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Gunter vs Canadian 3A D-2 showdown


wingtveer

State semi-finals  

46 members have voted

  1. 1. Who Ya Got?


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  • Poll closed on 12/14/2019 at 01:30 AM

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1 hour ago, Newtonres7586 said:

That information made me go look at Canadians scoring this year. They are sitting at a whopping 701 for and 214 against. So, it doesn't look like the extra int's has bothered that defense much. When Canadian played Newton last year I saw a scrappy group of kids that will take you to the woodshed, and did against the 🦅 I expect that same culture is present in this group as well. Besides all that I think your coach is a fine man. He showed great respect for Coach Johnston after the State game. I just don't see them losing this year. A State Championship would be well deserved, and they have the team to do it.

Thanks. I like to laugh when I hear that spread teams aren’t physical. I think we do just fine in that department. We returned the whole DLine, Rover and Bandit, replaced one linebacker with equal talent, and improved at the other. Should be fun. The points against margin is funny as well. The starters have only given up around 130 points.

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5 minutes ago, Airitout1 said:

Thanks. I like to laugh when I hear that spread teams aren’t physical. I think we do just fine in that department. We returned the whole DLine, Rover and Bandit, replaced one linebacker with equal talent, and improved at the other. Should be fun. The points against margin is funny as well. The starters have only given up around 130 points.

Thanks Airitout1. This post is why I love SDC. You gave us insight into your team. Information we could not get anywhere else.

 

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55 minutes ago, wingtveer said:

Well unfortunately we still have to play the game. I think Gunter has a good chance. If they lose, I’ll still be a Gunter fan. 

As it should be. I'm sick to the teeth that Newton lost so early. But, I'm still a rabid fan, and always will be. There is just too much history as a fan and supporter with this team for me not to be.

May  the best team win. 

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On 12/8/2019 at 7:07 AM, Nick2011 said:

This will be a good game. I feel like Gunter will keep it close but Canadian will pull out the win late in the 4th quarter. I would not be surprised to see Gunter win though. 

Gunter is a scrappy well disciplined team. No doubt about it.. They play hard, and play to win. This year though, Canadian is in the same category that the 2017 Newton Eagle team was in. They have excellence at every position. I know Canadian has had many good teams in the past at several levels, I have a feeling this group is in a catagory all by themselves. Now somebody with a better grasp of Canadian history may disagree but they'll have to  convince me.

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3 minutes ago, Newtonres7586 said:

Gunter is a scrappy well disciplined team. No doubt about it.. They play hard, and play to win. This year though, Canadian is in the same category that the 2017 Newton Eagle team was in. They have excellence at every position. I know Canadian has had many good teams in the past at several levels, I have a feeling this group is in a catagory all by themselves. Now somebody with a better grasp of Canadian history may disagree but they'll have to  convince me.

2015 team that beat Refugio was favored by computers and DCTF to have won every championship from 4a d1 down. DCTF did a video picking them over 1983 DField as best small school team of all time. This team would not beat them, but is the closest we have had to them. But when talking about 15-18 year old kids, anything can happen.

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13 minutes ago, GoBigBlue said:

That’s hilarious picking them over the 83 Daingerfield Tigers. That defense allowed one touchdown. One!  Then they blocked the extra point. 

That one touchdown was a pick 6 as well wasn't it?  The defense literally didn't give up anything.  When the offense gave up the touchdown, they blocked the extra point.  Literally nothing given up for the entire year - - from what I've heard anyway.

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Overall, Gunter is scoring 38.6 points per game against defenses that allow 20.4 ppg for an offensive swing of +18.2.  Gunter is also holding teams that average 30.3 ppg to just 10.4, for a defensive swing of +19.9.  Overall swing is +38.0.

Canadian is scoring 50.1 a game against defenses that allow 24.9 (+25.2 offensive swing) and allowing 15.3 a game to teams that average 32.9 ppg (+17.6 defensive swing).  Overall swing for Canadian is +42.7.

Canadian's average margin of victory is 34.8 points.  If you apply Gunter's average swing of +38.0 to this, you get Gunter favored by 3.2 points, and the score prediction is Gunter 33, Canadian 30.  On the flip side, Gunter's average margin of victory is 28.1 points and if you apply Canadian's +42.7 swing to that, you get Canadian favored by 14.6 and a 36-21 prediction in Canadian's favor.  The middle ground prediction is Canadian 33, Gunter 27. 

Here are some other ways I've filtered the games :

Each team's 4 best swing games (Gunter is +53.7 and Canadian is +67.0 in these games), I get Canadian with a 39-32 win.

Each team's 4 worst swing games (Gunter at +23.8, Canadian at +25.8), I get Canadian in a 35-17 win.

Gunter's 4 worst against Canadian's 4 best, Canadian wins 50-13.

Gunter's best vs Canadian's worst, Gunter wins 36-25.

In the playoffs, Gunter's swing is +43.9 while Canadian's is +57.2.  Using only playoff numbers, I get Canadian 39, Gunter 33.

Filtering only by games against opponents who average 35 or more points per game, among these - Canadian's opponents average 45.2 ppg and they hold these teams to 21.7 points (+23.5 defensive swing).  Among Gunter opponents that score 35 or more, these opponents average 41.8 ppg and Gunter holds them to 17.2 ppg (+24.7 defensive swing).  Just to compare how each team does against actual solid offenses, and they both impress.

