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8-3A Playoff Picture


RedBird1

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3 hours ago, Bclove05 said:

Had to add a couple things. 

9FE6149A-F2B9-48D5-AFF4-11E95F426969.jpeg

But in 7-3A.........

 

If Hooks beats Jefferson beats Hughes Springs beats Atlanta beats Mt.Vernon beats Oklahoma/3.17338888 and the moon and stars align at 23 degrees N to NW, and Oprah marries Tom Cruise, then there will be a coin flip. 

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2 minutes ago, Dawg665 said:

Who are the key matchups to watch for this week? 

If Tatum somehow beats Gladewater that really makes everything interesting. It looks like the winner of the Winnsboro and Mineola matchup gets in. WO is still the only team eliminated from the playoffs. 

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3 minutes ago, Dawg665 said:

Who are the key matchups to watch for this week? 

Winny and Minny are de facto win and win i believe. I think there are some scenarios regarding margin of victory that Winny could get 3rd or 4th with a win. Also Tatum and GW game has some implications as well

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I think this is correct ... I do these a lot and I swear it either is getting more complicated every year or getting closer to 70 means I'm losing brain cells every cycle.

 

Basics:

Four WILL get you in … Three CAN get you in depending on points or head-to-head

Who is in?

GLADEWATER – IN even if they lose to Tatum

SABINE – IN even if they lose to White Oak

 

ALL OF THE SCENARIOS BELOW ARE DEPENDENT UPON THE DISTRICT NOT HAVING A MAX POINT CLAUSE IN THEIR MINUTES … IF THEY DO, THINGS CHANGE QUICKLY

 

If Mineola wins and Tatum wins:

Mineola finishes with four wins and is IN

> Seed? If Sabine wins (which is a virtual given), then Minny would enter #2 due to head-to-head win over GW … If Sabine loses also, there would be a three-way tie; in that case, GW #1 (+21), Sabine #2 (+1), and Minny #3 (-22)

Tatum finishes 3-3 tied with WR and would be IN because of head-to-head win vs WR and WR would stay home

Winny at 2-4 is OUT

 

If Mineola wins and Tatum loses:

Mineola finishes with four wins and is IN (See “> Seed” comment above)

West Rusk finishes with three wins and is IN as #4 seed

Tatum and Winny are OUT at 2-4

 

If Mineola loses and Tatum wins:

Mineola, Tatum, Winnsboro, and WR all finish at 3-3 and enters the battle of points

At that point, Tatum would be sitting at a -51 (-21/-34/+5) and really no chance to make up that much ground with the Minny/Winny matchup

West Rusk would be left sitting at a +5 (+5/-5/+4) and would require Winny to top Minny by at least 24 to enter the playoffs due to big Winny and Minny wins over Tatum. Anything less would still place Mineola with more positive points than WR's +5

Right now, with Mineola sitting at +29 (-5/+34) and Winnsboro sitting at +17 (+21/-4):

> a Winnsboro win of +1 to +11 would put Winny in the #4 seed and Minny in the #3 spot - Tatum and WR out

> a Winnsboro win of +12 to +23 would put Winny in the #3 seed and Minny in at #4 - Tatum and WR out

> a Winnsboro win of +24 or more would put Winny in at #3 and WR in at #4 - Tatum and Minny out

 

If Mineola loses and Tatum loses:

Tatum finishes at 2-4 and is OUT

Mineola, Winnsboro, and WR all finish 3-3 and enters the battle of points

In this case with Tatum out of the mix, WR would be sitting at a +9 (+5 vs Minny and +4 vs Winny).

> With both Minny and Winny sitting at a negative differential, any Winny win would eliminate Mineola from entering the playoffs

> A Winny win of 1-13 points would put Winnsboro in at #4 and WR at #3

> A Winny win of 14 or more puts Winnsboro is at #3 and WR in at #4

Interestingly, Dist 7 is about, if not more, complicated ... even with only a week to go ... trying to determine first round playoff matchups border on infinity.

Clear as mud.

 

mud.jpg

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7 minutes ago, DOB said:

I think this is correct ... I do these a lot and I swear it either is getting more complicated every year or getting closer to 70 means I'm losing brain cells every cycle.

