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'The Economy Saved Trump'


BarryLaverty

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Think there are definitely some on here who feel that and have said it, while others are clinging to him with both hands for 'cultural' reasons. 

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/the-economy-saved-trump-from-impeachment-191950747.html

 

Yahoo Finance

The economy saved Trump from impeachment

Rick Newman
Rick NewmanSenior Columnist
Yahoo Finance
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
What data is predicting for the 2020 election
 
 
 

He has certain skills, but President Trump also benefits from lucky timing. And his impeachment trial fell at an ideal time on the economic calendar.

The Senate will almost certainly acquit Trump this week—ending the impeachment drama—as the unemployment rate is at a 50-year low and the stock market is close to record highs. The economy itself is (probably) in the late stages of the longest business-cycle expansion on record. Consumers feel upbeat and don’t have to worry about what is normally their No. 1 concern: jobs and the economy.

Trump’s party-line acquittal will occur because his approval rating, which is in the low 40s among all voters, is nearly 90% in the Republican party. Roughly the same portion of Republicans say they approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, according to Morning Consult. Only 21% of Democrats and 47% of Independents feel the same way. So views on the economy essentially unify Republicans in their support of Trump.

It’s possible some Republican senators will vote to acquit Trump because they genuinely believe his transgressions regarding Ukraine were not impeachable. Okay, done laughing? Now for reality: Senate Republicans can’t buck Trump because he’s notoriously vindictive and would try to end their political careers. And his near-unanimous support in the Republican party might allow him to do it.

Trump’s approval in the party would be lower—perhaps far lower—if the economy were weaker or a recession hit. Analysis of Trump voters in surveys such as the Democracy Fund’s Voter Study Group shows that some Trump supporters would truly back him no matter what, for cultural reasons not pertaining to the economy. But maybe two-fifths of Trump’s support comes from voters who feel things are fine, so why risk messing anything up? Some of those voters don’t even like Trump, but they feel his tax cuts and deregulatory efforts have been an economic boon.

The economy under Nixon, Clinton

Richard Nixon didn’t have the fortune of a solid economy behind him when he resigned in August 1974. The economy back then had actually entered a recession, with GDP falling from a 7.6% annual growth rate at the start of 1973 to -0.6% in the third quarter of 1974. The unemployment rate during the same period rose from 4.9% to 5.5%, and was on its way to getting much worse. Inflation had crested 10%. Consumers were jittery, for good reason.

Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, walks to a Republican luncheon outside the Senate chamber prior to the start of the impeachment trial of President Donald Trump at the U.S. Capitol Friday Jan 31, 2020, in Washington, as Senators continue the impeachment trial for President Donald Trump. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)
Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, walks to a Republican luncheon outside the Senate chamber prior to the start of the impeachment trial of President Donald Trump at the U.S. Capitol Friday Jan 31, 2020, in Washington, as Senators continue the impeachment trial for President Donald Trump. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)

Nixon’s approval rating plummeted as the economy weakened. By the time he left office, it had plunged from a high of 67% to a dismal 24%, the lowest of his presidency. The unfolding Watergate scandal undoubtedly helped knock Nixon down, but, as with Trump, voters had mixed views on the matter. Polls by Gallup, Harris and others showed that nearly half of voters felt the Watergate scandal was overblown. Nixon’s overall approval rating was far lower than the portion of voters who felt he should resign, largely because the economy was turning lousy.

Nixon resisted calls to resign and only quit when political allies told him he had lost Republican support on Capitol Hill, and the Senate would likely convict him. With a historically low approval rating, that’s not surprising. Republicans could buck Nixon without risking much blowback from the president’s dwindling base of support.

When Bill Clinton faced an impeachment vote in 1999, the economy was much more like Trump’s than Nixon’s. An economic boom was in its eighth year. Real GDP growth was a robust 4.8%. The unemployment rate was 4.4% and there was no inflation to speak of. Clinton’s approval rating had dipped during the impeachment process, but was still around 60% when the Senate voted to acquit him in February 1999.

