Dallas Mock Draft

[KirtFalcon]

Logic. If the prevailing trait of playoff winning team/ Super Bowl teams is Defensive Passer Rating, and considering that ALL teams in the last 10 years or so were at least top 5 in this statistic have won a Super Bowl...

 

...and then look at Dallas and see that the best Defensive Passer Rating they could muster in the entire Romo period was a whopping 88 (Not even top 10, yet they managed a playoff victory )...

 

...one would be able to conclude that pass defense is needed for any serious playoff run, such as those enjoyed by P. Manning, D. Brees, B. Roethlisberger, T. Brady, and A. Rodgers (said quarterbacks won Super Bowls in years their team was #1 in DPR, and haven't repeated without it.)

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That's pretty weak, if it's the best defense of Romo you can come up with.

[Lobo97]

Logic. If the prevailing trait of playoff winning team/ Super Bowl teams is Defensive Passer Rating, and considering that ALL teams in the last 10 years or so were at least top 5 in this statistic have won a Super Bowl...

 

...and then look at Dallas and see that the best Defensive Passer Rating they could muster in the entire Romo period was a whopping 88 (Not even top 10, yet they managed a playoff victory )...

 

...one would be able to conclude that pass defense is needed for any serious playoff run, such as those enjoyed by P. Manning, D. Brees, B. Roethlisberger, T. Brady, and A. Rodgers (said quarterbacks won Super Bowls in years their team was #1 in DPR, and haven't repeated without it.)

Insanity - Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

 

Since Romo has taken over as QB of the Dallas Cowboys, the Cowboys have made changes from coaching staff to players. Tony Romo is one of the only constants remaining since his first year. Yet here we are still going .500 and missing the playoffs.

[Lobo97]

We all have our opinions on Romo. We've also had this conversation many times before. So let's get this one back on track with the topic of the thread...

 

When the Cowboys come up with their 18th pick, I hope they take the best player available and not worry about position...that's what the first round is for. After that, I would love to see them take Tyler Wilson with either their 2nd or 3rd rd pick. That's me. I also don't want them to pick him with the expectation of him taking over as the starter as a Rookie, but to mold him as the QB of the future.

[spacegolfer]

LOL, Really?

Flacco - 8 playoff wins, 1 Super Bowl ring, 1 Super Bowl MVP

Eli - 6 playoff wins, 2 Super Bowl rings, 2 Super Bowl MVP's

Romo - 1 playoff win, 0 Super Bowls, 0 Super Bowl MVP's

I'd say those numbers support my argument.

 

Again....One playoff victory in 6 years, two consecutive .500 seasons. I remember a time when Cowboys fans found this unacceptable. But I guess that's part of the problem; Today's generation of fans don't remember when the Cowboys were truly 'America's Team' or why. All they have been privileged to is losing. So just because we have a QB who can throw for 4,000 yards and 25 TD's (but so does 10-15 other QB's in the NFL every year...because that's the way the rules have been changed!) during the regular season, you think he's 'elite'.

 

QB's get paid to lead their teams to Wins. But in Jerry's world they get payed because of what they do on paper, and the delusional fans support it. True fans will follow their teams no matter what. That means even when team ownership makes boneheaded decisions. I have always been a Cowboys fan and always will be. But let's make one thing clear, that does not mean that I 'have' to support every decision Jerry makes nor does it make me less of a fan.

False logic. Your numbers only support the success of the teams. The QB is only one part of it. No there are not usually 10 or 15 QB's that has the stats of Tony every year. You put Tony with any of the top teams and he will have very much success in the playoffs. The numbers support that also.

[Lobo97]

False logic. Your numbers only support the success of the teams. The QB is only one part of it. No there are not usually 10 or 15 QB's that has the stats of Tony every year. You put Tony with any of the top teams and he will have very much success in the playoffs. The numbers support that also.

I said there are 10-15 QB's who throw for 4K+ yards and 25 TD's every year. Sorry to disappoint you, but THAT is a fact. Don't believe it, go look it up.

[spacegolfer]

I said there are 10-15 QB's who throw for 4K+ yards and 25 TD's every year. Sorry to disappoint you, but THAT is a fact. Don't believe it, go look it up.

