Projected Bowl Pairings

[Coach Rab]

2 hours ago, WETSU said:

To be fair, I sort of agree with lion. I don’t know what you’ve seen from LSU to think them unbeatable but I see a team that is very capable of going down to any team capable of limiting their running game. Yes their defense is elite, but their offense is limited enough that any team capable of slowing down the running game stands a chance to beat them. That is something A&M has done to EVERY opponent this season. So this game will be won or lost by QB play on both sides, and neither shows a definitive edge if you’re being honest with yourself. On the road, against a team desperate to beat you, with what is sure to be a prime time atmosphere, I don’t see how you can be so bold as to think this isn’t a closer game than everyone expects. This isn’t the same coaching staff that let LSU rush for 300+ and win every game. I’m not saying A&M will win or is even the favorite, just that your talk of lion not having common sense isn’t logical here. There are plenty of legitimate arguments that can back his belief. He may not be the best at pointing them out, but they are there. 

I am not saying, and would never say with a straight face that this LSU team is going to dominate anyone on the scoreboard.  But you brought up Alabama... sure, LSU scored 0 on Bama and A&M scored 20+, but you also gave up 45 and the starting QB was sitting on his butt in the 4th quarter.  A&M also gave up close to 600 yards in the game.  LSU managed to give up 500 yards, but still made Tua look human at times during this game, also causing him to throw his first INT this season.

Now other common opponents... Auburn... LSU won that game, and A&M lost to them.  Auburn literally had 250 yards total on you guys and won.  A&M made mistakes.  LSU vs Auburn had 0 INTs on offense, but forced 2-3 turnovers and managed over 350 yards of offense.  And you want to talk about Special teams?  LSU may have the best in the country this year.

Example 3: LSU allowed 250 yards and forced 4 INTs vs Miss St.  while netting only 230 yards on offense.  So A&M has the blue print on how to beat a QB that can't throw the ball into the ocean right?  NOPE.  240 yards and 2 TDs allowed to Nicky Fitz, 88 more rushing and 2 more TDs.  And another trend in all 3 of these games.  at least 1 INT by the QB.... Burrow, while he is the NCAA version of Trent Dilfer (doesn't do anything special, but not many mistakes), manages this offense like he is a poor man's Tom Brady.  

So I am very confident that LSU should win this game.  I don't know how anyone can expect A&M to win this game with as much confidence as Lloyd Christmas over there...  Would I be shocked if A&M wins this game?  Nope.  But Mond will have to play like he is done well against great defenses... and with that, I would not put money on it...

[Coach Rab]

12 minutes ago, WETSU said:

Why don’t you counter what I’ve said. Show me what isn’t “common sense” about anything I’ve said. 

done.  and defending anything Lion said is dumbest thing you can do... he has never used any factual information to back up his predictions and statements.  He is the piglet sucking your teet...

[WETSU]

2 hours ago, DB2point0 said:

I haven’t said much on the matter but I’ll weigh in now.  I’d say both have good defenses, but I figure LSU defense is better all the way around.  The aggies’ defense isn’t good against the pass.   Comparing offenses I think it’s a wash, maybe LSU has a slight advantage.  On the road I’d say LSU is a 3-4 pt fave

Against common opponents only which is Auburn, Miss st and Bama:

Pass YPG

LSU 187

A&M 216

 

TD/INT ratio

LSU 1-2

A&M 3-5

 

Rushing YPG

LSU 82

A&M 131

 

Points Per game 

LSU 14

A&M 20 

 

Now those are the stats against all 3 teams they have played in common so no argument can be made about schedule. Except A&M played all 3 on the road and LSU played 2 of them at home. But head to head none the less. 

Your statement that LSU might have the edge on offense in inaccurate in just about every major statistical category if we are speaking offense only. I know LSU is better defensively but I’m specifically addressing you saying LSU has a “slight advantage” on offense. 

[WETSU]

7 minutes ago, MavGrad99 said:

I am not saying, and would never say with a straight face that this LSU team is going to dominate anyone on the scoreboard.  But you brought up Alabama... sure, LSU scored 0 on Bama and A&M scored 20+, but you also gave up 45 and the starting QB was sitting on his butt in the 4th quarter.  A&M also gave up close to 600 yards in the game.  LSU managed to give up 500 yards, but still made Tua look human at times during this game, also causing him to throw his first INT this season.