Against opponents who hold teams to 15 or fewer points per game,  Canadian has only played 3 and Gunter only 4 with such defenses, but Gunter opponents who fit this criteria average 11.4 points allowed per game, and Gunter scored 27.3 ppg against these opponents (+15.9 offensive swing).  Canadian's opponents that fit give up 11.1 ppg and Canadian is still putting up 46.3 ppg against these opponents (+35.3 offensive swing).  So against teams with solid defenses, Canadian so far has been considerably stronger than Gunter here. 

I hope Gunter can pull this one off, but this will probably be their toughest challenge this season.  Canadian the favorite here though.  I hope I am proven wrong on this one.

 

Canadian 33

Gunter 27

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5 minutes ago, Pax said:

Overall, Gunter is scoring 38.6 points per game against defenses that allow 20.4 ppg for an offensive swing of +18.2.  Gunter is also holding teams that average 30.3 ppg to just 10.4, for a defensive swing of +19.9.  Overall swing is +38.0.

Canadian is scoring 50.1 a game against defenses that allow 24.9 (+25.2 offensive swing) and allowing 15.3 a game to teams that average 32.9 ppg (+17.6 defensive swing).  Overall swing for Canadian is +42.7.

Canadian's average margin of victory is 34.8 points.  If you apply Gunter's average swing of +38.0 to this, you get Gunter favored by 3.2 points, and the score prediction is Gunter 33, Canadian 30.  On the flip side, Gunter's average margin of victory is 28.1 points and if you apply Canadian's +42.7 swing to that, you get Canadian favored by 14.6 and a 36-21 prediction in Canadian's favor.  The middle ground prediction is Canadian 33, Gunter 27. 

Here are some other ways I've filtered the games :

Each team's 4 best swing games (Gunter is +53.7 and Canadian is +67.0 in these games), I get Canadian with a 39-32 win.

Each team's 4 worst swing games (Gunter at +23.8, Canadian at +25.8), I get Canadian in a 35-17 win.

Gunter's 4 worst against Canadian's 4 best, Canadian wins 50-13.

Gunter's best vs Canadian's worst, Gunter wins 36-25.

In the playoffs, Gunter's swing is +43.9 while Canadian's is +57.2.  Using only playoff numbers, I get Canadian 39, Gunter 33.

Filtering only by games against opponents who average 35 or more points per game, among these - Canadian's opponents average 45.2 ppg and they hold these teams to 21.7 points (+23.5 defensive swing).  Among Gunter opponents that score 35 or more, these opponents average 41.8 ppg and Gunter holds them to 17.2 ppg (+24.7 defensive swing).  Just to compare how each team does against actual solid offenses, and they both impress.

Against opponents who hold teams to 15 or fewer points per game,  Canadian has only played 3 and Gunter only 4 with such defenses, but Gunter opponents who fit this criteria average 11.4 points allowed per game, and Gunter scored 27.3 ppg against these opponents (+15.9 offensive swing).  Canadian's opponents that fit give up 11.1 ppg and Canadian is still putting up 46.3 ppg against these opponents (+35.3 offensive swing).  So against teams with solid defenses, Canadian so far has been considerably stronger than Gunter here. 

I hope Gunter can pull this one off, but this will probably be their toughest challenge this season.  Canadian the favorite here though.  I hope I am proven wrong on this one.

 

Canadian 33

Gunter 27

From what I've read Canadian has suffered some injuries that could affect their play, so I'll give the edge to Gunter. Although, this is where you separate the men from the boys. 

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2 minutes ago, Purpleforever said:

From what I've read Canadian has suffered some injuries that could affect their play, so I'll give the edge to Gunter. Although, this is where you separate the men from the boys. 

I've heard that, but I've also heard they don't have any significant injuries.  I try not to listen to any of that - it wouldn't change my prediction because it's based on hard numbers anyway.  I hope both teams are as healthy as possible.  I doubt either team would ever use injuries as an excuse anyway.

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1 hour ago, GoBigBlue said:

That’s hilarious picking them over the 83 Daingerfield Tigers. That defense allowed one touchdown. One!  Then they blocked the extra point. 

I’m not saying I do/did! Just relaying what they said. I do not think you can compare teams 2-3 years apart, much less generations. It’s a waste of time that just gets people #### off

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1 hour ago, Pax said:

I've heard that, but I've also heard they don't have any significant injuries.  I try not to listen to any of that - it wouldn't change my prediction because it's based on hard numbers anyway.  I hope both teams are as healthy as possible.  I doubt either team would ever use injuries as an excuse anyway.

Not saying anybody would use that as an excuse, just injuries affect the game.

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4 hours ago, Airitout1 said:

2015 team that beat Refugio was favored by computers and DCTF to have won every championship from 4a d1 down. DCTF did a video picking them over 1983 DField as best small school team of all time. This team would not beat them, but is the closest we have had to them. But when talking about 15-18 year old kids, anything can happen.

I'll take your word for that, since you are obviously plugged in to them more than I.  That history is incredible though.

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On 12/7/2019 at 9:20 PM, wtxfootball said:

I like canadian by 1-2 scores. I have no idea though. I shamefully wrote gunter off of state caliber when they got easily beat by pottsboro. Didnt know pottsboro would be one of the best. Gunter and canadian seem to be peaking at the right time. 

Easy?  Ask Potts fans if they thought it was easy.

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