There were intangibles in each impeachment scenario, and the economy was hardly the only factor in each outcome. Yet the two presidents to face impeachment with a growing economy and low unemployment survived, while the one president facing impeachment during a recession did not.

The Trump economy, while solid, is not bulletproof, and it may weaken rather than strengthen leading up to the November election. Forecasting firm Oxford Economics predicts Trump will win reelection, based on past results when economic conditions were similar. But the firm says Trump’s victory margin looks “razor thin,” and could evaporate if opposition turnout is higher than average. Impeachment isn’t the only way to lose office.

Rick Newman is the author of four books, including “Rebounders: How Winners Pivot from Setback to Success.” Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman. Confidential tip line: [email protected]. Encrypted communication available. Click here to get Rick’s stories by email.

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9 hours ago, BarryLaverty said:
Think there are definitely some on here who feel that and have said it, while others are clinging to him with both hands for 'cultural' reasons. 

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/the-economy-saved-trump-from-impeachment-191950747.html

 

Yahoo Finance

The economy saved Trump from impeachment

Rick Newman
Rick NewmanSenior Columnist
Yahoo Finance
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
What data is predicting for the 2020 election
 
 
 

He has certain skills, but President Trump also benefits from lucky timing. And his impeachment trial fell at an ideal time on the economic calendar.

The Senate will almost certainly acquit Trump this week—ending the impeachment drama—as the unemployment rate is at a 50-year low and the stock market is close to record highs. The economy itself is (probably) in the late stages of the longest business-cycle expansion on record. Consumers feel upbeat and don’t have to worry about what is normally their No. 1 concern: jobs and the economy.

Trump’s party-line acquittal will occur because his approval rating, which is in the low 40s among all voters, is nearly 90% in the Republican party. Roughly the same portion of Republicans say they approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, according to Morning Consult. Only 21% of Democrats and 47% of Independents feel the same way. So views on the economy essentially unify Republicans in their support of Trump.

It’s possible some Republican senators will vote to acquit Trump because they genuinely believe his transgressions regarding Ukraine were not impeachable. Okay, done laughing? Now for reality: Senate Republicans can’t buck Trump because he’s notoriously vindictive and would try to end their political careers. And his near-unanimous support in the Republican party might allow him to do it.

Trump’s approval in the party would be lower—perhaps far lower—if the economy were weaker or a recession hit. Analysis of Trump voters in surveys such as the Democracy Fund’s Voter Study Group shows that some Trump supporters would truly back him no matter what, for cultural reasons not pertaining to the economy. But maybe two-fifths of Trump’s support comes from voters who feel things are fine, so why risk messing anything up? Some of those voters don’t even like Trump, but they feel his tax cuts and deregulatory efforts have been an economic boon.

The economy under Nixon, Clinton

Richard Nixon didn’t have the fortune of a solid economy behind him when he resigned in August 1974. The economy back then had actually entered a recession, with GDP falling from a 7.6% annual growth rate at the start of 1973 to -0.6% in the third quarter of 1974. The unemployment rate during the same period rose from 4.9% to 5.5%, and was on its way to getting much worse. Inflation had crested 10%. Consumers were jittery, for good reason.

Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, walks to a Republican luncheon outside the Senate chamber prior to the start of the impeachment trial of President Donald Trump at the U.S. Capitol Friday Jan 31, 2020, in Washington, as Senators continue the impeachment trial for President Donald Trump. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)
Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, walks to a Republican luncheon outside the Senate chamber prior to the start of the impeachment trial of President Donald Trump at the U.S. Capitol Friday Jan 31, 2020, in Washington, as Senators continue the impeachment trial for President Donald Trump. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)

Nixon’s approval rating plummeted as the economy weakened. By the time he left office, it had plunged from a high of 67% to a dismal 24%, the lowest of his presidency. The unfolding Watergate scandal undoubtedly helped knock Nixon down, but, as with Trump, voters had mixed views on the matter. Polls by Gallup, Harris and others showed that nearly half of voters felt the Watergate scandal was overblown. Nixon’s overall approval rating was far lower than the portion of voters who felt he should resign, largely because the economy was turning lousy.

