Pigskin Top 21 Class 3A Division 2

[Wild74]

[THEHARDWAY]

3 hours ago, Wild74 said:

I can’t Justify Poth that high. I get they are 5-0, but they haven’t played anyone. 

[H3llR4z0r]

YOU MEAN QUEEN CITY ONLY HAS 1 LOSS AND ISN'T ON THE LIST?? GASP!!!

[lionpride08]

2 hours ago, Airitout1 said:

I can’t Justify Poth that high. I get they are 5-0, but they haven’t played anyone. 

I agree.... Not sure if they will play anyone till playoffs

[THEHARDWAY]

7 hours ago, lionpride08 said:

I agree.... Not sure if they will play anyone till playoffs

Agreed

[Timboslice79]

5 minutes ago, NATUREBOY98 said:

Who hell has Waskom played?

Absolutely nobody.  Garrison, Arp, and Ore City are really down this year. Won't really know anything about Waskom until October 30th. 

[Timboslice79]

Just now, NATUREBOY98 said:

Why did the schedule cupcakes. Y’all were good last year just young as hell. 

I'm not sure they knew garrison would be down this year. We always play Arp. We scheduled SA but that one rained out. OC is district so that wasn't a choice.  I wish we would've scheduled Tatum or DF but it is what it is.

[LSUTIGERS]

3 hours ago, NATUREBOY98 said:

Why did the schedule cupcakes. Y’all were good last year just young as hell. 

Had a hard time getting teams to play us is what I was told.

[Pax]

I tracked the Pigskin Prep ranking each week last year to sort of learn how it worked.  The biggest movers are teams that win when they are picked to lose or teams that lose when you are picked to win.  If you are picked to win by 10 and you win by more than that, your rating goes up more or less proportionally to how many more points you won by.  The same for losing by more points than you were picked to lose by.  If you are picked to win and you win, but by fewer points, you will go down in rating the same way.  If you flip a game - meaning you win when you are picked to lose and vice versa - the rating is about double what it would normally be.  For example, if you are picked to lose by 5 and you win by 5, you get double what you would get if you were picked to win by 2 and won by 12. 

In week 2, Falls City was a 2-point favorite to beat Poth, and Poth won that game 58-0.  They swung that game 60 points AND flipped it from a loss to a win doubling their increase in rating.  They jumped 18.47 points from week 1 to week 2.  Falls City likewise dropped 18.47 points in rating.  Since then, neither team has seen any other drastic changes.  They have pretty much met expectations.  Falls City has hovered just under 120 every week while Poth has hovered just under 160 every week, so it appears on paper that they got it right.  When Poth plays a poor team, the spread in the game corresponds, so the quality of the opponents are taken into account.  If they play a bad team, they are favored to win by 77.  Poth dropped a little on that game because they "only" won 62-0.  I don't know how high they belong on this list, but I can't really make a case that they are absurdly over-rated.