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Paul Pewitt vs Daingerfield - MORRIS COUNTY REMATCH!!!


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Ok, so I got some numbers on this one.  In the last matchup, I had Daingerfield in a tight, high-scoring game.  I think something like 33-32. 

Since district started and including all playoff games played (by DF, PP, and all of their opponents), DF is scoring 42.7 ppg against defenses that allow 27.7 ppg.  DF is allowing 18.3 ppg to teams that average 31.0 ppg.  So, DF's offense is taking what defenses normally allow and adding 15.0 points to that on average, and then allowing 12.7 fewer points than they normally score.  Total swing in DF's favor is +27.6.

PP is scoring 48.1 ppg against defenses that allow 28.9 ppg and allowing 21.8 to offenses that average 29.7 ppg, so PP's offense is adding 19.2 points to what defenses normally allow and then allowing 7.9 fewer points than teams average.  Total swing in PP's favor is +27.1

So, DF's swing is +27.6, and PP's average margin of victory is 26.3.  Once you apply DF's swing to that, you get DF favored by 1.3 points.  On the flip side, if you apply PP's swing of +27.1 to DF's average margin of victory (24.3), you get PP favored by 2.8.  Put all this together because none of this matters, and you get PP favored by .75 points.  Final prediction based on all games since district :

PP 37

DF 36

At this point, I like to filter the games in a few different ways.  Here are some of these scenarios, and the following is based on numbers from all games played - including pre-district, and the above stat I call "swing" is the metric I use for "good" or "bad" games :

Considering each teams 4 best swing games :  DF 37, PP 36

Each teams 4 worst swing games : PP 27, DF 10

DF's worst 4 vs PP's best 4 : PP 41, DF 12

PP's worst 4 vs DF's best 4 : DF 35, PP 22

In the playoffs, Pewitt is scoring a whopping 27.1 points MORE than the defense they are playing gives up on average.  The problem if you're Pewitt is that Daingerfield's defense is holding teams to a whopping 27.5 points FEWER than they normally score on average.  Pewitt is also holding teams to 13 fewer points than they average, and DF is scoring 9.2 points more than teams allow, so these numbers favor Pewitt a bit.  Considering just playoff games (and only their playoff opponents' district and playoff games), I have Pewitt in a 30-23 win.

For my "range of possibilities", according to what each team has demonstrated this year, if DF matches their single worst performance of the year from a scoring vs strength of opponent perspective while PP matches their best single performance, I get Pewitt in a 48-16 win.  FYI, I have DF's 26-12 win over New Boston as their single worst performance (-0.5 swing), and PP's 53-20 win over Bells as their single best (+43.9 swing).  On the flip side, PP's single worst performance vs DF's single best, I get DF in a 63-21 win.  PP's worst performance was their 27-14 win over New Boston (-1.6 swing - kinda crazy that it's the same opponent!) and DF's best being the 70-28 win over Elysian Fields (+53.1 swing).

Overall, the prediction is :

PP 37

DF 36

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They beat DeKalb. Ha ha ha 

Hey Natureboy, if you can hear me, your poll is up. lol

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58 minutes ago, jimmyw said:

If I were a betting person, I would have to go with them painted Tigers. They are more balanced and now days ground and pound works for average teams but good teams will have a defense that should stop a one dimensional  team. The old Celina 10-1 defense will really put a damper on the ground and pound. I don't have a preference just hope whoever wins goes to the ship. Colored (Blue) Tigers should win unless they have a big let down after last weeks big win.

we do still have our stripe lol 

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44 minutes ago, Pax said:

Ok, so I got some numbers on this one.  In the last matchup, I had Daingerfield in a tight, high-scoring game.  I think something like 33-32. 

Since district started and including all playoff games played (by DF, PP, and all of their opponents), DF is scoring 42.7 ppg against defenses that allow 27.7 ppg.  DF is allowing 18.3 ppg to teams that average 31.0 ppg.  So, DF's offense is taking what defenses normally allow and adding 15.0 points to that on average, and then allowing 12.7 fewer points than they normally score.  Total swing in DF's favor is +27.6.

