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9 hours ago, LoboFan07 said:

Doesn't seem like Sherman is going down at all.

That new high school probably played a part in the number bump. That thing is nice.

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Meanwhile PT is on a slow decline.  I live in Longview. No kids.  But if I did... it would be a no-brainer for me where I’d send them.  While LiSD has plenty of its own issues.... the opport

I haven't lived in Longview since damn near when I graduated HS but man....everytime I come back home... never fails to see something new built. Neighborhoods, businesses, roads...etc. Part of th

Longview is safe as long as they stay below Highland Park lol.

I can easily see the 6A cutoff line going up at least 75-100 with the way schools around the state are growing.

Other key statewide 5A D1 news:

Aledo will have over 2000 kids in the fall, they will definitely move up to 5A D1 and will probably move on to 6A the following alignment.

Smithson Valley looks to be dropping down from 6A...the new high schools in Comal ISD are having an effect on the enrollment.

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https://www.6atexasfootball.com/forum/main-forum/team-threads/77-official-longview-lobo-thread-home-of-lobo-nation?p=599616#post599616

Just did a whole break down on the Lobo thread on 6A.

West Mesquite is sitting at 2,272, easily could be moving to 6A this go around with that.

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28 minutes ago, ANTI said:

I can easily see the 6A cutoff line going up at least 75-100 with the way schools around the state are growing.

Man, if it goes that high, things would take a dramatic shift.

Cedar Hill would be on the bubble (unless they've grown or have some other second school they have to count that I don't know about).

Legacy would probably be 6A still, but they'd move way closer to that bubble.

I think Longview, Tyler, McKinney North, North Forney and Royse City is a pretty safe bet on five teams together in 5A D1 next season. Who joins them is the question? If Sherman stays 5A, they're in with us. Do they move Hp to the DISD district since Woodrow Wilson is almost a lock to drop. Do they move Lancaster over to our district? Does Red Oak go East this time instead of going West?

Tons of questions for 5A D1.

5A D2's only real questions are does Jacksonville stay up (doubtful)? And what region will they be?

I wish there was a list somewhere they would show us all the new schools opening (and that will be apart of the next realignment) as that is going to have a tremendous affect on this go around for us.

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Found at least one list done by rtxc1 over on the 5A board...Not sure if this is complete or not.

Opening in 2021:
Comal Pieper (9-10)
Frisco Emerson (9-10)
Lamar Randle (9-10)

Opening in 2022:
Alvin Iowa Colony
Canyon West Plains
Frisco Panther Creek (9-11)
Fort Bend Crawford
Killeen Chaparral
New Caney HS #3
Northside Sotomayor

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19 minutes ago, LoboFan07 said:

https://www.6atexasfootball.com/forum/main-forum/team-threads/77-official-longview-lobo-thread-home-of-lobo-nation?p=599616#post599616

Just did a whole break down on the Lobo thread on 6A.

West Mesquite is sitting at 2,272, easily could be moving to 6A this go around with that.

Yep. That Mesquite ISD rezone changed up a lot in that district.

Horn became the largest school. It use to be North Mesquite who not so long ago had nearly 3,000 kids. Now they're down to 2400. Lot of North kids now zoned for West Mesquite.

Only school that wasnt much effected was Poteet.

Mesquite ISD is also opening up another school that'll decrease enrollment at all of the schools to some degree. A more larger version of RISE in Tyler.

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17 hours ago, JTFAN99 said:

according to TEA transfer (which all the students at Cumberland are transfer students since its a charter school)

of the 1961 students K-12, 1470 are from TISD. The next highest is 204 from Whitehouse ISD, then 82 from Chapel Hill.   

Let that sink in. 1470 came from Tisd. How big would Legacy and Tyler be if they were still in Tisd? Also count the kids from Rise and Early College. Throw in Tyler Classical Academy in the mix. I could see Legacy in the 3000 range and Tyler in 2500-2600 range.

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4 hours ago, LoboFan07 said:

5A D2's only real questions are does Jacksonville stay up (doubtful)?

Don’t forget Sulphur Springs. They are closer to the cutoff than Jacksonville. 

One or both of them dropping could drastically change the East Texas 5AD2 landscape.... especially with Royse City moving up.  

It could send Texas High and MP down the I-30 corridor to Greenville and Denison and NE metroplex schools. 

