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Mavradamus and some 4A reaignment predictions


Mavchamp

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The only thing cloudier than a summer day in LA is predicting what the UIL will do with realignment.

 

However.....I.....Mavradamus will make a few predictions:

 

1. John Tyler will not drop to 4A. Being a 2 HS district will allow TISD to keep JT in 5A even with 4A enrollment. Hard to argue with them playing in the 5A region II championship this weekend.

 

2. Henderson will drop to 3A..... ouch.

 

Things get fuzzier......

 

3. It appears Kilgore and Lindale are headed to 3A as well.

 

This leaves 14-4A with only 3 schools. Now what?

 

Welcome to East Texas' ten team 4A district!!!

 

1. Longview

2. Texas High

3. Marshall

4. Nacogdoches

5. Pine Tree

6. Mt. Pleasant

7. Whitehouse

8. Jacksonville

9. Hallsville

10. Wildcard (SS if they dont go West, Kilgore or Lindale if they dont drop to 3A)

 

Sulphur Springs will be jettisoned to the DFW district of Terrell, Mesquite Poteet, Red Oak, Forney, West Mesquite, and Lancaster. With Mabank headed back to 3A, SS will replace them. SS will actually cut down on travel with 4 of their opponents just a little over an hour away. So the Wildcats have headed to the big city.

 

The only thing i think could derail the ten team district is Longview moving back to 5A, leaving a 9 team schools. Longview moving up is doubtful unless the UIL lowers the 5A bracket for the first time in 10 or so alignments (more than 20 years).

 

Any other ideas out there....?

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The only thing cloudier than a summer day in LA is predicting what the UIL will do with realignment.

 

However.....I.....Mavradamus will make a few predictions:

 

1. John Tyler will not drop to 4A. Being a 2 HS district will allow TISD to keep JT in 5A even with 4A enrollment. Hard to argue with them playing in the 5A region II championship this weekend.

 

2. Henderson will drop to 3A..... ouch.

 

Things get fuzzier......

 

3. It appears Kilgore and Lindale are headed to 3A as well.

 

This leaves 14-4A with only 3 schools. Now what?

 

Welcome to East Texas' ten team 4A district!!!

 

1. Longview

2. Texas High

3. Marshall

4. Nacogdoches

5. Pine Tree

6. Mt. Pleasant

7. Whitehouse

9. Jacksonville

10. Hallsville

 

Sulphur Springs will be jettisoned to the DFW district of Terrell, Mesquite Poteet, Red Oak, Forney, West Mesquite, and Lancaster. With Mabank headed back to 3A, SS will replace them. SS will actually cut down on travel with 4 of their opponents just a little over an hour away. So the Wildcats have headed to the big city.

 

The only thing i think could derail the ten team district is Longview moving back to 5A, leaving a 9 team schools. Longview moving up is doubtful unless the UIL lowers the 5A bracket for the first time in 10 or so alignments (more than 20 years).

 

Any other ideas out there....?

 

Looks like you left out #8 making it a 9 team district as shown.

 

 

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Looks like you left out #8 making it a 9 team district as shown.

 

 

Ah...good catch!

 

The extra team would either be SS if they didn't move, or Lindale/Kilgore if they ended up on the bubble.

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I agree that JT's enrollment (2048) will very likely place them in 4A. They would have to petition to remain in 5A. But my understanding is that they cannot request to play up unless they are in a multiple school district of eight or more schools (or to avoid extreme travel). So my guess is that JT drops to 4A.

 

I agree that Henderson will drop to 3A and that Kilgore and Lindale probably will too. The creation of a large ET 4A district makes sense - except for one thing ...

 

Class 4A has 32 total districts (8 per region). This is very convenient for playoff brackets and UIL will maintain this arrangement. Nac, WH and Jack can't simply be absorbed into another district. Something will have to be done to keep the 8 district alignment. Most likely seems to be a re-shuffling of districts 13-16 which I agree would send some ET teams west to the metroplex for district play. One downside of losing 4A schools in ET is that some of the remaining schools will have increased travel.

 

The upcoming realignment may be the continuation of a trend. Years ago there was a 5A district in ET; now there are only a few 5A schools. 4A would be next. This time, we may see a drop from two 4A ET districts to one. And several of the remaining schools are on the smaller side of 4A, so they could drop in future realignments.

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I agree that JT's enrollment (2048) will very likely place them in 4A. They would have to petition to remain in 5A. But my understanding is that they cannot request to play up unless they are in a multiple school district of eight or more schools (or to avoid extreme travel). So my guess is that JT drops to 4A.

 

8 or more? Where on earth did you hear that?

 

I was always told a school district with multiple schools could request up, whether it be just 2 schools or 8.

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8 or more? Where on earth did you hear that?

 

I was always told a school district with multiple schools could request up, whether it be just 2 schools or 8.

 

Got it from UIL's procedures for the last re-alignment (http://www.uil.utexas.edu/policy/pdf/08rea..._procedures.pdf):

 

6. Any school may request to be elevated one conference for extreme travel or in multiple-high school districts of eight or more schools, provided notification is submitted to the League office simultaneously with enrollment figures

 

7.c. (3) Multiple High School Districts with Schools in Different Conferences: A multiple high school district of eight or more schools may opt to have one or more of its schools elevated one conference if it wants its schools to be assigned to the same UIL district. (Note: 7.c. (5) says exceptions may be made if agreed upon by the participating schools and approved by UIL.)