Now other common opponents... Auburn... LSU won that game, and A&M lost to them.  Auburn literally had 250 yards total on you guys and won.  A&M made mistakes.  LSU vs Auburn had 0 INTs on offense, but forced 2-3 turnovers and managed over 350 yards of offense.  And you want to talk about Special teams?  LSU may have the best in the country this year.

Example 3: LSU allowed 250 yards and forced 4 INTs vs Miss St.  while netting only 230 yards on offense.  So A&M has the blue print on how to beat a QB that can't throw the ball into the ocean right?  NOPE.  240 yards and 2 TDs allowed to Nicky Fitz, 88 more rushing and 2 more TDs.  And another trend in all 3 of these games.  at least 1 INT by the QB.... Burrow, while he is the NCAA version of Trent Dilfer (doesn't do anything special, but not many mistakes), manages this offense like he is a poor man's Tom Brady.  

So I am very confident that LSU should win this game.  I don't know how anyone can expect A&M to win this game with as much confidence as Lloyd Christmas over there...  Would I be shocked if A&M wins this game?  Nope.  But Mond will have to play like he is done well against great defenses... and with that, I would not put money on it...

All valid points. I’m pulling more numbers for a counter. Please hold 

[WETSU]

Here are the remaining defensive stats in only the common opponents for LSU vs A&M...

Total YPG 

LSU 389

A&M 416

 

Pass YPG

LSU 185

A&M 295

 

TD/INT ratio

LSU 3-7

A&M 8-0

 

Rushing YPG

LSU 205

A&M 121

PPG

LSU 18

A&M 33

 

 

So looking at that hat one thing just jumps out. A&M doesn’t force turnovers and LSU does. That to me is what boost LSU tremendously in the PPG and passing yardage department defensively.

 

 

But Mav this is while I’ll say that I believe A&M has a very good chance. This game will come down to turnovers by the QB. I think both teams completely shut down the running game. So it’s entirely on QBs imo to win this game. Mond has proved to be better at driving the ball against the common defenses but LSU has forced more turnovers from QBs. As I’ve said, on the road I think A&M loses this game by 7 or more. But at home, I think they slow burrow just enough to negate a few of the mistakes Mond will likely make against that stingy defense. These two teams are what happens when neither team is really equipped to take advantage of the others weaknesses imo. I don’t believe LSU or A&M will have much success offensively. I truly do see why you are so confident in LSU in this one, but I think it’s misguided. But I’m just a homer I suppose. 

[Coach Rab]

1 hour ago, WETSU said:

Here are the remaining defensive stats in only the common opponents for LSU vs A&M...

Total YPG 

LSU 389

A&M 416

 

Pass YPG

LSU 185

A&M 295

 

TD/INT ratio

LSU 3-7

A&M 8-0

 

Rushing YPG

LSU 205

A&M 121

PPG

LSU 18

A&M 33

 

 

So looking at that hat one thing just jumps out. A&M doesn’t force turnovers and LSU does. That to me is what boost LSU tremendously in the PPG and passing yardage department defensively.

 

 

But Mav this is while I’ll say that I believe A&M has a very good chance. This game will come down to turnovers by the QB. I think both teams completely shut down the running game. So it’s entirely on QBs imo to win this game. Mond has proved to be better at driving the ball against the common defenses but LSU has forced more turnovers from QBs. As I’ve said, on the road I think A&M loses this game by 7 or more. But at home, I think they slow burrow just enough to negate a few of the mistakes Mond will likely make against that stingy defense. These two teams are what happens when neither team is really equipped to take advantage of the others weaknesses imo. I don’t believe LSU or A&M will have much success offensively. I truly do see why you are so confident in LSU in this one, but I think it’s misguided. But I’m just a homer I suppose. 

you said it yourself... it will come down to QB play.  And IMO that means not making the mistakes that cost you a game.  So essentially, we are talking about Mond and his INTs...  Burrow has thrown 4.  2 of them were forced INTs trying to win the game vs Florida.  Those didn't lose LSU the game, they were him trying to win it.  1 vs Bama.  And a really bad one vs Ms St.  Now we look at Mond, 2 vs Bama, 2 vs Ark, 1 vs Kentucky, 1 vs Ms St, 1 vs Auburn... that is 7 INTs in his last 6 games compared to 6 TDs...  He also only has 1 rushing TD in those 6 games.  

