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MavGrad's NCAA Football Week 13 Preview


Coach Rab

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Not a lot to get into so I won't ramble this week.

#8 Penn State at #2 Ohio St  11:00 AM  FOX

This is one of those games where the team we all hate for whatever reason could be challenged and look vulnerable.  If they happen to just whip Penn St up and down the field like that have pretty much done everyone along the way watch out...  I will take the Buckeyes by 4 in a close one.

Texas A&M at #4 Georgia  2:30  CBS

This is another game that I am uncertain about.  The Aggies have pretty much been on the bottom of every big game that they have played this year, but they haven't been a completely terrible team.  Georgia has struggled to put up points in several games this season making them look vulnerable.  If Texas A&M can play mistake free, they can win this one.  Dawgs by 4.

Texas at #14 Baylor  2:30  FS1

The more talented team isn't always the winner as Texas has proven over and over again this year.  Baylor also proved it except on the other end of it.  Baylor has played disciplined football all season, even in their loss to OU, it didn't really get sloppy for the Bears.  Texas struggles continue to be around their 1 man offensive scheme.  If they include the other capable players this team could be explosive.  I am going to take the Horns by 2, but I don't think it will leave Texas fans satisfied.

Arkansas at #1 LSU  6:00  ESPN

Some whacky things always seem to happen in this game.  Not this year...  Arkansas looks bad.  LSU looks great.  It will be over sometime in the 2nd or 3rd quarter.  Tigers by 40.

TCU at #9 Oklahoma  7:00  FOX

Oklahoma will struggle early but end up pulling away in the end.  Sooners by 14.

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27 minutes ago, MavGrad99 said:

TCU at #9 Oklahoma  7:00  FOX
Oklahoma will struggle early but end up pulling away in the end.  Sooners by 14.

<sigh> Just hoping we don't make another scrub look like a Heisman candidate. 

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3 biggest games on the list:

 

Ohio State - Penn State: I think Penn State is a good team. I think IF they beat Ohio State, the should instantly leap Georgia for the 4 spot, as their resume and loss will both be better than Georgia. That said, I don't see it happening. Ohio State is favored by 18, and I fully expect them to cover. LSU is the #1 team based on their resume, and understandably so. Ohio State, however, has 'looked' like the best team in football. They have the #1 offense and #1 defense. 

 

Texas A&M - Georgia: Georgia's defense has been consistently good. A&M's has not. A&M's offense has been just as inconsistent as their defense...putting up points against very bad defenses, struggling against the better defenses, and even a couple times against average defenses. I think Georgia's defense will be too much, and their offense will be effective against an inconsistent defense. I think Georgia wins, and covers. 

 

Texas - Baylor: IF Texas wins, then I disagree with what you said...I think Texas fans WILL be satisfied. Even if it's just a 1 point win. 

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Georgia has played much worse defenses than A&Ms and struggled. They haven’t put up more than 22 points in 5 straight games. A&M is 23rd in the country giving up 20.3 ppg. I think Georgia will continue its struggle to score in this game. If A&M can put up 24, they will win this one. 

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If any Big10 team beats Ohio St it’s just pure luck. Ohio St is athletically superior than all the Big10 teams. 
 

Texas has more talent than Baylor, will the Texas coaches allow their athletes to win the game? VS Iowa St they didn’t. 
 

Texas A&M hasn’t beat a bowl eligible team yet, I think this is their best shot. Gotta match Georgia’s physicality, I think ATM can do that on defense but offensively I don’t think they can. 

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2 hours ago, JustAFan11 said:

If any Big10 team beats Ohio St it’s just pure luck. Ohio St is athletically superior than all the Big10 teams. 
 

Texas has more talent than Baylor, will the Texas coaches allow their athletes to win the game? VS Iowa St they didn’t. 
 

Texas A&M hasn’t beat a bowl eligible team yet, I think this is their best shot. Gotta match Georgia’s physicality, I think ATM can do that on defense but offensively I don’t think they can. 

I think they can score 3-4 times on UGA...  but A&M can't sustain drives on good defenses at a consistent level this year.  That is their biggest issue. 

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18 minutes ago, MavGrad99 said:

I think they can score 3-4 times on UGA...  but A&M can't sustain drives on good defenses at a consistent level this year.  That is their biggest issue. 

The emergence of the young TE finally grasping the offense and Mond trusting him is a big step in the right direction. Not saying they move the ball well, but I do think we see their best performance against a good opponent yet. 

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5 hours ago, Lobo97 said:

Texas A&M - Georgia: Georgia's defense has been consistently good. A&M's has not. A&M's offense has been just as inconsistent as their defense...putting up points against very bad defenses, struggling against the better defenses, and even a couple times against average defenses. I think Georgia's defense will be too much, and their offense will be effective against an inconsistent defense. I think Georgia wins, and covers. 

A&M's defense has given up a lot of points to Alabama and then to Miss St, well after the game was decided. THAT SAID, you're right- UGA's defense has been very strong. Georgia's offense has done less or similar against common opponents. They scored 21 on Auburn where A&M scored 20. And they scored 17 against South Carolina (with 2 OT periods tacked on, so 2 drives starting from the 25) whereas A&M scored 30. 

