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Mock Realignment projections 2014


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#1 cujoforlife

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Posted 16 May 2013 - 02:25 PM

This was post by member on the texas4asports.com board by Tom. A Denton Guyer Fan
 

 

 

I've put together a realignment projection for 2014 because the season doesn't start for three and a half months and we need something to talk about here.

Few notes before we begin:
-Obviously there's a lot of speculating with enrollments involved here. Basically, I've taken the TEA's enrollment numbers from October 2012 and compared them with the UIL enrollment numbers from October 2011 to get a sense of which direction schools are moving.
-The difficulties are predicting which schools will opt up to 6A (what's currently known as 5A) and, to a lesser extent, from 4A (the current 3A), as well as establishing the lower cutoff. Once we've established the upper end, the lower end should be about half that; I came up with 2100 as the upper end and used 1050 as the lower end, which means we get 247 schools. Some schools aren't currently within that range but are expected to be either due to growth at the low end, or because of current 5A districts opening new schools.
-I tried to balance the four regions in terms of the number of schools, so I've got 61 schools in Region 2 and 62 in each of the other three.

Subtractions from current 4A:
Moving up: Amarillo, Lubbock, Denton Guyer, Byron Nelson, Humble Summer Creek, Houston Reagan, Houston Stratford*, Houston Northbrook, Houston Spring Woods, Pearland Dawson, Leander Rouse, Buda Hays, Kyle Lehman, SA Brennan
Moving down: FW Dunbar*, Dallas Carter, Dallas Pinkston, Dallas Lincoln*, Greenville, Houston Wheatley, Freeport Brazosport, Floresville, Beeville Jones
Expected to close: Houston North Forest
*I'm assuming Stratford will opt up to 6A along with the other three schools in SBISD (Memorial, Spring Woods, Northbrook.) Dunbar and Lincoln have opted up in the past but I'm thinking they won't this year; Dunbar because FWISD would like to have a single district, Lincoln because of a couple of other DISD schools dropping down.

Additions
Moving down (from 5A): EP Bel Air, Abilene, Abilene Cooper, Mansfield Timberview, Temple, Longview, Rockwall-Heath, A&M Consolidated, Bryan, New Braunfels Canyon, Mission Sharyland, Donna, McAllen Rowe, PSJA, PSJA Memorial, PSJA North
Moving up (from 3A): Lubbock Cooper, Alvarado, Frisco Lone Star, Boerne, Somerset
New schools: College Station, Donna North, Sharyland Pioneer Memorial

REGION 1

District 1
Canutillo
El Paso
EP Andress
EP Austin
EP Bowie
EP Burges
EP Chapin
EP Irvin
EP Jefferson

District 2
Clint Horizon
EP Bel Air
EP Del Valle
EP Eastlake
EP Hanks
EP Parkland
EP Riverside
EP Ysleta
San Elizario

-El Paso is pretty easy to predict. With Bel Air likely dropping from 5A, you have 18 schools, the eight El Paso ISD schools all have to stay together, and Canutillo can easily move from District 2 to District 1 to make two nine-team districts.

District 3
Amarillo Caprock
Amarillo Palo Duro
Canyon
Canyon Randall
Dumas
Hereford
Plainview

District 4
Abilene
Abilene Cooper
Lubbock Cooper
Lubbock Monterey
San Angelo Lake View
Wolfforth Frenship

-Relatively easy to figure out with these schools, but this could be a nightmare if the Abilene schools don't drop. You could put the 10 Panhandle teams in one district, but then you'd have to do something with Lake View. Or you could send the two Wichita Falls schools west, but that's a LONG trip.

District 5
Denton
FW Boswell
FW Chisholm Trail
Lake Dallas
Saginaw
Wichita Falls
WF Rider

District 6
Aledo
Azle
Birdville
Crowley
Granbury
White Settlement Brewer

-Currently Fort Worth ISD is split into two districts, but I'm projecting them to go back to one district, so the other teams in those districts have to be shuffled around. Plus, the current 5-4A loses two of its schools with Denton Guyer and Byron Nelson both almost certain to move up to 6A.

