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Adrian Beltre Deal Premature


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BTW, I just had a huge chuckle looking back at the Cliff Lee thread. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but it sure seemed like Five0, Rattler, and Ratface were supporting the Rangers' willingness to spend $23 mil for 6 yrs for a PITCHER who would be 39 at the end of the contract and had really only had 3 great seasons.

 

Now, that's what I would call an ARod-type of contract. You all will be very grateful the Rangers never completed that deal.

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BTW, I just had a huge chuckle looking back at the Cliff Lee thread. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but it sure seemed like Five0, Rattler, and Ratface were supporting the Rangers' willingness to spend $23 mil for 6 yrs for a PITCHER who would be 39 at the end of the contract and had really only had 3 great seasons.

 

Now, that's what I would call an ARod-type of contract. You all will be very grateful the Rangers never completed that deal.

 

If you want to quote me-do it wright. the signing of THE top pitcher in the bigs is TOTALLY different than a Bel. You cant even put those two together!!!!!!!!!!!!! nice try.

nobody new the amount until late of lee's money and yr numbers, the support to resign from us was there. But we all agreed when the numbers came out the YEARS was going to be tough to swallow!

So i hope you didn't hurt yourself chuckling to hard- :flowers:

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Comparing Lee to Beltre is apples to oranges. In baseball good pitching beats good hitting. Seven years for Lee is as bad as Beltre getting $14m+ a season.

 

Third basemen

The highest-paid third basemen, by average annual value:

1. Alex Rodriguez, $27,500,000 (2008-17)

2. Michael Young, $16,000,000 (2009-13)

. . . Adrian Beltre, $16,000,000 (2011-16)

4. Aramis Ramirez, $15,000,000 (2007-11)

5. Chipper Jones, $14,000,000 (2010-12)

6. Adrian Beltre, $12,800,000 (2005-09)

7. Mike Lowell, $12,500,000 (2008-10)

8. Chipper Jones, $12,333,333 (2006-08)

9. Troy Glaus, $11,500,000 (2005-08)

. . . Scott Rolen, $11,500,000 (2003-10)

11. Eric Chavez, $11,000,000 (2005-10)

12. David Wright, $9,166,667 (2007-12)

13. Ryan Zimmerman, $9,000,000 (2009-13)

 

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If you want to quote me-do it wright. the signing of THE top pitcher in the bigs is TOTALLY different than a Bel. You cant even put those two together!!!!!!!!!!!!! nice try.

nobody new the amount until late of lee's money and yr numbers, the support to resign from us was there. But we all agreed when the numbers came out the YEARS was going to be tough to swallow!

So i hope you didn't hurt yourself chuckling to hard- :flowers:

 

"Please correct me if I'm wrong, but it sure seemed like"

 

Where exactly did I quote you? I went out of my way to not quote anyone, but rather to say that was my impression from your comments. You're the one that needs to get it "wright."

 

And, in your opinion, Cliff Lee is the best pitcher in MLB? Are you serious? The dude didn't even finish in the TOP 10 in the Cy Young vote. If you're saying he's recently been the best in the postseason, I'll buy that.

 

The comparisons I draw in the two situations are not solely based on pitcher vs position. Rather, they're based on the things you negative people are trying to use against Beltre. You're all evidently fine with signing a 32 year old pitcher to a 6-7 year deal at max dollars, even though the chances of him being ineffective by that time are almost guaranteed. However, you rail against signing an all-around good position player to a 5-6 year deal, even though his chances of being productive (at least offensively) at the end of his contract are pretty good.

 

You guys can cry all you want about the dollars. They're hear to stay. If you want to compete for good players, you're going to pay an average of $15-$25 million per year based on their stats. Thanks to a signing like Werth's, that's now where the market sits. Seriously, get over the dollars argument because you finally have an ownership group that is willing to pay what it takes to improve the team.

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Comparing Lee to Beltre is apples to oranges. In baseball good pitching beats good hitting. Seven years for Lee is as bad as Beltre getting $14m+ a season.