 

Basics:

Four WILL get you in … Three CAN get you in depending on points or head-to-head

Who is in?

GLADEWATER – IN even if they lose to Tatum

SABINE – IN even if they lose to White Oak

 

ALL OF THE SCENARIOS BELOW ARE DEPENDENT UPON THE DISTRICT NOT HAVING A MAX POINT CLAUSE IN THEIR MINUTES … IF THEY DO, THINGS CHANGE QUICKLY

 

If Mineola wins and Tatum wins:

Mineola finishes with four wins and is IN

> Seed? If Sabine wins (which is a virtual given), then Minny would enter #2 due to head-to-head win over GW … If Sabine loses also, there would be a three-way tie; in that case, GW #1 (+21), Sabine #2 (+1), and Minny #3 (-22)

Tatum finishes 3-3 tied with WR and would be IN because of head-to-head win vs WR and WR would stay home

Winny at 2-4 is OUT

 

If Mineola wins and Tatum loses:

Mineola finishes with four wins and is IN (See “> Seed” comment above)

West Rusk finishes with three wins and is IN as #4 seed

Tatum and Winny are OUT at 2-4

 

If Mineola loses and Tatum wins:

Mineola, Tatum, Winnsboro, and WR all finish at 3-3 and enters the battle of points

At that point, Tatum would be sitting at a -51 (-21/-34/+5) and really no chance to make up that much ground with the Minny/Winny matchup

West Rusk would be left sitting at a +5 (+5/-5/+4) and would require Winny to top Minny by at least 24 to enter the playoffs due to big Winny and Minny wins over Tatum. Anything less would still place Mineola with more positive points than WR's +5

Right now, with Mineola sitting at +29 (-5/+34) and Winnsboro sitting at +17 (+21/-4):

> a Winnsboro win of +1 to +11 would put Winny in the #4 seed and Minny in the #3 spot - Tatum and WR out

> a Winnsboro win of +12 to +23 would put Winny in the #3 seed and Minny in at #4 - Tatum and WR out

> a Winnsboro win of +24 or more would put Winny in at #3 and WR in at #4 - Tatum and Minny out

 

If Mineola loses and Tatum loses:

Tatum finishes at 2-4 and is OUT

Mineola, Winnsboro, and WR all finish 3-3 and enters the battle of points

In this case with Tatum out of the mix, WR would be sitting at a +9 (+5 vs Minny and +4 vs Winny).

> With both Minny and Winny sitting at a negative differential, any Winny win would eliminate Mineola from entering the playoffs

> A Winny win of 1-13 points would put Winnsboro in at #4 and WR at #3

> A Winny win of 14 or more puts Winnsboro is at #3 and WR in at #4

Interestingly, Dist 7 is about, if not more, complicated ... even with only a week to go ... trying to determine first round playoff matchups border on infinity.

Clear as mud.

 

mud.jpg

I believe the point cap is 17. I know there is one but not sure if it's 15 or 17.

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9 minutes ago, DOB said:

I think this is correct ... I do these a lot and I swear it either is getting more complicated every year or getting closer to 70 means I'm losing brain cells every cycle.

 

Basics:

Four WILL get you in … Three CAN get you in depending on points or head-to-head

Who is in?

GLADEWATER – IN even if they lose to Tatum

SABINE – IN even if they lose to White Oak

 

ALL OF THE SCENARIOS BELOW ARE DEPENDENT UPON THE DISTRICT NOT HAVING A MAX POINT CLAUSE IN THEIR MINUTES … IF THEY DO, THINGS CHANGE QUICKLY

 

If Mineola wins and Tatum wins:

Mineola finishes with four wins and is IN

> Seed? If Sabine wins (which is a virtual given), then Minny would enter #2 due to head-to-head win over GW … If Sabine loses also, there would be a three-way tie; in that case, GW #1 (+21), Sabine #2 (+1), and Minny #3 (-22)

Tatum finishes 3-3 tied with WR and would be IN because of head-to-head win vs WR and WR would stay home

Winny at 2-4 is OUT

 

