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Cruz is going to win.  He'll give Beto a beat down in any debate.  O'Rourke might be close in polls because they probably only call people in Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio, but the rest of the State except the Rio Grande Valley are all Republican now.  

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15 hours ago, DaveTV1 said:

Cruz is going to win.  He'll give Beto a beat down in any debate.  O'Rourke might be close in polls because they probably only call people in Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio, but the rest of the State except the Rio Grande Valley are all Republican now.  

Cruz is using the poll to fund raise.....LOL

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  • 3 months later...
1 hour ago, Monte1076 said:

That's going to be an interesting race to watch.

I do think Cruz will pull out the win.

My understanding is that Cruz suggested five debates -- all on Friday nights. And what's really big on Friday Nights in Texas?

I think they're trying to work out a debate schedule.

The media is certainly humping Beto's leg right now, but in all the gushing stories about his "charisma" and poll numbers, I am yet to see any statistical analysis based in any objective empirical understanding of the data. 

Yard signs don't vote, neither do tweets, and there are a helluvalot more welders than journalists in Texas. Just because they have an audience doesn't mean that people give a s### what they have to say. 

Let's take off our red and blue goggles, and just look at the numbers... 

Ted Cruz pulled in over a 1.3 million votes in the primary. Got it? That's one million, three hundred thousand.

Robert "Beto" O'Rourke had around 600k. That's six hundred thousand. If you double that (that is, multiply 600,000 by two) Beto is still around a hundred thousand short. 

But don't stop there. Let's look at it through extremely blue-tinted glasses...

Let's say that Beto is the first Democratic candidate is the history of Texas congressional politics to get every single Dem primary vote (that's 1,030,000) PLUS let's give him every single GOP primary vote that went against Cruz (200,000)...  that means he would STILL need about 70,000 Cruz voters to swing his way, provided that Cruz doesn't get a single Independent voter. 

But by all means...  let's all get giddy about poll numbers. Maybe it'll finally happen. 

giphy.webp

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22 hours ago, AKA said:

The media is certainly humping Beto's leg right now, but in all the gushing stories about his "charisma" and poll numbers, I am yet to see any statistical analysis based in any objective empirical understanding of the data. 

Yard signs don't vote, neither do tweets, and there are a helluvalot more welders than journalists in Texas. Just because they have an audience doesn't mean that people give a s### what they have to say. 

Let's take off our red and blue goggles, and just look at the numbers... 

Ted Cruz pulled in over a 1.3 million votes in the primary. Got it? That's one million, three hundred thousand.

Robert "Beto" O'Rourke had around 600k. That's six hundred thousand. If you double that (that is, multiply 600,000 by two) Beto is still around a hundred thousand short. 

But don't stop there. Let's look at it through extremely blue-tinted glasses...

Let's say that Beto is the first Democratic candidate is the history of Texas congressional politics to get every single Dem primary vote (that's 1,030,000) PLUS let's give him every single GOP primary vote that went against Cruz (200,000)...  that means he would STILL need about 70,000 Cruz voters to swing his way, provided that Cruz doesn't get a single Independent voter. 

But by all means...  let's all get giddy about poll numbers. Maybe it'll finally happen. 

I have one Republican friend that says she's not going to vote for him, because somehow she thinks that he doesn't support Trump.  She was also mad that he rode on a plane with the Obama's before the election last year for the death of the Police Officers in Dallas.  I tried to show her the error of her ways, but she is the Queen of her wall, and if you disagree with her she'll unfriend you.  This is someone who I have known for 35 years.  So go figure. 

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21 hours ago, AKA said:

The media is certainly humping Beto's leg right now, but in all the gushing stories about his "charisma" and poll numbers, I am yet to see any statistical analysis based in any objective empirical understanding of the data. 

Yard signs don't vote, neither do tweets, and there are a helluvalot more welders than journalists in Texas. Just because they have an audience doesn't mean that people give a s### what they have to say. 

Let's take off our red and blue goggles, and just look at the numbers... 

But by all means...  let's all get giddy about poll numbers. Maybe it'll finally happen. 

Oh, don't get me wrong. I agree with you. I think Cruz will win.

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1 hour ago, Monte1076 said:

Oh, don't get me wrong. I agree with you. I think Cruz will win.

Yeah, sorry if I came off as brusque or attacking you, I wasn't trying to shoot the messenger. ;)

Just kinda reacting to what I see from my Dem friends and the mainstream media.  

It reminds me of Wendy Davis. She was a media darling, and Dems just swore that this was the beginning of turning Texas blue...  then she got destroyed at the ballot box. 

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24 minutes ago, Wild74 said:

I don't believe it is as close as the pundits are saying...

The media is all-in for Beto, which is fine, I guess. But I want someone to explain it mathematically...  I just don't see how the numbers line up. I'm not talking about polls, I'm talking about actual voters.

it would seem that Robert "Beto" O'Rourke's campaign is hoping that a broad swath of Independents vote Democrat in historically high numbers, and that the same Republicans who voted in the primary don't show up for the general, because the Dem voters just aren't there. 

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11 minutes ago, AKA said:

The media is all-in for Beto, which is fine, I guess. But I want someone to explain it mathematically...  I just don't see how the numbers line up. I'm not talking about polls, I'm talking about actual voters.

it would seem that Robert "Beto" O'Rourke's campaign is hoping that a broad swath of Independents vote Democrat in historically high numbers, and that the same Republicans who voted in the primary don't show up for the general, because the Dem voters just aren't there. 

I don't think Cruz will win by as much in this election compared to the first round when he basically had a nobody with no money running against him, but I think Cruz will win by at least 700,000 votes if turnout is comparable to the primaries. 

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14 minutes ago, AKA said:

The media is all-in for Beto, which is fine, I guess. But I want someone to explain it mathematically...  I just don't see how the numbers line up. I'm not talking about polls, I'm talking about actual voters.

it would seem that Robert "Beto" O'Rourke's campaign is hoping that a broad swath of Independents vote Democrat in historically high numbers, and that the same Republicans who voted in the primary don't show up for the general, because the Dem voters just aren't there. 

Liberal media polls have never been valid indicators of actual candidate support or likely election outcomes.  They are designed to sway public opinion by giving a usually false impression that their favored candidate is "doing well" in hopes of propping up their chances.  Time after time, liberal candidates generally under perform at the ballot box as compared to their poll numbers ....

Edited by KirtFalcon
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4 minutes ago, Wild74 said:

I don't think Cruz will win by as much in this election compared to the first round when he basically had a nobody with no money running against him, but I think Cruz will win by at least 700,000 votes if turnout is comparable to the primaries. 

Oh sure, I can totally see this race being closer than recent years. White liberals in urban areas sure love their "charismatic" white liberal candidates. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • Mr. P changed the title to 🥊 CRUZ vs. BETO

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