PP is scoring 48.1 ppg against defenses that allow 28.9 ppg and allowing 21.8 to offenses that average 29.7 ppg, so PP's offense is adding 19.2 points to what defenses normally allow and then allowing 7.9 fewer points than teams average.  Total swing in PP's favor is +27.1

So, DF's swing is +27.6, and PP's average margin of victory is 26.3.  Once you apply DF's swing to that, you get DF favored by 1.3 points.  On the flip side, if you apply PP's swing of +27.1 to DF's average margin of victory (24.3), you get PP favored by 2.8.  Put all this together because none of this matters, and you get PP favored by .75 points.  Final prediction based on all games since district :

PP 37

DF 36

At this point, I like to filter the games in a few different ways.  Here are some of these scenarios, and the following is based on numbers from all games played - including pre-district, and the above stat I call "swing" is the metric I use for "good" or "bad" games :

Considering each teams 4 best swing games :  DF 37, PP 36

Each teams 4 worst swing games : PP 27, DF 10

DF's worst 4 vs PP's best 4 : PP 41, DF 12

PP's worst 4 vs DF's best 4 : DF 35, PP 22

In the playoffs, Pewitt is scoring a whopping 27.1 points MORE than the defense they are playing gives up on average.  The problem if you're Pewitt is that Daingerfield's defense is holding teams to a whopping 27.5 points FEWER than they normally score on average.  Pewitt is also holding teams to 13 fewer points than they average, and DF is scoring 9.2 points more than teams allow, so these numbers favor Pewitt a bit.  Considering just playoff games (and only their playoff opponents' district and playoff games), I have Pewitt in a 30-23 win.

For my "range of possibilities", according to what each team has demonstrated this year, if DF matches their single worst performance of the year from a scoring vs strength of opponent perspective while PP matches their best single performance, I get Pewitt in a 48-16 win.  FYI, I have DF's 26-12 win over New Boston as their single worst performance (-0.5 swing), and PP's 53-20 win over Bells as their single best (+43.9 swing).  On the flip side, PP's single worst performance vs DF's single best, I get DF in a 63-21 win.  PP's worst performance was their 27-14 win over New Boston (-1.6 swing - kinda crazy that it's the same opponent!) and DF's best being the 70-28 win over Elysian Fields (+53.1 swing).

Overall, the prediction is :

PP 37

DF 36

but them 2 turnovers is gonna cost them brahmas...lol 

PP 37

DF 50

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On 12/2/2019 at 6:33 PM, Crawford said:

Is there a radio station online for this game? I hope it's on the NFHS network or Texan live.

I got a notification from Texan live, and they were not on the schedule. I did notice that East Bernard vs. Ganado was on for live video. If I can't get DF and PP I'll catch that game. They are the next in line outside the region.

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Just now, Newtonres7586 said:

I got a notification from Texan live, and they were not on the schedule. I did notice that East Bernard vs. Ganado was on for live video. If I can't get DF and PP I'll catch that game. They are the next in line outside the region.

just drive on over to mt pleasant. they got good food over there too.. and its gonna be a game you dont wanna miss

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1 hour ago, jimmyw said:

If I were a betting person, I would have to go with them painted Tigers. They are more balanced and now days ground and pound works for average teams but good teams will have a defense that should stop a one dimensional  team. The old Celina 10-1 defense will really put a damper on the ground and pound. I don't have a preference just hope whoever wins goes to the ship. Colored (Blue) Tigers should win unless they have a big let down after last weeks big win.

No one truely runs that anymore. 

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3 minutes ago, tigernationfan said:

just drive on over to mt pleasant. they got good food over there too.. and its gonna be a game you dont wanna miss

Thanks for the invite, Nation. I wish I could, but that is a little fer  piece for me. I'll be listening if I can

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7 minutes ago, Newtonres7586 said:

I got a notification from Texan live, and they were not on the schedule. I did notice that East Bernard vs. Ganado was on for live video. If I can't get DF and PP I'll catch that game. They are the next in line outside the region.

97.7 K-Lake.  Online radio.

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1 minute ago, Newtonres7586 said:

Thanks for the invite, Nation. I wish I could, but that is a little fer  piece for me. I'll be listening if I can

you can download the app for 97.7 klake or star 96.9 .  to be honest i didnt make it to SFA so i had the 97.7 app on my phone and was tuned in lol ... hated i missed the game in person, it sounded like it was a nail biter 

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Just now, MuleSlicks said:

97.7 K-Lake.  Online radio.

Ah,yes, I caught that on the Friday when Newton played on Thursday.

Thanks

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1 hour ago, Pax said:

Ok, so I got some numbers on this one.  In the last matchup, I had Daingerfield in a tight, high-scoring game.  I think something like 33-32. 

Since district started and including all playoff games played (by DF, PP, and all of their opponents), DF is scoring 42.7 ppg against defenses that allow 27.7 ppg.  DF is allowing 18.3 ppg to teams that average 31.0 ppg.  So, DF's offense is taking what defenses normally allow and adding 15.0 points to that on average, and then allowing 12.7 fewer points than they normally score.  Total swing in DF's favor is +27.6.

