College Football Playoff Predictions

[Lobo97]

There are many who do not feel the current playoff is a 'true playoff'. We get it. This thread is not that discussion. 

 

2 weeks from Sunday, we will know who will be playing in the College Football Playoff....2 Weeks!

With 2 weeks to go, there are still 9 teams with a legit shot (some more than others) of making it. These are those teams with their record and quality games left...

10-0 Bama (Auburn and Georgia left)
10-0 Clemson (ACC Championship left)
10-0 Notre Dame (Syracuse)
9-1 Michigan (Ohio State, possible B10 Championship)
9-1 Georgia (Bama)
9-1 OU (WV, possible B12 Championship)
9-1 Washington State (Washington, possible P12 Champ)
8-1 West Virginia (OU, possible B12 Championship)
9-1 Ohio State (Michigan, possible B10 Championship)

Who do you think makes it?

[Coach Rab]

Bama - 0 losses
Clemson - 0 losses
Notre Dame - 0 losses
Ohio St- wins B10

[Lobo97]

I think there are currently 2 locks, and one of them is not Bama...

Clemson and Notre Dame.  I don't see either of them losing, and can't see any situation where either of them, undefeated, misses the playoff. 

[Lobo97]

1 minute ago, MavGrad99 said:

Bama - 0 losses
Clemson - 0 losses
Notre Dame - 0 losses
Ohio St- wins B10

So if OU (whose lone loss is to a Top 15 team, by 3) beats WV, then beats WV again in the B12 Championship game, you think Ohio State (who lost to an unranked team, by 29) jumps OU?

[ETXfan16]

This is how I think the playoff will look

1. Alabama vs 4. Alabama

2. Alabama vs 3. Alabama

Alabama will play the winner of Alabama/Alabama.

Your 2018 CFP Champion - the University of Alabama.

[Lobo97]

Here's where I think it gets the most interesting...

While I believe Bama finishes undefeated and makes it, the Georgia game is not a lock in victory. 

 

So, what if Georgia beats Bama and Michigan beats Ohio State. While it would seem implausible for Bama to be left out, I don't think undefeated Clemson and ND get left out. MI is already at #4. If they beat #10 Ohio State, would they really be left out over Bama? And they wouldn't seriously put Bama over the team that just beat them would they?

[Lobo97]

Here's another interesting scenario...

 

What if,

Georgia beats Bama

Ohio State beats Michigan

OU wins out

 

Clemson and ND are in. I think Georgia would be as well. So who gets the 4th spot...Bama? B10 Champ Ohio State (with a big loss to unranked)? B12 Champ OU?

[Lobo97]

Then there's Washington State. Any chance at all they make it?

Bama beats Georgia. Ohio State beats Michigan. Ok State beats WV. WV beats OU. Washington State beats Washington, and wins P12 Championship. 

 

Who gets #4 in this scenario...Ohio State, or Washington State?

[Lobo97]

Here is my prediction....

Bama
Clemson 
ND
OU

[TxFight]

How I try to think about it is, rank them as if they all had the same amount of losses.

Bama is going to be in the playoff if they only have 1 loss. They would be a top 2 ranked team if all had 1 loss. 

Clemson has no shot if they have 1 loss. Their SOS or lack thereof hurts them.

Notre Dame would need help if they have 1 loss. Thinking, OU/Michigan/West Virginia all might have a good argument over them.

Michigan with 1 loss is not a lock for the playoff. They are big Bama fans. 

Geogia with 1 loss is going to be in the playoff. If everyone else wins out, Michigan going to get shafted.

OU just needs 1 team 2-4 to lose and they are going to jump into the playoff if they win out.

Washington State would need chaos to happen. They are going to be ranked behind just about everyone if all wind up with 1 loss.

West Virginia needs slightly less chaos than Washington State. We're talking something like Michigan beats Ohio State but loses Big 10 champ and Notre Dame goes down to USC.

I don't personally see a scenario other than everyone losing that gets Ohio State in. 

 

 

 

[Valhalla]

1 hour ago, Lobo97 said:

So if OU (whose lone loss is to a Top 15 team, by 3) beats WV, then beats WV again in the B12 Championship game, you think Ohio State (who lost to an unranked team, by 29) jumps OU?

I think the perception of Oklahoma's defense will be held against them when comparing them to any one-loss team that isn't Washington State.

[Lobo97]

3 minutes ago, Valhalla said:

I think the perception of Oklahoma's defense will be held against them when comparing them to any one-loss team that isn't Washington State.

Let's say that 1 loss team is Ohio State though. The perception of OU's defense will be greater than the perception of Ohio State's 29 point loss to an unranked team?

[Mr. P]

OU ain't winning out. 

[Lobo97]

13 minutes ago, TxFight said:

How I try to think about it is, rank them as if they all had the same amount of losses.

Bama is going to be in the playoff if they only have 1 loss. They would be a top 2 ranked team if all had 1 loss. 

Clemson has no shot if they have 1 loss. Their SOS or lack thereof hurts them.

Notre Dame would need help if they have 1 loss. Thinking, OU/Michigan/West Virginia all might have a good argument over them.

Michigan with 1 loss is not a lock for the playoff. They are big Bama fans. 

Geogia with 1 loss is going to be in the playoff. If everyone else wins out, Michigan going to get shafted.

OU just needs 1 team 2-4 to lose and they are going to jump into the playoff if they win out.

Washington State would need chaos to happen. They are going to be ranked behind just about everyone if all wind up with 1 loss.

West Virginia needs slightly less chaos than Washington State. We're talking something like Michigan beats Ohio State but loses Big 10 champ and Notre Dame goes down to USC.

I don't personally see a scenario other than everyone losing that gets Ohio State in. 

