cujoforlife Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 This was post by member on the texas4asports.com board by Tom. A Denton Guyer Fan I've put together a realignment projection for 2014 because the season doesn't start for three and a half months and we need something to talk about here.Few notes before we begin:-Obviously there's a lot of speculating with enrollments involved here. Basically, I've taken the TEA's enrollment numbers from October 2012 and compared them with the UIL enrollment numbers from October 2011 to get a sense of which direction schools are moving.-The difficulties are predicting which schools will opt up to 6A (what's currently known as 5A) and, to a lesser extent, from 4A (the current 3A), as well as establishing the lower cutoff. Once we've established the upper end, the lower end should be about half that; I came up with 2100 as the upper end and used 1050 as the lower end, which means we get 247 schools. Some schools aren't currently within that range but are expected to be either due to growth at the low end, or because of current 5A districts opening new schools.-I tried to balance the four regions in terms of the number of schools, so I've got 61 schools in Region 2 and 62 in each of the other three.Subtractions from current 4A:Moving up: Amarillo, Lubbock, Denton Guyer, Byron Nelson, Humble Summer Creek, Houston Reagan, Houston Stratford*, Houston Northbrook, Houston Spring Woods, Pearland Dawson, Leander Rouse, Buda Hays, Kyle Lehman, SA BrennanMoving down: FW Dunbar*, Dallas Carter, Dallas Pinkston, Dallas Lincoln*, Greenville, Houston Wheatley, Freeport Brazosport, Floresville, Beeville JonesExpected to close: Houston North Forest*I'm assuming Stratford will opt up to 6A along with the other three schools in SBISD (Memorial, Spring Woods, Northbrook.) Dunbar and Lincoln have opted up in the past but I'm thinking they won't this year; Dunbar because FWISD would like to have a single district, Lincoln because of a couple of other DISD schools dropping down.AdditionsMoving down (from 5A): EP Bel Air, Abilene, Abilene Cooper, Mansfield Timberview, Temple, Longview, Rockwall-Heath, A&M Consolidated, Bryan, New Braunfels Canyon, Mission Sharyland, Donna, McAllen Rowe, PSJA, PSJA Memorial, PSJA NorthMoving up (from 3A): Lubbock Cooper, Alvarado, Frisco Lone Star, Boerne, SomersetNew schools: College Station, Donna North, Sharyland Pioneer MemorialREGION 1District 1CanutilloEl PasoEP AndressEP AustinEP BowieEP BurgesEP ChapinEP IrvinEP JeffersonDistrict 2Clint HorizonEP Bel AirEP Del ValleEP EastlakeEP HanksEP ParklandEP RiversideEP YsletaSan Elizario-El Paso is pretty easy to predict. With Bel Air likely dropping from 5A, you have 18 schools, the eight El Paso ISD schools all have to stay together, and Canutillo can easily move from District 2 to District 1 to make two nine-team districts.District 3Amarillo CaprockAmarillo Palo DuroCanyonCanyon RandallDumasHerefordPlainviewDistrict 4AbileneAbilene CooperLubbock CooperLubbock MontereySan Angelo Lake ViewWolfforth Frenship-Relatively easy to figure out with these schools, but this could be a nightmare if the Abilene schools don't drop. You could put the 10 Panhandle teams in one district, but then you'd have to do something with Lake View. Or you could send the two Wichita Falls schools west, but that's a LONG trip.District 5DentonFW BoswellFW Chisholm TrailLake DallasSaginawWichita FallsWF RiderDistrict 6AledoAzleBirdvilleCrowleyGranburyWhite Settlement Brewer-Currently Fort Worth ISD is split into two districts, but I'm projecting them to go back to one district, so the other teams in those districts have to be shuffled around. Plus, the current 5-4A loses two of its schools with Denton Guyer and Byron Nelson both almost certain to move up to 6A.District 7FW Arlington HeightsFW Carter-RiversideFW Eastern HillsFW North SideFW PolyFW South HillsFW SouthwestFW Trimble TechFW Western HillsFW WyattDistrict 8AlvaradoBurlesonBurleson CentennialCleburneJoshuaTempleWacoWaco University-Obviously, if FWISD is projected to have ten schools in 5A, they'll all be in a single district. Temple could just as easily be in an Austin-area district, though I suspect the UIL will keep them with the Waco schools; current 3A Alvarado's placement with the rest of Johnson County is rather obvious.REGION 2District 9Carrollton CreekviewCarrollton SmithFriscoFrisco CentennialFrisco HeritageFrisco LibertyFrisco Lone StarFrisco WakelandDistrict 10DenisonLittle ElmLucas LovejoyMcKinney NorthProsperShermanThe Colony-This is one of those situations