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Paris Wilcats playoff dilemma


regaleagle

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18 minutes ago, WhoamI97539 said:

Yes sorry if I confused you Kilgore is in district 9,  10,11,12 are region 3

I confused myself on that one......thanks for pointing it out to me.  That makes the playoffs even more beneficial for District 7 now......against the weaker teams of the Dallas District 8 of Dallas Carter, Wilmer Hutchins, Roosevelt, and whoever else makes it.

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Just to be clear on this.......it could happen that all three teams could tie at the end of district play.  Anna could win out against Ranchview and Terrell(3-3), while Kaufman loses out to Argyle and Melissa to go to (3-3).  And Paris could lose to Argyle to end up (3-3) in district play also.  In this case, Paris would hold the edge over Kaufman but not Anna(since they had to forfeit to Anna).  Anna lost to Kaufman......so we would have a three way clustergoose......this scenario is highly possible and very probable.  So maybe Kaufman IS NOT "IN" yet either.  And just maybe NONE of them are "IN" yet......after analyzing things that's what it looks like.  So it's not yet decided and will not be decided until the last whistle of the regular season blows.

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1 minute ago, regaleagle said:

As it turns out.......Anna MUST win BOTH of its remaining games to stay alive in the playoff hunt.......while Kaufman and Paris can both lose and still be in the hunt for the two spots available.

So I guess it's not just a Paris playoff dilemma......but a Paris, Kaufman, Anna playoff dilemma.......except that Paris gave away two possible wins because of forfeits because of these stupid rules they have set up for everybody.

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When you setup new rules in the middle of a fear panic and refuse to later allow common sense, then you get nonsense.  Paris had 2 cases in the football program.  Whoopee Doo.  No one cares.  They probably didn’t know they were sick.  Should never have allowed a health dept. to decide because, yes we know, out of an abundance of caution, blah, blah.  We don’t ever do that when 2 kids have the flu.   Forfeit or no contest?   I dont know.  If outside sources are making the decision, then it should probably be a no contest.  

 

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9 hours ago, regaleagle said:

As you can see, there is a chance that Paris could be left out of the 4th playoff spot if Anna wins that matchup with Terrell in the final week......UNLESS Paris upsets Argyle in Paris in the final week to assure a playoff spot.  If Anna wins out against Ranchview and Terrell, then Anna will get the 4th playoff spot.  Kaufman already defeated Anna in district play.......so if they are tied Kaufman gets the 3rd spot  and Anna the final spot with a win over Terrell.  But Terrell lost to Paris, so if Terrell wins the final game against Anna......then Paris gets the final spot because the tie will go to Paris( assuming Paris loses to Argyle).

Don't know your district rules, but it looks like a three-way tie for third place is going to happen and Paris has to finish at least fourth, maybe third if Anna gets beat. Anna's only district win is a forfeit, they could lose one of their last two. I'll bet Paris gets in.

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Actually.......Paris could get in even if Anna wins out.......IF Kaufman loses  both of their remaining two games to Argyle and Melissa.  Paris beat Kaufman in district play......even though they had a forfeit(loss) to Anna.  But Kaufman beat Anna in district........so that's the clustergoose. I guess there are rules already voted in advance for the district should a 3-way or even 2-way tie occur.  Usually on 2-way ties they can go to the head-to-head result......but what about this possible  clustergoose, Huh?  Terrell could help solve the whole shenanigan by defeating Anna in that last game of the season for both squads.  IF that happens, then Paris will get the #3 seed and Kaufman will  be the #4 seed.

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One more thing........even IF Terrell were to somehow beat Melissa this week and then Anna next week to tie Kaufman and Paris at (3-3).......assuming Kaufman loses both games and Paris loses to Argyle......then Terrell would still be on the outside looking in because both Paris and Kaufman have already defeated Terrell in district play.  So this means Terrell is definitely OUT and are playing for pride for the rest of the season.

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And don't even think about what would happen in the crazy event that Melissa were to drop both games to Terrell this week and then to Kaufman next week.  They would end up with a (3-3) district record, too!!  But the odds of that happening are very very  remote at best......but stranger things have happened before in Texas high school football.  Just too many scenarios are possible......but the highly probable one says a 3-way tie for Paris, Kaufman, and Anna or a 2-way tie for Paris and Kaufman.  Argyle is really the only playoff-bound team in this district already assured of a spot.

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After reviewing everything that has happened and/or could happen in the remaining two weeks of the regular season in this district, I have come to the conclusion that it was impossible for this particular district to do anything else as far as "make up" games or cancelled games in the event of any covid restrictions by any of the teams.  Because this district has 7 teams and the scheduling would not allow any room for a make-up game.......I guess they decided on the forfeit procedure.  But now we are seeing games being played on other nights during the week to make up some of the games for teams and districts across Texas.  I'm fairly certain the 7-team part of the equation did impact this situation moreso than it would have had the district only had 5 or 6 teams in it.  Without the two forfeits I also feel that Paris would have won at least one of those games(Anna) and this scenario could have been totally avoided.  The game against Melissa would have been one of those "big games" of the season for both teams......but it never happened.  It would have occurred the week following Argyle's big win over Melissa......so who knows what might have happened.  I think most of us agree that Paris should be at least (7-2)(4-1) now instead of (6-3)(3-2)......and very well could be (8-1)(5-0) with a big showdown against Argyle in the final week of the regular season.  But it is what it is......unfortunately for Paris.  