 

Third basemen

The highest-paid third basemen, by average annual value:

1. Alex Rodriguez, $27,500,000 (2008-17)

2. Michael Young, $16,000,000 (2009-13)

. . . Adrian Beltre, $16,000,000 (2011-16)

4. Aramis Ramirez, $15,000,000 (2007-11)

5. Chipper Jones, $14,000,000 (2010-12)

6. Adrian Beltre, $12,800,000 (2005-09)

7. Mike Lowell, $12,500,000 (2008-10)

8. Chipper Jones, $12,333,333 (2006-08)

9. Troy Glaus, $11,500,000 (2005-08)

. . . Scott Rolen, $11,500,000 (2003-10)

11. Eric Chavez, $11,000,000 (2005-10)

12. David Wright, $9,166,667 (2007-12)

13. Ryan Zimmerman, $9,000,000 (2009-13)

 

I don't think comparing Lee to Beltre is apples to oranges. Comparing Greinke to Beltre, I'll give you that.

 

The real question is how long is "good" pitching going to still be considered good. I'll take a 38 year old Beltre over a 38 year old Lee every day of the week.

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...I'll take a 38 year old Beltre over a 38 year old Lee every day of the week.

That was the Rangers thinking throughout the early and mid 90's. See where that got us?

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I don't think comparing Lee to Beltre is apples to oranges. Comparing Greinke to Beltre, I'll give you that.

 

The real question is how long is "good" pitching going to still be considered good. I'll take a 38 year old Beltre over a 38 year old Lee every day of the week.

 

 

:hmm: :hmm: :hmm: I don't know man, Lee would have looked good in our rotation.

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Difference was those Rangers were getting 38 year olds at 38 lol Not getting them when they still were in their prime window

 

So know you day say beltre is in his prime window. and I said I don't like the years. I know we had to pay the yrs and $ to get him. and I hope it will be great. I just feel in two years we will have this same post how 3B is broke but we are stuck with him for another 3 years. I think he will tear it up for us.... but how long. and by the way. he will not put up 28 to35 like you said.26 max this yr and avg.17 over the next three yrs.

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So know you day say beltre is in his prime window. and I said I don't like the years. I know we had to pay the yrs and $ to get him. and I hope it will be great. I just feel in two years we will have this same post how 3B is broke but we are stuck with him for another 3 years. I think he will tear it up for us.... but how long. and by the way. he will not put up 28 to35 like you said.26 max this yr and avg.17 over the next three yrs.

 

 

I will try to find the link but someone did research on great defensive 3B as they got older and the numbers really did not drop off as thewy got older and the research showed 3B was a position where age did not wear them down as much

 

I disagree about the HR total..he has averaged 25 a year with alot of those years coming in a place like Safeco that is not a HR park..I think the park itself will always add a few HRs to a player hence why I said 28-32.

 

Norm Hitzges today predicted a 30 HR 110 RBI type of player

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I still say they should have spent that money on A) a pitcher B) a catcher or C) a first baseman. If one of those could not be found to improve the team, save the money and wait til next season. Can't worry about it now though. The money is gone and we have another third baseman for at least five years. I just hope he performs like '04 or '10. If he performs like the other 11 years he's played, it will have been a big waste of money.

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I will try to find the link but someone did research on great defensive 3B as they got older and the numbers really did not drop off as thewy got older and the research showed 3B was a position where age did not wear them down as much

 

I disagree about the HR total..he has averaged 25 a year with alot of those years coming in a place like Safeco that is not a HR park..I think the park itself will always add a few HRs to a player hence why I said 28-32.

 

Norm Hitzges today predicted a 30 HR 110 RBI type of player

 

I'm not saying to be rite always, cuz I've been wrong.but in a post u said 28 to 35 HRs. Now the numbers are already dropping!

And I will give u props on finding links and research, but in baseball u can throw that bull out the window. Plus are u saying he is in his prime window now, but research say next yr when he is old age won't wear on him. Usually in the prime u have three years give or take. U can't have both. And the link u are mentioning has to do with THE IRON MAN himself! Or least modeled after. I will stick to my 26 and think 96 rubbies. I hope I am wrong! Oh by the way- I will cheer for him and hope to love him like we all did Vlady

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I'm not saying to be rite always, cuz I've been wrong.but in a post u said 28 to 35 HRs. Now the numbers are already dropping!

