ANTI Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 21 minutes ago, Mavchamp said: Odd how consistent it is. Lgv and Lufkin seem to be the only ones not experiencing that. JT seems up and down from year to year. Lee... who knows. I’ve heard 2500. Heard 2100. Huge drop if true. 2018 fall numbers on those 6A D2/5A D1 bubble teams: Longview 2261 Tyler Lee 2240 Lufkin 2132 John Tyler 2097 2190 was recent 6A cutoff. That was up from 40 the alignment before (2150 in 2016). Hard to say what pre split 6A will do to that number. Think LP and JT remain 5A D1. LV and Lee will be on the bubble this go around. Both are growing (LV was at 2242 Fall 2017, Lee was at 2222 Fall 2017) but not nearly as fast as the rest of the state is. Lee and LV are starring 5A D1 in the eyes 2022 for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mavchamp Posted August 25, 2019 Author Share Posted August 25, 2019 Family reunion could be brewing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ANTI Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 Looking at 5A D2 2018 tea fall numbers Chapel Hill 1013 Kilgore 1109 Lindale 1144 Longview Pine Tree 1207 Jax 1267 Sulphur Springs 1270 Marshall 1413 Whitehouse 1426 Greenville 1429 Hallsville 1464 Mt Pleasant 1497 Nacogodoches 1683 1150 was recent 5A cutoff. It was 1100 before that in 2016. So, Jax, Lindale and even PT are worth monitoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ANTI Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, Mavchamp said: Family reunion could be brewing. Yea, wonder if UIL would still send LP south with LV, Lee and JT all 5A D1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mavchamp Posted August 25, 2019 Author Share Posted August 25, 2019 LP could send a few to Nac so they could move up. Solidify an East Texas D1 district. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pack007 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 We’re still going south regardless. Quick said this month after looking at all the numbers, we should be 5A again. I expect LV and Lee to be 6A again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboFan07 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Pack007 said: We’re still going south regardless. Quick said this month after looking at all the numbers, we should be 5A again. Agree. I think the days of Lufkin coming North to the East Texas district are done with tbh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cujoforlife Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 The only way Lufkin would come back to east Texas District if there were six teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mavchamp Posted August 25, 2019 Author Share Posted August 25, 2019 Lgv, Lee, LP, JT, Nac, TxH Hallsville in about 6 years make it happen. Looks fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTFAN99 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 4 hours ago, Mavchamp said: Yeah. I had heard they were trending downward. Same thing Marshall and Nac experienced almost 20 years ago. Nac was 1900ish. Ne ow 1700ish. Marshall was 1700ish now 1500ish. Odd how consistent it is. Lgv and Lufkin seem to be the only ones not experiencing that. JT seems up and down from year to year. Lee... who knows. I’ve heard 2500. Heard 2100. Huge drop if true. Landscape is changing. Lufkin lost like 250-300 students to Pineywoods Academy. They used to be closer to 2300-2400 students. JT/Lee enrollment drop was due to the Early College High school opening. I doubt Lee or Longview will drop this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTFAN99 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, Mavchamp said: Lgv, Lee, LP, JT, Nac, TxH Hallsville in about 6 years make it happen. Looks fun. it would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pack007 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 31 minutes ago, Mavchamp said: Lgv, Lee, LP, JT, Nac, TxH Hallsville in about 6 years make it happen. Looks fun. Never going to happen imo. At least i don’t see it. More schools in the woodlands/conroe area and Humble area will probably open up in that time frame. I honestly think teams like Jacksonville, Nac and maybe even Livingston or Lindale too will have to grow to 5A D1 for us to stay East. It’s not going to be that district though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pack007 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 32 minutes ago, JTFAN99 said: it would be nice. Better if Marshall or Huntsville could replace Hallsville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pack007 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 1 hour ago, cujoforlife said: The only way Lufkin would come back to east Texas District if there were six teams. Only if Nac and Maybe Jacksonville was one of those teams. I really think Nac would be the only reason we stayed East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackAttack Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 Lufkin will never go North again or maybe ever be 6A again, unless the UIL approve a 7A classification or have 6A divided into Div I and Div II districts like all other classifications have right now. If Longview is growing and if the current cut off moves 40 again to 2230 this next realignment and 40 again to 2270 in the following realignment, then Longview will stay 6A. If they are growing percentage wise each year as you say . You have to understand if Longview High grows at more than 40 students per realignment (2 years) your always going to stay ahead of the curve for 6A. JT and Lee fight the private school battle for numbers and the fact that East Texas in general is aging out . More of our younger folks head for the metro areas after graduating and raise their families, instead of coming back to East Texas. Highland Park seems to always manage to stoke the cutoff numbers between 5A and 6A. How they beat the UIL system to stay out of 6A every realignment is beyond my comprehension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ANTI Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 29 minutes ago, JTFAN99 said: Lufkin lost like 250-300 students to Pineywoods Academy. Eh, They don't even have that many enrolled total but they took a few. I think Hudson is a big culprit, mixed with the fact that Lufkin as a whole really isn't growing that much if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ANTI Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, PackAttack said: If Longview is growing and if the current cut off moves 40 again to 2230 this next realignment and 40 again to 2270 in the following realignment, then Longview will stay 6A. If they are growing percentage wise each year as you say . You have to understand if Longview High grows at more than 40 students per realignment (2 years) your always going to stay ahead of the curve for 6A. JT and Lee fight the private school battle for numbers and the fact that East Texas in general is aging out . We'll see. But I think Lee and Longview get swallowed by the states growth rate in 2022 for sure. I've always thought it was remarkable how LV has been able to not only maintain enrollment, but grow by a few students almost every year. To me, they have as many outside forces pulling on them as anyone. Longview city limits is cut up into 4 ISD's + several privates and charters as well. Thank goodness we built Ned E down in Lakeport, otherwise the southern portion of the district would also still be playing tugowar with Tatum. Lakeport/Easton is a pretty talent rich area. I will say the privates and charters mostly effect PT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackAttack Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 1 hour ago, JTFAN99 said: Lufkin lost like 250-300 students to Pineywoods Academy. They used to be closer to 2300-2400 students. JT/Lee enrollment drop was due to the Early College High school opening. I doubt Lee or Longview will drop this go around. Lufkin may have lost that many kids divided up over maybe the last 4 or 5 years but not all in one year. Pineywoods has an enrollment for grades 7-12 this year of about 350 students total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ANTI Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, PackAttack said: Lufkin may have lost that many kids divided up over maybe the last 4 or 5 years but not all in one year. Pineywoods has an enrollment for grades 7-12 this year of about 350 students total. Yeah, they have 227 9-12. Also saw where they have an Early Grad HS within it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTFAN99 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 46 minutes ago, ANTI said: Eh, They don't even have that many enrolled total but they took a few. I think Hudson is a big culprit, mixed with the fact that Lufkin as a whole really isn't growing that much if at all. Actually Pineywoods Academy HS has 251 students according to TEA enrollment reports. Also, according to the TEA Transfer report, Lufkin ISD is lost 752 students to the Pineywoods Academy charter district (K-12). There is only about 1000 kids in the entire Pineywoods system. https://rptsvr1.tea.texas.gov/adhocrpt/Standard_Reports/Transfer_Reports/district_transfer_report.html I don't doubt some kids are going to Hudson, but Hudson has always been there. According to TEA AEIS reports, In 2009-2010, Pineywoods started enrolling High School students. Lufkin HS had 2283, now its down to 2132. I would almost guarantee Pineywoods has something to do with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTFAN99 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 15 minutes ago, PackAttack said: Lufkin may have lost that many kids divided up over maybe the last 4 or 5 years but not all in one year. Pineywoods has an enrollment for grades 7-12 this year of about 350 students total. I would bet if Pineywoods wasn't open, Lufkin would have at least 2300 students. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cujoforlife Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Pack007 said: Only if Nac and Maybe Jacksonville was one of those teams. I really think Nac would be the only reason we stayed East. True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mavchamp Posted August 25, 2019 Author Share Posted August 25, 2019 Nac is at least a possibility. Jax isn't.... they are getting dangerously close to 4A Div I. Now.... MP is a possibility. No one has said much about the fact that MP has grown from 1100 to over 1500. If they continue that trend..... could be a D1 candidate in 5-6 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTFAN99 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 Lets be honest, the only city in East Texas with significant growth over the past 20 yrs is Tyler and its surrounding area. (Longview is a distant second). The problem in Tyler is that the charter and privates are taking away all the growth. In the Longview area, Hallsville is the only school that seems to be growing the most. Lee is probably the only school in East Texas that has the best shot of staying 6a in the long run (next 20 yrs) because of the growth in South Tyler. Longview may have a shot, but I'm not as confident. Eventually, east texas schools will find ourselves back together because everyone is leaving to DFW/Houston/Austin/San Antonio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTFAN99 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, Mavchamp said: Nac is at least a possibility. Jax isn't.... they are getting dangerously close to 4A Div I. Now.... MP is a possibility. No one has said much about the fact that MP has grown from 1100 to over 1500. If they continue that trend..... could be a D1 candidate in 5-6 years. What about Whitehouse? Lots of growth in south Tyler, and those areas are zoned for Whitehouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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