Like I said, A&M has a chance, but I would hope you can run the ball vs LSU and keep it out of the QBs hands with the current trend.

[Coach Rab]

1 hour ago, Hlion said:

Actually fake news 

out of your close to 35,000 posts, only 3% try to post factual information... most of it repeated from another user.  #facts

[Valhalla]

26 minutes ago, Hlion said:

Doesn't make it any less true just you don't like the content 

Go tell that to Donald Trump.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

21 hours ago, MavGrad99 said:

You are a moron.  Look at LSU’s schedule. A&M might be .500 with the same schedule...

Man. I came here to say "YEAH WELL A&M HAS THE #2 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE".... not knowing LSU was #1. 

But yeah, can't argue with your first point. >_>

[JohnnyFootball]

20 hours ago, MavGrad99 said:

Would you like to compare common opponents?

Off the top of my head, LSU beat Auburn by 1 and A&M lost to Auburn by 4. Both close games that could've easily gone the other way. 

There's Alabama who beat A&M 45-23 at home and LSU 29-0 on the road. A&M at least scored a little on them, but gave up more points. 

Pretty comparable until you get to the Mississippi State game. We will both be playing common opponents this week. I expect LSU to look MUCH better against Arkansas than A&M did. Hoping A&M beats Ole Miss in the same fashion LSU did.

A&M vs LSU should be a good one this year. Not unreasonable to think A&M could upset LSU, but you've gotta bank on LSU. Funny enough, my model has A&M with a 52% chance of winning that game at the moment (although that'll surely change by that game). Same model predicted we'd lose to Auburn 28-20. 

[Coach Rab]

5 minutes ago, JohnnyFootball said:

Off the top of my head, LSU beat Auburn by 1 and A&M lost to Auburn by 4. Both close games that could've easily gone the other way. 

There's Alabama who beat A&M 45-23 at home and LSU 29-0 on the road. A&M at least scored a little on them, but gave up more points. 

Pretty comparable until you get to the Mississippi State game. We will both be playing common opponents this week. I expect LSU to look MUCH better against Arkansas than A&M did. Hoping A&M beats Ole Miss in the same fashion LSU did.

A&M vs LSU should be a good one this year. Not unreasonable to think A&M could upset LSU, but you've gotta bank on LSU. Funny enough, my model has A&M with a 52% chance of winning that game at the moment (although that'll surely change by that game). Same model predicted we'd lose to Auburn 28-20. 

I am all for Dave Aranda staying at LSU, but after what I saw from LSU’s offense vs Bama, I would take the first Big time HC position offered to me

[JohnnyFootball]

Yeah LSU's defense is scary good. I could see the A&M vs LSU game being something like 16-10, if even that much lol

[WETSU]

2 hours ago, MavGrad99 said:

you said it yourself... it will come down to QB play.  And IMO that means not making the mistakes that cost you a game.  So essentially, we are talking about Mond and his INTs...  Burrow has thrown 4.  2 of them were forced INTs trying to win the game vs Florida.  Those didn't lose LSU the game, they were him trying to win it.  1 vs Bama.  And a really bad one vs Ms St.  Now we look at Mond, 2 vs Bama, 2 vs Ark, 1 vs Kentucky, 1 vs Ms St, 1 vs Auburn... that is 7 INTs in his last 6 games compared to 6 TDs...  He also only has 1 rushing TD in those 6 games.  

Like I said, A&M has a chance, but I would hope you can run the ball vs LSU and keep it out of the QBs hands with the current trend.

The INTs vs Bama don’t count if you’re not counting the ones vs Florida. A&M had no shot of beating Bama and was just trying to win just like Burrow against Florida. 

