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MavGrad's NCAA Week 7 Preview (2018)


Coach Rab

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TEAMS WE WATCH

Thursday October 11

Texas Tech at TCU  6:30  ESPN

If there was ever a year for Texas Tech to clip TCU, it would be this one.  Play disruptive defense and keep running your O and you can win this.  I still don't trust TCU's QB.  I may not ever fully trust this kid in a big game...  So lets go Tech by 4 late.

Saturday October 13

#2 Georgia at #13 LSU  2:30  CBS

I like Georgia in this one.  Returning QB thats been playing great.  RBs that are good.  Solid defense.  Great coach.  LSU getting a reality check against Florida...  So with all of that... LSU by 7 at home.

Baylor at #9 Texas  2:30  ESPN

Want to talk about grossly over-ranked?  Texas is just that.  A team that looked completely incompetent against Maryland and blew a huge lead vs OU, seemingly struggled against a bad K State team, and Barely scraped by Tulsa is the #9 team in the country?  Give me a break.  This team seems to have its act together, but not hardly a top 10 team right now. I run through all of that just, not really to give a reality check to the SDC posters... Most of you guys are ecstatic, but not unrealistic... But I say all of this because this team is not fully formed or developed yet, and will probably lose 1 or 2 more...  However, Baylor is in town... So Texas wins this one by 10.

#22 Texas A&M at South Carolina  2:30  SECN

Aggies win this one.  #CoachingMatters.  A&M by 6.

Missouri at #1 Alabama  6:00  ESPN

The storyline in this one is "Will Tua finally play in a 4th quarter?"  My answer: NOPE.  Bama by 30.

OTHER GAMES TO WATCH

#7 Washington at #17 Oregon  2:30  ABC

This is like a 11:30 game for these guys.  I didn't know they woke up that early on the west coast.  I said this in another thread...  Washington and Stanford are the only competent teams in the PAC and they both have a loss.  I will take the Huskies by 8.

#15 Wisconsin at #12 Michigan  6:30  ABC

This one will be fun to watch.  I think Harbaugh finally has a decent team and wins this one by 3.

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I’m not sure about BAMA by 30. I figure mizzou will put up some points on our defense, especially with a starting corner missing. But their defense is even worse than ours, and Tua and company may score on every possession. I’m curious as to if we see more of the packages with Tua and Jalen on the field together. 

I have other questions:

How many 7-8 win seasons will South Carolina fans put up with out of Muschamp? 

Ditto LSU and Coach O, but at 9-10 wins?

If Kentucky gets to 10 wins this year, will Stoops get looks for better jobs? Will he make a move? 

With the big $$ they are paying, what is the timeline for necessary success at Florida and A&M? 

How long a leash are the coaches at the Mississippi schools on? MSU was supposed to be a contender in the West, now the only bowl they’re hopeful for is full of eggs. Ole Miss is 3 years removed from back to back wins over BAMA, and now they’re an embarrassment. 

And lastly, how long will it take the Auburn folks to figure out the master plan that Nick Saban, Kirby Smart and I played out on them last year? 

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How many 7-8 win seasons will South Carolina fans put up with out of Muschamp? 

Outside of that three years run with Spurrier, 8 wins is pretty good for South Carolina. I don't know how good they can really be with Clemson being such a machine right now.

Ditto LSU and Coach O, but at 9-10 wins?

I think the better question is how long does Coach O get if he cannot beat Alabama. That's really what got Miles fired.

If Kentucky gets to 10 wins this year, will Stoops get looks for better jobs? Will he make a move? 

He should look to make a move. I don't think its sustainable at Kentucky. 

With the big $$ they are paying, what is the timeline for necessary success at Florida and A&M? 

I think Aggies will be patient until year 3 for Jimbo. 

I think Mullen depends if he can make the Florida offense look competent. 

How long a leash are the coaches at the Mississippi schools on? MSU was supposed to be a contender in the West, now the only bowl they’re hopeful for is full of eggs. Ole Miss is 3 years removed from back to back wins over BAMA, and now they’re an embarrassment. 

Ole Miss isn't going to be good until they are finished with their penalties. Of course, beating Alabama back to back years is probably what brought on the investigation. Don't mess with the power structure. 

And lastly, how long will it take the Auburn folks to figure out the master plan that Nick Saban, Kirby Smart and I played out on them last year? 

Auburn probably already thinks that (some of those gene pools need more genes), but if Gus beats Saban once every 3 years then he will continue to survive. 

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21 minutes ago, Valhalla said:

 

Auburn probably already thinks that (some of those gene pools need more genes), but if Gus beats Saban once every 3 years then he will continue to survive. 

Which is why we put the plan in place. However, now that he got a monster contract through 2024, we don’t have to let them win as many. They won’t be able to afford to fire him until about ‘21-22. Look for them to have another batch of transfers and Gus to coach his rear end off then. That should get him extended through ‘30. 

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49 minutes ago, JustAFan11 said:

If you base your rankings off losses then Texas is probably at the bottom of the 1-loss teams but if the rankings are about wins then Texas is the only 1-loss team to have 3 top 25 wins. 

Wisconsin and their home loss to BYU beg to differ! haha

 

 

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Washington @ Oregon is a 2:30 CT game, so that is 12:30 start for them, not 11:30.

