Carthage and Gilmer overrated?

[TheRedBaron]

Most every high school team is overrated or underrated every season. This is because we base our expectations on the previous year, most of the time. Sure, players still on the team are talked about, but until the first game is played nobody really knows. Scrimmages are a good showcase of talent, but some coaches use scrimmages to figure out how to fill key positions that have not been filled yet, or to determine which kid he wants for the spot when he was been wavering between two or more for that spot. They aren't the best way to measure a season or rate a team, but they definitely give a little insight.

 

The problem with high school football is that the majority of the players on championship teams graduate almost every year, so basing predictions of this season on the last couple of seasons, or even more foolishly the last ten seasons, just doesn't work.

[greatwhite]

Texas is sold on the LB for Carthage. Have you ever seen him play ?

 

 

Seen him play last year all the time. He has perfect size is why UT got him, D1 looks for size. IMO He is a good player, don't get me wrong I just don't know if he is great. Just because your a top recruit don't mean you will pan out. Look at number 1 picks in the NFL draft like Russell the ex raider he was no good, but yet he was the number 1 pick. Also Thompson wasn't the best defensive player on his team last year. When you look at Edmond from DField there was no doubt he was the best on that defense. Thompson got to play behind the 3A Defensive Player of the Year Deshun Williams who took up 2 or 3 lineman every down. IMO I thought Williams was the best defensive player then one of the ends #90 then I thought Thompson and another LB were bout the same. The other one just didn't have near the size.

[RideUmRough07]

wellll.... I really don't know what to say. I really thought we hated Carthage the most, but honestly, I think most people from Center acknowledge and respect Carthage for what they have done. Still hate'um, but I'm not gonna sit here and try to convince myself that Carthage is a pushover.

 

Seems like the 4a, and former 4a schools from Carthage's old district are pretty jealous and maybe even in denial about how good Carthage is.

 

I said the line of Carthage would be weaker this year. So I'm not surprised by what was said from the scrimmage. It will take some time for the new linemen to get comfortable playing on that 1st string varsity level. Sure they got quite a bit of playing time, but only after other teams were beaten down and defeated and they got to come in fresh. I think it will be a different scenario this year. Carthage probably dominate teams like they did last year and I think the 1st string will play almost all of every game. That being said I still see them winning at least 7 or 8 games this year.

[TheStudd]

Your not overrated until you get beat. Your not underrated until you win. really and truly, nobody will know the answer to if a team is under/overrated until the season is over and the games are won or lost.

[Topcat]

No!! Next question...

[GOLEE]

Ws and Ls speak for themselves. Good programs like these find a way to take the talent they have and keep on keepin on. Until someone can dethrone these guys as district champs, and...... why wouldnt they be rated so high.

[Golfingnut]

Most every high school team is overrated or underrated every season. This is because we base our expectations on the previous year, most of the time. Sure, players still on the team are talked about, but until the first game is played nobody really knows. Scrimmages are a good showcase of talent, but some coaches use scrimmages to figure out how to fill key positions that have not been filled yet, or to determine which kid he wants for the spot when he was been wavering between two or more for that spot. They aren't the best way to measure a season or rate a team, but they definitely give a little insight.

 

The problem with high school football is that the majority of the players on championship teams graduate almost every year, so basing predictions of this season on the last couple of seasons, or even more foolishly the last ten seasons, just doesn't work.

 

 

Best indication of what a team will do, in any situation, is what they have done in the past. So yes, I can predict the kind of team someone like Gilmer puts on the field, because of what they have done the last 10 + years. They have been in this situation before, so therefore what makes you think they won't respond the same way they always have?

 

 

 

[catluv]

wellll.... I really don't know what to say. I really thought we hated Carthage the most, but honestly, I think most people from Center acknowledge and respect Carthage for what they have done. Still hate'um, but I'm not gonna sit here and try to convince myself that Carthage is a pushover.

 

Seems like the 4a, and former 4a schools from Carthage's old district are pretty jealous and maybe even in denial about how good Carthage is.

 

I said the line of Carthage would be weaker this year. So I'm not surprised by what was said from the scrimmage. It will take some time for the new linemen to get comfortable playing on that 1st string varsity level. Sure they got quite a bit of playing time, but only after other teams were beaten down and defeated and they got to come in fresh. I think it will be a different scenario this year. Carthage probably dominate teams like they did last year and I think the 1st string will play almost all of every game. That being said I still see them winning at least 7 or 8 games this year.

 

RideUm,

 

Thank you for your straight forward and truthful post about your feelings as a Center fan toward Carthage. I know when we first began playing each other again recently there was a lot of, let's say....excitement from the Center faithful, which is perfectly understandable. Now that we've gone through a couple of seasons and played each other a couple of times and had so many exchanges here on SDC I too believe there is mutual respect from Center to Carthage and from Carthage to Center.