Fair enough.... Romo is consistently at the top of the list. Even with not much support on the offense or defensive side. His stellar stats would subside some if and when Dallas' lines on both sides get better.

[badblackcat]

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That's pretty weak, if it's the best defense of Romo you can come up with.

 

 

How weak can it be if it has literally become an axiom?

 

If you can disprove it with three examples in the last 15 years, I would laud your research and critical thinking, and yet it would still prove my point.

 

But outside of the 2010 Giants (DPR 87) I can't think of any team that has won a Super Bowl with a DPR not in the top 5 of the league.

[badblackcat]

We all have our opinions on Romo. We've also had this conversation many times before. So let's get this one back on track with the topic of the thread...

 

When the Cowboys come up with their 18th pick, I hope they take the best player available and not worry about position...that's what the first round is for. After that, I would love to see them take Tyler Wilson with either their 2nd or 3rd rd pick. That's me. I also don't want them to pick him with the expectation of him taking over as the starter as a Rookie, but to mold him as the QB of the future.

 

 

Fair enough.

 

Question is, who is the best talent available? I have a hard time believing it to be Warmack/Cooper, even though no one wants Bernandeau starting at guard. I have a hard time believing Sheldon Richardson will fall, but would take him if he did. For me, that leaves likely targets to be Vaccaro, Sylvester Williams, one of the corners (Trufant perhaps?), Bjoern Werner, possibly Jarvis Jones, Datone Jones, and Damontre Moore.

[KirtFalcon]

How weak can it be if it has literally become an axiom?

 

If you can disprove it with three examples in the last 15 years, I would laud your research and critical thinking, and yet it would still prove my point.

 

But outside of the 2010 Giants (DPR 87) I can't think of any team that has won a Super Bowl with a DPR not in the top 5 of the league.

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I'm sure someone could come up with many other examples of commonalities between Super Bowl winning teams and those who haven't won lately. That doesn't change the fact that Romo hasn't been able to get it done in playoff games. I also think a big contributor to the Cowboy's weak defensive performance is because their offense has been so bad they have been put in a lot of tough spots due to Romo and the offense inability to sustain drives and hold onto the ball. That exposes their defense to a lot of pressure by being put in situations where they are on the field too m uch and defending short field situations.. How does that factor into your DPR?

[Lobo97]

Fair enough.

 

Question is, who is the best talent available? I have a hard time believing it to be Warmack/Cooper, even though no one wants Bernandeau starting at guard. I have a hard time believing Sheldon Richardson will fall, but would take him if he did. For me, that leaves likely targets to be Vaccaro, Sylvester Williams, one of the corners (Trufant perhaps?), Bjoern Werner, possibly Jarvis Jones, Datone Jones, and Damontre Moore.

That's the hard question to answer at this point. The mock drafts keep changing so much with the pro days going on that it's hard to determine at this point which players will slide and which will move up.

 

These are the players that 'could' still be available at 18 and that would be the best picks for Dallas in my opinion,

Vaccaro, Texas

Mingo, LSU

Warmack, Bama

Jarvis Jones, Georgia

Werner, FSU

Fluker, Bama

Matt Elam, Florida

 

I know that most everyone believes the O-Line is the weakest link on this team right now, but if you have a guy like Mingo, Jones, or Werner still available, I think you have to take them. So many great O-Lineman have been selected in the later rounds. Not near as many D-Lineman have (not to say they don't slip either). As for safeties, I really like Vaccaro especially since he went to Texas, but I don't know which will be a better pro between he and Elam.

[badblackcat]

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I'm sure someone could come up with many other examples of commonalities between Super Bowl winning teams and those who haven't won lately. That doesn't change the fact that Romo hasn't been able to get it done in playoff games. I also think a big contributor to the Cowboy's weak defensive performance is because their offense has been so bad they have been put in a lot of tough spots due to Romo and the offense inability to sustain drives and hold onto the ball. That exposes their defense to a lot of pressure by being put in situations where they are on the field too m uch and defending short field situations.. How does that factor into your DPR?

