Newton (13-0) vs. East Bernard (13-1), Class 3A (D-II) Semifinals

[EazyMoney]

1 hour ago, trueblue82 said:

Newton put in their 3rd grade after halftime. 

That’s funny.  

[Pax]

I follow the ratings on Pigskin, and I agree with them most of the time, but I think there is a flaw in how the rating system works for large spread games.  Newton isn't the only team at all that falls into this category, but I picked Newton to do this with.  Obviously, Newton is really good, so there are actually games where they are favored by ridiculous spreads, and Newton loses ground in the ratings because they aren't jerks who run up the score.  They were favored by 82 in one game.  Come on, now.  Could Newton have beat New Waverly by 82?  Without a doubt, yes.  They could probably beat them by 120 or more, but nobody would respect them if they did that.  So, Newton drops in the rating department because they only beat New Waverly by 61.  Going down the list of games, outside the Gilmer game - the only games where Newton failed to cover the spread were those games where they were favored by 56 or more.  I think to get a better feel for how good Newton really is, you'd need to look at only those games with reasonable spreads.  I chose spreads of 30 or under.  In those games, the average spread is 16.3, and Newton wins those games by an average of 41.2, so they beat the spread by an average of 24.8.  So, theoretically, Newton's rating quite possibly should be about 24.8 points higher than it is.  Currently, Newton sits at 180.46.  This would bring them to 205.26 - which is good enough to be ranked #1 in every classification except 6A, where they would be ranked #2 (per Pigskin).

 

To be fair, this "flaw" is most certainly there for the top teams in every class, so all those top teams who beat the dog out of lesser teams, and still drop in the ratings because covering the spread would require being a terrible sport, should probably be higher too, so if I did this for all teams, the rankings might end up right back where they are - with just higher ratings for all teams.  I just thought this was interesting.

[Robhollow84]

21 minutes ago, Pax said:

I follow the ratings on Pigskin, and I agree with them most of the time, but I think there is a flaw in how the rating system works for large spread games.  Newton isn't the only team at all that falls into this category, but I picked Newton to do this with.  Obviously, Newton is really good, so there are actually games where they are favored by ridiculous spreads, and Newton loses ground in the ratings because they aren't jerks who run up the score.  They were favored by 82 in one game.  Come on, now.  Could Newton have beat New Waverly by 82?  Without a doubt, yes.  They could probably beat them by 120 or more, but nobody would respect them if they did that.  So, Newton drops in the rating department because they only beat New Waverly by 61.  Going down the list of games, outside the Gilmer game - the only games where Newton failed to cover the spread were those games where they were favored by 56 or more.  I think to get a better feel for how good Newton really is, you'd need to look at only those games with reasonable spreads.  I chose spreads of 30 or under.  In those games, the average spread is 16.3, and Newton wins those games by an average of 41.2, so they beat the spread by an average of 24.8.  So, theoretically, Newton's rating quite possibly should be about 24.8 points higher than it is.  Currently, Newton sits at 180.46.  This would bring them to 205.26 - which is good enough to be ranked #1 in every classification except 6A, where they would be ranked #2 (per Pigskin).

 

To be fair, this "flaw" is most certainly there for the top teams in every class, so all those top teams who beat the dog out of lesser teams, and still drop in the ratings because covering the spread would require being a terrible sport, should probably be higher too, so if I did this for all teams, the rankings might end up right back where they are - with just higher ratings for all teams.  I just thought this was interesting.

Nice post, thanks Pax

[Eagles97]

25 minutes ago, Pax said:

I follow the ratings on Pigskin, and I agree with them most of the time, but I think there is a flaw in how the rating system works for large spread games.  Newton isn't the only team at all that falls into this category, but I picked Newton to do this with.  Obviously, Newton is really good, so there are actually games where they are favored by ridiculous spreads, and Newton loses ground in the ratings because they aren't jerks who run up the score.  They were favored by 82 in one game.  Come on, now.  Could Newton have beat New Waverly by 82?  Without a doubt, yes.  They could probably beat them by 120 or more, but nobody would respect them if they did that.  So, Newton drops in the rating department because they only beat New Waverly by 61.  Going down the list of games, outside the Gilmer game - the only games where Newton failed to cover the spread were those games where they were favored by 56 or more.  I think to get a better feel for how good Newton really is, you'd need to look at only those games with reasonable spreads.  I chose spreads of 30 or under.  In those games, the average spread is 16.3, and Newton wins those games by an average of 41.2, so they beat the spread by an average of 24.8.  So, theoretically, Newton's rating quite possibly should be about 24.8 points higher than it is.  Currently, Newton sits at 180.46.  This would bring them to 205.26 - which is good enough to be ranked #1 in every classification except 6A, where they would be ranked #2 (per Pigskin).