Or... it could send Nac south to Houston/Huntsville... or even west to Ennis/Corsicana. 

Marshall, Hallsville, PT, and maybe Whitehouse are the ones most probable to stay together.  We could go North or South.  And maybe even West.  

I hoping Jax and SS stay.... but it doesn’t seem likely.  Could definitely leave some of us in the lurch..... all depends how they address the I-30 corridor IMHO. 

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38 minutes ago, Mavchamp said:

Don’t forget Sulphur Springs. They are closer to the cutoff than Jacksonville. 

One or both of them dropping could drastically change the East Texas 5AD2 landscape.... especially with Royse City moving up.  

It could send Texas High and MP down the I-30 corridor to Greenville and Denison and NE metroplex schools. 

Or... it could send Nac south to Houston/Huntsville... or even west to Ennis/Corsicana. 

Marshall, Hallsville, PT, and maybe Whitehouse are the ones most probable to stay together.  We could go North or South.  And maybe even West.  

I hoping Jax and SS stay.... but it doesn’t seem likely.  Could definitely leave some of us in the lurch..... all depends how they address the I-30 corridor IMHO. 

I agree that Jax is one of the factors keeping Nac North. Jax moving widens the distance for Nac from other district schools. As long as Jacksonville stays 5A-2 they wont split Nac/Jax up. The drop for Jax would do it. Nac would go with Huntsville and Bryan/College St is what I think would happen. 

 

 

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58 minutes ago, Mavchamp said:

Don’t forget Sulphur Springs. They are closer to the cutoff than Jacksonville. 

One or both of them dropping could drastically change the East Texas 5AD2 landscape.... especially with Royse City moving up.  

It could send Texas High and MP down the I-30 corridor to Greenville and Denison and NE metroplex schools. 

Or... it could send Nac south to Houston/Huntsville... or even west to Ennis/Corsicana. 

Marshall, Hallsville, PT, and maybe Whitehouse are the ones most probable to stay together.  We could go North or South.  And maybe even West.  

I hoping Jax and SS stay.... but it doesn’t seem likely.  Could definitely leave some of us in the lurch..... all depends how they address the I-30 corridor IMHO. 

You're right, completely missed Sulphur Springs.

That would have an affect on other sports as well (though Longview, Texas High, Pine Tree, Marshall, Mount Pleasant and Hallsville probably just remains in one district). With Jacksonville likely dropping, they could bring Tyler/Whitehouse over with us and push Lufkin/Nac/Huntsville down to the Houston area in other sports, though unlikely.

Football wise, it could definitely completely shift things...especially depending how many of the new schools go to 5A D2.

You'd have to think Greenville isn't super far from the line either. They'd have to find schools to add to the Corsicana/Crandall/Ennis/Forney district for sure.

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27 minutes ago, JTFAN99 said:

It looks like Frisco will have a high school on every block in 10 yrs.

A long time ago, the higher ups there said they didnt want a Frisco school to touch 6A.

And they meant it. lol

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32 minutes ago, ANTI said:

A long time ago, the higher ups there said they didnt want a Frisco school to touch 6A.

And they meant it. lol

Crazy. They are going to spend an enormous amount of money on the upkeep and utilities of a new school just to prevent this.  

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6 hours ago, JTFAN99 said:

Crazy. They are going to spend an enormous amount of money on the upkeep and utilities of a new school just to prevent this.  

Lord knows they have the money in that city.

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10 hours ago, ANTI said:

A long time ago, the higher ups there said they didnt want a Frisco school to touch 6A.

And they meant it. lol

They dilute their talent pool too much.

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On 4/12/2021 at 9:00 AM, ANTI said:

What I have found interesting, is Longview ISD has grown to 9000 kids. 

That number was 8,575 in 2019.

FWIW, the TEA site doesn't have the district totals at 9k as of fall 2020, but Wilcox said the district had 9k on Monday.

https://www.ketk.com/news/local-news/all-longview-isd-students-back-on-campus-monday-after-ending-remote-learning-program/

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Snap shot day 2021 will be interesting post-Covid. Many districts have seen enrollment declines in the current year. Questions going forward:

1. Many districts are considering virtual offerings going forward. Will UIL allow those opting to continue virtual to participate?

2. How will virtual schools created for district residents be considered?

3. How will private (K-12)and public (Hallsville) statewide virtual schools impact enrollment in the future?

I suspect Covid will impact redistricting more than we know today.