 

 

The three factors that correlate to winning football games are as follows:

 

1) turnovers - 80%+

2) Defensive Passer Rating (this holds true even going back to the "Dynasty" teams; 70's Steelers, 80's Niners, 90's Cowboys) - 70% +

3) Passer Rating ( and when comparing to older teams, YPA) 65-70%

 

My examples, and pretty much any other anyone cares to bring up, show that teams with bad pass defenses rarely get anywhere in the playoffs, despite having good offenses/good quarterbacks. It is a scenario as old as the NFL itself, littered with teams with high-powered offenses that were done in by teams with better defenses. I could provide a list of the more popular examples if need be.

 

There in lies a contradiction in your premise. We know that Romo, without a doubt, supplies this team with a correlation to victory ( a high passer rating ), with the absolute worst year he's ever had still netting a low 90's. This is far and away better than several quarterbacks that have won playoff games, like the previously popular Mark Sanchez and Ben Roethlisberger.

 

So we know that premise is tossed in the trash. We've seen Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have stellar seasons, better ones than anyone in football, and yet they can't win a playoff game until they have the #1 pass defense in football ( and in years that were subpar to previous efforts).

 

Defensive Passer Rating will trump offense time and again; it is the area this team has lacked since 2003. It is the popular ESPN meme to blame Romo for not winning playoff games with defenses that are mustering a DPR in the 90's. There's a reason: no one ever has. Not a single quarterback. It will never matter how well he does as long as his defense can't muster, at the very least, a DPR below 85.

 

For your premise to be true (or close to it) we would need to find examples of quarterbacks that won multiple playoff victories with bad defenses in multiple years. They're aren't any.

 

As you've said, this as been discussed before and always with the final 'clunk' of not a single person being able to make a contradictory premise sing true. It should probably start off a new thread. Romo may never win another playoff game and he may join the heaps of quarterbacks in NFL history that couldn't win with bad defenses. It will be because he never managed to have a top 10 pass defense, like all the last 10 Super Bowl quarterbacks got to have.

 

Now, if this next season he gets the #2 pass defense in the league and can't go deep in the playoffs, then he will have rightfully deserved some vitriol.

[badblackcat]

That's the hard question to answer at this point. The mock drafts keep changing so much with the pro days going on that it's hard to determine at this point which players will slide and which will move up.

 

These are the players that 'could' still be available at 18 and that would be the best picks for Dallas in my opinion,

Vaccaro, Texas

Mingo, LSU

Warmack, Bama

Jarvis Jones, Georgia

Werner, FSU

Fluker, Bama

Matt Elam, Florida

 

I know that most everyone believes the O-Line is the weakest link on this team right now, but if you have a guy like Mingo, Jones, or Werner still available, I think you have to take them. So many great O-Lineman have been selected in the later rounds. Not near as many D-Lineman have (not to say they don't slip either). As for safeties, I really like Vaccaro especially since he went to Texas, but I don't know which will be a better pro between he and Elam.

 

I went with Vaccaro simply because Dallas showed the most interest in him and he is likely to be had at 18. If it were me, however, I tend to want to go with a defensive tackle or DE if there is a good one that falls..and hopefully Dallas will too. I like Werner and Carradine. I am not sure how Jarvis Jones or Mingo would fit in Kiffin's scheme. Elam, to me, isn't a first rounder. I honestly haven't paid much attention to Fluker; I've put most of my attention into watching Warmack.

 

I would trade down if possible, and look for Sylvester Williams or Kawann Short. Maybe one of Cooper/Warmack/Fluker would fall and land in their lap. I would much rather target Eric Reid or Jon Cypien in the 2nd.

[badblackcat]

The latest twitter news is that Justin Durant deal is done; Orton was restructured to make it happen.

 

Offers are out to G Brandon Moore and S Wil Allen, and no word yet if accepted.

 

Possibly being cut: FB Lawrence Vickers. Caleb McSurdy possibly to replace him.

[Lobo97]

The latest twitter news is that Justin Durant deal is done; Orton was restructured to make it happen.

 

Offers are out to G Brandon Moore and S Wil Allen, and no word yet if accepted.

 

Possibly being cut: FB Lawrence Vickers. Caleb McSurdy possibly to replace him.

Will Allen has agreed in principal with Dallas. I think that helps with depth, but I don't know what it does for their starting lineup (Will Allen has only started 33 of his 133 career games).