 

To be fair, this "flaw" is most certainly there for the top teams in every class, so all those top teams who beat the dog out of lesser teams, and still drop in the ratings because covering the spread would require being a terrible sport, should probably be higher too, so if I did this for all teams, the rankings might end up right back where they are - with just higher ratings for all teams.  I just thought this was interesting.

Thanks pax.   Can you do your normal break down for us too

[nopantzlance]

I really wish we could have played this game on thursday.  With the extravagant circus that is the Texas State championship weekend at Jerry World only a week away, I dont really care for the thursday mid day game for the 3 d2 State championship.  Going from playing the semis on friday at 7 to playing at mid day the next thursday for the winner is a day and a half shorter to prepare and rest.  I wish Region 3 and 4 could agree from now on to play this game on Thursday to give the kids more time to adjust to the new schedule.  Im sure its harder for fans to travel on thursday and that revenue is much needed.  OR split the 12 State games locations up.  Maybe let Texanlive.com compete with FSSW and play half the games in Houston or San Antonio or at the Star in Frisco.  Just my 2 cents.

[Pax]

40 minutes ago, nopantzlance said:

I really wish we could have played this game on thursday.  With the extravagant circus that is the Texas State championship weekend at Jerry World only a week away, I dont really care for the thursday mid day game for the 3 d2 State championship.  Going from playing the semis on friday at 7 to playing at mid day the next thursday for the winner is a day and a half shorter to prepare and rest.  I wish Region 3 and 4 could agree from now on to play this game on Thursday to give the kids more time to adjust to the new schedule.  Im sure its harder for fans to travel on thursday and that revenue is much needed.  OR split the 12 State games locations up.  Maybe let Texanlive.com compete with FSSW and play half the games in Houston or San Antonio or at the Star in Frisco.  Just my 2 cents.

I'd prefer moving the semis to Thursday far more than splitting up the championship games.  I think having all the championships in one place was one of the best moves the UIL made.  All that said, I dont have a problem with the short turnaround.  You're in the state championship game, so if you're good enough to make it to that game, you probably wouldnt benefit all that much from an extra 36 hours of preparation, and the team you are playing has the exact same challenge.

[Eagles97]

1 minute ago, Pax said:

I'd prefer moving the semis to Thursday far more than splitting up the championship games.  I think having all the championships in one place was one of the best moves the UIL made.  All that said, I dont have a problem with the short turnaround.  You're in the state championship game, so if you're good enough to make it to that game, you probably wouldnt benefit all that much from an extra 36 hours of preparation, and the team you are playing has the exact same challenge.

The biggest problem here is the travel.  Our kids will get two days to prepare and leave Wednesday to head to Dallas. I know for Gunter it’s definitely not a problem. Basically a hour or so drive.  

[Pax]

2 minutes ago, Eagles97 said:

The biggest problem here is the travel.  Our kids will get two days to prepare and leave Wednesday to head to Dallas. I know for Gunter it’s definitely not a problem. Basically a hour or so drive.  

Yeah, I'm probably a little selfish there!  I go with my dad on the Thursday games (this year, that's the 2A D1, and both 3A games) every year regardless of whether Gunter makes it.  Gonna be a lot tougher road for Gunter to get back than Newton though.  Canadian is going to be tough.

[Eagles97]

4 minutes ago, Pax said:

Yeah, I'm probably a little selfish there!  I go with my dad on the Thursday games (this year, that's the 2A D1, and both 3A games) every year regardless of whether Gunter makes it.  Gonna be a lot tougher road for Gunter to get back than Newton though.  Canadian is going to be tough.

Yes sir but I believe y’all will be there 

[nopantzlance]

5 minutes ago, Pax said:

I'd prefer moving the semis to Thursday far more than splitting up the championship games.  I think having all the championships in one place was one of the best moves the UIL made.  All that said, I dont have a problem with the short turnaround.  You're in the state championship game, so if you're good enough to make it to that game, you probably wouldnt benefit all that much from an extra 36 hours of preparation, and the team you are playing has the exact same challenge.

I dont like playing on thursday at mid day.  I dont like the small locker rooms.  I dont like the 30 minute break between games (no time to warm up).  I dont like the drive for our kids.  I dont like the RUMORED 20 some odd thousand dollars our school is charged to rent/play at AT&T.  I dont like the monopoly FSSW has on the State Championship Circus.  

 

[Eagles97]

3 minutes ago, nopantzlance said:

I dont like playing on thursday at mid day.  I dont like the small locker rooms.  I dont like the 30 minute break between games (no time to warm up).  I dont like the drive for our kids.  I dont like the RUMORED 20 some odd thousand dollars our school is charged to rent/play at AT&T.  I dont like the monopoly FSSW has on the State Championship Circus.  

 

 

[nopantzlance]

Not to mention, last year Newton vs Gunter didn't even air on FSSW, it was on an alternative channel because of a baskteball or hockey( dont remember exactly I just remambered being mad as ell) game on FSSW

[nopantzlance]

And dont get me started about the Franklin vs Waskom game in 2015 that didnt get started til 11 pm.... but hey they got to play in Jerry World!  woohoo!!

[Pax]

1 hour ago, nopantzlance said:

I dont like playing on thursday at mid day.  I dont like the small locker rooms.  I dont like the 30 minute break between games (no time to warm up).  I dont like the drive for our kids.  I dont like the RUMORED 20 some odd thousand dollars our school is charged to rent/play at AT&T.  I dont like the monopoly FSSW has on the State Championship Circus.  

 

Schools are always having to pay to use the venues they play in.  Those venues aren't hosting these games for free!  They have to staff the event with ticket takers, concession stand operators, security, scoreboard operators, P.A. announcers, clean up crews, etc.  They have to power up the electricity guzzling lights.  You are seeing all these nice facilities pop up largely because of the revenue generated from hosting playoff games.  Schools always have to pay to use these venues.

AT&T stadium would be no different, and they do it for a fraction of the cost per capita.  And schools still make money - WAY more so at AT&T.  It's not uncommon for a nice venue to charge $5, 10 or $15,000 for use of the venue for a regular playoff game.  This is split between both teams, but they get to keep and split the gate proceeds.  The schools playing in the game almost always end up making money.  However, I don't think AT&T charges individual schools.  The UIL pays them to host all the games.  NRG in Houston charged $450,000.  AT&T charges $150,000.  In 2015, 150,000 people attended the games in Houston.  In 2016 when they moved it back to AT&T, 250,000 people showed up (at a third of the cost for use of the venue).  So, at AT&T stadium - even if each team were individually charged, $150,000 split between the 24 teams that participate in the state championships, that is $6,250 a pop - which is likely cheaper than what these teams would have to pay if they secured their own venue hosting a single game.  However, the gate revenue they get at AT&T is WAAAAAY more.  

The games are scheduled 4 hours apart at least.  If a game goes long, then the entire schedule is pushed back.  They set the clock to at LEAST 60 minutes after a game counting down to the next one.  I think it might even be 90.  I think they do a superb job of moving things along while allowing teams plenty of warmup time.  I've been to these games for several years, and there is a lot more than 30 minutes between games.  It takes more than 30 minutes just to get the fans of the game that just finished out of the stands before they even start allowing people waiting for the next game down into the lower bowl.   

If FSSW didn't have a "monopoly" on the circus and the games were not all played in the same place, you'd probably only see 2 or 3 games aired on cable television, and it sure wouldn't be the 3A game.  If you wanted that one, you'd have to pay $10 to watch a crappy stream with the production capabilities of a startup Youtube channel.

[Pax]

1 hour ago, nopantzlance said:

And dont get me started about the Franklin vs Waskom game in 2015 that didnt get started til 11 pm.... but hey they got to play in Jerry World!  woohoo!!

The 2015 championship games were at NRG in Houston; not Jerry World.  The bad management is one of the reasons they moved the games back to AT&T where they do a much better job of managing the flow....not to mention they charge $150K instead of $450K and draw 100,000 more people.

[armchair]

17 hours ago, Tiger1995 said:

What on earth are you talking about? Troup came out passing and continued to try to throw the ball till the very end. Didn’t help but they tried. 

you are correct JJ ( for once ;)). My bad. They did throw the ball a lot, and that QB was pretty good.

Serious question, how is their hooping gonna be this year? they are usually really competitive.

[nopantzlance]

1 hour ago, Pax said:

Schools are always having to pay to use the venues they play in.  Those venues aren't hosting these games for free!  They have to staff the event with ticket takers, concession stand operators, security, scoreboard operators, P.A. announcers, clean up crews, etc.  They have to power up the electricity guzzling lights.  You are seeing all these nice facilities pop up largely because of the revenue generated from hosting playoff games.  Schools always have to pay to use these venues.

AT&T stadium would be no different, and they do it for a fraction of the cost per capita.  And schools still make money - WAY more so at AT&T.  It's not uncommon for a nice venue to charge $5, 10 or $15,000 for use of the venue for a regular playoff game.  This is split between both teams, but they get to keep and split the gate proceeds.  The schools playing in the game almost always end up making money.  However, I don't think AT&T charges individual schools.  The UIL pays them to host all the games.  NRG in Houston charged $450,000.  AT&T charges $150,000.  In 2015, 150,000 people attended the games in Houston.  In 2016 when they moved it back to AT&T, 250,000 people showed up (at a third of the cost for use of the venue).  So, at AT&T stadium - even if each team were individually charged, $150,000 split between the 24 teams that participate in the state championships, that is $6,250 a pop - which is likely cheaper than what these teams would have to pay if they secured their own venue hosting a single game.  However, the gate revenue they get at AT&T is WAAAAAY more.  

The games are scheduled 4 hours apart at least.  If a game goes long, then the entire schedule is pushed back.  They set the clock to at LEAST 60 minutes after a game counting down to the next one.  I think it might even be 90.  I think they do a superb job of moving things along while allowing teams plenty of warmup time.  I've been to these games for several years, and there is a lot more than 30 minutes between games.  It takes more than 30 minutes just to get the fans of the game that just finished out of the stands before they even start allowing people waiting for the next game down into the lower bowl.   

If FSSW didn't have a "monopoly" on the circus and the games were not all played in the same place, you'd probably only see 2 or 3 games aired on cable television, and it sure wouldn't be the 3A game.  If you wanted that one, you'd have to pay $10 to watch a crappy stream with the production capabilities of a startup Youtube channel.

I recall talk after the 2014 state game of Newton being left with a very large bill, even after ticket sales.  I would prefer a Saturday game for a State Championship at a halfway point between the two towns playing.  I know Newton and Waskom are about 2 and a half hours apart, both on the LA state line.  That game  in 2014 could have been played at 2pm on a  Saturday at SFA or even Lufkin Highschool.  An hour and 15 minute drive for both fan bases.  Both fan bases could have been home for supper.  I know renting those stadiums still costs 8 to 10 grand but it would easily cover the cost with ticket sales.  Not to mention the money saved by the schools from travel expenses (wednesday night food/ hotel/ breakfast/ lunch/ supper for the players, fuel).  Atleast for teams who travel as far as Newton.   

Oh and yea I have always noticed teams warming up while the previous 2 teams trophy/medal ceremonies.  

     

[LSUTIGERS]

2 hours ago, nopantzlance said:

I dont like playing on thursday at mid day.  I dont like the small locker rooms.  I dont like the 30 minute break between games (no time to warm up).  I dont like the drive for our kids.  I dont like the RUMORED 20 some odd thousand dollars our school is charged to rent/play at AT&T.  I dont like the monopoly FSSW has on the State Championship Circus.  

 

The schools don't pay to play at AT&T during the State Championships.

2 hours ago, nopantzlance said:

And dont get me started about the Franklin vs Waskom game in 2015 that didnt get started til 11 pm.... but hey they got to play in Jerry World!  woohoo!!

Franklin vs Waskom was NRG.

NRG didn't do a good job when they hosted the Championships.

[nopantzlance]

Ok so i was wrong.  Newton made money both times.  Money truely does change ppl...  

[nopantzlance]

20 minutes ago, LSUTIGERS said:

The schools don't pay to play at AT&T during the State Championships.

Franklin vs Waskom was NRG.

NRG didn't do a good job when they hosted the Championships.

AT&T .... NRG....  its all the same to me.  Im an Oilers fan.

[LSUTIGERS]

3 minutes ago, nopantzlance said:

AT&T .... NRG....  its all the same to me.  Im an Oilers fan.

It matters to the kids. The experience and the way they're treated at AT&T verses NRG is night & day difference.

And the schools get more money from AT&T because the attendance is higher.

[Robhollow84]

4 hours ago, nopantzlance said:

And dont get me started about the Franklin vs Waskom game in 2015 that didnt get started til 11 pm.... but hey they got to play in Jerry World!  woohoo!!

Dang, tell us how you really feel lol

[Purpleforever]

Newton, don't care about the score as long as they win.

[WildcatScream]

On 12/8/2018 at 11:09 AM, Owlfred said:

A look at Newton’s game videos tells me that their size, speed and raw talent will, as all of you seem to think, be far too much for EB, or anyone else, for that matter, to overcome.  But EB likely will put up a tougher fight than any other 3A team they’ve played.

The last time they were a four-TD-or-greater ‘dog deep into the playoffs was against Refugio.  EB beat them 43-22.

But this EB team doesn’t have the raw talent of its recent playoff teams.  They weren’t even picked to win district this year, even though they have gone at least three games deep  into the playoffs for the last ten years in a row.  This was supposedly a semi-rebuilding year. But they played hard and continued to improve each game.

But don’t underestimate the toughness and grit of these Bohemian kids.  They’re disciplined, they’re smart, and they Do. Not.  Quit.  Ever.  They’re a totally different type of people than you’re used to playing up in deep East Texas.  

You may win by as much as 40.  But I doubt.  My guess would be along lines of about 34-10. Turf field is going to keep it from being any closer, I expect.  Playing in the mud would make it interesting.

But I guarantee you one thing.  If Newton were going against EB in math, or science, or SAT scores, the Brimmers would beat hell out of them....

 

Sounds great......................better bring your maximum strength MYLANTA anyways

[JACKETLIFE]

4 hours ago, Pax said:

Schools are always having to pay to use the venues they play in.  Those venues aren't hosting these games for free!  They have to staff the event with ticket takers, concession stand operators, security, scoreboard operators, P.A. announcers, clean up crews, etc.  They have to power up the electricity guzzling lights.  You are seeing all these nice facilities pop up largely because of the revenue generated from hosting playoff games.  Schools always have to pay to use these venues.

AT&T stadium would be no different, and they do it for a fraction of the cost per capita.  And schools still make money - WAY more so at AT&T.  It's not uncommon for a nice venue to charge $5, 10 or $15,000 for use of the venue for a regular playoff game.  This is split between both teams, but they get to keep and split the gate proceeds.  The schools playing in the game almost always end up making money.  However, I don't think AT&T charges individual schools.  The UIL pays them to host all the games.  NRG in Houston charged $450,000.  AT&T charges $150,000.  In 2015, 150,000 people attended the games in Houston.  In 2016 when they moved it back to AT&T, 250,000 people showed up (at a third of the cost for use of the venue).  So, at AT&T stadium - even if each team were individually charged, $150,000 split between the 24 teams that participate in the state championships, that is $6,250 a pop - which is likely cheaper than what these teams would have to pay if they secured their own venue hosting a single game.  However, the gate revenue they get at AT&T is WAAAAAY more.  

The games are scheduled 4 hours apart at least.  If a game goes long, then the entire schedule is pushed back.  They set the clock to at LEAST 60 minutes after a game counting down to the next one.  I think it might even be 90.  I think they do a superb job of moving things along while allowing teams plenty of warmup time.  I've been to these games for several years, and there is a lot more than 30 minutes between games.  It takes more than 30 minutes just to get the fans of the game that just finished out of the stands before they even start allowing people waiting for the next game down into the lower bowl.   

If FSSW didn't have a "monopoly" on the circus and the games were not all played in the same place, you'd probably only see 2 or 3 games aired on cable television, and it sure wouldn't be the 3A game.  If you wanted that one, you'd have to pay $10 to watch a crappy stream with the production capabilities of a startup Youtube channel.

Just asking, but where did you get this information that that NRG charged $450,000?