 

I appreciate the respect and honor you've shown my Bulldogs while maintaining your disgust from us at the same time.

 

That's a good rivalry right there!

:notworthy:

 

[Muffin22]

The reason why Carthage fans are so quiet they have nothing to prove to anyone they have BACK to BACK STATE CHAMPIONS!!! yall don't, and let's remember these are kids out there playing football so let's not down talk anyones kids.

 

 

[TheRedBaron]

Best indication of what a team will do, in any situation, is what they have done in the past. So yes, I can predict the kind of team someone like Gilmer puts on the field, because of what they have done the last 10 + years. They have been in this situation before, so therefore what makes you think they won't respond the same way they always have?

 

So, you will then gauge the performance of kids who weren't even around 10 years ago, on the performance of a team 10 years ago? Do you know how ridiculous that is?

 

See, I have had this problem with the stat slinging I see here in regards to high school football. The teams completely change every 1 - 4 years. So what a team did in, say 2005, means absolutely nothing in respect to a 2010 team. The only thing you have to go on in inference.

 

You can gauge a coach's performance on what he does with similar talent. However, that is what makes your statement even more ludicrous, since Gladewater has a new coach. Even with the same coach, something changes with every new mix of kids: drive, heart, determination, and work ethic.

 

My point was that teams change regularly in high school football. A team from 5 years ago is completely irrelevant to a team today. Shoot, most of the time it is about 2 years. I don't say much about it until someone comes up with a silly thread like this.

 

We don't know whether a team is overrated or underrated after the first scrimmage is played. Just how many teams are exactly the same as they were last year? Not very many, and the ones that are will be graduating their teams this year.

 

 

[Topcat]

So, you will then gauge the performance of kids who weren't even around 10 years ago, on the performance of a team 10 years ago? Do you know how ridiculous that is?

 

See, I have had this problem with the stat slinging I see here in regards to high school football. The teams completely change every 1 - 4 years. So what a team did in, say 2005, means absolutely nothing in respect to a 2010 team. The only thing you have to go on in inference.

 

You can gauge a coach's performance on what he does with similar talent. However, that is what makes your statement even more ludicrous, since Gladewater has a new coach. Even with the same coach, something changes with every new mix of kids: drive, heart, determination, and work ethic.

 

My point was that teams change regularly in high school football. A team from 5 years ago is completely irrelevant to a team today. Shoot, most of the time it is about 2 years. I don't say much about it until someone comes up with a silly thread like this.

 

We don't know whether a team is overrated or underrated after the first scrimmage is played. Just how many teams are exactly the same as they were last year? Not very many, and the ones that are will be graduating their teams this year.

Excellent post!!! It will take a few weeks to evaluate what is in these 2 teams future and anyone who puts much faith in pre season hype and polls, probably reads the comics for their weather forecast.

[LIONMAN]

Excellent post!!! It will take a few weeks to evaluate what is in these 2 teams future and anyone who puts much faith in pre season hype and polls, probably reads the comics for their weather forecast.

 

 

There is nothing wrong with reading comics for the weather forecast. Dont hate.

[blackflag79]

So, you will then gauge the performance of kids who weren't even around 10 years ago, on the performance of a team 10 years ago? Do you know how ridiculous that is?

 

See, I have had this problem with the stat slinging I see here in regards to high school football. The teams completely change every 1 - 4 years. So what a team did in, say 2005, means absolutely nothing in respect to a 2010 team. The only thing you have to go on in inference.

 

You can gauge a coach's performance on what he does with similar talent. However, that is what makes your statement even more ludicrous, since Gladewater has a new coach. Even with the same coach, something changes with every new mix of kids: drive, heart, determination, and work ethic.

 

My point was that teams change regularly in high school football. A team from 5 years ago is completely irrelevant to a team today. Shoot, most of the time it is about 2 years. I don't say much about it until someone comes up with a silly thread like this.

 

We don't know whether a team is overrated or underrated after the first scrimmage is played. Just how many teams are exactly the same as they were last year? Not very many, and the ones that are will be graduating their teams this year.

I don't think you understood what golfingnut was saying. He was basing a team's success this year on what that team has done in the past when faced with similar personnel changes. If a team that has been winning for a decade or longer, even though they've been faced with similar changes year in and year out, you can assume that the trend will continue. Yes, Gilmer lost a lot of good athletes but they have been down that road before......and STILL have won. They may not be state championship caliber (at least not yet), but I'll guarantee you they will still be very good. Consistency is something you can count on when you have good coaching and a good talent pool. Think of it like this, the last time Gilmer lost 10 starters on their offense was after the '03 season. Ironically, a wide receiver moved to QB in '04, too. Do you remember what happened for Gilmer in '04? I'm not gonna say that will happen again, but........it's not out of the realm of possibility.