[KirtFalcon]

The three factors that correlate to winning football games are as follows:

 

1) turnovers - 80%+

2) Defensive Passer Rating (this holds true even going back to the "Dynasty" teams; 70's Steelers, 80's Niners, 90's Cowboys) - 70% +

3) Passer Rating ( and when comparing to older teams, YPA) 65-70%

 

My examples, and pretty much any other anyone cares to bring up, show that teams with bad pass defenses rarely get anywhere in the playoffs, despite having good offenses/good quarterbacks. It is a scenario as old as the NFL itself, littered with teams with high-powered offenses that were done in by teams with better defenses. I could provide a list of the more popular examples if need be.

 

There in lies a contradiction in your premise. We know that Romo, without a doubt, supplies this team with a correlation to victory ( a high passer rating ), with the absolute worst year he's ever had still netting a low 90's. This is far and away better than several quarterbacks that have won playoff games, like the previously popular Mark Sanchez and Ben Roethlisberger.

 

So we know that premise is tossed in the trash. We've seen Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have stellar seasons, better ones than anyone in football, and yet they can't win a playoff game until they have the #1 pass defense in football ( and in years that were subpar to previous efforts).

 

Defensive Passer Rating will trump offense time and again; it is the area this team has lacked since 2003. It is the popular ESPN meme to blame Romo for not winning playoff games with defenses that are mustering a DPR in the 90's. There's a reason: no one ever has. Not a single quarterback. It will never matter how well he does as long as his defense can't muster, at the very least, a DPR below 85.

 

For your premise to be true (or close to it) we would need to find examples of quarterbacks that won multiple playoff victories with bad defenses in multiple years. They're aren't any.

 

As you've said, this as been discussed before and always with the final 'clunk' of not a single person being able to make a contradictory premise sing true. It should probably start off a new thread. Romo may never win another playoff game and he may join the heaps of quarterbacks in NFL history that couldn't win with bad defenses. It will be because he never managed to have a top 10 pass defense, like all the last 10 Super Bowl quarterbacks got to have.

 

Now, if this next season he gets the #2 pass defense in the league and can't go deep in the playoffs, then he will have rightfully deserved some vitriol.

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That's a nice dissertation and I'm sure much of it is true. You still, however, dodged my point about Romo and the inept Dallas offense putting a lot of pressure on their defense and how that has to factor into their DPR. I honestly believe a lot of their defensive problems can be directly attributed to their mediocre offense led by Romo. How many minutes per game does is the Dallas defense on the field compared to those Super Bowl winning teams? How many offensive 3-and-outs do the Cowboys offensive have compared to those Super Bowl winning teams? How many offensive turnovers compared to those SB winning teams? You can't just claim DPR deficiency and blame it all on the defense when their offense is inept.

[badblackcat]

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That's a nice dissertation and I'm sure much of it is true. You still, however, dodged my point about Romo and the inept Dallas offense putting a lot of pressure on their defense and how that has to factor into their DPR. I honestly believe a lot of their defensive problems can be directly attributed to their mediocre offense led by Romo. How many minutes per game does is the Dallas defense on the field compared to those Super Bowl winning teams? How many offensive 3-and-outs do the Cowboys offensive have compared to those Super Bowl winning teams? How many offensive turnovers compared to those SB winning teams? You can't just claim DPR deficiency and blame it all on the defense when their offense is inept.

 

It doesn't dodge your point...it pummels it into irrelevence. You're grasping at straws, because you don't even know the answer to your own questions. I shouldn't have to do the legwork on a premise you had spur-of-the-moment...that's for you to do. Here is a quick summary:

 

premise #1 - Maybe possibly Time of Possession is a better correlation to victory ( it isn't ).

premise #2 - Maybe possibly the number of 3 and outs an offense has correlates to number of victories ( it doesn't).

premise #3 - Offensive turnovers correlate to victories. Not sure if you knew you were cribbing from me, but yes, Turnovers is the highest correlation to victory. It is also the most random. DPR and Passer Rating both take turnovers into account. We know from Romo's stats that he has a low turnover rate (thus the high Passer Rating), and the defense doesn't cause any turnovers (thus the low DPR.)

 

So boiled down without having to look up examples, two of your premises are wrong, while the other is simply my premise re-phrased.