All that said, being in Athens, I think A&M's only shot of winning is to be +2 in the turnover margin (similar to how South Carolina beat them). If they are, I could see them winning. If not, they have no chance. 

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49 minutes ago, JohnnyFootball said:

A&M's defense has given up a lot of points to Alabama and then to Miss St, well after the game was decided. THAT SAID, you're right- UGA's defense has been very strong. Georgia's offense has done less or similar against common opponents. They scored 21 on Auburn where A&M scored 20. And they scored 17 against South Carolina (with 2 OT periods tacked on, so 2 drives starting from the 25) whereas A&M scored 30. 

All that said, being in Athens, I think A&M's only shot of winning is to be +2 in the turnover margin (similar to how South Carolina beat them). If they are, I could see them winning. If not, they have no chance. 

I think it's hard to compare them based on margin of victory against common opponents, as they run two different style offenses (GA also played Auburn on the road, A&M played them at home). Georgia wants to wear you down, pound it out, and control the clock. Unless they're playing someone like Arkansas State, I don't think you'll see them put up 40+ points this season. Their last 4 games were all against Top 25 defenses, and they still had TOP of over 30 mins. Their game against South Carolina, they actually controlled every aspect of that game...nearly 200 more yards offense, 13 more mins TOP, twice as many FD's, but they also had 4 turnovers, to SC's 0. 

Defensively, only SC has broken 20 against them, and it took a pick 6 and 2 OT's to do that. 

 

I do think A&M will be the best offense they've faced. I could see this game finishing 31-20, Georgia. I also think this game will depend heavily on which Kellen Mond shows up. 

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7 minutes ago, Lobo97 said:

I think it's hard to compare them based on margin of victory against common opponents, as they run two different style offenses (GA also played Auburn on the road, A&M played them at home). Georgia wants to wear you down, pound it out, and control the clock. Unless they're playing someone like Arkansas State, I don't think you'll see them put up 40+ points this season. Their last 4 games were all against Top 25 defenses, and they still had TOP of over 30 mins. Their game against South Carolina, they actually controlled every aspect of that game...nearly 200 more yards offense, 13 more mins TOP, twice as many FD's, but they also had 4 turnovers, to SC's 0. 

Defensively, only SC has broken 20 against them, and it took a pick 6 and 2 OT's to do that. 

I do think A&M will be the best offense they've faced. I could see this game finishing 31-20, Georgia. I also think this game will depend heavily on which Kellen Mond shows up. 

All strong points.

Regarding offensive philosophies, though, they're more similar than you think. A&M averages 33:53 in time of possession compared to 33:45 of Georgia. Last season A&M had even better TOP. That's a big thing a lot of us like about Jimbo that we missed under Sumlin- controlling the pace of the game. Sumlin teams were great doing the no huddle stuff..... Until you're kicking it back to the other team after 90 seconds and letting them wear on your defense some more. 

Also a good point about the pick 6 of South Carolina. I agreed already that the UGA defense is extremely strong. A&M will struggle to score on them, so our only chance is to hold them under about 17 points. And the only way to do that it is to play tough defense AND get a few turnovers. 

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2 hours ago, JohnnyFootball said:

 Until you're kicking it back to the other team after 90 seconds and letting them wear on your defense some more.

I swear Mazzone had a bet going on how fast he could get to 4th down. 

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10 hours ago, trueblue82 said:

SFA taking the axe to some demons over in Natchitoches tonight. Jack’s up 27-0 in the second quarter. Looks like Chief Caddo might reside in Texas for a year. 

Final: SFA 32 NSU 20. Chief Caddo will get to hang out in the Baker Patillo Student Center for the next year. 

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5 hours ago, trueblue82 said:

Final: SFA 32 NSU 20. Chief Caddo will get to hang out in the Baker Patillo Student Center for the next year. 

NSU didn't show any fight until we were carrying Caddo across the field. 

The best part was Carthel yelling at the team to "Get to the locker room! Get to the locker room!" only to remember Turpin Stadium doesn't have visitor locker rooms...Then he yelled "Get to our sideline! Get to our sideline!"

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24 minutes ago, topher805 said:

NSU didn't show any fight until we were carrying Caddo across the field. 

The best part was Carthel yelling at the team to "Get to the locker room! Get to the locker room!" only to remember Turpin Stadium doesn't have visitor locker rooms...Then he yelled "Get to our sideline! Get to our sideline!"

An FCS program with no visitors locker rooms? Wow. My daughter said she had seen better high school stadiums, but I didn’t know it was that bad. Where does the visiting team dress? 

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8 minutes ago, Sportsfanatic1 said:

Georgia is daring Mond to throw the ball. 8 man fronts

Yea A&M will have to soften up Georgia with a few passes if they have any shot of even getting first downs. I don’t think they will run the ball well unless it’s Mond scrambles. 

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