PP is scoring 48.1 ppg against defenses that allow 28.9 ppg and allowing 21.8 to offenses that average 29.7 ppg, so PP's offense is adding 19.2 points to what defenses normally allow and then allowing 7.9 fewer points than teams average.  Total swing in PP's favor is +27.1

So, DF's swing is +27.6, and PP's average margin of victory is 26.3.  Once you apply DF's swing to that, you get DF favored by 1.3 points.  On the flip side, if you apply PP's swing of +27.1 to DF's average margin of victory (24.3), you get PP favored by 2.8.  Put all this together because none of this matters, and you get PP favored by .75 points.  Final prediction based on all games since district :

PP 37

DF 36

At this point, I like to filter the games in a few different ways.  Here are some of these scenarios, and the following is based on numbers from all games played - including pre-district, and the above stat I call "swing" is the metric I use for "good" or "bad" games :

Considering each teams 4 best swing games :  DF 37, PP 36

Each teams 4 worst swing games : PP 27, DF 10

DF's worst 4 vs PP's best 4 : PP 41, DF 12

PP's worst 4 vs DF's best 4 : DF 35, PP 22

In the playoffs, Pewitt is scoring a whopping 27.1 points MORE than the defense they are playing gives up on average.  The problem if you're Pewitt is that Daingerfield's defense is holding teams to a whopping 27.5 points FEWER than they normally score on average.  Pewitt is also holding teams to 13 fewer points than they average, and DF is scoring 9.2 points more than teams allow, so these numbers favor Pewitt a bit.  Considering just playoff games (and only their playoff opponents' district and playoff games), I have Pewitt in a 30-23 win.

For my "range of possibilities", according to what each team has demonstrated this year, if DF matches their single worst performance of the year from a scoring vs strength of opponent perspective while PP matches their best single performance, I get Pewitt in a 48-16 win.  FYI, I have DF's 26-12 win over New Boston as their single worst performance (-0.5 swing), and PP's 53-20 win over Bells as their single best (+43.9 swing).  On the flip side, PP's single worst performance vs DF's single best, I get DF in a 63-21 win.  PP's worst performance was their 27-14 win over New Boston (-1.6 swing - kinda crazy that it's the same opponent!) and DF's best being the 70-28 win over Elysian Fields (+53.1 swing).

Overall, the prediction is :

PP 37

DF 36

Pax we sure appreciate all your hard work running all theses numbers and all, but before you make your final game day prediction, you might want to watch this short video clip.

Eveidently some people think the slot T offense has weaknesses. ( just trying to provide all relevant information I can). Lol
 

 

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16 minutes ago, tigernationfan said:

you can download the app for 97.7 klake or star 96.9 .  to be honest i didnt make it to SFA so i had the 97.7 app on my phone and was tuned in lol ... hated i missed the game in person, it sounded like it was a nail biter 

I guess I'm gonna have to. For some reason I cannot get the dern thing to load when I click on it.  Come to think about it , how can I download the app if I can't get the station to load on my I pad.

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8 minutes ago, Newtonres7586 said:

I guess I'm gonna have to. For some reason I cannot get the dern thing to load when I click on it.  Come to think about it , how can I download the app if I can't get the station to load on my I pad.

smartphone app.. look in your app store. its free just search klake 97.7

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1 minute ago, tigernationfan said:

smartphone app.. look in your app store. its free just search klake 97.7

OK, thanks

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Just now, spanky said:

What do both teams have coming back next year?

a lot of talent coming up. about the same or more. Jv team this yr has been undefeated for 3 years and i think only losing 4 or 5 

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43 minutes ago, EastTexasSpeedKills said:

Pax we sure appreciate all your hard work running all theses numbers and all, but before you make your final game day prediction, you might want to watch this short video clip.

Eveidently some people think the slot T offense has weaknesses. ( just trying to provide all relevant information I can). Lol
 

 

So, what I get from this video is that if you run the spread offense, or any offense other than the wing-t, you will have better athletes.

The spread doesn't require offensive linemen that can move and backs that "perform their assignments equally well?" That makes no sense.  

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44 minutes ago, tigernationfan said:

smartphone app.. look in your app store. its free just search klake 97.7

Well, I'm back. Thanks for all your help Nation. I did just what you said and it worked. However, when I went to download the app, a message came up to tell me I needed IOS 12.1 to download. I went to bing to learn how to download IOS 12.1, the guy on the video said "you better think twice before downloading IOS 12.1". Once you have it you can't go back to your original blah, blah. That scared me off. So I'll take my chances on trying to find it somewhere. I think I can.

That's a long winded Thank You for your help. I'll find it somewhere. Lol

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34 minutes ago, AttaKid0596 said:

So, what I get from this video is that if you run the spread offense, or any offense other than the wing-t, you will have better athletes.

The spread doesn't require offensive linemen that can move and backs that "perform their assignments equally well?" That makes no sense.  

I wasn’t endorsing the video at all, just wanted to use it to make the point that everybody knows that with the slot t offense ( in most cases) ( Paul Pewitt does run it really well in my opinion), there is a lot of pressure to not make mistakes, penalties, and specially turnovers! As well as the importance of staying ahead of your opponents. For most teams that run this style of offense, they have a hard time winning it all.  For Pewitts defense, they have. ( just trying to pass the time till Friday). 

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23 minutes ago, Newtonres7586 said:

Well, I'm back. Thanks for all your help Nation. I did just what you said and it worked. However, when I went to download the app, a message came up to tell me I needed IOS 12.1 to download. I went to bing to learn how to download IOS 12.1, the guy on the video said "you better think twice before downloading IOS 12.1". Once you have it you can't go back to your original blah, blah. That scared me off. So I'll take my chances on trying to find it somewhere. I think I can.

That's a long winded Thank You for your help. I'll find it somewhere. Lol

12.1 isn’t bad.  They already fixed most of the bugs.  Go to Settings> General> Software updates

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Just now, MavGrad99 said:

12.1 isn’t bad.  They already fixed most of the bugs.  Go to Settings> General> Software updates

10/4

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1 hour ago, Newtonres7586 said:

Well, I'm back. Thanks for all your help Nation. I did just what you said and it worked. However, when I went to download the app, a message came up to tell me I needed IOS 12.1 to download. I went to bing to learn how to download IOS 12.1, the guy on the video said "you better think twice before downloading IOS 12.1". Once you have it you can't go back to your original blah, blah. That scared me off. So I'll take my chances on trying to find it somewhere. I think I can.

That's a long winded Thank You for your help. I'll find it somewhere. Lol

Ok buddy, the game is being carried locally here at STAR 96.9 and not KLAKE 97.7.  I want you to click on this live stream site for STAR 96.9 http://radio.securenetsystems.net/cwa/index.cfm?stationCallSign=KSCNFM and then click on the right hand arrow where it says ON NOW.  Let me know if it plays.

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3 hours ago, Pax said:

Ok, so I got some numbers on this one.  In the last matchup, I had Daingerfield in a tight, high-scoring game.  I think something like 33-32. 

Since district started and including all playoff games played (by DF, PP, and all of their opponents), DF is scoring 42.7 ppg against defenses that allow 27.7 ppg.  DF is allowing 18.3 ppg to teams that average 31.0 ppg.  So, DF's offense is taking what defenses normally allow and adding 15.0 points to that on average, and then allowing 12.7 fewer points than they normally score.  Total swing in DF's favor is +27.6.

PP is scoring 48.1 ppg against defenses that allow 28.9 ppg and allowing 21.8 to offenses that average 29.7 ppg, so PP's offense is adding 19.2 points to what defenses normally allow and then allowing 7.9 fewer points than teams average.  Total swing in PP's favor is +27.1

So, DF's swing is +27.6, and PP's average margin of victory is 26.3.  Once you apply DF's swing to that, you get DF favored by 1.3 points.  On the flip side, if you apply PP's swing of +27.1 to DF's average margin of victory (24.3), you get PP favored by 2.8.  Put all this together because none of this matters, and you get PP favored by .75 points.  Final prediction based on all games since district :

PP 37

DF 36

At this point, I like to filter the games in a few different ways.  Here are some of these scenarios, and the following is based on numbers from all games played - including pre-district, and the above stat I call "swing" is the metric I use for "good" or "bad" games :

Considering each teams 4 best swing games :  DF 37, PP 36

Each teams 4 worst swing games : PP 27, DF 10

DF's worst 4 vs PP's best 4 : PP 41, DF 12

PP's worst 4 vs DF's best 4 : DF 35, PP 22

In the playoffs, Pewitt is scoring a whopping 27.1 points MORE than the defense they are playing gives up on average.  The problem if you're Pewitt is that Daingerfield's defense is holding teams to a whopping 27.5 points FEWER than they normally score on average.  Pewitt is also holding teams to 13 fewer points than they average, and DF is scoring 9.2 points more than teams allow, so these numbers favor Pewitt a bit.  Considering just playoff games (and only their playoff opponents' district and playoff games), I have Pewitt in a 30-23 win.

For my "range of possibilities", according to what each team has demonstrated this year, if DF matches their single worst performance of the year from a scoring vs strength of opponent perspective while PP matches their best single performance, I get Pewitt in a 48-16 win.  FYI, I have DF's 26-12 win over New Boston as their single worst performance (-0.5 swing), and PP's 53-20 win over Bells as their single best (+43.9 swing).  On the flip side, PP's single worst performance vs DF's single best, I get DF in a 63-21 win.  PP's worst performance was their 27-14 win over New Boston (-1.6 swing - kinda crazy that it's the same opponent!) and DF's best being the 70-28 win over Elysian Fields (+53.1 swing).

Overall, the prediction is :

PP 37

DF 36

Great info Pax!

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