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4 hours ago, Valhalla said:

They dilute their talent pool too much.

In my opinion, better for the kids. More can participate in UIL activities and learn teamwork skills. Personally feel 1750 to 2500 is ideal size to allow UIL participation and academic/vocational offerings.

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2 hours ago, ANTI said:

FWIW, the TEA site doesn't have the district totals at 9k as of fall 2020, but Wilcox said the district had 9k on Monday.

https://www.ketk.com/news/local-news/all-longview-isd-students-back-on-campus-monday-after-ending-remote-learning-program/

Wellllll, the numbers are *really* fuzzy right now, for a variety of reasons...  with different districts doing different things (RE: online/on-campus learning) you have a lot of kids who are "at LISD" but not really LISD kids.

Once the smaller districts started canceling their online options LISD saw a huge influx from the rural, outlying areas. Not to mention the volume of kids who've just completely fallen off the radar statewide. I happen to know of one Longview-area district who cannot currently "locate" hundreds of their pre-COVID students. 

I suspect our *real* numbers are much closer to that 8,575 from 2019, and likely a lot less (due to COVID). While we might have upwards of "9,000" kids floating around the district for the moment, I daresay few of them are permanent, long-term LISD students. 

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1 hour ago, bordertown said:

In my opinion, better for the kids. More can participate in UIL activities and learn teamwork skills. Personally feel 1750 to 2500 is ideal size to allow UIL participation and academic/vocational offerings.

I read an article that Liberty Hill is looking to add another high school in the next couple years, and even a third high school sometime around 2030. Their rationale being that they want to remain in that "sweet spot" of 1750-2500 students. 

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5 minutes ago, LOL said:

I read an article that Liberty Hill is looking to add another high school in the next couple years, and even a third high school sometime around 2030. Their rationale being that they want to remain in that "sweet spot" of 1750-2500 students. 

Aledo will definitely need to build another HS eventually, but I bet they take the Allen route instead and have one super school. Projected to have 4,000+ by 2030.

I forgot about the new school that just opened in Prosper ISD, Rock Hill. Propser will most certainly drop to 5A D1 too...with HS #3 in the works. Looks like they're following the Frisco model.

What I'm starting to see, depending on if a few teams avoid 6A (Wylie East, Longview, Sherman, West Mesquite etc)....the travel could be a lot better for many in 5A D1 next alignment compared to the current alignment. 5A D2 is who I see really suffering eventually. 

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6 minutes ago, ANTI said:

Aledo will definitely need to build another HS eventually, but I bet they take the Allen route instead and have one super school. Projected to have 4,000+ by 2030.

I forgot about the new school that just opened in Prosper ISD, Rock Hill. Propser will most certainly drop to 5A D1 too...with HS #3 in the works. Looks like they're following the Frisco model.

What I'm starting to see, depending on if a few teams avoid 6A (Wylie East, Longview, Sherman, West Mesquite etc)....the travel could be a lot better for many in 5A D1 next alignment compared to the current alignment. 5A D2 is who I see really suffering eventually. 

Man, it's crazy how fast parts of this state are blowing up. Crazy. 

I was in Denton last month and I didn't recognize it. I remember when it was a sleepy little college town. Now it's trying to be baby Austin. 

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51 minutes ago, LOL said:

Man, it's crazy how fast parts of this state are blowing up. Crazy. 

I was in Denton last month and I didn't recognize it. I remember when it was a sleepy little college town. Now it's trying to be baby Austin. 

I take that back about Prosper High. That place is growing so much, they'll still be a solid 6A.

But Rock Hill is most certainly moving up to 5A D1 at least. Had 2000+ in 2020. Up from 1798 in 2019.

That's why HS #3 is coming.

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2 hours ago, ANTI said:

I take that back about Prosper High. That place is growing so much, they'll still be a solid 6A.

But Rock Hill is most certainly moving up to 5A D1 at least. Had 2000+ in 2020. Up from 1798 in 2019.

That's why HS #3 is coming.

Yea, there's no way Prosper High drops.

Rock Hill could easily be 6A coming up, though I think they'll end up being one of the biggest 5A D1s instead.

It's insane the growth that's still happening. I still think Celina is posed to explode soon, especially being right next to Prosper.

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