There are still about 30 teams we have to track down just to be sure but we are starting to get a picture on where we think the 3A numbers might be. Here is how we get there.

1. The UIL has said there will be 5 team districts in 3A and they really like that. So figure that the average number of teams will be between 5 and six teams. So a minimum 160 teams and a maximum 192.

2. Start with the top 160 teams, with 971 being the top number, in enrollment and put them in their current districts. Figure the next 10 are in also, so you have the top 170 teams in districts. Now you see problems in West Texas and East Texas, espicially East Texas. So you start adding teams until the problems are fixed.

3. We have come up with two difference scenarios on where the districts look decent.

Scenario 1- cutoff at 406. 184 teams is what you get. Royal goes to 3A in this scenario, Rice Consolidated goes to 2A.
Scenario 2- cutoff at 414. 178 teams is what you get and Royal still goes to 3A, Rice Consolidated goes to 2A.

Both scenarios have Anahuac and Hempstead going to 2A in the Houston ARea.

1-3A
Amarillo River Road
Dalhart
Canyon
Borger
Perryton

2-3A
Littlefield
Brownfield
Lubbock Cooper
Levelland
Seminole

3-3A
Clint
Fabens
Pecos
Ft Stockton
Monahans
Midland Greenwood

4-3A
Andrews
Lamesa
Sweetwater
Snyder
Abilene Wylie
Merkel
Clyde

5-3A
Burkburnett
WF Hirschi
Iowa Park
Vernon
Breckenridge
Graham

6-3A
Bowie
Gainesville
Sanger
Argyle
Bridgeport
Decatur

7-3A
Celina
Pilot Point
Prosper
Frisco Wakeland
Pottsboro
Whitesboro

8-3A
Glen Rose
Venus
Kennedale
Whitney
Hillsboro

9-3A
River Oaks Castleberry
FW Diamond Hill
Lake Worth
Carrollton Ranchview
Dallas Madison
Dallas Roosevelt

10-3A
Van Alstyne
Bonham
Princeton
Farmersville
Nevada Community
Royse City

11-3A
Ferris
Crandall
Kemp
Kaufman
Wills Point

12-3A
Athens
Mabank
Eustace
Brownsboro
Canton
Van

13-3A
Commerce
Quinlan Ford
Mt Vernon
Emory Rains
Winnsboro

14-3A
Tyler Chapel Hill
Bullard
Longview Spring Hill
White Oak
Center
Carthage

15-3A
Gilmer
Gladewater
Sabine
Mineola
Pittsburg

16-3A
Atlanta
Texarkana Liberty-Eylau
Texarkana Pleasant Grove
Daingerfield
New Boston

So do these guys have the enrollment #'s for every school in Texas??

Also, when will they do their 2a and 1a prediction?

Why does your top number start at 971.

That would be great. Now a school with an enrollment of 400 could play schools almost three times their size. How about some fairness here?

Although, I won't get too riled up until I see the final decision in February.

Fairness? Let's take a look at it.
Possible 3A #s: 406-971
If half the students are boys, that would mean there are between 203-485 boys that could play football.

Possible 4A #s: 972-1975
Using the same method as above, you get between 486-987 boys that could play football.

Possible 5A #s: 1976-Plano has 5000+
988-2500+ boys to choose from.

I show these numbers to prove my point that the 4A & 5A numbers are farther apart than percentages can show.

3A: The largest school has 282 more boys to choose from than the smallest school.
4A: The largest school has 401 more boys to choose from than the smallest school.
5A: The largest school has 1512+ more boys to choose from than the smallest school.

Remeber these numbers are assuming the population of the school is 50/50 boys to girls. IMO, 4A is the toughest division. 401 more boys to choose from. The largest 4A's are equivalent to 4 small 3A schools. You could take those 4 and make an All-Star team. I know 5A has over 1500, but most 5A schools already have at least 1000 boys to find 22 starters. Yep, 4A is the toughest. It has the true David and Goliaths. In fact, both 4A champions this year, Highland Park & Hebron, are two of the largest 4A's in the state.