to 4A Prosper Lindale Lucas Lovejoy Fort Worth Polytechnic Kaufman 3A/4A bubble Kingsville King Beeville Jones Stephenville North Forney Alvarado Lampasas Fredericksburg Definitely moving down to 3A Springtown Dallas Seagoville Hidalgo Houston Sterling El Campo Kilgore Houston Wheatley Houston Worthing Dallas Lincoln La Marque Definitely moving up to 3A Buna 2A/3A bubble Mathis Salado Amarillo River Road Shallowater Commerce Caddo Mills Mineola Clyde Tatum Presidio Bowie Lamesa Hillsboro Godley Melissa Krum (sorry, don't know why these are spaced weirdly) Definitely moving down to 2A Goliad Pilot Point Van Alstyne Kirbyville Mount Vernon Eustace San Diego Whitesboro Whitney Brownfield Definitely moving down to 1A (haven't delved too much into this one yet) Ozona Anson San Augustine