QUOTE (sonoman24 @ Oct 8 2009, 01:47 PM)

Okay...I was willing to give you a bit more credit in the reading comprehension department but you've now proved you don't deserve it. I'm not insulted by the stats you provide, I'm insulted that you rely on stats alone to judge the effectiveness of a football player. If this were baseball, you and I would be on the same side of this argument. Football, though, is all about heart and determination. If it were all about stats, we could just all bet on the teams with the best stats every week and quit our day jobs.
I'm assuming, since you referenced KC Joyner's research earlier, that you are into fantasy football. Is that why you are so into stats as a predictor of success in football? If my assumption is correct, can we not delineate between fantasy football and what actually takes place on Sundays? Romo can be the statistical leader in every category, but if he's not accurate at crunch time or is careless with the ball, does that not concern you as a fan?
My argument is not about stats and how they might/might not correlate to potential success in football. My argument, going back to last year, has been that stats don't amount to squat unless they are accompanied by victories.
It's that plain and simple.
1) If you've agreed with me that "heart" cannot be quantified, it wouldn't exactly be logical to throw out an actual source of empirical evidence of a player or team's ability. So why not trust in what facts you have?
2) If you know from analysis that Romo is, just an example, the 10th best quarterback in the league. You then could also know that over time, a quarterback will generally produce "in the clutch" about what he normally produces. We can then logically see how sticking with a good quarterback, even if he's "failed" in some important games, can be better odds than whomever the backup guy is. We've seen this play out many, many times.
If you want a QB that is "clutch" in the playoffs, even if he's not so good during the regular season, you would want Rex Grossman. There's problably a reason no one really wants him though, despite some of his really good playoff games.
3) I don't play fantasy football. Sorry. I'm interested in KC Joyner because I'm interested in logical deduction of a fundemental truth, or the closest I can get to it. Just like Sabermetrics in baseball.
4) There's plenty of stats that don't correlate to victories, like passing yards. Completion percentage. So yes, you'd be right at these; they don't matter if they don't predict victories.
But they're are stats that do correlate to a higher percentage of victories. One is Yards Per Attempt. Another is Passer Rating/Defensive Passer Rating.
You've probably heard all your life that teams run to win, but in the NFL it's no longer true. The teams that win most are the teams that pass well and defend the pass well.