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Nederland vs. Fort Bend Marshall


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FBM is the back to back defending state runner ups until they aren’t. 

They have owned REG III along with Huntsville. 

I’m not betting against either one of them. 

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57 minutes ago, Mavchamp said:

FBM is the back to back defending state runner ups until they aren’t. 

They have owned REG III along with Huntsville. 

I’m not betting against either one of them. 

Manvel and Pearland Dawson owned it for years.  Recently its been Huntsville and FBM.  They are both really good teams.  My 12-5a definitely underdogs. 

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Taking Ned. 

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I look for Nederland to pull the upset over FBM.  I don’t think Marshall is as good as past teams.   Very soft District.  

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On 12/24/2020 at 6:34 PM, Hagar said:

I look for Nederland to pull the upset over FBM.  I don’t think Marshall is as good as past teams.   Very soft District.  

I absolutely loathe this argument to pick for/against a team.  Especially a team with a history of winning.

Like ANY team has ANY say in who is in their district.

That weak district hasn't kept FBM from advancing to back to back state championships the last two seasons....   or the quarterfinals this season.

Sounds like they are doing just fine......

JMHO

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1 hour ago, Mavchamp said:

I absolutely loathe this argument to pick for/against a team.  Especially a team with a history of winning.

Like ANY team has ANY say in who is in their district.

That weak district hasn't kept FBM from advancing to back to back state championships the last two seasons....   or the quarterfinals this season.

Sounds like they are doing just fine......

JMHO

Interesting that you waited until after the game to jump on my upset prediction.   A weak district is just that, weak.  For example, Dist 10 4AD1.   Three of the teams were steamrolled by Dist 9, so a relatively weak District.  No, it doesn’t mean that FBM is weak/bad, but on the other hand, their Dist wins were powderpuffs.   Then they come within a dropped pass of losing to PNG, who was fourth in their District with a 5-5 (4-3) record.   Jmo

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3 minutes ago, Hagar said:

Interesting that you waited until after the game to jump on my upset prediction.   A weak district is just that, weak.  For example, Dist 10 4AD1.   Three of the teams were steamrolled by Dist 9, so a relatively weak District.  No, it doesn’t mean that FBM is weak/bad, but on the other hand, their Dist wins were powderpuffs.   Then they come within a dropped pass of losing to PNG, who was fourth in their District with a 5-5 (4-3) record.   Jmo

Oh good grief.... I didn't "wait until after the game to jump on your upset prediction".

I worked yesterday and today and wasn't able to say the EXACT same thing I would have BEFORE the game was played.  My quote from a day or two before shows that.

I don't see how a weak district correlates to what a team does in the playoffs when they actually have a history of winning.  Now... if a team is a relative unknown...or a darkhorse... sure, call their district into question......i.e Whitehouse, Pine Tree... 

The fact that FBM is beating up on those powderpuffs doesn't seem to be adversely affecting their post season runs.

The PNG game....  a close game against a tradition-rich program.  I don't see the issue.  

JMH)

 

On 12/23/2020 at 2:54 PM, Mavchamp said:

FBM is the back to back defending state runner ups until they aren’t. 

They have owned REG III along with Huntsville. 

I’m not betting against either one of them. 

I'll stand by this another week..... but I do expect a great game Vs. Crosby.

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I think about how many teams have had tons of playoff success in spite of traditionally being in weak districts....

Katy.....  Converse Judson.... Euless Trinity..... Southlake Carroll 

Yet they win and win and win when it matters.

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Crosby will beat em

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15 hours ago, Mavchamp said:

Oh good grief.... I didn't "wait until after the game to jump on your upset prediction".

I worked yesterday and today and wasn't able to say the EXACT same thing I would have BEFORE the game was played.  My quote from a day or two before shows that.

I don't see how a weak district correlates to what a team does in the playoffs when they actually have a history of winning.  Now... if a team is a relative unknown...or a darkhorse... sure, call their district into question......i.e Whitehouse, Pine Tree... 

The fact that FBM is beating up on those powderpuffs doesn't seem to be adversely affecting their post season runs.

The PNG game....  a close game against a tradition-rich program.  I don't see the issue.  

JMH)

 

I'll stand by this another week..... but I do expect a great game Vs. Crosby.