And I will give u props on finding links and research, but in baseball u can throw that bull out the window. Plus are u saying he is in his prime window now, but research say next yr when he is old age won't wear on him. Usually in the prime u have three years give or take. U can't have both. And the link u are mentioning has to do with THE IRON MAN himself! Or least modeled after. I will stick to my 26 and think 96 rubbies. I hope I am wrong! Oh by the way- I will cheer for him and hope to love him like we all did Vlady

 

 

My numbers did not drop, I hit the wrong button

 

IRON MAN? Who?

 

And if Beltre does hit your target of 26 HRs 96 RBI while improving the 3B defense to the point he will, I will be very happy

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I think this WAS a needed expense( not that I like the amount)...Young was terrible defensively at 3B there is no way around that..now Texas has the best left side of the infield in baseball a top 4 infield on defense and a top 5 possibly defense overall and they get to keep Young's bat and they added 28-35 HRs at the 3B position

I've been going over the numbers actually trying to find a way to agree with you...but I just can't.

 

MY's numbers will always be the same. 20-25 HRs .290-.310 AVG, and 90-100 RBIs. Young's numbers on average look to be a little better than Beltre's, but I'll just call them even to avoid an argument. Beltre's defense is better. No argument from me there. So our production at third doesn't change (offensively). What does change? DH. Vlad's average season is good for 30-35 HRs, .310-.320 AVG, and 110-120 RBI. Our drop off at the DH position becomes the difference. You're looking at possibly a 10-15 HR drop-off, 20-30 point drop off in AVG, and 20-30 point drop in RBIs. That's not insignificant.

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I've been going over the numbers actually trying to find a way to agree with you...but I just can't.

 

MY's numbers will always be the same. 20-25 HRs .290-.310 AVG, and 90-100 RBIs. Young's numbers on average look to be a little better than Beltre's, but I'll just call them even to avoid an argument. Beltre's defense is better. No argument from me there. So our production at third doesn't change (offensively). What does change? DH. Vlad's average season is good for 30-35 HRs, .310-.320 AVG, and 110-120 RBI. Our drop off at the DH position becomes the difference. You're looking at possibly a 10-15 HR drop-off, 20-30 point drop off in AVG, and 20-30 point drop in RBIs. That's not insignificant.

 

 

Young is the DH for the most part..as you said he is a 20-25 HR guy..Vlad hit 29..Young hit 21, a 8 hr difference

 

RBIs..yes a difference, but that is also because of where they bat in the line up..if Young was 4-5 in line up I think you could easily add about 10-20 RBI to his 96 from last year..BUT Young scores more runs..99 compared to Vlad's 83

 

Average Young's was lower..but also as you say mosre consitent and plus.284 is not his norm he is

 

So basically Young as DH/Super Role SHOULD be around .300 24 HR 90-100 RBI

 

If Beltre hits his average and nothing more that would be .279 25 HR 93 RBI

 

Not a 10-15 HR drop at DH that your talking about and Beltre's season would almost mirror Young's from last year( and I still think Beltre gets more HRs and RBI because of the park and also the line up..batting bewttn hamilton and cruz means he will see alot more fastballs IMO

 

 

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I was going off of their average season, not just what they did last year. Vlad's numbers shatter Young's. If everyone plays up to their career levels, we are going to see a drop off in ofensive production. Sure, Young or Beltre could have a miraculous season and change that, but miracles are few and far between on a baseball field. Barring the use of steroids, both players will more than likely fall within their average seasons.

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I was going off of their average season, not just what they did last year. Vlad's numbers shatter Young's. If everyone plays up to their career levels, we are going to see a drop off in ofensive production. Sure, Young or Beltre could have a miraculous season and change that, but miracles are few and far between on a baseball field. Barring the use of steroids, both players will more than likely fall within their average seasons.

 

 

not really a fair comparison IMO to show Vlad's average since he IS on the decline because of wear and tear and age..what Vlad did last year was AMAZING, but does anyone think he would reach that again this year?

