tigernationfan Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 44 minutes ago, Pax said: Ok, so I got some numbers on this one. In the last matchup, I had Daingerfield in a tight, high-scoring game. I think something like 33-32. Since district started and including all playoff games played (by DF, PP, and all of their opponents), DF is scoring 42.7 ppg against defenses that allow 27.7 ppg. DF is allowing 18.3 ppg to teams that average 31.0 ppg. So, DF's offense is taking what defenses normally allow and adding 15.0 points to that on average, and then allowing 12.7 fewer points than they normally score. Total swing in DF's favor is +27.6. PP is scoring 48.1 ppg against defenses that allow 28.9 ppg and allowing 21.8 to offenses that average 29.7 ppg, so PP's offense is adding 19.2 points to what defenses normally allow and then allowing 7.9 fewer points than teams average. Total swing in PP's favor is +27.1 So, DF's swing is +27.6, and PP's average margin of victory is 26.3. Once you apply DF's swing to that, you get DF favored by 1.3 points. On the flip side, if you apply PP's swing of +27.1 to DF's average margin of victory (24.3), you get PP favored by 2.8. Put all this together because none of this matters, and you get PP favored by .75 points. Final prediction based on all games since district : PP 37 DF 36 At this point, I like to filter the games in a few different ways. Here are some of these scenarios, and the following is based on numbers from all games played - including pre-district, and the above stat I call "swing" is the metric I use for "good" or "bad" games : Considering each teams 4 best swing games : DF 37, PP 36 Each teams 4 worst swing games : PP 27, DF 10 DF's worst 4 vs PP's best 4 : PP 41, DF 12 PP's worst 4 vs DF's best 4 : DF 35, PP 22 In the playoffs, Pewitt is scoring a whopping 27.1 points MORE than the defense they are playing gives up on average. The problem if you're Pewitt is that Daingerfield's defense is holding teams to a whopping 27.5 points FEWER than they normally score on average. Pewitt is also holding teams to 13 fewer points than they average, and DF is scoring 9.2 points more than teams allow, so these numbers favor Pewitt a bit. Considering just playoff games (and only their playoff opponents' district and playoff games), I have Pewitt in a 30-23 win. For my "range of possibilities", according to what each team has demonstrated this year, if DF matches their single worst performance of the year from a scoring vs strength of opponent perspective while PP matches their best single performance, I get Pewitt in a 48-16 win. FYI, I have DF's 26-12 win over New Boston as their single worst performance (-0.5 swing), and PP's 53-20 win over Bells as their single best (+43.9 swing). On the flip side, PP's single worst performance vs DF's single best, I get DF in a 63-21 win. PP's worst performance was their 27-14 win over New Boston (-1.6 swing - kinda crazy that it's the same opponent!) and DF's best being the 70-28 win over Elysian Fields (+53.1 swing). Overall, the prediction is : PP 37 DF 36 but them 2 turnovers is gonna cost them brahmas...lol PP 37 DF 50 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newtonres7586 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 6:33 PM, Crawford said: Is there a radio station online for this game? I hope it's on the NFHS network or Texan live. I got a notification from Texan live, and they were not on the schedule. I did notice that East Bernard vs. Ganado was on for live video. If I can't get DF and PP I'll catch that game. They are the next in line outside the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigernationfan Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Just now, Newtonres7586 said: I got a notification from Texan live, and they were not on the schedule. I did notice that East Bernard vs. Ganado was on for live video. If I can't get DF and PP I'll catch that game. They are the next in line outside the region. just drive on over to mt pleasant. they got good food over there too.. and its gonna be a game you dont wanna miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eagleborn Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 1 hour ago, jimmyw said: If I were a betting person, I would have to go with them painted Tigers. They are more balanced and now days ground and pound works for average teams but good teams will have a defense that should stop a one dimensional team. The old Celina 10-1 defense will really put a damper on the ground and pound. I don't have a preference just hope whoever wins goes to the ship. Colored (Blue) Tigers should win unless they have a big let down after last weeks big win. No one truely runs that anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newtonres7586 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, tigernationfan said: just drive on over to mt pleasant. they got good food over there too.. and its gonna be a game you dont wanna miss Thanks for the invite, Nation. I wish I could, but that is a little fer piece for me. I'll be listening if I can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuleSlicks Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, Newtonres7586 said: I got a notification from Texan live, and they were not on the schedule. I did notice that East Bernard vs. Ganado was on for live video. If I can't get DF and PP I'll catch that game. They are the next in line outside the region. 97.7 K-Lake. Online radio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigernationfan Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Newtonres7586 said: Thanks for the invite, Nation. I wish I could, but that is a little fer piece for me. I'll be listening if I can you can download the app for 97.7 klake or star 96.9 . to be honest i didnt make it to SFA so i had the 97.7 app on my phone and was tuned in lol ... hated i missed the game in person, it sounded like it was a nail biter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newtonres7586 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Just now, MuleSlicks said: 97.7 K-Lake. Online radio. Ah,yes, I caught that on the Friday when Newton played on Thursday. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastTexasSpeedKills Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Pax said: Ok, so I got some numbers on this one. In the last matchup, I had Daingerfield in a tight, high-scoring game. I think something like 33-32. Since district started and including all playoff games played (by DF, PP, and all of their opponents), DF is scoring 42.7 ppg against defenses that allow 27.7 ppg. DF is allowing 18.3 ppg to teams that average 31.0 ppg. So, DF's offense is taking what defenses normally allow and adding 15.0 points to that on average, and then allowing 12.7 fewer points than they normally score. Total swing in DF's favor is +27.6. PP is scoring 48.1 ppg against defenses that allow 28.9 ppg and allowing 21.8 to offenses that average 29.7 ppg, so PP's offense is adding 19.2 points to what defenses normally allow and then allowing 7.9 fewer points than teams average. Total swing in PP's favor is +27.1 So, DF's swing is +27.6, and PP's average margin of victory is 26.3. Once you apply DF's swing to that, you get DF favored by 1.3 points. On the flip side, if you apply PP's swing of +27.1 to DF's average margin of victory (24.3), you get PP favored by 2.8. Put all this together because none of this matters, and you get PP favored by .75 points. Final prediction based on all games since district : PP 37 DF 36 At this point, I like to filter the games in a few different ways. Here are some of these scenarios, and the following is based on numbers from all games played - including pre-district, and the above stat I call "swing" is the metric I use for "good" or "bad" games : Considering each teams 4 best swing games : DF 37, PP 36 Each teams 4 worst swing games : PP 27, DF 10 DF's worst 4 vs PP's best 4 : PP 41, DF 12 PP's worst 4 vs DF's best 4 : DF 35, PP 22 In the playoffs, Pewitt is scoring a whopping 27.1 points MORE than the defense they are playing gives up on average. The problem if you're Pewitt is that Daingerfield's defense is holding teams to a whopping 27.5 points FEWER than they normally score on average. Pewitt is also holding teams to 13 fewer points than they average, and DF is scoring 9.2 points more than teams allow, so these numbers favor Pewitt a bit. Considering just playoff games (and only their playoff opponents' district and playoff games), I have Pewitt in a 30-23 win. For my "range of possibilities", according to what each team has demonstrated this year, if DF matches their single worst performance of the year from a scoring vs strength of opponent perspective while PP matches their best single performance, I get Pewitt in a 48-16 win. FYI, I have DF's 26-12 win over New Boston as their single worst performance (-0.5 swing), and PP's 53-20 win over Bells as their single best (+43.9 swing). On the flip side, PP's single worst performance vs DF's single best, I get DF in a 63-21 win. PP's worst performance was their 27-14 win over New Boston (-1.6 swing - kinda crazy that it's the same opponent!) and DF's best being the 70-28 win over Elysian Fields (+53.1 swing). Overall, the prediction is : PP 37 DF 36 Pax we sure appreciate all your hard work running all theses numbers and all, but before you make your final game day prediction, you might want to watch this short video clip. Eveidently some people think the slot T offense has weaknesses. ( just trying to provide all relevant information I can). Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newtonres7586 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 16 minutes ago, tigernationfan said: you can download the app for 97.7 klake or star 96.9 . to be honest i didnt make it to SFA so i had the 97.7 app on my phone and was tuned in lol ... hated i missed the game in person, it sounded like it was a nail biter I guess I'm gonna have to. For some reason I cannot get the dern thing to load when I click on it. Come to think about it , how can I download the app if I can't get the station to load on my I pad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigernationfan Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 8 minutes ago, Newtonres7586 said: I guess I'm gonna have to. For some reason I cannot get the dern thing to load when I click on it. Come to think about it , how can I download the app if I can't get the station to load on my I pad. smartphone app.. look in your app store. its free just search klake 97.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newtonres7586 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 1 minute ago, tigernationfan said: smartphone app.. look in your app store. its free just search klake 97.7 OK, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spanky Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 What do both teams have coming back next year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigernationfan Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Just now, spanky said: What do both teams have coming back next year? a lot of talent coming up. about the same or more. Jv team this yr has been undefeated for 3 years and i think only losing 4 or 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AttaKid0596 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 43 minutes ago, EastTexasSpeedKills said: Pax we sure appreciate all your hard work running all theses numbers and all, but before you make your final game day prediction, you might want to watch this short video clip. Eveidently some people think the slot T offense has weaknesses. ( just trying to provide all relevant information I can). Lol So, what I get from this video is that if you run the spread offense, or any offense other than the wing-t, you will have better athletes. The spread doesn't require offensive linemen that can move and backs that "perform their assignments equally well?" That makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newtonres7586 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 44 minutes ago, tigernationfan said: smartphone app.. look in your app store. its free just search klake 97.7 Well, I'm back. Thanks for all your help Nation. I did just what you said and it worked. However, when I went to download the app, a message came up to tell me I needed IOS 12.1 to download. I went to bing to learn how to download IOS 12.1, the guy on the video said "you better think twice before downloading IOS 12.1". Once you have it you can't go back to your original blah, blah. That scared me off. So I'll take my chances on trying to find it somewhere. I think I can. That's a long winded Thank You for your help. I'll find it somewhere. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastTexasSpeedKills Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 34 minutes ago, AttaKid0596 said: So, what I get from this video is that if you run the spread offense, or any offense other than the wing-t, you will have better athletes. The spread doesn't require offensive linemen that can move and backs that "perform their assignments equally well?" That makes no sense. I wasn’t endorsing the video at all, just wanted to use it to make the point that everybody knows that with the slot t offense ( in most cases) ( Paul Pewitt does run it really well in my opinion), there is a lot of pressure to not make mistakes, penalties, and specially turnovers! As well as the importance of staying ahead of your opponents. For most teams that run this style of offense, they have a hard time winning it all. For Pewitts defense, they have. ( just trying to pass the time till Friday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Rab Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 23 minutes ago, Newtonres7586 said: Well, I'm back. Thanks for all your help Nation. I did just what you said and it worked. However, when I went to download the app, a message came up to tell me I needed IOS 12.1 to download. I went to bing to learn how to download IOS 12.1, the guy on the video said "you better think twice before downloading IOS 12.1". Once you have it you can't go back to your original blah, blah. That scared me off. So I'll take my chances on trying to find it somewhere. I think I can. That's a long winded Thank You for your help. I'll find it somewhere. Lol 12.1 isn’t bad. They already fixed most of the bugs. Go to Settings> General> Software updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newtonres7586 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Just now, MavGrad99 said: 12.1 isn’t bad. They already fixed most of the bugs. Go to Settings> General> Software updates 10/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawknation03 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Shout out to Coach Cedric Dorsey! Good luck this week coach. This should be a heck of a game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSUTIGERS Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 3 hours ago, Pax said: Ok, so I got some numbers on this one. In the last matchup, I had Daingerfield in a tight, high-scoring game. I think something like 33-32. Since district started and including all playoff games played (by DF, PP, and all of their opponents), DF is scoring 42.7 ppg against defenses that allow 27.7 ppg. DF is allowing 18.3 ppg to teams that average 31.0 ppg. So, DF's offense is taking what defenses normally allow and adding 15.0 points to that on average, and then allowing 12.7 fewer points than they normally score. Total swing in DF's favor is +27.6. PP is scoring 48.1 ppg against defenses that allow 28.9 ppg and allowing 21.8 to offenses that average 29.7 ppg, so PP's offense is adding 19.2 points to what defenses normally allow and then allowing 7.9 fewer points than teams average. Total swing in PP's favor is +27.1 So, DF's swing is +27.6, and PP's average margin of victory is 26.3. Once you apply DF's swing to that, you get DF favored by 1.3 points. On the flip side, if you apply PP's swing of +27.1 to DF's average margin of victory (24.3), you get PP favored by 2.8. Put all this together because none of this matters, and you get PP favored by .75 points. Final prediction based on all games since district : PP 37 DF 36 At this point, I like to filter the games in a few different ways. Here are some of these scenarios, and the following is based on numbers from all games played - including pre-district, and the above stat I call "swing" is the metric I use for "good" or "bad" games : Considering each teams 4 best swing games : DF 37, PP 36 Each teams 4 worst swing games : PP 27, DF 10 DF's worst 4 vs PP's best 4 : PP 41, DF 12 PP's worst 4 vs DF's best 4 : DF 35, PP 22 In the playoffs, Pewitt is scoring a whopping 27.1 points MORE than the defense they are playing gives up on average. The problem if you're Pewitt is that Daingerfield's defense is holding teams to a whopping 27.5 points FEWER than they normally score on average. Pewitt is also holding teams to 13 fewer points than they average, and DF is scoring 9.2 points more than teams allow, so these numbers favor Pewitt a bit. Considering just playoff games (and only their playoff opponents' district and playoff games), I have Pewitt in a 30-23 win. For my "range of possibilities", according to what each team has demonstrated this year, if DF matches their single worst performance of the year from a scoring vs strength of opponent perspective while PP matches their best single performance, I get Pewitt in a 48-16 win. FYI, I have DF's 26-12 win over New Boston as their single worst performance (-0.5 swing), and PP's 53-20 win over Bells as their single best (+43.9 swing). On the flip side, PP's single worst performance vs DF's single best, I get DF in a 63-21 win. PP's worst performance was their 27-14 win over New Boston (-1.6 swing - kinda crazy that it's the same opponent!) and DF's best being the 70-28 win over Elysian Fields (+53.1 swing). Overall, the prediction is : PP 37 DF 36 Great info Pax! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brahmaball Posted December 4, 2019 Author Share Posted December 4, 2019 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brahmaball Posted December 4, 2019 Author Share Posted December 4, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fblife13 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, Brahmaball said: Wow. That's awesome. To bad it comes to a end Friday. But that's something to be proud of. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TTman7 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 27 minutes ago, Brahmaball said: 28 minutes ago, Brahmaball said: That's VERY impressive!! Outstanding!! This 2nd time around, DF won't be able to stop this rushing & smashmouth attack of the Brahmas. Limit and/or nullify the turnovers and this game belongs to PP. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts