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*Area* Rogers vs #3 Poth Friday 7:30 @ Smithville


lionpride08

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Poth brings in the #3 ranking and perfect record out of dist 15 against the 3 seed out of district 13 Rogers. Poth Defeated Skidmore-Tynan 71 to 8. Skidmore was the 6th place team but got moved up because of covid. Rogers comes in win a win over 2 seed Tidehaven 41 to 34... Thoughts on this one? Is Poth overrated or the real deal?

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31 minutes ago, Airitout1 said:

Gut is saying Rogers. Would be Curious what @Pax swing stats show for this one. Poth does have some solid linemen that could wreak havok on that pistol option.

Yes I seen highlights of poth. They do have some size on the line as well as wr's. They like to put 6 on the oline on offense and they run the 4-2-5 on defense but the highlights I seen Natalia was passing all over them

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On 11/15/2020 at 6:43 PM, Airitout1 said:

Gut is saying Rogers. Would be Curious what @Pax swing stats show for this one. Poth does have some solid linemen that could wreak havok on that pistol option.

At this point in the year, I start ignoring pre-district games because some teams play up, others play down.  From here on out, I'm only considering district and beyond - even for the strength of schedule of the opponents.  I have found this to be more accurate when there are enough games, and about playoff time is when there are.  Anyway :

Poth is averaging 53.8 points per game against defenses that give up 24.0 on average, scoring 29.9 points more than the defense they are facing normally allows.  They are giving up just 7.7 per game to teams averaging 24.8 ppg holding to teams to 17.1 fewer points than they average.  Overall swing for Poth, +47.0.

Rogers is averaging 41.9 per game vs defenses giving up 28.2 (13.6 more) and holding teams to 27.6 that average 29.4 (1.8 fewer).  Overall swing for Rogers is +15.4.

There are two perspectives I use to look at this.  Poth's swing in +47.0.  Rogers is - on average - winning games by an average of 14.3.  If Poth swings that game by their average, you'd get a Poth win - by 32.7 points.  Rogers' swing is +15.4, and Poth is beating teams by 46.2 on average, so if Rogers swings that their way by their average, you still get a Poth win by 30.7 points.  I have found that when these two "perspectives" agree, it's probably a good indication of how the game will go.  So, I would predict Poth winning pretty big.  Poth 55, Rogers 23.

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39 minutes ago, Pax said:

At this point in the year, I start ignoring pre-district games because some teams play up, others play down.  From here on out, I'm only considering district and beyond - even for the strength of schedule of the opponents.  I have found this to be more accurate when there are enough games, and about playoff time is when there are.  Anyway :

Poth is averaging 53.8 points per game against defenses that give up 24.0 on average, scoring 29.9 points more than the defense they are facing normally allows.  They are giving up just 7.7 per game to teams averaging 24.8 ppg holding to teams to 17.1 fewer points than they average.  Overall swing for Poth, +47.0.

Rogers is averaging 41.9 per game vs defenses giving up 28.2 (13.6 more) and holding teams to 27.6 that average 29.4 (1.8 fewer).  Overall swing for Rogers is +15.4.

There are two perspectives I use to look at this.  Poth's swing in +47.0.  Rogers is - on average - winning games by an average of 14.3.  If Poth swings that game by their average, you'd get a Poth win - by 32.7 points.  Rogers' swing is +15.4, and Poth is beating teams by 46.2 on average, so if Rogers swings that their way by their average, you still get a Poth win by 30.7 points.  I have found that when these two "perspectives" agree, it's probably a good indication of how the game will go.  So, I would predict Poth winning pretty big.  Poth 55, Rogers 23.

Hope you didn't spend too much time on those numbers.  Good to have some numbers, but I don't think they tell the story in this case.  Poth overall schedule doesn't hold a candle to Rogers' schedule.  Rogers played a few poor teams, but also represented themselves well against much better competition than what Poth saw.  Also, Poth doesn't like to move beyond the second round.  If Poth can get over their aversion to 3rd round playoff games, they may manage to pull it out, but won't be by more than 10. 

I'm going with Rogers. 

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1 hour ago, Pax said:

At this point in the year, I start ignoring pre-district games because some teams play up, others play down.  From here on out, I'm only considering district and beyond - even for the strength of schedule of the opponents.  I have found this to be more accurate when there are enough games, and about playoff time is when there are.  Anyway :

Poth is averaging 53.8 points per game against defenses that give up 24.0 on average, scoring 29.9 points more than the defense they are facing normally allows.  They are giving up just 7.7 per game to teams averaging 24.8 ppg holding to teams to 17.1 fewer points than they average.  Overall swing for Poth, +47.0.

Rogers is averaging 41.9 per game vs defenses giving up 28.2 (13.6 more) and holding teams to 27.6 that average 29.4 (1.8 fewer).  Overall swing for Rogers is +15.4.

There are two perspectives I use to look at this.  Poth's swing in +47.0.  Rogers is - on average - winning games by an average of 14.3.  If Poth swings that game by their average, you'd get a Poth win - by 32.7 points.  Rogers' swing is +15.4, and Poth is beating teams by 46.2 on average, so if Rogers swings that their way by their average, you still get a Poth win by 30.7 points.  I have found that when these two "perspectives" agree, it's probably a good indication of how the game will go.  So, I would predict Poth winning pretty big.  Poth 55, Rogers 23.

Thanks bud! 

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22 minutes ago, Everide2016 said:

Hope you didn't spend too much time on those numbers.  Good to have some numbers, but I don't think they tell the story in this case.  Poth overall schedule doesn't hold a candle to Rogers' schedule.  Rogers played a few poor teams, but also represented themselves well against much better competition than what Poth saw.  Also, Poth doesn't like to move beyond the second round.  If Poth can get over their aversion to 3rd round playoff games, they may manage to pull it out, but won't be by more than 10. 

I'm going with Rogers. 

This is just for fun, and I was asked to do it.  I was happy to oblige.  If it turns out it was completely wrong - which is obviously entirely possible - it would have still been fun.

I will say that Poth is one of the teams I'm least confident about BECAUSE of their schedule.  It's not just their opponents, but their opponents' opponents, and I don't take it that far (because it would require analyzing ~80 games.  I might do that later.  When is this game being played?

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3 hours ago, Pax said:

This is just for fun, and I was asked to do it.  I was happy to oblige.  If it turns out it was completely wrong - which is obviously entirely possible - it would have still been fun.

I will say that Poth is one of the teams I'm least confident about BECAUSE of their schedule.  It's not just their opponents, but their opponents' opponents, and I don't take it that far (because it would require analyzing ~80 games.  I might do that later.  When is this game being played?

Friday 7:30 Barry field Smithville tx

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4 hours ago, Pax said:

This is just for fun, and I was asked to do it.  I was happy to oblige.  If it turns out it was completely wrong - which is obviously entirely possible - it would have still been fun.

I will say that Poth is one of the teams I'm least confident about BECAUSE of their schedule.  It's not just their opponents, but their opponents' opponents, and I don't take it that far (because it would require analyzing ~80 games.  I might do that later.  When is this game being played?

Agreed.  I like looking at the numbers like that too.  It can turn into a rabbit hole for me if I'm not careful.

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