where keeping all the schools in an ISD together is kind of annoying. It would make a lot more sense to split the Frisco schools, but that can't be done, so District 10 effectively has to "leapfrog" District 9.District 11Dallas AdamsonDallas KimballDallas MolinaDallas SamuellDallas SeagovilleDallas South Oak CliffDallas SpruceDistrict 12Dallas AdamsDallas ConradDallas HillcrestDallas JeffersonDallas WilsonHighland ParkNorth Dallas-I am sure Highland Park will hate this alignment, but from a geographical standpoint it makes too much sense. The key question here is opt-ups, particularly with Lincoln and Carter, both of which have falling numbers but still could have too much pride to drop.District 13Arlington SeguinEvermanLancasterMansfield Lake RidgeMansfield LegacyMansfield SummitMansfield TimberviewRed OakDistrict 14Mount PleasantRockwall-HeathRoyse CitySulphur SpringsTexarkana TexasWylieWylie East-With Timberview likely to drop, that means there's going to be a Mansfield-centered district. It's a bit of a drive from Everman to Lancaster and Red Oak, but moving to Region 2 won't be too bad on them. Texarkana is difficult to place but has to go somewhere; all of the schools in this district except the Wylie schools are right off I-30. And, yeah, I was sort of surprised by Rockwall-Heath's numbers, too.District 15CorsicanaEnnisForneyMesquite PoteetNorth ForneyTerrellWaxahachieWest MesquiteDistrict 16HallsvilleJacksonvilleLindaleLongviewLongview Pine TreeMarshallNacogdochesTylerWhitehouse-East Texas goes to a single district with Longview (likely) dropping, while Corsicana returns to a more DFW-oriented district that looks a lot like the 15-4A from 2010-11.REGION 3District 17Cedar ParkCP Vista RidgeGeorgetownGeorgetown East ViewHuttoLeanderLeander VandegriftMarble FallsDistrict 18A&M ConsolidatedBrenhamBryanBryan RudderCollege StationMagnoliaMagnolia WestWaller-Somebody more familiar with the traffic in the Austin area could probably better explain why the Leander ISD schools aren't currently with Georgetown and Hutto. The dropdowns of Bryan and AMC should lead to a Bryan/College Station-centered district, with Brenham an obvious addition; I'm projecting that district to go toward the Houston area, though it's also possible they could be paired with Temple and the Waco schools.District 19Conroe Caney CreekHuntsvilleMontgomeryNew CaneyNew Caney PorterTomballTomball MemorialWillisDistrict 20Barbers HillBaytown Goose CreekBaytown LeeCrosbyDaytonGalena ParkHouston KingHumbleHumble Kingwood Park-Some changes here; moving Brenham and a couple of NW suburban teams to the Bryan/CS district frees up a couple of spots in the current 18-4A, which can be filled by the New Caney schools. That allows the Baytown schools and Galena Park to go in a more natural alignment instead of to Galveston County.District 21Beaumont CentralBeaumont OzenLittle Cypress-MauricevilleLivingstonLumbertonNederlandPort Neches-GrovesVidorDistrict 22Houston AustinHouston DavisHouston LeeHouston MilbyHouston SharpstownHouston Waltrip-The only thing that changes with the current 20-4A is the number, though keep an eye on Port Arthur Memorial, which has declining numbers and would be a natural fit in this district. Houston ISD loses two schools, and who knows what will happen with North Forest -- the ISD is closing, but they're fighting it, and the high school might continue to operate as a part of HISD.District 23Bay CityRichmond FosterRichmond George RanchRosenberg Lamar ConsolidatedRosenberg TerryVictoria EastVictoria WestDistrict 24AngletonFort Bend MarshallFort Bend Ridge PointFort Bend WillowridgeFriendswoodGalveston BallSanta FeTexas City-The Victoria schools moving to Region 3 seems weird, but a bunch of extra Valley schools squeezed them out of R4, and there won't be much of a difference in terms of travel. With FBISD, watch the opt-ups; a couple of the current 5A schools have 4A numbers and could decide to drop down.REGION 4District 25Austin CrockettAustin LanierAustin LBJAustin McCallumAustin ReaganAustin TravisDripping SpringsPflugerville ConnallyDistrict 26BastropBastrop Cedar CreekElginLockhartManorNew Braunfels CanyonSchertz ClemensSeguin-Seriously, the Austin area confuses the hell out of me. That new tollway with the 85 mph speed limit seems to make it more plausible to send Elgin, Manor, Lockhart, and Bastrop down to Seguin, though. And, yeah, New Braunfels Canyon's numbers surprised me. Austin Reagan's enrollment is currently under 1050 but I suspect they'd opt up.District 27Alamo HeightsSA BrackenridgeSA BurbankSA EdisonSA