District 7
FW Arlington Heights
FW Carter-Riverside
FW Eastern Hills
FW North Side
FW Poly
FW South Hills
FW Southwest
FW Trimble Tech
FW Western Hills
FW Wyatt

District 8
Alvarado
Burleson
Burleson Centennial
Cleburne
Joshua
Temple
Waco
Waco University

-Obviously, if FWISD is projected to have ten schools in 5A, they'll all be in a single district. Temple could just as easily be in an Austin-area district, though I suspect the UIL will keep them with the Waco schools; current 3A Alvarado's placement with the rest of Johnson County is rather obvious.

REGION 2

District 9
Carrollton Creekview
Carrollton Smith
Frisco
Frisco Centennial
Frisco Heritage
Frisco Liberty
Frisco Lone Star
Frisco Wakeland

District 10
Denison
Little Elm
Lucas Lovejoy
McKinney North
Prosper
Sherman
The Colony

-This is one of those situations where keeping all the schools in an ISD together is kind of annoying. It would make a lot more sense to split the Frisco schools, but that can't be done, so District 10 effectively has to "leapfrog" District 9.

District 11
Dallas Adamson
Dallas Kimball
Dallas Molina
Dallas Samuell
Dallas Seagoville
Dallas South Oak Cliff
Dallas Spruce

District 12
Dallas Adams
Dallas Conrad
Dallas Hillcrest
Dallas Jefferson
Dallas Wilson
Highland Park
North Dallas

-I am sure Highland Park will hate this alignment, but from a geographical standpoint it makes too much sense. The key question here is opt-ups, particularly with Lincoln and Carter, both of which have falling numbers but still could have too much pride to drop.

District 13
Arlington Seguin
Everman
Lancaster
Mansfield Lake Ridge
Mansfield Legacy
Mansfield Summit
Mansfield Timberview
Red Oak

District 14
Mount Pleasant
Rockwall-Heath
Royse City
Sulphur Springs
Texarkana Texas
Wylie
Wylie East

-With Timberview likely to drop, that means there's going to be a Mansfield-centered district. It's a bit of a drive from Everman to Lancaster and Red Oak, but moving to Region 2 won't be too bad on them. Texarkana is difficult to place but has to go somewhere; all of the schools in this district except the Wylie schools are right off I-30. And, yeah, I was sort of surprised by Rockwall-Heath's numbers, too.

District 15
Corsicana
Ennis
Forney
Mesquite Poteet
North Forney
Terrell
Waxahachie
West Mesquite

District 16
Hallsville
Jacksonville
Lindale
Longview
Longview Pine Tree
Marshall
Nacogdoches
Tyler
Whitehouse

-East Texas goes to a single district with Longview (likely) dropping, while Corsicana returns to a more DFW-oriented district that looks a lot like the 15-4A from 2010-11.

REGION 3

District 17
Cedar Park
CP Vista Ridge
Georgetown
Georgetown East View
Hutto
Leander
Leander Vandegrift
Marble Falls

District 18
A&M Consolidated
Brenham
Bryan
Bryan Rudder
College Station
Magnolia
Magnolia West
Waller

-Somebody more familiar with the traffic in the Austin area could probably better explain why the Leander ISD schools aren't currently with Georgetown and Hutto. The dropdowns of Bryan and AMC should lead to a Bryan/College Station-centered district, with Brenham an obvious addition; I'm projecting that district to go toward the Houston area, though it's also possible they could be paired with Temple and the Waco schools.

