🗳️ OFFICIAL 2020 ELECTION PREDICTION 🇺🇸

[Mr. P]

Okay okay...  so just ASSUME your preferred outcome is correct (Trump landslide, Biden landslide, etc. whatever), now what is going to be the big reason WHY your candidate won? Please explain to me what demographic or data trend is going to do it for your guy? 

Who do you think IS going to vote for Trump or Biden, and who isn't? How will these groups compare to 2016? 

When it's all said and done, and all the experts are doing their analysis, what trends do you think they're going to find from the results? 

For example: "I think that Trump will make gains with Blacks and Latinos, but loses ground with middle-class Whites."

Taking a quick glance around the Political Forum, I'm seeing a lot of confidence and bluster about what y'all think the results are going to be, but I want to know WHY you think those results will happen.

Break it down for me, I'm sincerely curious. Thanks! 

[Wild74]

How all  the polls where wrong once again

[Mr. P]

15 minutes ago, Wild74 said:

How all  the polls where wrong once again

Interesting...  if this is the case, what do you anticipate will be the long-term impact of such an overwhelming failure on the part of the pollsters? 

[Monte1076]

3 minutes ago, LOL said:

Interesting...  if this is the case, what do you anticipate will be the long-term impact of such an overwhelming failure on the part of the pollsters? 

Well, if what happens this time is the same that happened in 2016 (Biden gets more votes overall, Trump wins EC) they'll say the polls were still right because Biden got more votes.

Or, they'll be confounded, say they can't believe the polls were wrong, then keep doing what they're doing, while saying "We don't know how to poll certain people."

People have admitted to lying to pollsters.

[Wild74]

3 minutes ago, LOL said:

Interesting...  if this is the case, what do you anticipate will be the long-term impact of such an overwhelming failure on the part of the pollsters? 

Nothing, they didn't change their method from 2016, Clinton did win the popular vote so their polls was right in that aspect, it is the individual state polls that is lacking

[Mr. P]

On 10/27/2020 at 11:03 AM, Monte1076 said:

Or, they'll be confounded, say they can't believe the polls were wrong, then keep doing what they're doing, while saying "We don't know how to poll certain people."

I was still working in journalism during the 2016 election, and I remember the immediate shock reaction. For a brief (all-too-brief) there was a feeling of humility in the newsroom. A sense that, "maybe we need to work harder to understand all those rubes out in the hinterlands." Or that perhaps is was they (media) who were out of touch. 

Aaaaaaaand then it was quickly replaced by "Russian hackers" and wild-eyed conspiracies, and all introspection went out the window. 
 

On 10/27/2020 at 11:04 AM, Wild74 said:

Nothing, they didn't change their method from 2016, Clinton did win the popular vote so their polls was right in that aspect, it is the individual state polls that is lacking

Are you anticipating a similar discrepancy?

That is: do you expect Biden-Harris to roll up big inflated numbers in a few dark blue metro cities, but lose the Electoral College due to being edged out in the toss-up states? 

[Wild74]

23 hours ago, LOL said:

Are you anticipating a similar discrepancy?

That is: do you expect Biden-Harris to roll up big inflated numbers in a few dark blue metro cities, but lose the Electoral College due to being edged out in the toss-up states? 

From what I am reading Biden may not roll up big numbers in New York and California as Clinton did because of all the law and order disruptions has some people leaning more toward the GOP law and order stance verses the democrats anything is ok stance. Biden will still take those states but the margins will shrink. I am thinking Trump wins the popular vote this time around. 

Also throw in states like Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia. I think they are all in play.

[Mr. P]

1 minute ago, Wild74 said:

From what I am reading Biden may not roll up big numbers in New York and California as Clinton did because of all the law and order disruptions has some people leaning more toward the GOP law and order stance verses the democrats anything is ok stance. Biden will still take those states but the margins will shrink. I am thinking Trump wins the popular vote this time around. 

Whoa, that's a big claim! By how much, d'ya think?  

[Wild74]

23 hours ago, LOL said:

Whoa, that's a big claim! By how much, d'ya think?  

That is not to big of a claim, last time Trump was a novelty, Trump has proven himself a good conservative leader and delivers on most of his promises, I think Trump could win by as much as 1.5 million votes in the popular vote that is.  

 

Also I could be wrong...  

[BarryLaverty]

My opinion is that this will be an election where the women's vote will make a big, big difference for Biden. 