HighlandsSA JeffersonSA LanierDistrict 28BoerneBoerne ChampionKerrville TivySA HarlandaleSA KennedySA McCollumSA MemorialSA Southside-San Antonio ISD is another one of those districts that would be nice to be able to split up, since District 28 essentially has to leapfrog SAISD to go from Boerne and Kerrville to the southern half of San Antonio.District 29Laredo CigarroaLaredo MartinLaredo NixonMedina ValleySomersetUvaldeDistrict 30AliceCC CalallenCC Flour BluffCC MillerCC MoodyCC RayCC Tuloso-MidwayGregory-PortlandPort Lavaca Calhoun-The Corpus schools will celebrate having the Laredo schools out of their district. Laredo ISD's travel doesn't change a lot here; it's just going in a different direction. One side effect of moving the Victoria schools to R3 is that you can create a single Corpus-area district, which almost has to be done because of the need for two Valley districts.District 31McAllen RoweMissionMission Veterans MemorialPharr Valley ViewRio Grande CityRomaSharylandSharyland Pioneer MemorialDistrict 32DonnaDonna NorthEdcouch-ElsaMercedesPSJAPSJA MemorialPSJA NorthPSJA Southwest-There sure are a lot of schools in the Valley with "Memorial" in the name. I'm assuming the other three PSJA schools will drop as Southwest fills out, and everything I've heard says Donna and Sharyland will drop. Keep an eye on the Edinburg schools, some of the Brownsville schools, and Harlingen South, as well; some of their numbers look oddly low right now.Okay. That's it, finally. Discuss away.Read more: http://texas4asports.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=region4sports&action=display&thread=2835#ixzz2TUNUhGCK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtee2 Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Does "tyler" represent JT and Lee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WP4L Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 This guy came up with 2100 as the potential lower limit cutoff for 6A..and figures Longview will drop? Doubt it. We're currently 100+ kids above 2100. Normally graduate around 500 or so and bring in a freshman class of 780-790 (although this last freshman class clipped over 800). You do the math. Anyway..Padilla (who is hardly ever wrong) is predicting the lower limits of 6A being 2190-2200. I'm sticking with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cujoforlife Posted May 16, 2013 Author Share Posted May 16, 2013 Does "tyler" represent JT and Lee? John Tyler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KirtFalcon Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 This guy came up with 2100 as the potential lower limit cutoff for 6A..and figures Longview will drop? Doubt it. We're currently 100+ kids above 2100. Normally graduate around 500 or so and bring in a freshman class of 780-790 (although this last freshman class clipped over 800). You do the math. Anyway..Padilla (who is hardly ever wrong) is predicting the lower limits of 6A being 2190-2200. I'm sticking with that. Do you have a link to Padilla's data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WP4L Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Do you have a link to Padilla's data? Ultimately, you'll have to subscribe to padillapoll to get the most out of him. But I did find a helpful link. http://scores.psquaredsports.com/2014_realignment_breaks.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboFan07 Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Just can't see them creating one "East Texas" district with 9 teams, but leaving Texas High/Mount Pleasant/Sulphur Springs out of it and sending them to the Metroplex. I wouldn't be shocked if Longview/Lufkin dropped, but it's going to be in two separate districts if they do it (like it has been imo). Definitely would be fun and interesting to me though (I know some in Longview have no desire to play more local teams but I just find playing new teams and going to new stadiums interesting so yea). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KirtFalcon Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Why no Div II for 5A and 6A? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtee2 Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 I would love to play in PT's new stadium! Just dont know if I wanna play PT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboFan07 Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Why no Div II for 5A and 6A? It's coming eventually. We're basically going to have 14 (7A is no doubt an eventuality imo) different classes in the future. Just a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WP4L Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 I know some in Longview have no desire to play more local teams but I just find playing new teams and going to new stadiums interesting so yea).I love playing new teams and going to different stadiums. Just don't like cupcakes..and East Texas 4A (or new 5A) isn't exactly the strongest thing around at the moment. And you already know how I feel about the x-files creatures that is bugs in East Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WP4L Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Why no Div II for 5A and 6A?No reason to have it. Plano East gets beat every year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboFan07 Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 I love playing new teams and going to different stadiums. Just don't like cupcakes..and East Texas 4A (or new 5A) isn't exactly the strongest thing around at the moment. And you already know how I feel about the x-files creatures that is bugs in East Texas. Wasn't specifically talking about you lol. Just in general! Definitely understand though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwolf Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Would love to see an all east tex district again...it is also nice to not be the smallest kid on the block in the playoffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KirtFalcon Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 It's coming eventually. We're basically going to have 14 (7A is no doubt an eventuality imo) different classes in the future. Just a matter of time. I agree, the UIL loves them some additional $$$$ it would bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bordertown Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Rockwall Heath & the Wylie schools would enjoy being in a district with Texarkana. While we still have 5 months to "snap shot day", I would see Tyler JT and Texas High being flipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cujoforlife Posted May 17, 2013 Author Share Posted May 17, 2013 Rockwall Heath & the Wylie schools would enjoy being in a district with Texarkana. While we still have 5 months to "snap shot day", I would see Tyler JT and Texas High being flipped. That is if they meet in the second round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WP4L Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 I would love to play in PT's new stadium! Just dont know if I wanna play PT...Saw pics of it's progress. Gonna be a big playoff spot in West Longview. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WP4L Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Rockwall Heath & the Wylie schools would enjoy being in a district with Texarkana. While we still have 5 months to "snap shot day", I would see Tyler JT and Texas High being flipped. Heath has low enrollment..but I doubt they drop. I think they'll get the cutoff but barely. Freshman classes and move ins always boost suburban cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTFAN99 Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 It's coming eventually. We're basically going to have 14 (7A is no doubt an eventuality imo) different classes in the future. Just a matter of time. I know, an thats crazy, just add one more class (7a) and you can split them all even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JR88 Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 If the lower end number is 1050, Kilgore has a good chance of moving back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbrickwall04 Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 I wonder if the peeps of Kilgore wanna move back up or stay 3A? I'd like to see them 4A again myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eagleborn Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 I wonder if the peeps of Kilgore wanna move back up or stay 3A? I'd like to see them 4A again myself. They will be 4A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSBRangers Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 You might mean the new 3A which was the old 2A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panther89 Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Is the UIL gonna stay in the same format, or are they for sure going to create a 6A Classification? Can someone please tell me something concrete and nothing based on hear-say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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