 

These procedures were for the 2008-2010 re-alignment. I don't know if they apply to previous or future re-alignments.

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Got it from UIL's procedures for the last re-alignment (http://www.uil.utexas.edu/policy/pdf/08rea..._procedures.pdf):

 

6. Any school may request to be elevated one conference for extreme travel or in multiple-high school districts of eight or more schools, provided notification is submitted to the League office simultaneously with enrollment figures

 

7.c. (3) Multiple High School Districts with Schools in Different Conferences: A multiple high school district of eight or more schools may opt to have one or more of its schools elevated one conference if it wants its schools to be assigned to the same UIL district. (Note: 7.c. (5) says exceptions may be made if agreed upon by the participating schools and approved by UIL.)

 

These procedures were for the 2008-2010 re-alignment. I don't know if they apply to previous or future re-alignments.

Mavchamp don't forget Royse City from what I hear we may be in east texas this round.

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So Mavchamp, answer me this. With todays economy, bad or getting better, will this affect any outcome of the changes. When fuel got up to 5 bucks a gal for deisel, I wondered how school districts could even afford to have athletics due to travel. It can still happen again and prob will.

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So Mavchamp, answer me this. With todays economy, bad or getting better, will this affect any outcome of the changes. When fuel got up to 5 bucks a gal for deisel, I wondered how school districts could even afford to have athletics due to travel. It can still happen again and prob will.

 

Simple...we save money by dropping the less important classes like English, Math and Reading! lol

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As long as the Metro areas of the State continue to grow, this trend of downsizing from classification to classification will continue..not sure how it all shakes out, but i'm sure glad i don't have to live in West Texas...can only imagine how much fun that drive from San Angelo to Amarillo must be..especially after a loss

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Apparently Marshall already dropped math based on Mavchamp's numbering system. LOL!

 

 

LOL!!! That made me spew my drink.

 

I have a confession though....

 

I actually graduated from Whitehouse....but I wanted to claim a winning team when I was in HS....so I adopted Marshall.

 

FINALLY!!! THE SECRET IS OUT!

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LOL!!! That made me spew my drink.

 

I have a confession though....

 

I actually graduated from Whitehouse....but I wanted to claim a winning team when I was in HS....so I adopted Marshall.

 

FINALLY!!! THE SECRET IS OUT!

 

 

Man, this is bigger than the Tiger Woods scandal! Mavchamp is from Whitehouse! I am in shocked disblelief.

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When fuel got up to 5 bucks a gal for deisel, I wondered how school districts could even afford to have athletics due to travel. It can still happen again and prob will.

 

 

Why would gas go back to $5 a gallon? Bush is not the President anymore. :happy65:

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yeah even worse Obama is.... He has to find some way to pay for the war/healthcare

 

Y`all cried about the HMO private healthcare when Bush was in office . Now you cry about public health care with Obama. Yall cried about the old realignment and you will cry about the new one.

 

.....I think yall just want to cry. :crybaby:

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The only thing cloudier than a summer day in LA is predicting what the UIL will do with realignment.

 

However.....I.....Mavradamus will make a few predictions:

 

1. John Tyler will not drop to 4A. Being a 2 HS district will allow TISD to keep JT in 5A even with 4A enrollment. Hard to argue with them playing in the 5A region II championship this weekend.

 

2. Henderson will drop to 3A..... ouch.

 

Things get fuzzier......

 

3. It appears Kilgore and Lindale are headed to 3A as well.

 

This leaves 14-4A with only 3 schools. Now what?

 

Welcome to East Texas' ten team 4A district!!!

 

1. Longview

2. Texas High

3. Marshall

4. Nacogdoches

5. Pine Tree

6. Mt. Pleasant

7. Whitehouse

8. Jacksonville

9. Hallsville

10. Wildcard (SS if they dont go West, Kilgore or Lindale if they dont drop to 3A)

 

Sulphur Springs will be jettisoned to the DFW district of Terrell, Mesquite Poteet, Red Oak, Forney, West Mesquite, and Lancaster. With Mabank headed back to 3A, SS will replace them. SS will actually cut down on travel with 4 of their opponents just a little over an hour away. So the Wildcats have headed to the big city.

 

The only thing i think could derail the ten team district is Longview moving back to 5A, leaving a 9 team schools. Longview moving up is doubtful unless the UIL lowers the 5A bracket for the first time in 10 or so alignments (more than 20 years).

 

Any other ideas out there....?

I've heard this from too many reliable sources. Longview is going back to 5A. Mark it down. Count on it. It's gonna happen!!!

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I've heard this from too many reliable sources. Longview is going back to 5A. Mark it down. Count on it. It's gonna happen!!!

 

Really? This means that the 5A enrollment cutoff will have to remain the same or decrease. That would buck quite a trend. It has INcreased for the last nine straight re-alignments.

 

If the cutoff drops to, say 2000, as many as 25 schools could move from 4A to 5A. UIL must really be planning to shake things up because the effect of whatever they do in 5A will trickle down to the lower classifications.

 

I won't be shocked if it happens, but I'm not expecting it.

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