[Mr. P]

8 minutes ago, BarryLaverty said:

My opinion is that this will be an election where the women's vote will make a big, big difference for Biden. 

Across the board or in specific demographic groupings? If I recall (and without Googling), didn't White women break for Trump by a large margin in 2016? 

[BarryLaverty]

13 minutes ago, LOL said:

Across the board or in specific demographic groupings? If I recall (and without Googling), didn't White women break for Trump by a large margin in 2016? 

Trump actually won the White women vote just by 47-45, but he lost the overall women's vote 54-39. This time, I predict that last number will be very similar for Biden for White women for Biden, and that will increase the number, overall. 

[RETIREDFAN1]

20 minutes ago, BarryLaverty said:

Trump actually won the White women vote just by 47-45, but he lost the overall women's vote 54-39. This time, I predict that last number will be very similar for Biden for White women for Biden, and that will increase the number, overall. 

[Mr. P]

31 minutes ago, BarryLaverty said:

Trump actually won the White women vote just by 47-45, but he lost the overall women's vote 54-39. This time, I predict that last number will be very similar for Biden for White women for Biden, and that will increase the number, overall. 

So you're expecting White women to vote Biden-Harris by a margin of around 55 percent to 40 percent, correct? 

I'm not a math guy, but that would put Biden's overall share of women percentage between 75-80 percent. Is that what you're expecting? 

[BarryLaverty]

Just now, LOL said:

So you're expecting White women to vote Biden-Harris by a margin of around 55 percent to 40 percent, correct? 

I'm not a math guy, b that would put Biden's overall share of women percentage between 75-80 percent. Is that what you're expecting? 

I am not a math guy, either, but I have read that he may pull about 60-40 the woman vote. 

[Mr. P]

3 minutes ago, BarryLaverty said:

I am not a math guy, either, but I have read that he may pull about 60-40 the woman vote. 

Hmm, well, forgive me, but that doesn't add up... 

If Biden is winning White women 55-40, Latino women 70-30, and Black women 90-10 (a very Trump-generous estimate), how does that add up to a 60-40 split with women overall? 

[BarryLaverty]

Just now, LOL said:

Hmm, well, forgive me, but that doesn't add up... 

If Biden is winning White women 55-40, Latino women 70-30, and Black women 90-10 (a very Trump-generous estimate), how does that add up to a 60-40 split with women overall? 

There are many more white women than Black or Latino voting. 

[Mr. P]

Just now, BarryLaverty said:

There are many more white women than Black or Latino voting. 

Fair enough, and I don't want to belabor the math aspect...

But I do want to confirm that you do believe that Biden-Harris will get a larger share of the women vote (overall) than Hillary Clinton in 2016, yes? 

[Mr. P]

1 minute ago, Unashamed said:

I keep seeing stuff like this 

How do you know those aren't Never Trumpers voting for Biden?  

 

[BarryLaverty]

1 minute ago, LOL said:

Fair enough, and I don't want to belabor the math aspect...

But I do want to confirm that you do believe that Biden-Harris will get a larger share of the women vote (overall) than Hillary Clinton in 2016, yes? 

Yes, I definitely do. I think, as evidenced by the 2018 midterm election, that women by and large can't stand Trump. He has done nothing recently to endear himself to them or change their mind. 

[Mr. P]

Just now, BarryLaverty said:

Yes, I definitely do. I think, as evidenced by the 2018 midterm election, that women by and large can't stand Trump. He has done nothing recently to endear himself to them or change their mind. 

Got it. Thanks. 

[RETIREDFAN1]

4 minutes ago, LOL said:

How do you know those aren't Never Trumpers voting for Biden?  

 

There aren't as many "never Trumpers" as the propaganda has led you to believe........

[Mr. P]

1 minute ago, RETIREDFAN1 said:

There aren't as many "never Trumpers" as the propaganda has led you to believe........

According to the clean-cut white boy on the TV, all the Republicans are voting Democrat this year. Gonna be a blue wave! SURF'S UP, DUUUUUDE!!!

[RETIREDFAN1]

5 minutes ago, BarryLaverty said:

Yes, I definitely do. I think, as evidenced by the 2018 midterm election, that women by and large can't stand Trump. He has done nothing recently to endear himself to them or change their mind. 

You're really going to be surprised.........

[RETIREDFAN1]

2 minutes ago, LOL said:

According to the clean-cut white boy on the TV, all the Republicans are voting Democrat this year. Gonna be a blue wave! SURF'S UP, DUUUUUDE!!!