If Mineola wins and Tatum loses:

Mineola finishes with four wins and is IN (See “> Seed” comment above)

West Rusk finishes with three wins and is IN as #4 seed

Tatum and Winny are OUT at 2-4

 

If Mineola loses and Tatum wins:

Mineola, Tatum, Winnsboro, and WR all finish at 3-3 and enters the battle of points

At that point, Tatum would be sitting at a -51 (-21/-34/+5) and really no chance to make up that much ground with the Minny/Winny matchup

West Rusk would be left sitting at a +5 (+5/-5/+4) and would require Winny to top Minny by at least 24 to enter the playoffs due to big Winny and Minny wins over Tatum. Anything less would still place Mineola with more positive points than WR's +5

Right now, with Mineola sitting at +29 (-5/+34) and Winnsboro sitting at +17 (+21/-4):

> a Winnsboro win of +1 to +11 would put Winny in the #4 seed and Minny in the #3 spot - Tatum and WR out

> a Winnsboro win of +12 to +23 would put Winny in the #3 seed and Minny in at #4 - Tatum and WR out

> a Winnsboro win of +24 or more would put Winny in at #3 and WR in at #4 - Tatum and Minny out

 

If Mineola loses and Tatum loses:

Tatum finishes at 2-4 and is OUT

Mineola, Winnsboro, and WR all finish 3-3 and enters the battle of points

In this case with Tatum out of the mix, WR would be sitting at a +9 (+5 vs Minny and +4 vs Winny).

> With both Minny and Winny sitting at a negative differential, any Winny win would eliminate Mineola from entering the playoffs

> A Winny win of 1-13 points would put Winnsboro in at #4 and WR at #3

> A Winny win of 14 or more puts Winnsboro is at #3 and WR in at #4

Interestingly, Dist 7 is about, if not more, complicated ... even with only a week to go ... trying to determine first round playoff matchups border on infinity.

Clear as mud.

 

mud.jpg

Is there not a point cap in the district?

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4 minutes ago, H3llR4z0r said:

Is there not a point cap in the district?

You would think ... but I have been in meetings where superintendents also get a vote ... and there are fewer and fewer sups each year who never strapped on a helmet and a pair of shoulder pads ... and know absolutely zero about such matters and their impact on things.

 

 

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3 hours ago, DawgNation2015 said:

Let’s redo all this with the 17 point cap.  Should be quick DOB right?  😂

Quick? No such thing ... believe it got more complicated with the cap ... eyes crossed at this point, but here goes ... think it's right.

Basics:

Four WILL get you in … Three CAN get you in depending on points or head-to-head

Who is in?

GLADEWATER – IN

SABINE – IN

Seeds to be decided … if both win GW is #1 and Sabine #2 based on head-to-head

Otherwise, see * below

AS PER RELAYED, DISTRICT HAS 17 POINT CAP

If Mineola wins and Tatum wins:

Mineola finishes with four wins and is IN

* > Seed? If Sabine wins (which is a virtual given), then Minny would enter #2 due to head-to-head win over GW #3 … If Sabine loses also, there would be a three-way tie; in that case, GW #1 (+14), Sabine #2 (0), and Minny #3 (-14)

Tatum finishes 3-3 tied with WR and would be IN because of head-to-head win vs WR and

WR would stay home

Winny at 2-4 is OUT

If Mineola wins and Tatum loses:

Mineola finishes with four wins and is IN as #3 seed

West Rusk finishes with three wins and is IN as #4 seed

Tatum and Winny are OUT at 2-4

If Mineola loses and Tatum wins:

Mineola, Tatum, Winnsboro, and WR all four finish at 3-3 and enters the battle of points

At that point, Tatum would be sitting at a -29 (-17/-17/+5) and really no chance to make up that ground limited by the 17 point cap.

West Rusk would be left sitting at a +5 (+5/-5/+4) and would require Winny to top Minny by at least +7 to enter the playoffs which would end WR & M in a tie at +5, with WR going due to head-to-head. Anything less would still place Mineola with more positive points than WR's +5

Right now, with Mineola sitting at +12 (-5/+17) and Winnsboro sitting at +13 (+17/-4):

> a Winnsboro win of +1 to +6 would put Winny in the #3 seed (at +14 to +20) and Minny in the #4 spot (with at worst a +6 rating) , with WR ending at a +5 and staying home.