Nixon resisted calls to resign and only quit when political allies told him he had lost Republican support on Capitol Hill, and the Senate would likely convict him. With a historically low approval rating, that’s not surprising. Republicans could buck Nixon without risking much blowback from the president’s dwindling base of support.

When Bill Clinton faced an impeachment vote in 1999, the economy was much more like Trump’s than Nixon’s. An economic boom was in its eighth year. Real GDP growth was a robust 4.8%. The unemployment rate was 4.4% and there was no inflation to speak of. Clinton’s approval rating had dipped during the impeachment process, but was still around 60% when the Senate voted to acquit him in February 1999.

There were intangibles in each impeachment scenario, and the economy was hardly the only factor in each outcome. Yet the two presidents to face impeachment with a growing economy and low unemployment survived, while the one president facing impeachment during a recession did not.

The Trump economy, while solid, is not bulletproof, and it may weaken rather than strengthen leading up to the November election. Forecasting firm Oxford Economics predicts Trump will win reelection, based on past results when economic conditions were similar. But the firm says Trump’s victory margin looks “razor thin,” and could evaporate if opposition turnout is higher than average. Impeachment isn’t the only way to lose office.

Rick Newman is the author of four books, including “Rebounders: How Winners Pivot from Setback to Success.” Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman. Confidential tip line: [email protected]. Encrypted communication available. Click here to get Rick’s stories by email.

For months you've been saying his economy was on the brink of collapse along with your other "experts".  Today on the economic report I heard the two old fallacies or superstitions of economics of "As January goes the year goes"  the market rebounded today after the coronavirus scare has gone.  Then I heard the old fable of the AFL/AFC Super Bowl indicator that has proven time and time again to be a myth.  I can easily predict that if a Democrat does win the Presidency this year the market will fall for their entire tenure in office.  

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3 hours ago, DAWG91 said:

Go easy on him man their fake reality they've created for themselves is crumbling all around them and they're all out of sorts by this point.

This is America, we don't kowtow to any other Nation.  We are not subservient.  Our Nation is made up of the grand melting pot of all people, and with all things the cream rises to the top.  I heard one analysis that President Trump was paying homage to the black community tonight by naming Great Americans who lived before us.  How is it homage when it is true ?  That's simply showing respect to Americans who have done a lot for all of U.S..  During the Obama Administration Americans were told how evil we've been, when that is not the case.  We fight for Justice, Truth, and the American way as Superman once said until he became a  world citizen.  

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13 minutes ago, DaveTV1 said:

This is America, we don't kowtow to any other Nation.  We are not subservient.  Our Nation is made up of the grand melting pot of all people, and with all things the cream rises to the top.  I heard one analysis that President Trump was paying homage to the black community tonight by naming Great Americans who lived before us.  How is it homage when it is true ?  That's simply showing respect to Americans who have done a lot for all of U.S..  During the Obama Administration Americans were told how evil we've been, when that is not the case.  We fight for Justice, Truth, and the American way as Superman once said until he became a  world citizen.  

Sounded desperate to me, as a African American myself trump offers nothing for me but racism... I dont care what he says he ain't got my vote

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2 minutes ago, JETT said:

Sounded desperate to me, as a African American myself trump offers nothing for me but racism... I dont care what he says he ain't got my vote

Sounded like literally the worst white supremacist ever to me.  Terrible job of representing white power ideology.  As for him not getting your vote,  that's cool,  there will be more than enough that will vote for him to cover for you.

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1 minute ago, DAWG91 said:

Sounded like literally the worst white supremacist ever to me.  Terrible job of representing white power ideology.  As for him not getting your vote,  that's cool,  there will be more than enough that will vote for him to cover for you.

You sound so sure, he sounds so desperate to reach out to the ones leaving his party

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3 minutes ago, JETT said:

Sounded desperate to me, as a African American myself trump offers nothing for me but racism... I dont care what he says he ain't got my vote

It sounded to me like he wants U.S. to have American power.  I can live with that.  As DAWG91 stated above, if he's racist, I haven't heard it.  Then again I'm for all Americans regardless of color.  I see that with President Trump.  I never thought he was racist.  He wants all Americans to succeed.  So go vote for those that desire to destroy your business, and bring you down.  You only have yourself to blame.  