[KirtFalcon]

It doesn't dodge your point...it pummels it into irrelevence. You're grasping at straws, because you don't even know the answer to your own questions. I shouldn't have to do the legwork on a premise you had spur-of-the-moment...that's for you to do. Here is a quick summary:

 

premise #1 - Maybe possibly Time of Possession is a better correlation to victory ( it isn't ).

premise #2 - Maybe possibly the number of 3 and outs an offense has correlates to number of victories ( it doesn't).

premise #3 - Offensive turnovers correlate to victories. Not sure if you knew you were cribbing from me, but yes, Turnovers is the highest correlation to victory. It is also the most random. DPR and Passer Rating both take turnovers into account. We know from Romo's stats that he has a low turnover rate (thus the high Passer Rating), and the defense doesn't cause any turnovers (thus the low DPR.)

 

So boiled down without having to look up examples, two of your premises are wrong, while the other is simply my premise re-phrased.

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Nice "premises" opinions, we all know what they are like ... and yes, everybody's got one. :P

[badblackcat]

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Nice "premises" opinions, we all know what they are like ... and yes, everybody's got one. :P

They're your premises. YOU just stated them in your last post...my summary of them just made them coherent.

[Stoney]

Doesnt Jarvis Jones have the same spinal problem that Michael Irvin has?

[KirtFalcon]

They're your premises. YOU just stated them in your last post...my summary of them just made them coherent.

.

You mean your opinion of my opinion? :P

[Baron]

Insanity - Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

 

Since Romo has taken over as QB of the Dallas Cowboys, the Cowboys have made changes from coaching staff to players. Tony Romo is one of the only constants remaining since his first year. Yet here we are still going .500 and missing the playoffs.

The one real constant you didn't mention and the real culprit to 17 years of frustration is Jerry Jones. He is his own(and cowboys fans) worst enemy. A true GM is needed in Dallas at least as a consultant on draft day and during free agency. But unfortunately thats something Jerry's ego won't allow.

[badblackcat]

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You mean your opinion of my opinion? :P

 

 

The difference is mine happens to reflect reality; I can back it up with empirical evidence.

 

How about a test? You go grab data to back up your 'Time of Posession trumps all' theory and I'll grab data that shows DPR correlates to winning. We post it, and the board can vote on which one of us might know the difference between an opinion and a premise.

[KirtFalcon]

The difference is mine happens to reflect reality; I can back it up with empirical evidence.

 

How about a test? You go grab data to back up your 'Time of Posession trumps all' theory and I'll grab data that shows DPR correlates to winning. We post it, and the board can vote on which one of us might know the difference between an opinion and a premise.

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I never said DPR doesn't relate to winning, I pointed out that an inept QB and offense can significantly contribute to DPR or a bad defense. Then, you got your panties in a wad. :P

 

Statistics can be used in a lot of different ways, they don't always tell the entire story. I'm not as "fixed" on them as you seem to be.

[spacegolfer]

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That's a nice dissertation and I'm sure much of it is true. You still, however, dodged my point about Romo and the inept Dallas offense putting a lot of pressure on their defense and how that has to factor into their DPR. I honestly believe a lot of their defensive problems can be directly attributed to their mediocre offense led by Romo. How many minutes per game does is the Dallas defense on the field compared to those Super Bowl winning teams? How many offensive 3-and-outs do the Cowboys offensive have compared to those Super Bowl winning teams? How many offensive turnovers compared to those SB winning teams? You can't just claim DPR deficiency and blame it all on the defense when their offense is inept.

Since this has been beaten to death, I'll say it again. The offensive line has major issues holding blocks. Whether it's scheme, lazy, or confusion; they do not block well. It shows in the running game and passing. Romo or any running back will have problems when a defender is in the backfield earlier than they should be. Romo and Murray both seem to do pretty well escaping and making good things happen more times than not.

 

Now to disrupt your accusations about TOP. Dallas finished in the top third of the NFL in offensive time of possession. So the defense ended up being 14th in their time on the field out of 32 teams. Here is one more for you.... Only 3 teams in the entire NFL were on the field for less plays than Dallas' defense. This pretty well sums up that our defense was not over-worked because of our offense.

[THSfanatic]

This pretty well sums up that our defense was not over-worked because of our offense.

The defense is over-worked because they can't get anybody off the field.....not because of the offense.

and the offense is underwhelming because there is only one NFL caliber starter on the line and no WR that can back the defense up.