The guys at TexasPrepXtra do a good job on forecasting the UIL Realignment. Our two sites share information, and they sent this article to post on Smoaky.com.

Smoaky

LOOKING AT 4A REALIGNMENT NEWS:

WILD RUMOR CENTRAL:
Okay we hear some interesting rumors from time to time so we will put them in a section clearly marked RUMOR because it is not fact. We are not saying these are true but they are the most interesting rumors we here.

Wild Rumor of the Week # 1- The UIL will not realign due to a lawsuit that might be filed. According to this rumor some ISD's with new schools opening up are contemplating a lawsuit to keep the districts as is with the new schools adding on to the current alignment.

Oh here we go again, listen the realignment will go through one way or another. They have to; there will be a lot of new teams out there that requires changes. Though the UIL would be skittish of any lawsuit I just can't see this happening. First off this would start a flurry of lawsuits that would be never ending. Schools that are in 5A and should drop to 4A could sue because they want to move down in classification, and those schools in bad configurations like Spring ISD, might sue for a realignment to shorten their district visits. Nah, mark this one down as THE WILD RUMOR OF THE WEEK! More will pop up as February nears.

WHERE THE TOP NUMBER IS AT FOR 4A
5A has 245 schools per UIL and we researched and got the top 245 schools with enrollment and opt ups. That made the bottom number for 5A 1976 for The Colony. That means the top number for 4A is 1975 which is what we have been told Highland Park turned in. Now for the conspiracy theorists out there, go to your kitchen, open the pantry, get out the tinfoil and make your hat, DON'T MAKE IT TOO TIGHT. Now go out to the fields and do your best, we have heard them all already. Seriously for anyone who might go down this line, the number is where it is at and the chips fall where they may. There are always going to be those borderline schools. If Laredo ISD did not opt schools up then HP would be in 5A. However, if you can make a conspiracy theory involving Mulder and Scully, alien abductions, The UIL, Highland Park, the Cigarette Smoking Man and MORE COWBELL, then e-mail me at texasprepxtra@aol.com.

WHERE THE BOTTOM NUMBER IS AT FOR 4A
This is where things get tough. There is no set number for 4A, so they can go to 260 schools or 160. Figure that the number is somewhere in between. So how we figured out the number is figure that the bottom number is south of 1000. You set the districts from that number and see where you have holes in the districts. Then you keep on adding teams until those holes are filled. Figure that 900 would be the very bottom possible number. With schools opting up in DISD, HISD, FWISD, etc. and those over 1000 students you get 218 schools, a nice number. The problem districts look to be in the current 4-4A and 28-4A where you have a numbers problem unless you want to combine a couple of districts. Thus if you go down to Lubbock Estacado (975) and Fredricksburg (971.5) you seem to solve those problems. Thus for now we are calling the bottom number of 4A at 971.5.

5A MOVING DOWN TO 4A
We are currently projecting 16 teams to be moving from 5A to 4A in the next realignment. All of these schools turned in numbers below the 1976 cutoff number.

1960 -Corpus Christi Moody
1959.5 -Copperas Cove
1946 -Belton
1921.5 -Keller Fossil Ridge
1919 -Austin Crockett
1908 -Buda Hays
1860 -Houston Austin
1850 -Eagle Pass
1850 -San Antonio Jefferson
1843 -Huntsville
1831 -Waco
1808 -Dallas Samuell
1755 -Schertz Clemens
1371 -Corpus Christi Miller
1805.5 -Saginaw Boswell
1863 -Denton Ryan

Denton Ryan, Saginaw Boswell, Schertz Clemens, and Eagle Pass go down to 4A with the opening of new schools in their district.

Dallas Samuell, CC Miller, CC Moody, Houston Austin are in districts that they will not be opted up to 5A.

The rest are schools that lost enrollment totals for one reason or the other.

4A BE AFRAID, BE VERY AFRAID
Go back and look at that list, you have Denton Ryan, Schertz Clemens, Waco High, and Copperas Cove moving into 4A. Those are strong 5A teams and look to be wrecking havoc in the current 4A structure. The central Texas area for Class 4A looks to be very strong the next two seasons.

NEW SCHOOLS OPENING IN 4A-

Like in Class 5A there is an impressive list of coaches at the new schools. Saginaw, Seven Lakes and Heath all pulled in big name coaches from the state.

