This was post by member on the texas4asports.com board by Tom. A Denton Guyer Fan
Few notes before we begin:
-Obviously there's a lot of speculating with enrollments involved here. Basically, I've taken the TEA's enrollment numbers from October 2012 and compared them with the UIL enrollment numbers from October 2011 to get a sense of which direction schools are moving.
-The difficulties are predicting which schools will opt up to 6A (what's currently known as 5A) and, to a lesser extent, from 4A (the current 3A), as well as establishing the lower cutoff. Once we've established the upper end, the lower end should be about half that; I came up with 2100 as the upper end and used 1050 as the lower end, which means we get 247 schools. Some schools aren't currently within that range but are expected to be either due to growth at the low end, or because of current 5A districts opening new schools.
-I tried to balance the four regions in terms of the number of schools, so I've got 61 schools in Region 2 and 62 in each of the other three.
Subtractions from current 4A:
Moving up: Amarillo, Lubbock, Denton Guyer, Byron Nelson, Humble Summer Creek, Houston Reagan, Houston Stratford*, Houston Northbrook, Houston Spring Woods, Pearland Dawson, Leander Rouse, Buda Hays, Kyle Lehman, SA Brennan
Moving down: FW Dunbar*, Dallas Carter, Dallas Pinkston, Dallas Lincoln*, Greenville, Houston Wheatley, Freeport Brazosport, Floresville, Beeville Jones
Expected to close: Houston North Forest
*I'm assuming Stratford will opt up to 6A along with the other three schools in SBISD (Memorial, Spring Woods, Northbrook.) Dunbar and Lincoln have opted up in the past but I'm thinking they won't this year; Dunbar because FWISD would like to have a single district, Lincoln because of a couple of other DISD schools dropping down.
Moving down (from 5A): EP Bel Air, Abilene, Abilene Cooper, Mansfield Timberview, Temple, Longview, Rockwall-Heath, A&M Consolidated, Bryan, New Braunfels Canyon, Mission Sharyland, Donna, McAllen Rowe, PSJA, PSJA Memorial, PSJA North
Moving up (from 3A): Lubbock Cooper, Alvarado, Frisco Lone Star, Boerne, Somerset
New schools: College Station, Donna North, Sharyland Pioneer Memorial
EP Bel Air
EP Del Valle
-El Paso is pretty easy to predict. With Bel Air likely dropping from 5A, you have 18 schools, the eight El Paso ISD schools all have to stay together, and Canutillo can easily move from District 2 to District 1 to make two nine-team districts.
Amarillo Palo Duro
San Angelo Lake View
-Relatively easy to figure out with these schools, but this could be a nightmare if the Abilene schools don't drop. You could put the 10 Panhandle teams in one district, but then you'd have to do something with Lake View. Or you could send the two Wichita Falls schools west, but that's a LONG trip.
FW Chisholm Trail
White Settlement Brewer
-Currently Fort Worth ISD is split into two districts, but I'm projecting them to go back to one district, so the other teams in those districts have to be shuffled around. Plus, the current 5-4A loses two of its schools with Denton Guyer and Byron Nelson both almost certain to move up to 6A.
FW Arlington Heights
FW Eastern Hills
FW North Side
FW South Hills
FW Trimble Tech
FW Western Hills
-Obviously, if FWISD is projected to have ten schools in 5A, they'll all be in a single district. Temple could just as easily be in an Austin-area district, though I suspect the UIL will keep them with the Waco schools; current 3A Alvarado's placement with the rest of Johnson County is rather obvious.
Frisco Lone Star
-This is one of those situations where keeping all the schools in an ISD together is kind of annoying. It would make a lot more sense to split the Frisco schools, but that can't be done, so District 10 effectively has to "leapfrog" District 9.
Dallas South Oak Cliff
-I am sure Highland Park will hate this alignment, but from a geographical standpoint it makes too much sense. The key question here is opt-ups, particularly with Lincoln and Carter, both of which have falling numbers but still could have too much pride to drop.
Mansfield Lake Ridge
-With Timberview likely to drop, that means there's going to be a Mansfield-centered district. It's a bit of a drive from Everman to Lancaster and Red Oak, but moving to Region 2 won't be too bad on them. Texarkana is difficult to place but has to go somewhere; all of the schools in this district except the Wylie schools are right off I-30. And, yeah, I was sort of surprised by Rockwall-Heath's numbers, too.
Longview Pine Tree
-East Texas goes to a single district with Longview (likely) dropping, while Corsicana returns to a more DFW-oriented district that looks a lot like the 15-4A from 2010-11.
CP Vista Ridge
Georgetown East View
-Somebody more familiar with the traffic in the Austin area could probably better explain why the Leander ISD schools aren't currently with Georgetown and Hutto. The dropdowns of Bryan and AMC should lead to a Bryan/College Station-centered district, with Brenham an obvious addition; I'm projecting that district to go toward the Houston area, though it's also possible they could be paired with Temple and the Waco schools.
Conroe Caney Creek
New Caney Porter
Baytown Goose Creek
Humble Kingwood Park
-Some changes here; moving Brenham and a couple of NW suburban teams to the Bryan/CS district frees up a couple of spots in the current 18-4A, which can be filled by the New Caney schools. That allows the Baytown schools and Galena Park to go in a more natural alignment instead of to Galveston County.
-The only thing that changes with the current 20-4A is the number, though keep an eye on Port Arthur Memorial, which has declining numbers and would be a natural fit in this district. Houston ISD loses two schools, and who knows what will happen with North Forest -- the ISD is closing, but they're fighting it, and the high school might continue to operate as a part of HISD.
Richmond George Ranch
Rosenberg Lamar Consolidated
Fort Bend Marshall
Fort Bend Ridge Point
Fort Bend Willowridge
-The Victoria schools moving to Region 3 seems weird, but a bunch of extra Valley schools squeezed them out of R4, and there won't be much of a difference in terms of travel. With FBISD, watch the opt-ups; a couple of the current 5A schools have 4A numbers and could decide to drop down.
Bastrop Cedar Creek
New Braunfels Canyon
-Seriously, the Austin area confuses the hell out of me. That new tollway with the 85 mph speed limit seems to make it more plausible to send Elgin, Manor, Lockhart, and Bastrop down to Seguin, though. And, yeah, New Braunfels Canyon's numbers surprised me. Austin Reagan's enrollment is currently under 1050 but I suspect they'd opt up.
-San Antonio ISD is another one of those districts that would be nice to be able to split up, since District 28 essentially has to leapfrog SAISD to go from Boerne and Kerrville to the southern half of San Antonio.
CC Flour Bluff
Port Lavaca Calhoun
-The Corpus schools will celebrate having the Laredo schools out of their district. Laredo ISD's travel doesn't change a lot here; it's just going in a different direction. One side effect of moving the Victoria schools to R3 is that you can create a single Corpus-area district, which almost has to be done because of the need for two Valley districts.
Mission Veterans Memorial
Pharr Valley View
Rio Grande City
Sharyland Pioneer Memorial
-There sure are a lot of schools in the Valley with "Memorial" in the name. I'm assuming the other three PSJA schools will drop as Southwest fills out, and everything I've heard says Donna and Sharyland will drop. Keep an eye on the Edinburg schools, some of the Brownsville schools, and Harlingen South, as well; some of their numbers look oddly low right now.
Okay. That's it, finally. Discuss away.
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