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Paul Pewitt vs Daingerfield - MORRIS COUNTY REMATCH!!!


Brahmaball

Quarterfinals  

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  1. 1. Who Ya Got?


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  • Poll closed on 12/07/2019 at 01:00 AM

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16 minutes ago, cotton84 said:

Last week when SFA beat Duke, they made special shirts showing the score.  I got mine ordered. 
Natureboy should do the same after winning this week and wear it to next week’s game.

EB.  Just saw where for some reason it quoted you in my comment.  Was not intended. 

Well since your so confident go ahead and pre order them and just put what you "know" the score will be. No need to wait.

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3 minutes ago, EastTexasSpeedKills said:

Drove thru Pewitt a while ago, they were having cheerleading practice for Friday nights game. Took this picture, much improvement from years past! They are pretty good. 
6AC2FED1-FE9C-441E-9FDB-F08B1E3904D1.jpeg 

We got those for the df fans we know what yall like so give you something to look at. That way you dont have to look at the scoreboard 

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9 minutes ago, Eagle27 said:

DF should prepare for the worst and hope for the best against them Heifers, they a little more salty than them 2019 figs. 

Oh yeah I forgot we ain't played them yet. We better prepare for the non newton eagles lmao. 

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22 hours ago, Brahmaball said:

I just got off the phone with mp and begged them to let dfield fans bring their emotional support animals. Just looking out for my buddies over there.

we are bringing our emotional animal, we draggin him out to center field and beating that animal to a pulp,, hes a brahma lol 

Daingerfield 42

PP 28

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2 minutes ago, wildtigers said:

Go look at some video of #9 for Newton, to hold him to 130 yards was a feat in itself.  He is one of the best running backs I have seen all year.

Absolutely! We must have played good defense from the Newton coaches perspective, they sure  chose to punt that ball on that 4 and 3! ( sure glad they did) 

I don’t know what’s wrong with my 🦅 buddy, BB must not be going well.

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If I were a betting person, I would have to go with them painted Tigers. They are more balanced and now days ground and pound works for average teams but good teams will have a defense that should stop a one dimensional  team. The old Celina 10-1 defense will really put a damper on the ground and pound. I don't have a preference just hope whoever wins goes to the ship. Colored (Blue) Tigers should win unless they have a big let down after last weeks big win.

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Ok, so I got some numbers on this one.  In the last matchup, I had Daingerfield in a tight, high-scoring game.  I think something like 33-32. 

Since district started and including all playoff games played (by DF, PP, and all of their opponents), DF is scoring 42.7 ppg against defenses that allow 27.7 ppg.  DF is allowing 18.3 ppg to teams that average 31.0 ppg.  So, DF's offense is taking what defenses normally allow and adding 15.0 points to that on average, and then allowing 12.7 fewer points than they normally score.  Total swing in DF's favor is +27.6.

PP is scoring 48.1 ppg against defenses that allow 28.9 ppg and allowing 21.8 to offenses that average 29.7 ppg, so PP's offense is adding 19.2 points to what defenses normally allow and then allowing 7.9 fewer points than teams average.  Total swing in PP's favor is +27.1

So, DF's swing is +27.6, and PP's average margin of victory is 26.3.  Once you apply DF's swing to that, you get DF favored by 1.3 points.  On the flip side, if you apply PP's swing of +27.1 to DF's average margin of victory (24.3), you get PP favored by 2.8.  Put all this together because none of this matters, and you get PP favored by .75 points.  Final prediction based on all games since district :

PP 37

DF 36

At this point, I like to filter the games in a few different ways.  Here are some of these scenarios, and the following is based on numbers from all games played - including pre-district, and the above stat I call "swing" is the metric I use for "good" or "bad" games :

Considering each teams 4 best swing games :  DF 37, PP 36

Each teams 4 worst swing games : PP 27, DF 10

DF's worst 4 vs PP's best 4 : PP 41, DF 12

PP's worst 4 vs DF's best 4 : DF 35, PP 22

In the playoffs, Pewitt is scoring a whopping 27.1 points MORE than the defense they are playing gives up on average.  The problem if you're Pewitt is that Daingerfield's defense is holding teams to a whopping 27.5 points FEWER than they normally score on average.  Pewitt is also holding teams to 13 fewer points than they average, and DF is scoring 9.2 points more than teams allow, so these numbers favor Pewitt a bit.  Considering just playoff games (and only their playoff opponents' district and playoff games), I have Pewitt in a 30-23 win.

For my "range of possibilities", according to what each team has demonstrated this year, if DF matches their single worst performance of the year from a scoring vs strength of opponent perspective while PP matches their best single performance, I get Pewitt in a 48-16 win.  FYI, I have DF's 26-12 win over New Boston as their single worst performance (-0.5 swing), and PP's 53-20 win over Bells as their single best (+43.9 swing).  On the flip side, PP's single worst performance vs DF's single best, I get DF in a 63-21 win.  PP's worst performance was their 27-14 win over New Boston (-1.6 swing - kinda crazy that it's the same opponent!) and DF's best being the 70-28 win over Elysian Fields (+53.1 swing).

Overall, the prediction is :

PP 37

DF 36

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58 minutes ago, jimmyw said:

If I were a betting person, I would have to go with them painted Tigers. They are more balanced and now days ground and pound works for average teams but good teams will have a defense that should stop a one dimensional  team. The old Celina 10-1 defense will really put a damper on the ground and pound. I don't have a preference just hope whoever wins goes to the ship. Colored (Blue) Tigers should win unless they have a big let down after last weeks big win.

we do still have our stripe lol 

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