But there’s more to winning the game with QB than just not making mistakes. If it comes down to a QB being forced to win it for his team, Mond is better suited for that than Burrow. If it comes down to just not losing I agree the edge goes to Burrow. So here we are at an impass. Will LSU force turnovers? That’s the deciding factor. If LSU forces turnovers, they win. If mond doesn’t throw an INT, A&M will win. I’d bet considerable money on that. This game will end up like every other A&M has played. I believe they will move the ball on LSU. I believe LSU will struggle to run and be forced to throw against A&M. And it a relatively low score game (20-16 ish) the deciding factor will be monds turnovers. I can almost guarantee A&M won’t force any. So it will boil down to if LSU gets that INT or two needed. Because if all things are equal in the turnover department, I think A&M wins a very low scoring battle. 

[ETXfan16]

I don't think A&M can score on LSU's defense. I also don't think LSU can really score period. So i'm picking LSU just because of record lol.

[Sportsfanatic1]

I think LSU will shut down the QB draw that Fisher loves too call. Forcing Mond to throw the ball which has danger written all over it.

[DB2point0]

9 hours ago, WETSU said:

Against common opponents only which is Auburn, Miss st and Bama:

Pass YPG

LSU 187

A&M 216

 

TD/INT ratio

LSU 1-2

A&M 3-5

 

Rushing YPG

LSU 82

A&M 131

 

Points Per game 

LSU 14

A&M 20 

 

Now those are the stats against all 3 teams they have played in common so no argument can be made about schedule. Except A&M played all 3 on the road and LSU played 2 of them at home. But head to head none the less. 

Your statement that LSU might have the edge on offense in inaccurate in just about every major statistical category if we are speaking offense only. I know LSU is better defensively but I’m specifically addressing you saying LSU has a “slight advantage” on offense. 

Like I said, comparing offense it’s a WASH, Maybe LSU has a slight edge.  Stats can be misleading and not tell you the entire story.  Each team could’ve matched up against those opponents differently as well.  LSU is 2-1 against those three, aTm is 0-3.  So you see what stats are good for.  I think in the matchup against each other.  Lsu’s Offense will be favored over aTm’s Offense vs lsu’s Defense.  

[WETSU]

1 hour ago, DB2point0 said:

Like I said, comparing offense it’s a WASH, Maybe LSU has a slight edge.  Stats can be misleading and not tell you the entire story.  Each team could’ve matched up against those opponents differently as well.  LSU is 2-1 against those three, aTm is 0-3.  So you see what stats are good for.  I think in the matchup against each other.  Lsu’s Offense will be favored over aTm’s Offense vs lsu’s Defense.  

How on earth do you look at that and see any sort of “slight edge” for LSU in terms of offense? They trail in every category I listed. 

I understand LSU has a better defense, but that does not in any way give them an offensive edge. I’m not sure you can even read after that statement. I literally looked up the facts and numbers for you and you still don’t see it...

[DB2point0]

8 hours ago, WETSU said:

How on earth do you look at that and see any sort of “slight edge” for LSU in terms of offense? They trail in every category I listed. 

I understand LSU has a better defense, but that does not in any way give them an offensive edge. I’m not sure you can even read after that statement. I literally looked up the facts and numbers for you and you still don’t see it...

I’ve watched their offense against other teams other than the three you listed.  Like I said, aTm and LSU May have matched up differently against those thre teams.  I’m looking at every game, eyeball test.  I know how Mond handles pressure.  LSU has been able to pass the ball against some other pretty good defenses.  You can study stats all you want, sometimes they don’t tell the entire truth.  LSU is a slight favorite on the road.  3-4 pts

[Coach Rab]

I have to lean more towards WETSU... A&M’s offense might be more productive and have more overall talent than LSU’s... but it hasn’t been more effective in terms of Ws 

[WETSU]

49 minutes ago, DB2point0 said:

I’ve watched their offense against other teams other than the three you listed.  Like I said, aTm and LSU May have matched up differently against those thre teams.  I’m looking at every game, eyeball test.  I know how Mond handles pressure.  LSU has been able to pass the ball against some other pretty good defenses.  You can study stats all you want, sometimes they don’t tell the entire truth.  LSU is a slight favorite on the road.  3-4 pts

And against other teams A&M has looked far better on offense than LSU. I didn’t even mention A&M and Mond putting up 430 passing yards against a top 5 defense in Clemson, because LSU didn’t play them and so I didn’t want to use those stats. Or LSU vs other people. When comparing stats like this, the most fair way is to use common opponents. I could pull ever opponent and A&M would look far better than they do now if you want to do that. 