 

 

 

I don't agree with that. 

I don't see Clemson or ND losing a game at this point. They're both in undefeated. 

That's 2.

If Georgia beats Bama, Georgia is in. 

That's 3. 

Bama is not in the same situation they were last year with Wisconsin and Ohio State. Bama and Wisconsin both finished with 1 loss. Neither won their conference. That's why Bama got in over Wisc. Bama did not win their conference, but Ohio State did. However, Bama had 1 loss, OSU had 2. Bama got in. 

 

This year, if Michigan wins out...

Bama 1 loss - no conference champion.

Michigan 1 loss - conference champion. 

 

There's no reasonable argument that can be made to put Bama in over Michigan, in that scenario. 

[Mr. P]

1 hour ago, Lobo97 said:

Who do you think makes it?

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. SEC runner-up

[JohnnyFootball]

1 minute ago, Lobo97 said:

 

 

There's no reasonable argument that can be made to put Bama in over Michigan, in that scenario. 

This is the CFP Committee. They don't need "reasonable arguments", demonstrably. 

[Lobo97]

We all know that the voters love Alabama. But if they lose to Georgia, the only argument that could be made to put them in would be if.....

 

Ohio State beats Michigan. 

OU loses another game. 

 

While some could still argue the 1 loss conference champions over them...Washington State or OSU, I think Bama would still get in over them. 

[Lobo97]

1 minute ago, JohnnyFootball said:

This is the CFP Committee. They don't need "reasonable arguments", demonstrably. 

'Reasonable' is certainly subjective here, lol. What I mean by that, however, is there would be no argument to be made more heavily in favor of Bama than for Michigan, if it unfolds that way. Last year, one could disagree with Bama getting in over a conference champion, but the 'reasonable' argument could still be made that Bama's 1 loss was to a Top 10 team (at the time). Meanwhile, OSU had 2 losses, one to an unranked team. 

Michigan's only loss this year was in week 1, to the current #3 team, by 7, on the road. If they win out, they would have 4 ranked wins, and a conference championship. I just don't see how they get bumped. 

[Valhalla]

12 minutes ago, Lobo97 said:

I don't agree with that. 

I don't see Clemson or ND losing a game at this point. They're both in undefeated. 

That's 2.

If Georgia beats Bama, Georgia is in. 

That's 3. 

Bama is not in the same situation they were last year with Wisconsin and Ohio State. Bama and Wisconsin both finished with 1 loss. Neither won their conference. That's why Bama got in over Wisc. Bama did not win their conference, but Ohio State did. However, Bama had 1 loss, OSU had 2. Bama got in. 

 

This year, if Michigan wins out...

Bama 1 loss - no conference champion.

Michigan 1 loss - conference champion. 

 

There's no reasonable argument that can be made to put Bama in over Michigan, in that scenario. 

A one loss Alabama isn’t getting left out. 

You can count on that.

[Valhalla]

18 minutes ago, Lobo97 said:

Let's say that 1 loss team is Ohio State though. The perception of OU's defense will be greater than the perception of Ohio State's 29 point loss to an unranked team?

Yes it will be.

[Lobo97]

Just now, Valhalla said:

Yes it will be.

I don't see Ohio State jumping OU, if they both win out. Just my opinion. 

[TxFight]

20 minutes ago, Lobo97 said:

I don't agree with that. 

I don't see Clemson or ND losing a game at this point. They're both in undefeated. 

That's 2.

If Georgia beats Bama, Georgia is in. 

That's 3. 

Bama is not in the same situation they were last year with Wisconsin and Ohio State. Bama and Wisconsin both finished with 1 loss. Neither won their conference. That's why Bama got in over Wisc. Bama did not win their conference, but Ohio State did. However, Bama had 1 loss, OSU had 2. Bama got in. 

 

This year, if Michigan wins out...

Bama 1 loss - no conference champion.

Michigan 1 loss - conference champion. 

 

There's no reasonable argument that can be made to put Bama in over Michigan, in that scenario. 

We'll just respectfully agree to disagree. 

1 Loss Bama  is going to be viewed by the CFP committee as a better candidate than 1 loss Michigan. Just look at where the rest of the Big 10 falls in the rankings (especially compared to other SEC schools with the same amount of losses) compared to the SEC. And the CFP committee has already proven in past actions that conference championships are simply viewed as another data point and not necessarily the end all/be all. 

[Lobo97]

12 minutes ago, Valhalla said:

A one loss Alabama isn’t getting left out. 

You can count on that.

I think it's a moot point anyway, bc I think Bama beats Georgia and I think OSU beats Michigan. 

 

But if Georgia beat Bama and Michigan beat Ohio State, and wins the B10, Bama will be left out. 

[TxFight]

12 minutes ago, Valhalla said:

Yes it will be.

I disagree, otherwise OSU would be sitting right there with or ahead of OU already. OU can add possibly 2 more highly ranked wins to their resume. Ohio state can at best add 1 highly ranked and 1 top 20ish ranked win. 

[Lobo97]

1 minute ago, TxFight said:

We'll just respectfully agree to disagree. 

1 Loss Bama  is going to be viewed by the CFP committee as a better candidate than 1 loss Michigan. Just look at where the rest of the Big 10 falls in the rankings (especially compared to other SEC schools with the same amount of losses) compared to the SEC. And the CFP committee has already proven in past actions that conference championships are simply viewed as another data point and not necessarily the end all/be all. 

Based on what? You mention the rankings, let's look at them...

 

If Bama loses to Georgia, they would finish with 3 wins against Top 25 teams. 

If Michigan wins out, they would finish with 5 wins against Top 25 teams. And they would be a conference champion. 

So what would make Bama a better candidate? Just because they're Bama?