You make valid points, but a weak District, like a powder puff pre-Districe schedule, does often distort just how good any team  is.   In this case, since I was pulling for Nederland, I grasp at a straw and missed.  But you’re correct, not a good argument with a consistently dominant team, as proven by the score.   Still, it’s a valid argument for a team that hasn’t got a history of dominating.

If Crosby doesn’t get star-struck, like Ned did, yes, it should be a great game.  Crosby scoring 32 on that great Huntsville Defense was very impressive.   What’s your guess on over/under?

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20 minutes ago, Hagar said:

You make valid points, but a weak District, like a powder puff pre-Districe schedule, does often distort just how good any team  is.   In this case, since I was pulling for Nederland, I grasp at a straw and missed.  But you’re correct, not a good argument with a consistently dominant team, as proven by the score.   Still, it’s a valid argument for a team that hasn’t got a history of dominating.

If Crosby doesn’t get star-struck, like Ned did, yes, it should be a great game.  Crosby scoring 32 on that great Huntsville Defense was very impressive.   What’s your guess on over/under?

For me.... in the playoffs.....a team's W/L record has very little to do with my picks.  They may have piled up some losses because a brutally tough non-district schedule.  Maybe they padded some wins the same way.... or a weak district.  

When it comes to the playoffs....  it's about tradition for me in a lot of games.  Who has a winning playoff tradition?  Who has the experience?  The lore?  The history of winning?

Those teams just seem to make it happen more often than not.... hard to bet against them.  Even when they are the underdog

I mean.... do you respect a (9-4) PNG or Nederland team.... or a (12-1) Houston Milby team more?  That's a no-brainer for me.

That's why I picked AMC to beat Pine Tree.... and missed.  AMC has pedigree... PT doesn't.

For the last few seasons in region III..... it's been Huntsville and FBM.  Hard to pick against that when they kept on winning (even if it wasn't always in blowout fashion).

-----

I think FMB and Crosby is going to be a great game.  Part of me thinks it's going to be high scoring... but I'm leaning for lower score game.

I'm thinking something like 31-21 FBM.  

But who knows.... could end up being 48-45.  Still taking FBM.

 

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40 minutes ago, Mavchamp said:

For me.... in the playoffs.....a team's W/L record has very little to do with my picks.  They may have piled up some losses because a brutally tough non-district schedule.  Maybe they padded some wins the same way.... or a weak district.  

When it comes to the playoffs....  it's about tradition for me in a lot of games.  Who has a winning playoff tradition?  Who has the experience?  The lore?  The history of winning?

Those teams just seem to make it happen more often than not.... hard to bet against them.  Even when they are the underdog

I mean.... do you respect a (9-4) PNG or Nederland team.... or a (12-1) Houston Milby team more?  That's a no-brainer for me.

That's why I picked AMC to beat Pine Tree.... and missed.  AMC has pedigree... PT doesn't.

For the last few seasons in region III..... it's been Huntsville and FBM.  Hard to pick against that when they kept on winning (even if it wasn't always in blowout fashion).

-----

I think FMB and Crosby is going to be a great game.  Part of me thinks it's going to be high scoring... but I'm leaning for lower score game.

I'm thinking something like 31-21 FBM.  

But who knows.... could end up being 48-45.  Still taking FBM.

 

Tradition is a thing most often overlooked.  Teams like PNG, with a lackluster record, still have tradition, and often play way over their heads because of it.   Some teams have little participation in off season work outs, but if you want to play for a team like Carthage or Aledo, you better do all you can to be ready, because the other guys are.

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With respect to making predictions, I always rely on the “ifs”.  If the team with the better record doesn’t have turnovers, dropped passes, get penalties, miss extra points, miss tackles, etc.... I say they will win. But a 7-5 team will beat a historically good team in the playoffs team every time if that team with the history does those things mentioned above against the team with a worse record. Who they played in non district or district or how deep they always go in the playoffs do have some validity. But....FBM didn’t make mistakes and that’s why they crushed Nederland. I don’t know the stats but perhaps Crosby beat Huntsville because they did fewer of the things mentioned above. Carthage wins consistently because they don’t make mistakes. Year in and year out. Just because they won state in 2008 didnt help them win it in 2020 at all. JMHO. 
 

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