 

As for Texas, looking back at the last few seasons we've all seen moments it looked like Texas was 'back'. Only to see them implode a week or two later. That said, I'm excited about the outcome of the season to this point, but also remaining cautious. Even still, whatever argument can be made about their ranking, similar arguments can be made about most any other 1 loss team. The difference is who they've each beaten. That is why Texas is getting the nod.

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8 hours ago, JustAFan11 said:

If you base your rankings off losses then Texas is probably at the bottom of the 1-loss teams but if the rankings are about wins then Texas is the only 1-loss team to have 3 top 25 wins. 

Doesn’t LSU have 3?

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7 hours ago, Lobo97 said:

Washington @ Oregon is a 2:30 CT game, so that is 12:30 start for them, not 11:30.

 

As for Texas, looking back at the last few seasons we've all seen moments it looked like Texas was 'back'. Only to see them implode a week or two later. That said, I'm excited about the outcome of the season to this point, but also remaining cautious. Even still, whatever argument can be made about their ranking, similar arguments can be made about most any other 1 loss team. The difference is who they've each beaten. That is why Texas is getting the nod.

Serious question... Texas May have more quality wins... but have they looked better than the teams they are in front of?  

I’m not really downing Texas.  I think they are set for a season you’ve been waiting for with 9-10 wins... I just think AP rankings are just over-reactions each week.  Remember me bashing them for jumping LSU so high?  I think I ripped them when they rushed A&M in the rankings too.  

I would have to really look at the teams to do a complete ranking, but outside of the top 7-8 they whiff on a lot of schools

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9 hours ago, MavGrad99 said:

Serious question... Texas May have more quality wins... but have they looked better than the teams they are in front of?  

I’m not really downing Texas.  I think they are set for a season you’ve been waiting for with 9-10 wins... I just think AP rankings are just over-reactions each week.  Remember me bashing them for jumping LSU so high?  I think I ripped them when they rushed A&M in the rankings too.  

I would have to really look at the teams to do a complete ranking, but outside of the top 7-8 they whiff on a lot of schools

Just going back to NC State @ #20 (the last 0 or 1 loss power 5 team in the top 25) you've got...(these were rankings at the time of the games)

#9 Texas (W's over 7, 17 & 22, L to unranked P5)

#10 UCF (1 W over P5)

#11 OU (won Head to Head)

#12 Michigan (3 W's over P5, including Maryland, L to 12)

#13 LSU (W's over 7,8 but L to 22)

#14 Florida (W's over 5, 14, L to unranked P5)

#15 Wisconsin (W's over 2 P5, but L to G5 at home)

#16 Miami (W's over 2 P5, L to 25)

#17 Oregon (W over 24 is only P5 win, L to 7)

#18 Kentucky (W over 14, 25, L to unranked P5)

#19 Colorado (W's over 3 P5)

#20 NC State (W's over 2 P5)

Just going off of pure rankings, which most AP voters only look at, Texas has the most quality wins with LSU, Florida and Kentucky being the only others with even 2 wins over ranked opponents. UCF will obviously have a gripe. LSU probably has the next biggest gripe. 

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54 minutes ago, TxFight said:

Just going back to NC State @ #20 (the last 0 or 1 loss power 5 team in the top 25) you've got...(these were rankings at the time of the games)

#9 Texas (W's over 7, 17 & 22, L to unranked P5)

#10 UCF (1 W over P5)

#11 OU (won Head to Head)

#12 Michigan (3 W's over P5, including Maryland, L to 12)

#13 LSU (W's over 7,8 but L to 22)

#14 Florida (W's over 5, 14, L to unranked P5)

#15 Wisconsin (W's over 2 P5, but L to G5 at home)

#16 Miami (W's over 2 P5, L to 25)

#17 Oregon (W over 24 is only P5 win, L to 7)

#18 Kentucky (W over 14, 25, L to unranked P5)

#19 Colorado (W's over 3 P5)

#20 NC State (W's over 2 P5)

Just going off of pure rankings, which most AP voters only look at, Texas has the most quality wins with LSU, Florida and Kentucky being the only others with even 2 wins over ranked opponents. UCF will obviously have a gripe. LSU probably has the next biggest gripe. 

LSU is in the same boat as Texas if you ask me...  Sure they have some good wins... but they haven't necessarily been pretty.

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35 minutes ago, MavGrad99 said:

LSU is in the same boat as Texas if you ask me...  Sure they have some good wins... but they haven't necessarily been pretty.

I don’t think any game from Texas will be pretty this year. Kansas is the only team I’m comfortable predicting Texas to win by double digits. 

This Texas team is built like a Big 10 team in their playing styles. The difference is Ehlinger is a difference maker with his legs. 

If Texas has to rely on style points to get a New Years bowl then they’ll be in trouble. 

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1 hour ago, MavGrad99 said:

LSU is in the same boat as Texas if you ask me...  Sure they have some good wins... but they haven't necessarily been pretty.

I don't disagree. But I think at the end of the day you've still got to get the credit for the W's. We'll know a heck of a lot more about both teams by the times we wake up on Nov. 4th. LSU has Georiga, Mississippi State and Alabama inbetween now and then. Texas gets Baylor, then comes out of the bye week @ Okie State and vs. West Virginia. LSU should go 1-2, which to me would solidify their ranking in the mid teens. Texas SHOULD find victories of Baylor & OK State if they are truly improved, setting up a top 10, probable regular season title defining game against #6 West Virginia. 

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