Take them for what they are worth.

17
Rivercrest
Celeste
Cumby
Detroit
Melissa
Boles Home
Alba-Golden

18
Ore City
Union Grove
Big Sandy
Union Hill
Harleton
Maud
James Bowie

19
Waskom
Karnack
Beckville
Cushing
Carlisle
Mt. Enterprise
Overton

20
Joaquin
Tenaha
Garrison
West Sabine
Shelbyville
Timpson
Alto

21
Grapeland
Kerens
Cross Roads
Leon
Mart
Cayuga

22
Covington
Dallas I Am Academy
Dawson
Frost
Hubbard
Rice
Wortham

23
Groveton
Iola
Lovelady
Normangee
Oakwood
Chester

24
Colmesneil
West Hardin
Burkeville
Evadale
High Island
Hull-Daisetta
Sabine Pass

Ore City is going to drop?

18 A would be a monster. UG and Ore City are pretty good 2 A's. Harleton and Big Sandy are perennial powers. UH is always decent. Getting rid of Karnack would make this the strongest class A district in the state.

Please remember the disclaimer. Take these predictions for what they're worth. :cool:

carlisle and overton would prob stay in the same district

I don't know. The UIL has done stranger things. :shrug:

Duderino

Under Colmesneilsfans "proposed" alignment, how can you say 18a would be the toughest? Look at 21a with Kerens, Mart, Grapeland, Leon. Look at 20a with Timpson, Garrison, Alto, West Sabine. That is where the power is.:smileybanger:

Celmesneilfan

Don't you think Tenaha would be in the same district as Joequin, Timpson, Garrison since they are all on 59 close to each other? And Cushing is only about 25 mins from Alto. But, this is the UIL we're talking about here.:coocoo:

I think the 1a cutoff will be 199, judging by how they've done in the past, but that's just me.

The wildcard this year in determining the number is the fact that 3 teams will go to the playoffs and 2 champions will be crowned. The UIL will HAVE to fill 32 districts. In my opinion, that will drive the number up to the 210 to 215 range.

There are also several new schools that must be factored into the realignment.

what about Central Heights for basketball?

18A would be a cupcake district compared to 20A or 21A

I agree. IF it were to actually turn out this way, 20 and 21 would be the toughest districts in the state.

I was thinking top to bottom when I said 18 would be the toughest. While I see Alto or Garrison potentially winning state in class A (i'm not so sure they will drop though) that district still has Carlisle, Tenaha, and Shelbyville. 3 easy wins. The only easy win in 18 will be Maud.
In 18 You have 2 teams that have a shot at winning state this year (Harleton and Big Sandy), Union Grove, and Ore City who are solid 2A's. And Union Hill, who waould have won most districts last year.
I think that 20 and 21 will be the toughest at the top, but I looked at overall. These would be 3 wickedly tough districts, no doubt. I don't know enough about the proposed district 21 to really speak intelligently. I know that Kerens and Mart are good but the others I haven't followed.

CHANGE: Move Carlisle to 19 and Joaquin to 20. Due to location.

Now that would be a killer district!

Since Central Heights has a current enrollment of 215, then I'm predicting the cutoff will be 214 or less.

Read on txpreps.com that Mart turned in 217. Looks like they will one of the smallest 2a's again next realignment.

If all those folks drop to Class A, Who will be left in AA....

Number won't be higher than 198. Certainly won't be higher than 200-- timpson/Garrison both turned in over 200.

District 20A will probably be this

Joaquin
Mt. Enterprise
Tenaha
Carlisle
Beckville
Cushing

21A

Alto
Grapeland
Groveton
Oakwood
Lovelady

19A

Harleton
Overton
Bowie
Maud
Karnack
Union Hill

Where does Big Sandy go?

They were in different districts for at least two years not too long ago. It makes sense for Carlisle and Overton to be in the same district, but the UIL has a reputation of making numb skulled decisions so nothing will suprise me here.

allbig8, you left Big Sandy out of your scenario. This is how I see it:


21A

Bowie
Maud
Karnack
Union Hill
Harleton
Big Sandy

20A

Joaquin
Tenaha
Overton
Carlisle
Beckville
Mt. Enterprise

19A

Alto
Grapeland
Groveton
Oakwood
Lovelady
Cushing

I think Big Sandy is very much on the AA bubble.... If the numbers stay they'll go up.. If they go up to 200, then BS is Class A

timpson turned in 202, garrison 202, shelbyville is around the 215 mark havent heard official word from them yet. do not think these teams will make it. west sabine will, grapeland will, alto will. do not know about those up north.

