MavGrad's Week 11 Preview (2019)

[Coach Rab]

This is an exciting week of football.  We have a couple of decent games leading up to the big LSU/Bama game and a few more in the evening to cap off the day of ranked vs non-ranked.  Dominoes will start to fall into place in the next few weeks...  In honor of the 1st CFB Rankings this week, I will list my top 10.

1.  LSU - LSU has been dominant for the most part against superior competition compared to the rest of the undefeated teams.  
2. Alabama- If their schedule was stronger, I would have no issue having them at #1.  They haven't just won game this year, they have blown everyone out.
3. Ohio St- I am sure this rank will change in the coming weeks.  I just don't trust OSU, never have... but with how well they are playing and with consistency they have to be #3
4. Clemson- It is easy to overlook this team this year.  They haven't been overly impressive and even the Lord knows that their conference schedule won't do them any favors... but they clearly have top 5 talent and are still boasting an undefeated record.
5. Penn St-  give me 8-0 Penn St with 2 wins over top 25 teams and another looming.  This will keep them solidly above my obvious #6 team.
6. Georgia-  With a big win over Florida after an inconsistent start, landed them firmly at a shot at the playoffs assuming they win out and can win the SEC.
7. Oklahoma-  I am basing my top 10 on as many factors as I think plays into the committee's rankings... and with that, I believe that OU is better than the 3 that will fall behind them.  Even after that bad loss to K State last week...  which may not end up being that bad if K State finds a way to dominate Baylor.
8. Florida- Sure this team has 2 losses.  But they didn't look terrible in either one of them.
9. Utah- I have the Utes slightly above the Ducks because of their remaining schedule.  Utah should waltz into the PAC12 Conference Championship with their 1 blemish to a slightly underrated USC team.
10. Oregon- Another PAC12 team with a "good loss" to Auburn.  They are slightly under Utah due to the fact their their only top 25 win was against a #25 Washington team.

#5 Penn State at #13 Minnesota  11:00 AM  ABC

Penn State has been one of the most consistent and solid teams this season.  I don't know a lot about Minnesota, meaning that they have no real game changers on their team.  I will take Penn State by 10.

#11 Baylor at TCU  11:00  FS1

This one is probably one of the harder games to pick.  Baylor is ranked as high as they are because of their record.  However, we all know that TCU has the capability to beat any team in the B12 this year.  I am going with Baylor, but I am uncertain about this pick... Bears by 2.

Western Kentucky at Arkansas  11:00  SEC Network

This is going to sound crazy, but I am going with W Kentucky in this one.  Arkansas has lost 6 in a row.  Their best win is again Colorado St (who is 4-5 by the way).  I think they have lost the will to win despite being more talented than WKU.  Hilltoppers by 6.

Texas Tech at West Virginia  11:00  ESPN2

Another team that seems to be slowly losing desire to win is Texas Tech.  I at least see some spark from WVU at times.  I will take West Virginia by 8.

#1 LSU at #2 Alabama  2:30  CBS

Oh my!   Another high ranked Bama/LSU game...  There is a whole other thread for this game but for what it is worth, we should see a lot of points scored in this one.  Neither defense has shown that they are dominant like we have seen in the past and we know both offenses can score some points.  Joe Burrow is on a historic pace for efficiency as a college QB playing a P5 schedule.  If he can go this game minimizing mistakes and not turning the ball over, this one should end Bama's 8 game winning streak vs LSU.  Tigahs by 1.

#20 Kansas St at Texas  2:30 ESPN

This is a chance for Texas to capitalize on OU's mistake.  We all know that after a big win like K State just had, its hard to sustain that same energy the following week.  I expect Sam to maximize his time with the ball and put some points up.  The real question mark in this whole thing is the Longhorn defense.  Horns by 4.

#18 Iowa at #16 Wisconsin  3:00  FOX

Wisconsin is the overall better team to me.  I will take the Badgers by 7.

[Mr. P]

27 minutes ago, MavGrad99 said:

Iowa State at #9 Oklahoma  7:00  FOX

Gimme the Cyclones by 10, unless Riley wakes the #### up and actually runs the ball (with our RBs, for a change)...   in which case OU wins by 20. 

[Lobo97]

I have to disagree on one sentiment you shared regarding Alabama. They have not 'blown everyone out'. Anyone who watched the Tennessee game knows it was one of those games where the final score was not indicative of the game itself. If Tennessee's QB doesn't fumble, it's a 6 point game midway through the 4th.

 

That said, I don't understand how people continue to put Clemson so low, yet ignore the very reason for doing so when it comes to Alabama. No one can convince me that Bama's schedule has been any more difficult than Clemson's. And the one common opponent they've played, A&M, I thought Clemson handled with more ease...again, final score not indicative of how the game played out. 