District 19
Conroe Caney Creek
Huntsville
Montgomery
New Caney
New Caney Porter
Tomball
Tomball Memorial
Willis

District 20
Barbers Hill
Baytown Goose Creek
Baytown Lee
Crosby
Dayton
Galena Park
Houston King
Humble
Humble Kingwood Park

-Some changes here; moving Brenham and a couple of NW suburban teams to the Bryan/CS district frees up a couple of spots in the current 18-4A, which can be filled by the New Caney schools. That allows the Baytown schools and Galena Park to go in a more natural alignment instead of to Galveston County.

District 21
Beaumont Central
Beaumont Ozen
Little Cypress-Mauriceville
Livingston
Lumberton
Nederland
Port Neches-Groves
Vidor

District 22
Houston Austin
Houston Davis
Houston Lee
Houston Milby
Houston Sharpstown
Houston Waltrip

-The only thing that changes with the current 20-4A is the number, though keep an eye on Port Arthur Memorial, which has declining numbers and would be a natural fit in this district. Houston ISD loses two schools, and who knows what will happen with North Forest -- the ISD is closing, but they're fighting it, and the high school might continue to operate as a part of HISD.

District 23
Bay City
Richmond Foster
Richmond George Ranch
Rosenberg Lamar Consolidated
Rosenberg Terry
Victoria East
Victoria West

District 24
Angleton
Fort Bend Marshall
Fort Bend Ridge Point
Fort Bend Willowridge
Friendswood
Galveston Ball
Santa Fe
Texas City

-The Victoria schools moving to Region 3 seems weird, but a bunch of extra Valley schools squeezed them out of R4, and there won't be much of a difference in terms of travel. With FBISD, watch the opt-ups; a couple of the current 5A schools have 4A numbers and could decide to drop down.

REGION 4

District 25
Austin Crockett
Austin Lanier
Austin LBJ
Austin McCallum
Austin Reagan
Austin Travis
Dripping Springs
Pflugerville Connally

District 26
Bastrop
Bastrop Cedar Creek
Elgin
Lockhart
Manor
New Braunfels Canyon
Schertz Clemens
Seguin

-Seriously, the Austin area confuses the hell out of me. That new tollway with the 85 mph speed limit seems to make it more plausible to send Elgin, Manor, Lockhart, and Bastrop down to Seguin, though. And, yeah, New Braunfels Canyon's numbers surprised me. Austin Reagan's enrollment is currently under 1050 but I suspect they'd opt up.

District 27
Alamo Heights
SA Brackenridge
SA Burbank
SA Edison
SA Highlands
SA Jefferson
SA Lanier

District 28
Boerne
Boerne Champion
Kerrville Tivy
SA Harlandale
SA Kennedy
SA McCollum
SA Memorial
SA Southside

-San Antonio ISD is another one of those districts that would be nice to be able to split up, since District 28 essentially has to leapfrog SAISD to go from Boerne and Kerrville to the southern half of San Antonio.

District 29
Laredo Cigarroa
Laredo Martin
Laredo Nixon
Medina Valley
Somerset
Uvalde

District 30
Alice
CC Calallen
CC Flour Bluff
CC Miller
CC Moody
CC Ray
CC Tuloso-Midway
Gregory-Portland
Port Lavaca Calhoun

-The Corpus schools will celebrate having the Laredo schools out of their district. Laredo ISD's travel doesn't change a lot here; it's just going in a different direction. One side effect of moving the Victoria schools to R3 is that you can create a single Corpus-area district, which almost has to be done because of the need for two Valley districts.

District 31
McAllen Rowe
Mission
Mission Veterans Memorial
Pharr Valley View
Rio Grande City
Roma
Sharyland
Sharyland Pioneer Memorial

District 32
Donna
Donna North
Edcouch-Elsa
Mercedes
PSJA
PSJA Memorial
PSJA North
PSJA Southwest

-There sure are a lot of schools in the Valley with "Memorial" in the name. I'm assuming the other three PSJA schools will drop as Southwest fills out, and everything I've heard says Donna and Sharyland will drop. Keep an eye on the Edinburg schools, some of the Brownsville schools, and Harlingen South, as well; some of their numbers look oddly low right now.

