Final 4 with the 4 Teams Remaining

[BoyzNdaHood]

@lionpride08

I see where Franklin is dropping back down, I'm sure they will be a heavy weight next year in D2..... was this years team young

[Pax]

I've gone a little more in depth - and now have more games to draw from.  Again, the stat I call "swing" is a point value a team takes their opponent out of their average game - overall.  As it stands - including all games played by all teams and all games played by their opponents, here are the rankings for the 8 teams remaining in 3A D2 and their average swing :

1) Abernathy        +45.3

2) Canadian         +42.6

3) Gunter              +37.9

4) East Bernard   +36.7

5) Ganado            +26.8

6) Daingerfield    +26.3

7) Pewitt              +24.4

8.) Holliday          +22.6

It's worth noting that swing alone isn't the best predictor of a winner in a particular match up.  You have to take into account the average margin of victory of a team as well.  For example, Daingerfield has a higher swing number than Pewitt, but Daingerfield's average margin of victory is 19.2 points.  When you apply Pewitt's average swing of +24.4 to this, you would get a Pewitt win by 5.2 points.  Anyway - here are some different rankings of the elite eight of 3A D2.

By offensive swing only - this is how many more points the offense scores than the average defense they face allows :

1) Canadian          +25.0

2) Abernathy        +23.5

3) Gunter              +18.4

4) Ganado            +18.2

5) East Bernard   +16.8

6) Pewitt               +16.1

7) Daingerfield     +13.1

8.) Holliday             +6.9 

By defensive swing only - this is how many fewer points the defense allows than the average offense they face scores :

1) Abernathy         +21.8

2) East Bernard    +19.9

3) Gunter               +19.6

4) Canadian          +17.6

5) Holliday             +15.8

6) Daingerfield      +13.2

7) Ganado              +8.6

8.) Pewitt               +8.2

The total swing (the first ranking) is the combined offensive and defensive swing numbers for each team - in case nobody noticed.

This is the average margin of victory for each team :

1) Abernathy       40.4

2) Canadian        37.2

3) East Bernard  33.9

4) Gunter             28.9

5) Pewitt              23.6

6) Ganado           22.8

7) Daingerfield    19.2

8.) Holliday          18.8

This is the average margin of victory of each team's opponents :

1) Gunter             9.0

2) Daingerfield   7.0

3) Canadian        5.4

4) Abernathy       4.9

5) Ganado            4.0

6) Holliday           3.8

7) East Bernard  2.8

8.) Pewitt             0.8

Again, if you combine the average margin of victory of each team with their opponents' average margin of victory, you get the total swing (first ranking in this list).  For example, Gunter wins on average by 28.9 point a game against opponents that win by 9.0 per game, so Gunter swings these opponents out of their game by 37.9 points.

Score predictions based on these numbers for each of the regional final games :

Region I : Abernathy 24, Canadian 14

Region II : Gunter 28, Holliday 14

Region III : Pewitt 37, Daingerfield 36

Region IV : East Bernard 34, Ganado 24

[BoyzNdaHood]

5 minutes ago, Pax said:

I've gone a little more in depth - and now have more games to draw from.  Again, the stat I call "swing" is a point value a team takes their opponent out of their average game - overall.  As it stands - including all games played by all teams and all games played by their opponents, here are the rankings for the 8 teams remaining in 3A D2 and their average swing :

1) Abernathy        +45.3

2) Canadian         +42.6

3) Gunter              +37.9

4) East Bernard   +36.7

5) Ganado            +26.8

6) Daingerfield    +26.3

7) Pewitt              +24.4

8.) Holliday          +22.6

It's worth noting that swing alone isn't the best predictor of a winner in a particular match up.  You have to take into account the average margin of victory of a team as well.  For example, Daingerfield has a higher swing number than Pewitt, but Daingerfield's average margin of victory is 19.2 points.  When you apply Pewitt's average swing of +24.4 to this, you would get a Pewitt win by 5.2 points.  Anyway - here are some different rankings of the elite eight of 3A D2.

By offensive swing only - this is how many more points the offense scores than the average defense they face allows :

1) Canadian          +25.0

2) Abernathy        +23.5

3) Gunter              +18.4

4) Ganado            +18.2

5) East Bernard   +16.8

6) Pewitt               +16.1

7) Daingerfield     +13.1

8.) Holliday             +6.9 

By defensive swing only - this is how many fewer points the defense allows than the average offense they face scores :

1) Abernathy         +21.8

2) East Bernard    +19.9

3) Gunter               +19.6

4) Canadian          +17.6

5) Holliday             +15.8

6) Daingerfield      +13.2

7) Ganado              +8.6

8.) Pewitt               +8.2

The total swing (the first ranking) is the combined offensive and defensive swing numbers for each team - in case nobody noticed.

This is the average margin of victory for each team :

1) Abernathy       40.4

2) Canadian        37.2

3) East Bernard  33.9

4) Gunter             28.9

5) Pewitt              23.6

6) Ganado           22.8

7) Daingerfield    19.2

8.) Holliday          18.8

This is the average margin of victory of each team's opponents :

1) Gunter             9.0

2) Daingerfield   7.0

3) Canadian        5.4

4) Abernathy       4.9

5) Ganado            4.0

6) Holliday           3.8

7) East Bernard  2.8

8.) Pewitt             0.8

Again, if you combine the average margin of victory of each team with their opponents' average margin of victory, you get the total swing (first ranking in this list).  For example, Gunter wins on average by 28.9 point a game against opponents that win by 9.0 per game, so Gunter swings these opponents out of their game by 37.9 points.

Score predictions based on these numbers for each of the regional final games :

Region I : Abernathy 24, Canadian 14

Region II : Gunter 28, Holliday 14

Region III : Pewitt 37, Daingerfield 36

Region IV : East Bernard 34, Ganado 24

Good numbers pax, if Abernathy defeats Canadian I believe they win state, east bernard is also dominating as well.... should be some interesting weeks ahead 

[Pax]

39 minutes ago, JETT said:

Good numbers pax, if Abernathy defeats Canadian I believe they win state, east bernard is also dominating as well.... should be some interesting weeks ahead 

Yep, I agree.  I think the winner of Abernathy v Canadian will be the state champion.  I actually think Gunter v East Bernard would be a great game, but I don't see that happening unless Gunter upsets Canadian or Abernathy.  I mean, Gunter is my team, so I'd love for that to happen, but in all honesty, I don't think it will, but you never know.  Assuming Gunter won't be there, I hope Canadian wins it all.  It's very hard not to root for that program.

[LSUTIGERS]

On 12/2/2019 at 4:32 PM, wildtigers said:

Plus we are playing with house money, no one ever thought we would put this thing together and get even close to this far.  Now we have more then a bunch of speed athletic individuals, we seem to have become a team and a pretty darn good one.  I for one never thought it would happen so my hats off to everyone involved.  If they play as a team from here on out and bring their A game and stop making the mistakes with blown coverages and penalties they will not get beat. 

Didn’t y’all start the year ranked in the top 5?

[BoyzNdaHood]

35 minutes ago, LSUTIGERS said:

Didn’t y’all start the year ranked in the top 5?

[BoyzNdaHood]

57 minutes ago, Pax said:

Yep, I agree.  I think the winner of Abernathy v Canadian will be the state champion.  I actually think Gunter v East Bernard would be a great game, but I don't see that happening unless Gunter upsets Canadian or Abernathy.  I mean, Gunter is my team, so I'd love for that to happen, but in all honesty, I don't think it will, but you never know.  Assuming Gunter won't be there, I hope Canadian wins it all.  It's very hard not to root for that program.

Very true, competitive program that gives it all, no one deep down wants to draw them in all honestly.... its theirs to lose this year IMHO

[lionpride08]

20 hours ago, JETT said:

@lionpride08

I see where Franklin is dropping back down, I'm sure they will be a heavy weight next year in D2..... was this years team young

Yes started 7 sophmores on both sides of the ball and a freshman or two also got some playing time.... We will have some size and speed for awhile also prolly wont start alot both ways maybe 4 or 5

[BoyzNdaHood]

1 hour ago, lionpride08 said:

Yes started 7 sophmores on both sides of the ball and a freshman or two also got some playing time.... We will have some size and speed for awhile also prolly wont start alot both ways maybe 4 or 5

Should be a deep round team next year, brings back memories when yall played waskom back in '15 I remember that game like it was yesterday, to bad mr. AMIE  was on the opposite side of the field 

[lionpride08]

2 hours ago, JETT said:

Should be a deep round team next year, brings back memories when yall played waskom back in '15 I remember that game like it was yesterday, to bad mr. AMIE  was on the opposite side of the field 

He was a great player... We had 5 kids go d1 from that team... Turnovers killed us and we shouldn't have threw the ball... Waskom had no answer for us till we started to hurt ourselfs.... We should be in region 2 next year

[jimmyw]

1 hour ago, lionpride08 said:

He was a great player... We had 5 kids go d1 from that team... Turnovers killed us and we shouldn't have threw the ball... Waskom had no answer for us till we started to hurt ourselfs.... We should be in region 2 next year

Glad to see you back next year

[lionpride08]

5 minutes ago, jimmyw said:

Glad to see you back next year

Glad to be back but had we stayed in d1 with yoe and rockdale i would have been fine with that... We have the boys to play with the bigger schools... But ready to see how we fair against the gunter lexington Newton teams again

[BoyzNdaHood]

Just now, lionpride08 said:

Glad to be back but had we stayed in d1 with yoe and rockdale i would have been fine with that... We have the boys to play with the bigger schools... But ready to see how we fair against the gunter lexington Newton teams again

Pretty sure Franklin will be in the top 10 next year from the jump

[lionpride08]

9 minutes ago, JETT said:

Pretty sure Franklin will be in the top 10 next year from the jump

If not i would be shocked but if not thats okay... We should have a tough non district schedule.... Prolly play lorena again and maybe cameron... We might even go 0-4 against bigger schools and have everyone forget about us then sneak up on everyone

[BoyzNdaHood]

1 hour ago, lionpride08 said:

If not i would be shocked but if not thats okay... We should have a tough non district schedule.... Prolly play lorena again and maybe cameron... We might even go 0-4 against bigger schools and have everyone forget about us then sneak up on everyone

Lol, I hear ya

[wtxfootball]

Canadian over abernathy 35-31. I could be wrong, but I think the state championship game was just played. Heard canadian had some players injured tonight. Hope it's not difference making. 

[OLEMAN]

Paul Pewitt 45. Daingerfield 42

 

PP vs East Barnard in the semifinals

[BoyzNdaHood]

Canadian and Gunter 

PP and EB

Final four, what's your predictions 

 

[Eagleborn]

1 hour ago, JETT said:

Canadian and Gunter 

PP and EB

Final four, what's your predictions 

 

Canadian

EB

[Lion54]

23 minutes ago, Eagleborn said:

Canadian

EB

Yea what EB said

[BoyzNdaHood]

56 minutes ago, Nick2011 said:

EB/Canadian with EB winning it all

I have Canadian winning it all,  either way should be some good games 

[BoyzNdaHood]

1 hour ago, Eagleborn said:

Canadian

EB

Looks right to me 

[OLEMAN]

On 12/4/2019 at 8:57 PM, Pax said:

I've gone a little more in depth - and now have more games to draw from.  Again, the stat I call "swing" is a point value a team takes their opponent out of their average game - overall.  As it stands - including all games played by all teams and all games played by their opponents, here are the rankings for the 8 teams remaining in 3A D2 and their average swing :

1) Abernathy        +45.3

2) Canadian         +42.6

3) Gunter              +37.9

4) East Bernard   +36.7

5) Ganado            +26.8

6) Daingerfield    +26.3

7) Pewitt              +24.4

8.) Holliday          +22.6

It's worth noting that swing alone isn't the best predictor of a winner in a particular match up.  You have to take into account the average margin of victory of a team as well.  For example, Daingerfield has a higher swing number than Pewitt, but Daingerfield's average margin of victory is 19.2 points.  When you apply Pewitt's average swing of +24.4 to this, you would get a Pewitt win by 5.2 points.  Anyway - here are some different rankings of the elite eight of 3A D2.

By offensive swing only - this is how many more points the offense scores than the average defense they face allows :

1) Canadian          +25.0

2) Abernathy        +23.5

3) Gunter              +18.4

4) Ganado            +18.2

5) East Bernard   +16.8

6) Pewitt               +16.1

7) Daingerfield     +13.1

8.) Holliday             +6.9 

By defensive swing only - this is how many fewer points the defense allows than the average offense they face scores :

1) Abernathy         +21.8

2) East Bernard    +19.9

3) Gunter               +19.6

4) Canadian          +17.6

5) Holliday             +15.8

6) Daingerfield      +13.2

7) Ganado              +8.6

8.) Pewitt               +8.2

The total swing (the first ranking) is the combined offensive and defensive swing numbers for each team - in case nobody noticed.

This is the average margin of victory for each team :

1) Abernathy       40.4

2) Canadian        37.2

3) East Bernard  33.9

4) Gunter             28.9

5) Pewitt              23.6

6) Ganado           22.8

7) Daingerfield    19.2

8.) Holliday          18.8

This is the average margin of victory of each team's opponents :

1) Gunter             9.0

2) Daingerfield   7.0

3) Canadian        5.4

4) Abernathy       4.9

5) Ganado            4.0

6) Holliday           3.8

7) East Bernard  2.8

8.) Pewitt             0.8

Again, if you combine the average margin of victory of each team with their opponents' average margin of victory, you get the total swing (first ranking in this list).  For example, Gunter wins on average by 28.9 point a game against opponents that win by 9.0 per game, so Gunter swings these opponents out of their game by 37.9 points.

Score predictions based on these numbers for each of the regional final games :

Region I : Abernathy 24, Canadian 14

Region II : Gunter 28, Holliday 14

Region III : Pewitt 37, Daingerfield 36

Region IV : East Bernard 34, Ganado 24

All this is great but you are using numbers that basically are derived from stats on games one or lost I think. Region 1 and 4 are dominated historically by a few big dogs especially at the lower classifications.  Regions 2 and 3 generally just beat the heel out of each other.  How does that show up in this analysis.  By the way, great job. 

[jimmyw]

And now down to four.

[BoyzNdaHood]

48 minutes ago, Nick2011 said:

I would like to see PP go to state and win it but EB brings back everyone from a team that went toe to toe with that loaded Newton team last year. EB has been my favorite to win all year but Canadian won’t be a pushover. I wouldn’t look past Gunter either. They seem to be playing some good football right now. 

Yep few interesting games this week