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Political scientist predicts Trump 362-176 landslide in Electoral College


Mr. P

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https://news.stonybrook.edu/facultystaff/maverick-modeller-helmut-norpoth-predicts-another-win-for-trump/

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Political scientist Helmut Norpoth fields media calls every week seeking comment on the upcoming presidential election. Why the interest? In 2016, he was one of a handful of experts who correctly predicted the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election.

Norpoth, a professor in Stony Brook’s Department of Political Science, has enjoyed notable success forecasting elections based on his Primary Model, a statistical representation of U.S. presidential races based on data going back more than a century.

In 2020, his model once again projects a Trump victory, giving the incumbent President a 90-percent chance of being re-elected in a landslide — a controversial call that runs contrary to current polls.

The Primary Model has correctly predicted five of the past six presidential elections, and when applied to previous elections, correctly predicts an impressive 25 of the last 27, missing only the 2000 election in which George W. Bush defeated Al Gore and the 1960 election in which John F. Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon — two extremely close and contested votes marred by allegations of voting inaccuracies.

 . . .

Norpoth described the focus on primaries as the key difference between his model and others.

“It’s all about primary elections, which are real electoral contests and the votes are counted and tabulated,” he said. “I also use real numbers, such as the results of previous elections, which indicate whether the pendulum is swinging away from or toward the White House party. This is something that also relies on real election results and not any kind of an opinion poll.

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Then they will be saying that it was because of Russian, Chinese, and now Iranian influence.  I don't see how Iran, China, or Russia would want to support Trump.  He hasn't worked with them in the last 3 1/2 years.  Biden has been praising China, so I think they would help him.  That's not how the media is painting it.  https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/08/07/us-counterspy-chief-warns-russia-china-iran-trying-to-meddle-in-2020-election/24585966/ .  I still think it's going to be a tight race to the finish on election night.  

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10 hours ago, BarryLaverty said:

Basing the winner on success in primaries on someone  who ran essentially unopposed in all primaries is just silly. 

I think the logic behind it, though, is probably based upon the numbers (and, hence, enthusiasm) of people who turned out for someone who essentially ran unopposed.

I haven't looked it up, but I wonder what overall turnout was during primary season for Democrats vs Republicans -- especially in key states.

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12 hours ago, Monte1076 said:

I think the logic behind it, though, is probably based upon the numbers (and, hence, enthusiasm) of people who turned out for someone who essentially ran unopposed.

I haven't looked it up, but I wonder what overall turnout was during primary season for Democrats vs Republicans -- especially in key states.

Even that is not an accurate figure for who will vote for President Trump in November.  The Republican Primary only allows for registered Republicans to vote, however the Democrat Primary allows anyone to vote in their primaries.  I voted for Bernie, because I knew Trump would defeat him in a landslide.  Biden was the Socialists best shot to unseat President Trump out of all the clowns that were running.  

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42 minutes ago, DaveTV1 said:

Even that is not an accurate figure for who will vote for President Trump in November.  The Republican Primary only allows for registered Republicans to vote, however the Democrat Primary allows anyone to vote in their primaries.  I voted for Bernie, because I knew Trump would defeat him in a landslide.  Biden was the Socialists best shot to unseat President Trump out of all the clowns that were running.  

If I'm not mistaken, and I might be, that registered you as a Democrat. You'll have to switch your registration back over, or just vote Republican next time to get it back, if you usually register Republican anyway.

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22 hours ago, Monte1076 said:

If I'm not mistaken, and I might be, that registered you as a Democrat. You'll have to switch your registration back over, or just vote Republican next time to get it back, if you usually register Republican anyway.

Even if they did without my knowledge I'll vote Republican or independent in the general election.  There's no way I'm voting for Abbott.  

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