Eagle Pass New- unknown
Buda Lehman- Steve Davis
Schertz Steele- unknown
Denton Guyer- John Walsh comes in from Brownwood where he was assistant HC, OC and assistant AD.
Saginaw- Mike Lebby is the head coach formerly of Andrews and Granbury

Katy Seven Lakes- Kevin O'Keefe former HC at Fort Bend Hightower
McKinney Boyd- unknown
Rockwall Heath- Tam Hollingshead formerly of Temple, Texas A&M and the little SWC

3A SCHOOLS MOVING UP TO 4A
There looks to be only four schools moving from 3A into 4A from our current thinking on how 4A will look. Only one school, Little Elm, tops the 1000 student barrier. Manor and Huffman Hargrave look to make it easily into 4A while there might be a chance Lindale does not make it in.

1010 - Little Elm
992 - Manor
989 - Huffman Hargrave
975 - Lindale

FOUR MORE WHO MIGHT MAKE IT
For these schools to get in the UIL would really want to pack schools into Class 4A and that is a possibility. So consider these schools as saying their nightly prayers that the UIL does not do that.

963 - Barbers Hill
916 - Abilene Wylie
914 - Kennedale
907.5 - Palestine

4A GOING TO 3A: NO MORE SMALL TEAM IN THE AREA FOR THEM!
These schools are going to 3A in our estimation. The biggest drops will be Fabens and Clint. Clint actually has a shot for going to 2A but I doubt that happens. Either way both schools will have a better chance to be competitive.


960 - Elgin
947.5 - Burkburnett
947 - Athens
944.5 - Pleasanton
908.5 - Castroville Medina Valley
906 - Andrews
896 - Mabank
881 - Taylor
758 - Fabens
491 - Clint

LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD TO 2008
Here are some schools that we think will become 4A in 2008 because of population growth in their area.

Hutto- they were at 517 two years ago, last year at 629 and over 700 this year. This area of Austin is booming they will be solid 4A next time.

Carrollton Ranchview- only has 722 this time around but this school is in a district with all 5A schools so they should continue the population growth.

Royse City- 674.5 two years ago, 829.5 this time, that is 150 students in two years with 100 students added this past year. Add an average 75 students for the next two years and you have 4A numbers.

Stafford- 759 two years ago, 775 last year, and 841 this year. So they added 66 students this year. If they do that two more years then they have 4A numbers.

Splendora- Added 63 students this past year to go to 850 total, in two years at that growth rate you have 976 students.

Zapata- added 47.5 students to get to 857.5. Two more years of that growth and they are at the border with 952.5

Barbers Hill- had 826 two years ago, has 963 now, that puts them at 1100 next time around.

Abilene Wylie- had 854 two years ago, now has 916. Puts them at 978 in two years.

Kennedale- had 843 two years ago, 866 last year now has 914. That puts them at 1010 if they add on like they did this past year.

NEW SCHOOLS NEXT TIME AROUND
These schools are currently projected for 4A numbers in 2008 if they open on time.

Frisco Wakeland
Alvin Manvel
Comal Canyon Lake
Mangolia West
Mansfield Legacy
Leander # 4 NEW
Round Rock NEW

This article was a calibration of all of the TexasPrepXtra.com staff including Alan Zepeda, Matt Diggs, Matt Stepp, Jeff Howe, Jeremy Grothue, Billy Lenoir, and everyone else. All newspapers are given permission to run this as long as we are credited with being the source.

WHATS YOUR THOUGHTS ABOUT THEM 3-A DIVISION 2 STATE CHAMPS FROM TATUM. 3A OR 2A you thoughts smoaky:clap:

"Denton Ryan, Saginaw Boswell, Schertz Clemens, and Eagle Pass go down to 4A with the opening of new schools in their district."

Buda Hays also goes down in classification due to the opening of new crosstown high school Buda Lehman.

Wow! Class 4-A is going to be fun to follow through the coming years. This re-classification/realignment will greatly effect my area, Comal County/Central Texas. There is talk about New Braunfels High going back to 5-A. The two schools in nearby Schertz (Clemens and Steele) will probably be grouped into 4-A. With the population boom out here, Comal ISD is building a new high school near Canyon Lake (scheduled to open in '07). When Canyon Lake High opens, it will draw much of its student population from Smithson Valley High, which may be enough to drop Smithson Valley to 4-A. Imagine that! And the talk of the town is that SV has a group of sophomores (football) which are rumored to be the most talented group of athletes this school has even seen. Hays ISD just finished constructing a beautiful high school near Kyle, Lehman High School.

Yep, high school football is gonna be exciting for years to come in the Centex.

Reported 395 losing very few. Soph. QB coming back along with most of offensive line and the ET mvp on offense.
losing very few on other side of ball. It would be brutal to drop them to 2a or draw the line at 400.