[Coach Rab]

21 minutes ago, Lobo97 said:

I have to disagree on one sentiment you shared regarding Alabama. They have not 'blown everyone out'. Anyone who watched the Tennessee game knows it was one of those games where the final score was not indicative of the game itself. If Tennessee's QB doesn't fumble, it's a 6 point game midway through the 4th.

 

That said, I don't understand how people continue to put Clemson so low, yet ignore the very reason for doing so when it comes to Alabama. No one can convince me that Bama's schedule has been any more difficult than Clemson's. And the one common opponent they've played, A&M, I thought Clemson handled with more ease...again, final score not indicative of how the game played out. 

to me, the #s don't matter as long as it is less than 5

[Sportsfanatic1]

1 hour ago, Lobo97 said:

I have to disagree on one sentiment you shared regarding Alabama. They have not 'blown everyone out'. Anyone who watched the Tennessee game knows it was one of those games where the final score was not indicative of the game itself. If Tennessee's QB doesn't fumble, it's a 6 point game midway through the 4th.

 

That said, I don't understand how people continue to put Clemson so low, yet ignore the very reason for doing so when it comes to Alabama. No one can convince me that Bama's schedule has been any more difficult than Clemson's. And the one common opponent they've played, A&M, I thought Clemson handled with more ease...again, final score not indicative of how the game played out. 

And one had them at home while the other had them at CS which has become probably one of the top 5 toughest places to play.

Kinda laughing at the hate is real. Isn't Bama like a top 3 offense in the FBS? Correct me if I'm wrong please?

[WETSU]

2 hours ago, Lobo97 said:

I have to disagree on one sentiment you shared regarding Alabama. They have not 'blown everyone out'. Anyone who watched the Tennessee game knows it was one of those games where the final score was not indicative of the game itself. If Tennessee's QB doesn't fumble, it's a 6 point game midway through the 4th.

 

That said, I don't understand how people continue to put Clemson so low, yet ignore the very reason for doing so when it comes to Alabama. No one can convince me that Bama's schedule has been any more difficult than Clemson's. And the one common opponent they've played, A&M, I thought Clemson handled with more ease...again, final score not indicative of how the game played out. 

Clemson has not looked like a top 5 team hardly at all this season. They have played several opponents of lesser talent closer than they should have. Bama hasn’t played a top 10 caliber team either, but they have “looked” better to me than Clemson has. As an A&M fan, I’d much rather face Clemson again than Bama. 

[WETSU]

1 hour ago, Sportsfanatic1 said:

And one had them at home while the other had them at CS which has become probably one of the top 5 toughest places to play.

Kinda laughing at the hate is real. Isn't Bama like a top 3 offense in the FBS? Correct me if I'm wrong please?

When Tua is healthy, Bama is a top 3 offense easily. I’d say a top 25 defense as well. Clemson and Lawrence are both just not near as good as they were last season. I still think Clemson is a top 5-6 team, but Bama is better this season from what I have seen and what almost every stat will show. 

[JustAFan11]

I’m taking LSU by 2 touchdowns. 
 

This game is the reason Brady was brought to LSU. This Bama defense isn’t a great defensive unit and I think the LSU receivers will have a huge day. I don’t think Tua will finish the game but I believe both teams with make the playoffs. 

[Lobo97]

2 hours ago, Sportsfanatic1 said:

And one had them at home while the other had them at CS which has become probably one of the top 5 toughest places to play.

Kinda laughing at the hate is real. Isn't Bama like a top 3 offense in the FBS? Correct me if I'm wrong please?

What hate are you referring to? Did I say Alabama isn't one of the top teams? No. All I said, is that the very reason Clemson continues to be overlooked in the poll, the same reasoning should be given to Bama. Period. Please tell me where the inaccuracy lies within that statement.

 

 

[Lobo97]

1 hour ago, WETSU said:

When Tua is healthy, Bama is a top 3 offense easily. I’d say a top 25 defense as well. Clemson and Lawrence are both just not near as good as they were last season. I still think Clemson is a top 5-6 team, but Bama is better this season from what I have seen and what almost every stat will show. 

Well let's take a look....

 

First, let's point out 1 thing....both teams have played weak schedules. That isn't disputable. Now, let's look at the stats...

 

Clemson has won 7 games by 30+ points.  Bama has won 4 games by 30+.

Rankings (Offense):

Yards per game:

Clemson - 3

Bama - 9

Points Per Game:

Clemson - 6

Bama - 2

 

Rankings (Defense): 

Yards per game:

Clemson - 4

Bama - 16

Points Per game:

Clemson - 6

Bama - 9

 

So I'm curious WETSU, what 'stats' exactly did you base your assessment on?

