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⚾ The Official Rangers @ Athletics 3-Game Series [SEPT. 23-25] Thread

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How the Rangers are about to send a 2,500-year-old mathematician spinning in his grave

 

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/texas-rangers/rangers/2016/09/22/rangers-send-2500-year-old-mathematician-spinning-grave?f=r

 

 

By Gerry Fraley , DMN Staff Writer

 

 

ARLINGTON -- The Rangers can clinch the American League West title as soon as Friday night, when they open a series at Oakland.

 

When the inevitable event happens, it will send Pythagoras of Samos spinning in his grave. The Rangers are making Pythagoras and his followers look bad.

 

Pythagoras was a good-field, no-hit Greek philosopher and mathematician, born more than 2,500 years ago. The many contributions attributed to him include the Pythagorean Theorem, a fundamental concept of geometry.

 

Bill James, the influential godfather of analytics, brought Pythagoras into baseball with his win-expectancy formula.

 

 

In simple terms, James maintained run differential better illustrates how a team is playing than winning percentage. His creation, which considers the balance between runs scored and runs allowed, strongly resembled the concepts of the Pythagorean Theorem and has become known by his name.

 

James' device is useful and often accurate. For example, it showed this year that Philadelphia's early season success would never last. The Phillies will finish far up the track.

 

The Rangers are beating up old Pythagoras. They are surpassing the theorem's projection at a historic rate.

 

The Rangers have the AL's best record at 90-63, with a run differential of plus-9. According to the theorem, the Rangers should be 77-76, trailing Houston and Seattle in the West and fourth in the wild-card standings.

 

The Rangers' plus-13 against the theorem would be the highest over a full season since 1905. Detroit finished third in the AL at 79-74 but was plus-14 for that season vs. the theorem.

 

How are the Rangers pulling off this feat?

 

"I hear all the talk about luck," manager Jeff Banister said. "All right. You've got us. We have 472 lucky charms out in that clubhouse, with a couple of different rabbit feet."

 

Banister was being justifiably sarcastic. He subscribes to the quote attributed to Hall of Fame executive Branch Rickey that "luck is the residue of design." Banister believes his club has earned every victory.

 

There is some element of good luck to the Rangers' season. Every good club has "a horseshoe on its back," in the clubhouse parlance.

 

Skill has something to do with it, too.

 

 

The Rangers are beating Pythagoras for two tangible reasons. Their success in one-run games, and the ability of their hitters to come through in "clutch" situations.

 

The Rangers have the best record in the majors for one-run games at 36-11. Over a full season, that would be the best winning percentage (.766) in one-run games since 1900. The theorem calls for a record close to .500 in one-run games.

 

The research service STATS LLC monitors the category of "close and late" for hitters. It defines the situation as in the seventh inning or later, with a team winning by one run, tied or with the tying run on base, at the plate or on-deck.

 

The Rangers lead the AL for average (.271,) on-base percentage (.343,) slugging percentage (.449,) and home runs (33) in close-and-late situations.

 

"The reality is we've got some skilled players that are talented and go out there to play to win," Banister said. "They don't stop playing. We've got to tell them to stop playing at the end of the night. They love every part of that."

 

There is also the matter of big losses, which affect run differential. The Rangers have had 22 losses by five-plus runs, the fourth-highest total in the AL.

 

Pythagoras may yet have his revenge on the Rangers.

 

Since divisional play began in 1969, a total of eight teams surpassed by double figures their projected wins total. Their runs ended in the postseason. None of the teams won a World Series, and three missed the postseason.

 

The Rangers will make the postseason. Pythagoras cannot stop them now.

 

Twitter: @gfraley

 

A look at the teams that had the most wins over their projected total according to the Pythagorean Theorem since the beginning of divisional play in 1969:

 

 

 

 

Team Season Record Plus wins Result

 

Los Angeles Angels 2008 100-62 +12 Lost in Division Series.

New York Yankees 2004 101-61 +12 Lost in Championship Series.

New York Mets 1984 90-72 +12 Missed playoffs.

Baltimore 2012 93-69 +11 Lost in Division Series.

Arizona 2007 90-72 +11 Lost in Championship Series.

Arizona 2005 77-88 +11 Missed playoffs.

New York Mets 1972 83-73 +11 Missed playoffs.

Cincinnati 1970 102-60 +11 Lost in World Series.

 

 

 

:D

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