[BuckeyeDad]

I don't think you understood what golfingnut was saying. He was basing a team's success this year on what that team has done in the past when faced with similar personnel changes. If a team that has been winning for a decade or longer, even though they've been faced with similar changes year in and year out, you can assume that the trend will continue. Yes, Gilmer lost a lot of good athletes but they have been down that road before......and STILL have won. They may not be state championship caliber (at least not yet), but I'll guarantee you they will still be very good. Consistency is something you can count on when you have good coaching and a good talent pool. Think of it like this, the last time Gilmer lost 10 starters on their offense was after the '03 season. Ironically, a wide receiver moved to QB in '04, too. Do you remember what happened for Gilmer in '04? I'm not gonna say that will happen again, but........it's not out of the realm of possibility.

 

Very well said blackflag

[TheRedBaron]

I don't think you understood what golfingnut was saying. He was basing a team's success this year on what that team has done in the past when faced with similar personnel changes. If a team that has been winning for a decade or longer, even though they've been faced with similar changes year in and year out, you can assume that the trend will continue. Yes, Gilmer lost a lot of good athletes but they have been down that road before......and STILL have won. They may not be state championship caliber (at least not yet), but I'll guarantee you they will still be very good. Consistency is something you can count on when you have good coaching and a good talent pool. Think of it like this, the last time Gilmer lost 10 starters on their offense was after the '03 season. Ironically, a wide receiver moved to QB in '04, too. Do you remember what happened for Gilmer in '04? I'm not gonna say that will happen again, but........it's not out of the realm of possibility.

 

 

How is it so hard to understand that a team in '04 bears no iota of significance to this season? That is my point. The only continuing factor can be 1 thing and 1 thing only: coaching staff. However, with the dynamics in the change of personality and talent of the players, that is only a small part of possible consistency.

 

 

 

 

 

[blackflag79]

How is it so hard to understand that a team in '04 bears no iota of significance to this season? That is my point. The only continuing factor can be 1 thing and 1 thing only: coaching staff. However, with the dynamics in the change of personality and talent of the players, that is only a small part of possible consistency.

I fully understand what you're saying, but I don't think you understand what he, or me, were saying. The point I'm trying to make is that you CAN assume a team will be good by their consistency over a number of years, 10 years in this case. Do you think that just because a team has changes in personnel that they can't be a winner when history has proven that statement to be hogwash? A "down" year for one team is totally different from a "down" year for another. Yes, the dynamics change every year, but the consistency of winning hasn't changed......so one can assume a team will be a winner again, because of their history of overcoming those dynamic changes in the past. So, just because the personnel on the field changes it doesn't mean that team won't be able to overcome those changes and win. A good coach will get the best out of the talent he has, whether it is a little or a lot. It just so happens that Gilmer has had a very good talent pool to go along with that good coaching. :thumbsup: ........so, YES, Gilmer will be good once again. How good depends on how the teams gels together with all the new players, and who will step up as the new leaders on the team.

[DAWG91]

"Seems like the 4a, and former 4a schools from Carthage's old district are pretty jealous and maybe even in denial about how good Carthage is."

 

RidemRough07 thanks for saying what I was thinking. Sounds better coming from someone other than a carthage homer.

 

Good luck on the upcoming season, except on 9/24 of course.

You guys will do good this year, i think.

[TheRedBaron]

I fully understand what you're saying, but I don't think you understand what he, or me, were saying. The point I'm trying to make is that you CAN assume a team will be good by their consistency over a number of years, 10 years in this case. Do you think that just because a team has changes in personnel that they can't be a winner when history has proven that statement to be hogwash? A "down" year for one team is totally different from a "down" year for another. Yes, the dynamics change every year, but the consistency of winning hasn't changed......so one can assume a team will be a winner again, because of their history of overcoming those dynamic changes in the past. So, just because the personnel on the field changes it doesn't mean that team won't be able to overcome those changes and win. A good coach will get the best out of the talent he has, whether it is a little or a lot. It just so happens that Gilmer has had a very good talent pool to go along with that good coaching. :thumbsup: ........so, YES, Gilmer will be good once again. How good depends on how the teams gels together with all the new players, and who will step up as the new leaders on the team.

 

10 winning seasons is an anomaly. It is a statistical coincidence. You are talking voodoo, and I'm talking logic. My point is that a team from 2010 is not and never will be the same team as one from 2004 without 24 year-olds playing varsity ball. Don't you see? All of those players from 2004 are done with college by now. If Gilmer is good or bad this year, it still has absolutely nothing to do with 2004, and all the magical, fantastical thinking won't change that.

 

I understand it is fun to make an imaginary connection, however, there is none, at all. The only thing is the same is that they are still called the Gilmer Buckeyes. That is it.