 

the chances of Young and Beltre reaching their average year and surpassing it IMO is greates than Vlad even reaching his stats from last year

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not really a fair comparison IMO to show Vlad's average since he IS on the decline because of wear and tear and age..what Vlad did last year was AMAZING, but does anyone think he would reach that again this year?

 

the chances of Young and Beltre reaching their average year and surpassing it IMO is greates than Vlad even reaching his stats from last year

I think Vlad is going to show you a little something this season. He's not done. And like I said yesterday...history shows that Beltre won't reach those numbers again for about 5 or 6 years.

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I still say they should have spent that money on A) a pitcher B) a catcher or C) a first baseman. If one of those could not be found to improve the team, save the money and wait til next season. Can't worry about it now though. The money is gone and we have another third baseman for at least five years. I just hope he performs like '04 or '10. If he performs like the other 11 years he's played, it will have been a big waste of money.

 

 

Take this link here and go research just how this guy performed after signing with the Mariners. These stats don't even include what he did last year.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/historical/player...p;sortByStat=HR

 

Click on the individual stat columns and it should re-sort the rankings for you each time. Since the '04 season, and not including last season's numbers, this guy is Top 10 (for MLB 3B) in HRs, RBIs, games played, ABs, runs scored, hits, doubles, and total bases. He's also Top 5 in Ks, but that just means he fits right in with this organization.

 

Since the '02 season, the guy ranks only behind ARod (among active 3B) in HRs and RBIs for.

 

The point is, quit believing all of this nonsense about him only producing in contract years. Again, my research doesn't even include the '04 and '10 seasons.

 

If he stinks as a Ranger, it will be an aberration.

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Take this link here and go research just how this guy performed after signing with the Mariners. These stats don't even include what he did last year.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/historical/player...p;sortByStat=HR

 

Click on the individual stat columns and it should re-sort the rankings for you each time. Since the '04 season, and not including last season's numbers, this guy is Top 10 (for MLB 3B) in HRs, RBIs, games played, ABs, runs scored, hits, doubles, and total bases. He's also Top 5 in Ks, but that just means he fits right in with this organization.

 

Since the '02 season, the guy ranks only behind ARod (among active 3B) in HRs and RBIs for.

 

The point is, quit believing all of this nonsense about him only producing in contract years. Again, my research doesn't even include the '04 and '10 seasons.

 

If he stinks as a Ranger, it will be an aberration.

I never mentioned contract seasons. You're thinking of someone else. Besides....I know what the numbers are. They are just about even with Young's except that he hits about 20 points lower in AVG. You're not telling me anything I don't already know. The difference this year is going to be the numbers put up at the DH position.

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I think Vlad is going to show you a little something this season. He's not done. And like I said yesterday...history shows that Beltre won't reach those numbers again for about 5 or 6 years.

 

I dont think Vlad is done either..but I also dont think he reaches last year..plus lets look at what is does for depth

 

now instead of having a DH only, you have a guy who can fill roles when needed

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That was the Rangers thinking throughout the early and mid 90's. See where that got us?

 

And yet you want them to re-sign Guerrero? They gambled last year and it paid off. In my opinion, it paid off because he had something to prove to the Angels.

 

I wouldn't count on that this season from him. I would gamble on injuries and not much production.

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I dont think Vlad is done either..but I also dont think he reaches last year..plus lets look at what is does for depth

 

now instead of having a DH only, you have a guy who can fill roles when needed

Agree with that, but you'll still have to plug someone in at DH when Young's not there. Before you mention Murphy, you have to realize that with Hamilton and Cruz in the outfield, for 2/3 of the season Murphy is going to be a full time outfielder. I'm still not sold on Borbon either. I don't think he's going to cut it. My guess is half way through the season we'll see him traded, sent to AAA, or outright released.

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I still say they should have spent that money on A) a pitcher B) a catcher or C) a first baseman. If one of those could not be found to improve the team, save the money and wait til next season. Can't worry about it now though. The money is gone and we have another third baseman for at least five years. I just hope he performs like '04 or '10. If he performs like the other 11 years he's played, it will have been a big waste of money.

 

Own it dude. The fact that you continue to bring up the '04 and '10 seasons, knowing full well that those were his big contract seasons. proves that.

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