Nobody who has even the slightest clue of what they are looking at watches LSU and A&M over the entire season and think LSU has a better offense because of the eyeball test. I’m not sure what you have been watching. I’m not saying LSU is awful and A&M is great offensively, I’m saying that they are two mediocre offenses. 

[WETSU]

10 minutes ago, MavGrad99 said:

I have to lean more towards WETSU... A&M’s offense might be more productive and have more overall talent than LSU’s... but it hasn’t been more effective in terms of Ws 

I think A&M not knowing “how to win” has been the reason behind that. They doubled up auburn statistically on both sides offense and defense, yet still lost. Auburn had better stats than LSU in their game if I recall but LSU found the way to win. It takes time to build a culture that is “use to winning.” LSU has it and A&M doesn’t right now. And in a year or two hopefully A&M can close out games like that. 

 

As as far as miss st, it’s hard to honestly compare the two imo. LSU didn’t look very good either offensively for about 3 quarters of that game and it was at home. A&M played on the road. I know that’s no excuse but I’m sure you can understand how offenses can struggle more in a prime time game on the road in the sec than they would at home. Yes A&M played poorly against their common opponents, but I fully believe A&M is 2-1 as well if they got two home games of the 3 like LSU did. Maybe 1-2 but certainly not 0-3. And the Ws is why you think LSU is a lock, not the statistical side of it. 

[DB2point0]

14 minutes ago, WETSU said:

And against other teams A&M has looked far better on offense than LSU. I didn’t even mention A&M and Mond putting up 430 passing yards against a top 5 defense in Clemson, because LSU didn’t play them and so I didn’t want to use those stats. Or LSU vs other people. When comparing stats like this, the most fair way is to use common opponents. I could pull ever opponent and A&M would look far better than they do now if you want to do that. 

Nobody who has even the slightest clue of what they are looking at watches LSU and A&M over the entire season and think LSU has a better offense because of the eyeball test. I’m not sure what you have been watching. I’m not saying LSU is awful and A&M is great offensively, I’m saying that they are two mediocre offenses. 

Dude I said it’s almost a fricking wash!!!!!!  That means coin toss!!!  Either or!!!!  My opinion is the LSU Offense is slightly better.  That’s it.  Quit fricking arguing just for the sake of arguing!!!!  Geez!  

[DB2point0]

26 minutes ago, MavGrad99 said:

I have to lean more towards WETSU... A&M’s offense might be more productive and have more overall talent than LSU’s... but it hasn’t been more effective in terms of Ws 

Qb play, burrow isn’t great, but he’s better than Mond imo 

[WETSU]

19 minutes ago, DB2point0 said:

Dude I said it’s almost a fricking wash!!!!!!  That means coin toss!!!  Either or!!!!  My opinion is the LSU Offense is slightly better.  That’s it.  Quit fricking arguing just for the sake of arguing!!!!  Geez!  

Admit you’re wrong and I will. You’re the biggest sore  loser on this board. You made a dumb statement, I proved you wrong with facts (like I always do) and you continue to cry and spout opinions with no evidence to back them up. If you don’t like being wrong, stop sticking your nose in against me. Haven’t you learned your lesson by now after pretty much years of me proving you wrong with facts and you just repeating the same factless arguments? 

[DB2point0]

55 minutes ago, WETSU said:

Admit you’re wrong and I will. You’re the biggest sore  loser on this board. You made a dumb statement, I proved you wrong with facts (like I always do) and you continue to cry and spout opinions with no evidence to back them up. If you don’t like being wrong, stop sticking your nose in against me. Haven’t you learned your lesson by now after pretty much years of me proving you wrong with facts and you just repeating the same factless arguments? 

Yea you used stats!  Give yourself a cookie.  It’s called an opinion.  The biggest fact of your argument was LSU is 3-0 against the three teams you picked.  It is of my opinion that burrow is what separates the two offenses.  Statistically speaking, I don’t care.  Go climb a deer stand or something, calm down.