 

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2 minutes ago, DaveTV1 said:

It sounded to me like he wants U.S. to have American power.  I can live with that.  As DAWG91 stated above, if he's racist, I haven't heard it.  Then again I'm for all Americans regardless of color.  I see that with President Trump.  I never thought he was racist.  He wants all Americans to succeed.  So go vote for those that desire to destroy your business, and bring you down.  You only have yourself to blame.  

 

The words Trump and racist could never been heard in the same sentence before 2016.  Ds calling someone racist has been a tried and true remedy to shut down opposition.  Of course it doesn't work on Trump.  He keeps chugging along.  Meanwhile,  the Ds have resorted to calling each other racists now.  It's bout to get ugly in the Dnc ya'll.  Tru storie

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3 minutes ago, DaveTV1 said:

It sounded to me like he wants U.S. to have American power.  I can live with that.  As DAWG91 stated above, if he's racist, I haven't heard it.  Then again I'm for all Americans regardless of color.  I see that with President Trump.  I never thought he was racist.  He wants all Americans to succeed.  So go vote for those that desire to destroy your business, and bring you down.  You only have yourself to blame.  

 

Healthcare is what's going to kill trump.... 

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2 minutes ago, JETT said:

Healthcare is what's going to kill trump.... 

If anyone or anything "kills" Trump,  it will be the same ones that wacked JFK.  I pray that doesn't happen.  I think,  to this day,  our country hasn't recovered from that.  We haven't been right since then.

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1 minute ago, DAWG91 said:

If anyone or anything "kills" Trump,  it will be the same ones that wacked JFK.  I pray that doesn't happen.  I think,  to this day,  our country hasn't recovered from that.  We haven't been right since then.

I've read someone put a few million dollar hit out on him or something like that not to long ago.... 

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4 minutes ago, JETT said:

I've read someone put a few million dollar hit out on him or something like that not to long ago.... 

I wanna say it was new iranian terror general maybe?  If not,  it was another jihadist like that.  Im more concerned about the see aye aaaa...theyve the means to pull off something like this,  blame it on magical bullets and a mental midget,  not give a hoot about how credible it is,  and go on about their way giving us the middle finger knowing nothing will be done about it.

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20 hours ago, JETT said:

Sounded desperate to me, as a African American myself trump offers nothing for me but racism... I dont care what he says he ain't got my vote

If that's how you perceive racism.  I don't see how you do, I know President Trump respects all citizens regardless of race.  He wants all of us to succeed.  I know he hates poverty when it comes to our country, but that should be up to their elected officials to solve.  It hasn't happened in many communities, cities, states, and world wide.  Their elected officials have created the poverty of their people.  President Trump hasn't.  I like President Obama as a person, but hated his policies.  I do not like President Trump as a person, but I love his policies.  That's where we don't see eye to eye.  If I could have a mix of the President Obama speaking, and President Trump making policies that would be a glorious thing to behold.  Unfortunately President Obama attacks President Trump, and President Trump responds in kind. 

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41 minutes ago, DaveTV1 said:

If that's how you perceive racism.  I don't see how you do, I know President Trump respects all citizens regardless of race.  He wants all of us to succeed.  I know he hates poverty when it comes to our country, but that should be up to their elected officials to solve.  It hasn't happened in many communities, cities, states, and world wide.  Their elected officials have created the poverty of their people.  President Trump hasn't.  I like President Obama as a person, but hated his policies.  I do not like President Trump as a person, but I love his policies.  That's where we don't see eye to eye.  If I could have a mix of the President Obama speaking, and President Trump making policies that would be a glorious thing to behold.  Unfortunately President Obama attacks President Trump, and President Trump responds in kind. 

https://www.vox.com/2016/7/25/12270880/donald-trump-racist-racism-history

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