You also said, "They have played several opponents of lesser value closer than they should have.". Really? Name them. UNC is 1, but 1 doesn't represent 'several'. 

[WETSU]

58 minutes ago, Lobo97 said:

Well let's take a look....

 

First, let's point out 1 thing....both teams have played weak schedules. That isn't disputable. Now, let's look at the stats...

 

Clemson has won 7 games by 30+ points.  Bama has won 4 games by 30+.

Rankings (Offense):

Yards per game:

Clemson - 3

Bama - 9

Points Per Game:

Clemson - 6

Bama - 2

 

Rankings (Defense): 

Yards per game:

Clemson - 4

Bama - 16

Points Per game:

Clemson - 6

Bama - 9

 

So I'm curious WETSU, what 'stats' exactly did you base your assessment on?

You also said, "They have played several opponents of lesser value closer than they should have.". Really? Name them. UNC is 1, but 1 doesn't represent 'several'. 

I will get some stats for you when I have time tomorrow. But for now I’ll just tell you that espn has Bama as the more efficient team based on fpi rankings. Which is the way to go. Sure we can point to stats like yards per game, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. It doesn’t factor things like sos or garbage minutes or whatever. The fpi truly is the best thing I’ve seen in a long time as far as stats go. It has Bama slightly better overall, better offense and gives Clemson the edge defensively. 

And I think you’re taking this to an extreme. Nobody said Clemson is bad. I clearly said I believe they are a top 5 team. But having seen both teams against my team as well as watched several other games, Bama is the better team imo. That doesn’t mean I think Bama blows Clemson out or anything like that. I just don’t think Clemson is as good this year as they were last year, nor do I think they are better than Bama at the moment. 

 

[Coach Rab]

I can’t wait to read why OSU is ranked over LSU. Grab the popcorn, I’m sure it’s a great explanation 

[Champ1000]

54 minutes ago, MavGrad99 said:

I can’t wait to read why OSU is ranked over LSU. Grab the popcorn, I’m sure it’s a great explanation 

1 B1G and 1 SEC team are guaranteed while it gives both conferences a shot of getting 2 in. The Big 12 maybe the one left out along with the Pac. It will work itself out and Lsu , Ohio, Bama , and Clemson will be in the playoffs

[WETSU]

There’s a very real chance we do see Bama and LSU in the playoff. If the game is close this weekend, a td or less, I expect it to happen if both teams win out. Let’s just say LSU goes on the road and loses a dogfight to Bama 31-27 then wins out, they still have an extremely strong case of being a top 4 team. We will then have another offseason worth of arguing over whether the playoff should be the best 4 teams or just 4 conference champions. 

 

[Sportsfanatic1]

8 hours ago, MavGrad99 said:

I can’t wait to read why OSU is ranked over LSU. Grab the popcorn, I’m sure it’s a great explanation 

Me too. I mean, IMO they are good but not LSU good. I didn't get to see the rankings last night. Just now reading them.

Sooooo, PS is ahead of Clemson and OSU is #1? Sometimes I wonder if these people load up on the cannibas before they meet?

[Lobo97]

14 hours ago, WETSU said:

I will get some stats for you when I have time tomorrow. But for now I’ll just tell you that espn has Bama as the more efficient team based on fpi rankings. Which is the way to go. Sure we can point to stats like yards per game, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. It doesn’t factor things like sos or garbage minutes or whatever. The fpi truly is the best thing I’ve seen in a long time as far as stats go. It has Bama slightly better overall, better offense and gives Clemson the edge defensively. 

And I think you’re taking this to an extreme. Nobody said Clemson is bad. I clearly said I believe they are a top 5 team. But having seen both teams against my team as well as watched several other games, Bama is the better team imo. That doesn’t mean I think Bama blows Clemson out or anything like that. I just don’t think Clemson is as good this year as they were last year, nor do I think they are better than Bama at the moment. 

 

That's all fair. And to your point, the FPI has Bama rated with a 30 FPI, and Clemson with 29. So literally neck and neck. I am curious as to just what all the FPI is calculating, however, as even the FPI has Ohio State #1. I think most of us here would agree that Ohio State is not the best team in the country. 

 

FPI's Top 4:

Ohio State

Alabama

Clemson

LSU

 

I would actually have the same 4 teams, just the reverse order:

LSU

Clemson

Alabama

Ohio State

[Lobo97]

9 hours ago, WETSU said:

There’s a very real chance we do see Bama and LSU in the playoff. If the game is close this weekend, a td or less, I expect it to happen if both teams win out. Let’s just say LSU goes on the road and loses a dogfight to Bama 31-27 then wins out, they still have an extremely strong case of being a top 4 team. We will then have another offseason worth of arguing over whether the playoff should be the best 4 teams or just 4 conference champions. 