I really do believe that the top number for Class A will be 210. Just a hunch, not backed by any facts or evidence whatsoever.

Well if the number is that high that you will have to put Hawkins in there somewhere because they turned in 199.5

I really hope Garrison stays in the AA classification. They schedule at least a couple of AAA nondistrict games each year and have more than held their own against them. Dropping down to class A would hurt their prgram in my opinion.
:whistle::whistle:

They can opt to stay in 2A with A numbers if they want. The UIL WILL allow a school to play up a class if they want to.

I doubt Garrison would do that . . . I would just hate to see them playing the likes of Mt Enterprise, Cushing and Beckville again!

If the numbers even move up to 199 that will move Crawford back into 1A (192 to date) and they are 10-0 in 2A now. Would they fit
into 18,19,20?

I'm going to redo the list next week as more numbers are coming in.

I think Garrison turned in 203. What about Jauquin?

Garrison turned in 202. Another site has Joaquin at 185, but I haven't been able to get that verified as of yet.

Joaquin 186

Look for 210 - 214.

Also, look for the stock of 1A football to go WAY up with these new teams coming in.

Last but not least, Please don't put up a post asking where Big Sandy can go where Harleton fans can respond!!!!:evil2:

A drop to 1A for Garrison will mean a big time cut in my gas expense.

I think it is going to be 199-below for 1a cutoff. Several 2a schools will be going up like Celina, Prosper, Argyle, ect. So if a bunch drop, then what will be left for 2a? With 199-below, their will be a lot of 5-6 team districts with the other slots filled up by the basketball/baseball schools only. But hey, that's jsut me:coolio:

Last but not least, Please don't put up a post asking where Big Sandy can go where Harleton fans can respond!!!!:evil2: [/quote]

Ok there, be nice....at least for THIS week!!! LOL j/k:tongue:

NEW PREDICTIONS AS OF 1-4-06


17 Blue Ridge
Rivercrest
Celeste
Cumby
Detroit
Alba-Golden


18 Karnack
Big Sandy
Union Hill
Hawkins
Maud
James Bowie
Ore City


19 Oakwood
Cross Roads
Kerens
Rice
Wortham
Cayuga


20 Covington
Dawson
Frost
Hubbard
Italy
Crawford


21 Alto
Beckville
Cushing
Carlisle
Mt. Enterprise
Overton
West Rusk


22 Colmesneil
Burkeville
Chester
Tenaha
West Sabine
Joaquin


23 Grapeland
Groveton
Iola
Lovelady
Normangee
Bremond



24 Abundant Life
West Hardin
Evadale
High Island
Hull-Daisetta
Sabine Pass



Let's hear your thoughts on this new set of predictions.

Garrison is 201.5

I put the new cutoff at 199.5

Harleton turned in 209.

What about Fruitvale??

Is Fruitvale playing football? What about Teneha turning in 96, is that right, that's kinda hard to believe. I can't see them playing 6-man, they used to be awesome.

They are still pretty good. I don't think that they'll play 6 man, though.

I like that one better Neil...... Tenaha will not play 6 man... ever.... too much Pride to go there.. Numbers suffer, but they'll compete just fine as long as the Class A number stays at 200 or below.

Didn't West Rusk turn in over 220.

17a

I have a question about 17a. Where is Boles, Wolfe City, and Melissa? Those 3 are in that same area as those. Adding them 3 would give 9, maybe that area gets broken up into 2 districts.

Buzzard

I heard West Rusk was in the 190's for #'s

I think 199.5 is right on the money.

Any thoughts as to the top end of AA?

I think that Melissa will be over the Class A number next season if I'm not mistaken. I had heard that somewhere. I put Boles and Wolfe City in Region II. Like I said, it's not perfect. :coocoo: