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๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ The official 2020 Election thread


Mr. P

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12 hours ago, KirtFalcon said:

I think it's getting less and less likely that Bite Me is the dimocrat nominee ....

Yeah, it's increasingly obvious that the media has decided on Warren.ย 

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7163567/PIERS-MORGAN-Trumps-going-win-easily-2020-unless-Democrat-ostriches-drag-heads-sand.html

Quote

The polls don't look good forย Donald Trump.

I mean, by any normal yardstick, the President is heading for a defeat in theย 2020 election.

He's lagging behind in many of the crucial states that swung the White House his way in 2016 - like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Indeed, the polls look so worrying that Trump's team fired several internal pollsters when the shock numbers leaked, in aย Kim Jong-unย style 'do not bring the boss bad news' move.

Yet when Trump launched his 2020 campaign on Tuesday night in Orlando, Florida, I didn't sense I was watching a guy who's going to lose.

In fact, I got the complete opposite feeling.

Trump exuded the confident all-conquering swagger of someone who defied all polls and logic last time, and fully intends to do so again.

It was a virtuoso Trump rally performance, carried out with all the passion, energy, chutzpah and showmanship of another septuagenarian, Mick Jagger, strutting around a big stadium.

Like any great entertainer (and I appreciate not everyone finds Trump entertainingโ€ฆ), he belted out all his greatest crowd-pleasing hits from The Wall and 'Fake News' media to the rigged system, special counsel Mueller's 'witch-hunt' and 'bogus' Russia collusion.

There was some recently added material, including repeated attacks on 'Sleepy Joe Biden' and Trump even revealed a brand new recording โ€“ his debut impression of 'Crooked' Hillary Clinton saying during one of their 2016 TV debates, 'If I win, are you going to support me?'

The audience loved it all, roaring their approval throughout.

And of course, liberal-dominated Twitter hated it, roaring its own disapproval throughout as clips hit social media.

The vast chasm between pro-Trumpers and anti-Trumpers is just as wide and divisive as it's been since his shock election win.

But the President's demeanor should strike the fear of God into his opponents, because he looks and sounds in the form of his short political life.

Former Vice President Joe Biden is leading the pack in the poll from Quinnipiac University which was released last Tuesday. Red on the chart depicts Trump

ย 
+5

When I interviewed Trump in London during his UK state visit several weeks ago, I remarked to people afterwards that I had never seen him so relaxed, or indeed presidential.

It seemed as if the lifting of the toxic, draining Russia collusion and Mueller report millstone had not just reinvigorated him, but newly empowered him.

I think the whole bitter experience โ€“ based on what turned out to be a falsehood that he colluded with Russia to fix the 2016 election - made him realize it's pointless trying to persuade those who hate him to like him.

Instead, he's refocused on ensuring all those who like him vote him in again.

Though the truth is Trump's never really stopped campaigning.

He's spent two-and-a-half years bombarding Americans with relentless self-aggrandizing tweets, speeches, rallies and media interviews โ€“ all designed to keep his base pot boiling.

And his strategy has clearly worked.

Everyone seems to forget that Trump won with just 46.1% of the national vote in 2016. His current approval rating is around 45%.

And as the New Yorker reminds us today, the day before the 2016 election, just 37.5% of American voters โ€“ according to Real Clear Politics poll average - had a 'favorable' opinion of Trump.

So, either the polls were wrong or a lot of people voted for Trump despite not liking him.

The latest R.C.P. poll average shows Trump's favorability opinion at 43.8% - over six percentage points higher than when he won last time.

The reason for this is almost certainly due to the indisputably excellent performance of the U.S. economy.

GDP numbers are strong, unemployment has fallen to an historic low of just 3.5%, and stock markets have surged to record highs.

A Fox News poll released Sunday shows Trump trailing every leading Democratic contender, including Pete Buttigieg. Biden earned 49 per cent support from registered voters compared to Trump's 39 per cent

ย 
+5

A Fox News poll released Sunday shows Trump trailing every leading Democratic contender, including Pete Buttigieg. Biden earned 49 per cent support from registered voters compared to Trump's 39 per cent

The majority of Americans may still have a low opinion of Trump personally, but when it comes to the economy a big majority says they feel 'optimistic'.

The great mantra of electability in US politics remains 'It's the economy, stupid' and on that key issue, Trump's delivering in large spades.

There's another financial reason why Trump should feel emboldened.

His 2020 'Keep America Great' campaign has already raised nearly $100 million including $24 million within one day of his official re-launch this week.

Winning U.S. presidential races takes deep pockets, and Trump has donations pouring in from wealthy Republicans who've been delighted by his first term of office, not least because of the extensive tax cuts that have made them loads of cash.

Trump took to Twitter on Wednesday to complain about his position in the polls. He claimed he'd be 'winning by 20 points,' if it were for Democrats and the media
ย 
Importantly, and in contrast to 2016, Trump has the almost universal support of his party this time. The GOP's come to the conclusion that his bark is worse than his bite, and Trump's a winner. So they hold their nose when he says outrageous stuff because the cold hard reality of what he's actually doing speaks louder than his inflammatory rhetoric.

Trump, if you ignore the tweets and trash-talk, is delivering on many of his promises and performing like a solid Republican president.

He's got two conservatives onto the Supreme Court, he's crushed ISIS in Syria and Iraq, he's forced peace rather than expensive war, he's got the economy motoring, and his tough positions on illegal immigration at the southern border and the serious danger posed by Iran have both been vindicated โ€“ at least to the GOP - by recent events.

As a result, his base is happy.

I've spent a lot of time filming crime documentaries in places like Texas, Florida and Alabama in the past year, and the Trump Train isn't just still travelling in his heartland โ€“ it's steaming.

And the Democrats seem all over the place, unsure whether to go for the age and experience of Joe Biden or the youth and inexperience of a Mayor Pete, and even more unsure whether to pivot to the center or the left.

They've stuck their heads like ostriches into the sand, and appear terrified to stick them out again lest the big bad beast of Trump shoots them down again.

So as things stand โ€“ and notwithstanding unexpected events that can derail any presidency - I am going to ignore the polls and predict Trump will win comfortably in 2020.

To all those who scoff at this prediction, I simply remind you that you all scoffed last time when I repeatedly said Trump would win despite widespread poll evidence to the contrary.

Another person who did the same was filmmaker Michael Moore who loathes Trump with a visceral passion but is smart enough to see the wood for the trees.

He sat down to witness the re-launch rally and tweeted yesterday morning: 'I watched the whole thing last night. I know no one wants to waste that kind of time even looking at him, but not wanting to see the enormity of the fight ahead doesn't make it go away. He hasn't lost one inch of his fired-up base. Are u ready?'

I don't think most Democrats understand the enormity of the fight, let alone be 'ready' for what's coming in 2020.

They're brimming with the same entitled, arrogant 'we'll beat Trump because he's a moron' nonsense that Hillary spewed throughout the last campaign to catastrophic self-harm.

They don't really have their own plan to make โ€“ or keep! - America great, other than to demonize the President all over again, aided and abetted by a largely liberal media that's lost all sense of impartiality over Trump and just rants hysterically about him 24/7 because a) it makes them feel good and b) it makes them big money.

So it all feels like dรฉjร  vu to me.

Trump's running the same playbook with the same messaging to the same enthralled base, and his opponents, and the Trump-bashing media, are playing right into his hands all over again.

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The vast majority of the polls are rigged to favor dimocrats due to how the questions are worded and due to over sampling the dimocratsย  ... the Real Clear Politics average that is mainly cited as the "gold standard" is loaded with these bogus polls that shouldn't be included. The result is their RPC average is significantly skewed to the left by several percentage pointsย  .... Bottom line is President Trump is a lot more popular than these bogus polls will ever show ....

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7 minutes ago, KirtFalcon said:

The vast majority of the polls are rigged to favor dimocrats due to how the questions are worded and due to over sampling the dimocratsย  ... the Real Clear Politics average that is mainly cited as the "gold standard" is loaded with these bogus polls that shouldn't be included. The result is their RPC average is significantly skewed to the left by several percentage pointsย  .... Bottom line is President Trump is a lot more popular than these bogus polls will ever show ....

I have to wonder how many people lie on those polls. If for no other reason to mess with the pollsters.

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10 hours ago, REX said:

He may be a limey libtard buffoon from Britain but he makes a damning case in his Daily Mail op-ed column:

How strange to find a liberal, in any form of journalism, whoโ€™ll still tell the truth. ย This guyโ€™s a dinosaur.

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That headline sums it up pretty well, I think. We'll see if they stay non-supportive, if he does well in polling and has a chance to win.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/20/roy-moore-senate-republicans-defeat-1374226

congress

โ€˜This place has enough creepy old menโ€™: GOP vows to crush Roy Moore

Republicans fear the conservative firebrand accused of sexual misconduct will cost them a crucial Senate seat.

Updated

Republicans are promising to do everything they can to obliterate Roy Moore in the Alabama Senate primary.

A push is underway to get President Donald Trump involved in derailing Moore. Republicans are actively moving to recruit Jeff Sessions to run for his old seat. And GOP leaders are warning the party will jeopardize perhaps its only chance at picking up a Senate seat next year if they let Democrat Doug Jones get his favored match-up.

"There will be a lot of efforts made to ensure that we have a nominee other than him and one who can win in November,โ€ said Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.). โ€œHeโ€™s already proven he canโ€™t.โ€

Added Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, โ€œWeโ€™ll be opposing Roy Moore vigorously."

Moore famously lost to Jones in 2017 after the Alabama Republican was besieged by sexual misconduct allegations from his past and he lost the support of key GOP officials. His reemergence as a candidate Thursday evoked palpable disgust among Republican senators as it dawned on them they will have to confront him once again before he potentially costs them another seat.

โ€œGive me a break. This place has enough creepy old men,โ€ said Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.), referring to Washington, when asked about Moore's candidacy.

โ€œThe people of Alabama are smarter than that,โ€ said Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), who as leader of the partyโ€™s campaign arm at the time vowed to try and expel Moore from the Senate if he won. โ€œThey certainly didnโ€™t choose him last time, why would they choose him this time?โ€

A Moore candidacy could harm Republicansโ€™ national brand if he catches fire again, and incumbents running in purple states โ€” like Gardner and McSally โ€” are loath to find themselves tied to him. And facing a tougher 2020 map with several battleground seats in play, Republicans are eager to beat Jones and cushion their majority.

If Republicans do defeat Jones, that would require Democrats to pick up a minimum of four seats elsewhere to take the Senate. Alabama should be an easy pickup for Republicans, given the stateโ€™s bright red hue and Trumpโ€™s popularity, which is why Mooreโ€™s new run is causing such alarm in the GOP.

โ€œYou think itโ€™s been divisive before? It gets really divisive on the other side,โ€ Jones said of Mooreโ€™s Senate bid. Moore defeated former Sen. Luther Strange (R-Ala.) in 2017 despite significant support from the party establishment.

Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) has talked to Sessions about running for his old seat, which he left to become attorney general for Trump. Sessions did not indicate to him whether he will run, but Republicans said privately that the four-term senator could face his own problems as a candidate, given Trumpโ€™s antipathy for Sessionsโ€™ service in his administration.

Sessions suggested last year in an interview with POLITICO that he was done with politics, raising doubts that he would try and take on Moore.

โ€œIf Sessions runs, I think he would dominate the field. Now, I donโ€™t know if heโ€™ll run. He hasnโ€™t said he wouldnโ€™t run,โ€ said Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.). โ€œI would oppose Roy Moore. โ€ฆ I will not be by myself, I hope. I think Alabama can do better than that.โ€

Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Ala.) and former Auburn Coach Tommy Tuberville are already in the race, and Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Ala.) is considering it. But that crowded field could easily play to Mooreโ€™s advantage given his past popularity with the stateโ€™s most conservative voters. What's more, Moore also could conceivably win a general election with Trump atop the ticket, a nightmare for the Senate GOP that would then have to deal with a bomb-thrower in the caucus.

The president and his son, Donald Trump Jr., have already expressed their dissatisfaction with Mooreโ€™s run. Trump tweeted last month that Moore โ€œcannot win,โ€ and Trump Jr. tweeted Thursday that โ€œRoy Moore is going against my father and heโ€™s doing a disservice to all conservatives across the country in the process.โ€

โ€œThe people of Alabama rejected Roy Moore just a few months ago. And I donโ€™t see that anything has changed,โ€ said Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Yet Moore has been unbowed by that criticism, seeking to run once against as an outsider against the establishment. Republicans largely pulled their support from his bid after the sexual misconduct allegations were reported by the Washington Post, leaving Moore adrift in a race that should have been an easy GOP hold.

On Thursday, Moore called out Young for opposing his candidacy and slammed both the NRSC and the Senate Leadership Fund, an outside group that spent heavily against Moore in 2017. He accused the NRSC of running a โ€œsmear campaignโ€ and bashed Shelby for doubting his viability.

โ€œWhy such a hatred and opposition to somebody running? Why does mere mention of my name cause people just to get up in arms in Washington, D.C.?" Moore said at a news conference Thursday.

That combative stance is leading some Republicans to suggest Trump may have to do more, because otherwise โ€œwe probably lose the seat,โ€ said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).

โ€œIโ€™m concerned,โ€ Cornyn said. โ€œIf President Trump came out forcefully against him โ€ฆ that would certainly make it more likely that somebody else will get nominated.โ€

Yet Republicans are also wary of doing anything that could repeat the debacle of 2017, when support from Senate Republicans seemed to weigh on Strange and give Moore an opening in the primary. The Senate Leadership Fund is not yet vowing to spend in the race, waiting to see if his candidacy will fall apart on its own, and senators said they need to have a lighter touch this time around to stop Moore from succeed.

โ€œWe will do everything we can to stop him. But we need to be careful about that,โ€ said one Republican senator. โ€œWe have to be more elegant.โ€

James Arkin contributed to this story.

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While I don't think Moore did based on the woman's testimony that worked at the cafe that he ate at. ย I think he should just go away. ย The perception is out there that he did, and those rumors will never go away. ย 

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So she's essentially saying that Congress should be immune from criticism.

She needs to read some Orwell.

Unfortunately, I think too many on the left think that "1984" is an instruction manual and contains good ideas, instead of being a cautionary tale.

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  • Mr. P changed the title to ๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ The official 2020 Election thread

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