 

I agree on this years playoff. I think Ohio State and Clemson both win out, and both will be in. I think whomever loses the Bama-LSU game will only have the 1 loss, with the other finishing undefeated. Even if the game turns out to be a 2 TD game, I still think the resume will be better than anything the B12 or P12 champ can produce. 

 

 

[Coach Rab]

12 minutes ago, Lobo97 said:

I agree on this years playoff. I think Ohio State and Clemson both win out, and both will be in. I think whomever loses the Bama-LSU game will only have the 1 loss, with the other finishing undefeated. Even if the game turns out to be a 2 TD game, I still think the resume will be better than anything the B12 or P12 champ can produce. 

 

 

If LSU finds a way to beat Bama, they will not have another loss on their schedule.  For whatever reason, this is not the same A&M team that has the capability of beating LSU and that is honestly the only noteworthy team left on LSU's schedule.  Alabama still has Auburn to finish the season... which we all know can always turn out to be a wacky game.

[Champ1000]

If lsu wins they are still in a good position IMO. If Bama loses they might be in trouble reaching the playoffs. Lsu will have best resume for a one loss if they lose.

[Lobo97]

1 hour ago, MavGrad99 said:

If LSU finds a way to beat Bama, they will not have another loss on their schedule.  For whatever reason, this is not the same A&M team that has the capability of beating LSU and that is honestly the only noteworthy team left on LSU's schedule.  Alabama still has Auburn to finish the season... which we all know can always turn out to be a wacky game.

I agree. I don't think Bama loses to Auburn either. 

[Lobo97]

7 minutes ago, Champ1000 said:

If lsu wins they are still in a good position IMO. If Bama loses they might be in trouble reaching the playoffs. Lsu will have best resume for a one loss if they lose.

I don't know. I'm just not confident the committee will place an undefeated SEC team into the playoff. 

[Champ1000]

1.bama 2. Ohio 3. Clemson 4. Lsu . I honestly believe that is how it goes down.

That requires Ohio st winning the B1G and Michigan

Clemson obviously winning out. Can't see the committee leaving a undefeated Defending Champion out plus they know how to beat Alabama. LOL.

Bama has to beat Auburn which isnt easy. 

 

Oklahoma , Oregon will have to worse resumes. I really wish UCLA was good cause that would help out . 

Oregon needs auburn to upset Alabama. 

 

Baylor , Penn State , will have multiple losses and end up in a New Year's six bowl. 

[Champ1000]

9 minutes ago, Lobo97 said:

I agree. I don't think Bama loses to Auburn either. 

That game is funny . Like the Red River rivalry they ususally can go the other way. Auburn has Alabama and Georgia so I doubt they beat both. 

[Coach Rab]

1 hour ago, Champ1000 said:

1.bama 2. Ohio 3. Clemson 4. Lsu . I honestly believe that is how it goes down.

That requires Ohio st winning the B1G and Michigan

Clemson obviously winning out. Can't see the committee leaving a undefeated Defending Champion out plus they know how to beat Alabama. LOL.

Bama has to beat Auburn which isnt easy. 

 

Oklahoma , Oregon will have to worse resumes. I really wish UCLA was good cause that would help out . 

Oregon needs auburn to upset Alabama. 

 

Baylor , Penn State , will have multiple losses and end up in a New Year's six bowl. 

Oklahoma has to hope for a bad Ohio St loss, any Clemson loss, or either of the 2 SEC Schools with 2 losses...  Oklahoma also has a chance to impress as they play Baylor and will likely be in the B12 CCG.... likely against Baylor or K State (at this point, but how things can change on a dime in that conference).   With that being said, there is still light at the end of the tunnel for OU and a huge opportunity for Baylor if they can manage to knock off TCU, OU, and Texas to close out the season.

[Champ1000]

26 minutes ago, MavGrad99 said:

Oklahoma has to hope for a bad Ohio St loss, any Clemson loss, or either of the 2 SEC Schools with 2 losses...  Oklahoma also has a chance to impress as they play Baylor and will likely be in the B12 CCG.... likely against Baylor or K State (at this point, but how things can change on a dime in that conference).   With that being said, there is still light at the end of the tunnel for OU and a huge opportunity for Baylor if they can manage to knock off TCU, OU, and Texas to close out the season.

Agree but I do not think baylor gets passed Texas and Oklahoma. The chances Ou dropping two conference games are pretty slim. Baylor may lose to tcu and or texas. Baylor has a shot against Texas because of the pass. The horns pass defense is hurting them. Ohio seems to have an easier path cause I do  not trust Michigan or Penn State in a big game.