Okay. That's it, finally. Discuss away.

Read more: http://texas4asports...5#ixzz2TUNUhGCK

 


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#2 gtee2

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Posted 16 May 2013 - 02:37 PM

Does "tyler" represent JT and Lee?
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#3 FONZ

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Posted 16 May 2013 - 02:50 PM

This guy came up with 2100 as the potential lower limit cutoff for 6A..and figures Longview will drop? Doubt it. We're currently 100+ kids above 2100. Normally graduate around 500 or so and bring in a freshman class of 780-790 (although this last freshman class clipped over 800). You do the math.

Anyway..Padilla (who is hardly ever wrong) is predicting the lower limits of 6A being 2190-2200. I'm sticking with that.
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#4 cujoforlife

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Posted 16 May 2013 - 02:57 PM

Does "tyler" represent JT and Lee?

John Tyler


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#5 KirtFalcon

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Posted 16 May 2013 - 04:33 PM

This guy came up with 2100 as the potential lower limit cutoff for 6A..and figures Longview will drop? Doubt it. We're currently 100+ kids above 2100. Normally graduate around 500 or so and bring in a freshman class of 780-790 (although this last freshman class clipped over 800). You do the math.

Anyway..Padilla (who is hardly ever wrong) is predicting the lower limits of 6A being 2190-2200. I'm sticking with that.

 

Do you have a link to Padilla's data?


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#6 FONZ

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Posted 16 May 2013 - 05:15 PM

 

Do you have a link to Padilla's data?

Ultimately, you'll have to subscribe to padillapoll to get the most out of him. But I did find a helpful link.

http://scores.psquar...ment_breaks.htm


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#7 LoboFan07

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Posted 16 May 2013 - 06:06 PM

Just can't see them creating one "East Texas" district with 9 teams, but leaving Texas High/Mount Pleasant/Sulphur Springs out of it and sending them to the Metroplex.

 

I wouldn't be shocked if Longview/Lufkin dropped, but it's going to be in two separate districts if they do it (like it has been imo). Definitely would be fun and interesting to me though (I know some in Longview have no desire to play more local teams but I just find playing new teams and going to new stadiums interesting so yea).


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LONGVIEW LOBO HISTORY


THE LONGVIEW LOBOS
1937 1A STATE CHAMPIONS
1997 5A Division I - 2008 4A Division I - 2009 4A Division I State Finalist
1947, 1975, 2010 State Semi-Finalist
1940, 1986, 1996, 2002, 2007 State Quarterfinalist
2004, 2011, 2012, 2013 Regional Finalist
1983, 1985, 1987, 1989, 1991, 1993, 2001, 2006 Area Finalist

1927 Bi-District Champions
1924, 1931, 1934, 1936, 1942, 1967, 1972, 1974, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1992, 2003, 2005 Bi-District Finalists
1924, 1927, 1931, 1934, 1936, 1937, 1940, 1947, 1958, 1959, 1967, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1980, 1983, 1984, 1985,
1987, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1997, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013 District Champions


#8 KirtFalcon

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Posted 16 May 2013 - 07:12 PM

Why no Div II for 5A and 6A?


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#9 gtee2

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Posted 16 May 2013 - 08:50 PM

I would love to play in PT's new stadium! Just dont know if I wanna play PT...
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#10 LoboFan07

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Posted 16 May 2013 - 08:53 PM

Why no Div II for 5A and 6A?

 

It's coming eventually. We're basically going to have 14 (7A is no doubt an eventuality imo) different classes in the future. Just a matter of time.


