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Waskom Vs Hearne at Forney 2PM Friday


Wild74

Waskom Vs Forney  

37 members have voted

  1. 1. Who wins



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I've got numbers on this one, and I can only call it a toss-up with a very slight edge to Hearne.  The score predictor comes up with 25-22 Hearne when all games are considered.

These teams are pretty evenly matched on paper when the schedules are considered.  Waskom is scoring 30.8 and giving up 22.1 per game while Hearne is scoring 33.2 and giving up 16.0 per game.  However, Waskom has played a significantly tougher schedule.  Waskom opponents are scoring 33.3 and giving up 24.9 per game while Hearne opponents are scoring 24.2 and giving up 28.4 per game.  The difference in the strengths of the schedule evens this one out for me - and it could go either way.

The theoretical range of possibilities for this one based on each team's best and worst games this year : If Waskom plays a game similar to their best game this year while Hearne equals their worst performance this year, I have Waskom winning it 54-7.  Waskom's worst vs Hearne's best, and Hearne wins it 58-16.  Wide range, slightly leaning in Hearne's direction.

Only considering district games, I get Hearne on top 18-15.  If each team performs similarly to the way they did in their one playoff game, I get Hearne winning 43-34.

Something else that might make me lean toward Hearne in this one is that by my metric, Hearne's three best games are their last three games played, and not by just a little.  Is this just coincidence or can someone from Hearne tell me if something changed before the Leon game, because there is a significant jump in performance since the Leon game.  If I assume that Hearne has turned a corner and their last 3 games are how they will play, then I get a 35-17 prediction in Hearne's favor.  I wouldn't rely on that because it could just be an anomaly.

My prediction for this toss-up is Hearne on top 28-21, but that could easily be flipped I think.

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10 minutes ago, Pax said:

I've got numbers on this one, and I can only call it a toss-up with a very slight edge to Hearne.  The score predictor comes up with 25-22 Hearne when all games are considered.

These teams are pretty evenly matched on paper when the schedules are considered.  Waskom is scoring 30.8 and giving up 22.1 per game while Hearne is scoring 33.2 and giving up 16.0 per game.  However, Waskom has played a significantly tougher schedule.  Waskom opponents are scoring 33.3 and giving up 24.9 per game while Hearne opponents are scoring 24.2 and giving up 28.4 per game.  The difference in the strengths of the schedule evens this one out for me - and it could go either way.

The theoretical range of possibilities for this one based on each team's best and worst games this year : If Waskom plays a game similar to their best game this year while Hearne equals their worst performance this year, I have Waskom winning it 54-7.  Waskom's worst vs Hearne's best, and Hearne wins it 58-16.  Wide range, slightly leaning in Hearne's direction.

Only considering district games, I get Hearne on top 18-15.  If each team performs similarly to the way they did in their one playoff game, I get Hearne winning 43-34.

Something else that might make me lean toward Hearne in this one is that by my metric, Hearne's three best games are their last three games played, and not by just a little.  Is this just coincidence or can someone from Hearne tell me if something changed before the Leon game, because there is a significant jump in performance since the Leon game.  If I assume that Hearne has turned a corner and their last 3 games are how they will play, then I get a 35-17 prediction in Hearne's favor.  I wouldn't rely on that because it could just be an anomaly.

My prediction for this toss-up is Hearne on top 28-21, but that could easily be flipped I think.

Thanks

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2 hours ago, Pax said:

I've got numbers on this one, and I can only call it a toss-up with a very slight edge to Hearne.  The score predictor comes up with 25-22 Hearne when all games are considered.

These teams are pretty evenly matched on paper when the schedules are considered.  Waskom is scoring 30.8 and giving up 22.1 per game while Hearne is scoring 33.2 and giving up 16.0 per game.  However, Waskom has played a significantly tougher schedule.  Waskom opponents are scoring 33.3 and giving up 24.9 per game while Hearne opponents are scoring 24.2 and giving up 28.4 per game.  The difference in the strengths of the schedule evens this one out for me - and it could go either way.

The theoretical range of possibilities for this one based on each team's best and worst games this year : If Waskom plays a game similar to their best game this year while Hearne equals their worst performance this year, I have Waskom winning it 54-7.  Waskom's worst vs Hearne's best, and Hearne wins it 58-16.  Wide range, slightly leaning in Hearne's direction.

Only considering district games, I get Hearne on top 18-15.  If each team performs similarly to the way they did in their one playoff game, I get Hearne winning 43-34.

Something else that might make me lean toward Hearne in this one is that by my metric, Hearne's three best games are their last three games played, and not by just a little.  Is this just coincidence or can someone from Hearne tell me if something changed before the Leon game, because there is a significant jump in performance since the Leon game.  If I assume that Hearne has turned a corner and their last 3 games are how they will play, then I get a 35-17 prediction in Hearne's favor.  I wouldn't rely on that because it could just be an anomaly.

My prediction for this toss-up is Hearne on top 28-21, but that could easily be flipped I think.

I think one of the changes is they started using that Freshman QB who is a lot better running QB and throws better also

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Pray for safe travels to and from game for all the Waskom/Hearne folks. Sounds like a good one in the making.  Bob Cole and myself will be doing play by play with pregame beginning at 1:45 pm. Will be on KMHT 103.9 FM locally, and on the "net" at www.easttexastoday.com. you will also be able to catch us on FaceBook Live on "East Texas Sportsbeat" FB page.  I have tried reaching out to Hearne AD for some stat info, but have not geard back. Will dig through news articles to get stuff to makr it interesting I suppose.

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