 

Personally, I hope Gilmer does real well. I still think we may give ya'll the first defeat at home in years. :) Good luck.

 

 

 

[franksnbeans]

the last time Gilmer lost 10 starters on their offense was after the '03 season.

 

 

Didn't Gilmer lose 10 starters on offense after the '07 season too? With the only starter coming back being Stump.

 

Lost: Tuminello, Johnson, Snow, Jenkins, Harris, Elms, Lee, Adkins, Fielden and can't remember who else.

 

But, I thought I remembered Stump's junior season that he was the only returning starter on offense. Am I wrong?

[blackflag79]

10 winning seasons is an anomaly. It is a statistical coincidence.

Not necessarily an anomaly, and statistics have been consistent over 10 years. It happens all the time with other winning programs, so how can it be an anomaly?

You are talking voodoo, and I'm talking logic.

You're wrong. I don't talk voodoo. I'll leave that to those who believe in that bullcrap. I'm the one talking logically, and I've proven my point.

My point is that a team from 2010 is not and never will be the same team as one from 2004 without 24 year-olds playing varsity ball. Don't you see?

Like I said, I understand where you're coming from, but you fail to see where I'm coming from. A history of winning leads one to believe that it will continue until proven otherwise.

All of those players from 2004 are done with college by now. If Gilmer is good or bad this year, it still has absolutely nothing to do with 2004, and all the magical, fantastical thinking won't change that.

LOL! No kidding! If you speak "statistical" in your posts, where's the proof. My statistics speak of a pattern of consistency over a period of ten years. Why would that pattern change all of a sudden? There no precedent for any pattern in your way of thinking, yet you call it "logic". :rolleyes:

 

I understand it is fun to make an imaginary connection, however, there is none, at all. The only thing is the same is that they are still called the Gilmer Buckeyes. That is it.

There's absoutely nothing imaginary about a consistent pattern of winning, and the statistics prove that point.

 

Personally, I hope Gilmer does real well.

Thanks.

I still think we may give ya'll the first defeat at home in years. LOL! Ain't gonna happen in my opinion. :)

Good luck.

Luck will have absolutely nothing to do with it. LOL!

[LIONMAN]

Is this thread gonna end??

 

 

[Eagleborn]

Is this thread gonna end??

Nope, never...

[trueblue82]

Anyone who calls Gilmer overrated is obviously new to East Texas football.

[GTownballer]

Didn't Gilmer lose 10 starters on offense after the '07 season too? With the only starter coming back being Stump.

 

Lost: Tuminello, Johnson, Snow, Jenkins, Harris, Elms, Lee, Adkins, Fielden and can't remember who else.

 

But, I thought I remembered Stump's junior season that he was the only returning starter on offense. Am I wrong?

 

Ding! Ding! I think you ring the bell on that one! :thumbsup:

 

[Golfingnut]

10 winning seasons is an anomaly. It is a statistical coincidence. You are talking voodoo, and I'm talking logic. My point is that a team from 2010 is not and never will be the same team as one from 2004 without 24 year-olds playing varsity ball. Don't you see? All of those players from 2004 are done with college by now. If Gilmer is good or bad this year, it still has absolutely nothing to do with 2004, and all the magical, fantastical thinking won't change that.

 

I understand it is fun to make an imaginary connection, however, there is none, at all. The only thing is the same is that they are still called the Gilmer Buckeyes. That is it.

 

Personally, I hope Gilmer does real well. I still think we may give ya'll the first defeat at home in years. :) Good luck.

 

 

 

Let me see if I can add something to the mix! First BlackFlag is absolutely correct in what I meant, but I will make one addition. You say that Gilmer's success this year has nothing to do with 2004. I disagree! Gilmer has not lost a district game in over 10 years, and there is a reason for their success. Yes, you are right that the kids that played in 2004, don't play now, but the kids that play now, did play in 2004! Today the names of kids are different, the talent is different, the fans are different, some of the coaches are different, the whole town of Gilmer is different, but the system is not! The system that was established many, many, many years ago is still in place and it trails all the way down to the grade schools, to the Mini Buckeyes.

 

You know, this isn't rocket science! The only difference between the 2010 Buckeyes and the 2004 Buckeyes, are the names. The system is still the same, and in 2004 these Gilmer Seniors were in 6th grade, learning the system. I can promise you that every Buckeye that steps on that field, knows the system. That makes them way ahead of a whole lot of teams.

 

OK, I really can't say it any better than this, and the way BlackFlag said it. I wish your team the best, and I thank BlackFlag for jumping in and explaining things. I wish the Gilmer Buckeyes the best, but this is the most post I have ever made supporting Gilmer, and it is getting a little uncomfortable here in Bearland for me to defend our arch rivals, so I will stick by my original post and say that neither Gilmer nor Carthage are overrated!