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LONGVIEW LOBO HISTORY


THE LONGVIEW LOBOS
1937 1A STATE CHAMPIONS
1997 5A Division I - 2008 4A Division I - 2009 4A Division I State Finalist
1947, 1975, 2010 State Semi-Finalist
1940, 1986, 1996, 2002, 2007 State Quarterfinalist
2004, 2011, 2012, 2013 Regional Finalist
1983, 1985, 1987, 1989, 1991, 1993, 2001, 2006 Area Finalist

1927 Bi-District Champions
1924, 1931, 1934, 1936, 1942, 1967, 1972, 1974, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1992, 2003, 2005 Bi-District Finalists
1924, 1927, 1931, 1934, 1936, 1937, 1940, 1947, 1958, 1959, 1967, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1980, 1983, 1984, 1985,
1987, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1997, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013 District Champions


#11 FONZ

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Posted 16 May 2013 - 09:33 PM

I know some in Longview have no desire to play more local teams but I just find playing new teams and going to new stadiums interesting so yea).

I love playing new teams and going to different stadiums. Just don't like cupcakes..and East Texas 4A (or new 5A) isn't exactly the strongest thing around at the moment.

And you already know how I feel about the x-files creatures that is bugs in East Texas.
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#12 FONZ

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Posted 16 May 2013 - 09:34 PM

Why no Div II for 5A and 6A?

No reason to have it. Plano East gets beat every year..
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#13 LoboFan07

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Posted 16 May 2013 - 09:56 PM

I love playing new teams and going to different stadiums. Just don't like cupcakes..and East Texas 4A (or new 5A) isn't exactly the strongest thing around at the moment.

And you already know how I feel about the x-files creatures that is bugs in East Texas.

 

Wasn't specifically talking about you lol. Just in general! Definitely understand though.


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LONGVIEW LOBO HISTORY


THE LONGVIEW LOBOS
1937 1A STATE CHAMPIONS
1997 5A Division I - 2008 4A Division I - 2009 4A Division I State Finalist
1947, 1975, 2010 State Semi-Finalist
1940, 1986, 1996, 2002, 2007 State Quarterfinalist
2004, 2011, 2012, 2013 Regional Finalist
1983, 1985, 1987, 1989, 1991, 1993, 2001, 2006 Area Finalist

1927 Bi-District Champions
1924, 1931, 1934, 1936, 1942, 1967, 1972, 1974, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1992, 2003, 2005 Bi-District Finalists
1924, 1927, 1931, 1934, 1936, 1937, 1940, 1947, 1958, 1959, 1967, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1980, 1983, 1984, 1985,
1987, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1997, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013 District Champions


#14 kingwolf

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 06:42 AM

Would love to see an all east tex district again...it is also nice to not be the smallest kid on the block in the playoffs

#15 KirtFalcon

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 06:59 AM

 

It's coming eventually. We're basically going to have 14 (7A is no doubt an eventuality imo) different classes in the future. Just a matter of time.

 

I agree, the UIL loves them some additional $$$$ it would bring. 


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#16 bordertown

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 07:08 AM

Rockwall Heath & the Wylie schools would enjoy being in a district with Texarkana.  While we still have 5 months to "snap shot day", I would see Tyler JT and Texas High being flipped. 



#17 cujoforlife

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 07:18 AM

Rockwall Heath & the Wylie schools would enjoy being in a district with Texarkana.  While we still have 5 months to "snap shot day", I would see Tyler JT and Texas High being flipped. 


That is if they meet in the second round.
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#18 FONZ

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 07:20 AM

I would love to play in PT's new stadium! Just dont know if I wanna play PT...

Saw pics of it's progress. Gonna be a big playoff spot in West Longview.
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#19 FONZ

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 07:22 AM

Rockwall Heath & the Wylie schools would enjoy being in a district with Texarkana.  While we still have 5 months to "snap shot day", I would see Tyler JT and Texas High being flipped. 

Heath has low enrollment..but I doubt they drop. I think they'll get the cutoff but barely. Freshman classes and move ins always boost suburban cities.
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#20 btex

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 07:51 AM

If Somerset moves up then Pleasanton, La Vernia, and San Antonio Houston will all move up, all have over 1050 right now.






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