> a Winnsboro win of +7 or more puts Winny in the #3 seed and WR in at #4 (at 7 would end up with WR and Minny both being at +5 with WR IN and Minny out due to head-to-head)

If Mineola loses and Tatum loses:

Tatum finishes at 2-4 and is OUT

Mineola, Winnsboro, and WR all finish 3-3 and enters the battle of points

In this case with Tatum out of the mix, WR would be sitting at a +9 (+5 vs Minny and +4 vs Winny).

> With Minny and Winny both sitting at a negative differentials, any Winny win would eliminate Mineola from entering the playoffs

> A Winny win of 1-13 points would put Winnsboro in at #4 and WR at #3

> A Winny win of 14-17 points puts Winnsboro is at #3 and WR in at #4

Not satisfied ... see chart below ... if you have a free hour or so, be my guest.

 

chart7.jpg

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2 hours ago, DOB said:

Quick? No such thing ... believe it got more complicated with the cap ... eyes crossed at this point, but here goes ... think it's right.

Basics:

Four WILL get you in … Three CAN get you in depending on points or head-to-head

Who is in?

GLADEWATER – IN

SABINE – IN

Seeds to be decided … if both win GW is #1 and Sabine #2 based on head-to-head

Otherwise, see * below

AS PER RELAYED, DISTRICT HAS 17 POINT CAP

If Mineola wins and Tatum wins:

Mineola finishes with four wins and is IN

* > Seed? If Sabine wins (which is a virtual given), then Minny would enter #2 due to head-to-head win over GW #3 … If Sabine loses also, there would be a three-way tie; in that case, GW #1 (+14), Sabine #2 (0), and Minny #3 (-14)

Tatum finishes 3-3 tied with WR and would be IN because of head-to-head win vs WR and

WR would stay home

Winny at 2-4 is OUT

If Mineola wins and Tatum loses:

Mineola finishes with four wins and is IN as #3 seed

West Rusk finishes with three wins and is IN as #4 seed

Tatum and Winny are OUT at 2-4

If Mineola loses and Tatum wins:

Mineola, Tatum, Winnsboro, and WR all four finish at 3-3 and enters the battle of points

At that point, Tatum would be sitting at a -29 (-17/-17/+5) and really no chance to make up that ground limited by the 17 point cap.

West Rusk would be left sitting at a +5 (+5/-5/+4) and would require Winny to top Minny by at least +7 to enter the playoffs which would end WR & M in a tie at +5, with WR going due to head-to-head. Anything less would still place Mineola with more positive points than WR's +5

Right now, with Mineola sitting at +12 (-5/+17) and Winnsboro sitting at +13 (+17/-4):

> a Winnsboro win of +1 to +6 would put Winny in the #3 seed (at +14 to +20) and Minny in the #4 spot (with at worst a +6 rating) , with WR ending at a +5 and staying home.

> a Winnsboro win of +7 or more puts Winny in the #3 seed and WR in at #4 (at 7 would end up with WR and Minny both being at +5 with WR IN and Minny out due to head-to-head)

If Mineola loses and Tatum loses:

Tatum finishes at 2-4 and is OUT

Mineola, Winnsboro, and WR all finish 3-3 and enters the battle of points

In this case with Tatum out of the mix, WR would be sitting at a +9 (+5 vs Minny and +4 vs Winny).

> With Minny and Winny both sitting at a negative differentials, any Winny win would eliminate Mineola from entering the playoffs

> A Winny win of 1-13 points would put Winnsboro in at #4 and WR at #3

> A Winny win of 14-17 points puts Winnsboro is at #3 and WR in at #4

Not satisfied ... see chart below ... if you have a free hour or so, be my guest.

 

chart7.jpg

If WR,Winny,and Minny all finish at 3-3 and WR beat both, wouldn’t WR be the 3 seed and the winner of the Winny/Minny game be the 4th?

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