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On 10/25/2020 at 4:34 PM, Footballalltheway said:

I know Paris would have beat Anna and probably beat Melissa.  Should have been ruled no contest.  I know at least one school that had a positive case but conveniently suppressed that info so they could play.  It penalizes the teams that do the right thing and report positive cases.  Even though a splinter in a teenager’s finger is more deadly then the Chinese flu for them at least most schools are being honest.  

Paris would have destroyed Anna but IMO would not have beat Melissa, bad sadly we will never know. I do think these forfeits will have much impact on the district standings as I think they will finish 1-Argyle 2-Melissa 3-Paris 4-Kaufman and would have been the same without the forfeits

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On 10/26/2020 at 12:27 PM, BlackShirtD said:

Dist 5,6,7,8 are region 2.   Dist 7 Argyle, Melissa, Paris etc. plays dist 8 which is the Dallas schools - Carter, Hutch, Lincoln etc.    Dist 9,10,11,12 are reg 3.   

I think Carter is best of that district and would have been #1 seed but they had to forfeit games and will likely now face Melissa or Argyle in 1st round. Thinking D7 sweeps D8 and none of the games will be close.

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On 10/25/2020 at 4:48 PM, regaleagle said:

In other words.......Anna MUST lose one of its two remaining games for Paris to get in.......at least that's the way I see it.  They should beat Ranchview for sure.....but a win against a pretty good Terrell team will be difficult. Terrell started 7 sophs and one freshman on offense last week against Argyle......and have done so for quite a few weeks.  They are talented and have speed......they have a good soph qb and will be very good next season.  Anna wasn't a pushover either.....they have a couple of really talented skill players also.  It's just that this district is full of very quality teams and a couple of worthy teams(besides Ranchview) will be left out of the equation in this 7-team district.  The top six teams could make the playoffs in some other districts for sure.

Anna-Ranchview may actually be a close game. Both teams are really bad overall. Anna has a better balanced offense and can throw the ball with some success. Ranchview is superior upfront especially on D. Melissa held both teams to under 110 total yards and Cards D is solid but not great. IMO will be a close game and Anna wins by 10-12

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Depending on what the forfeit rules are, lets say your district points cap out at +16, then that puts Anna at +16, Paris at -16 head to head.  Now figure in Kaufman who could also end up at 3-3.  Kaufman beat Anna 24-21, that is +3 for Kaufman, -3 for Anna.  Paris beat Kaufman 35-21, so Paris +14, Kaufman -14.  Now you need your math skills.

Anna +16, -3      = +13

Paris -16, +14     = -2

Kaufman +3, -14 = -11

So Anna could go as the 3 seed and Paris as the 4.  All 3 teams beat each other (including the forfeit).

This is if and only if all 3 teams end up with a 3-3 district record, or they could all meet up and flip a coin.  Odd man out, then head to head comes in to play.

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I wouldn't get too wound up over playoff matchups right now.  The COVID cloud is still hanging over everyone and could even hit a potential state contender like Argyle on the eve of the playoffs.  It's a weird season for football at all levels (HS, college, pro).

I don't know what the district 3-way tiebreaker is, but I assume point differential might be in play.  My only question is how you count a forfeit.  Doesn't it officially list as a 1-0 loss?  If so, Paris would have the advantage on a 3-way tiebreak.

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On 10/28/2020 at 7:14 AM, Parisian said:

I wouldn't get too wound up over playoff matchups right now.  The COVID cloud is still hanging over everyone and could even hit a potential state contender like Argyle on the eve of the playoffs.  It's a weird season for football at all levels (HS, college, pro).

I don't know what the district 3-way tiebreaker is, but I assume point differential might be in play.  My only question is how you count a forfeit.  Doesn't it officially list as a 1-0 loss?  If so, Paris would have the advantage on a 3-way tiebreak.

Somewhere in some district at whatever classification it was I saw a forfeit count as a win for 16-0 as the final score.

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On 10/28/2020 at 7:14 AM, Parisian said:

I wouldn't get too wound up over playoff matchups right now.  The COVID cloud is still hanging over everyone and could even hit a potential state contender like Argyle on the eve of the playoffs.  It's a weird season for football at all levels (HS, college, pro).

I don't know what the district 3-way tiebreaker is, but I assume point differential might be in play.  My only question is how you count a forfeit.  Doesn't it officially list as a 1-0 loss?  If so, Paris would have the advantage on a 3-way tiebreak.

Most districts went with losing by the maximum tiebreaker points - usually 15 to 18 points

That keeps a team from saying they can’t play a game because of COVID if they lost a late season game by a certain number points they would miss the playoffs but losing by only 1 point keeps them in the playoffs. Sounds deceitful but would be done by some - especially if a good player(s) we’re out hurt but would be back by the playoffs. 

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