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Pax

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Pax last won the day on December 10 2018

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  1. Including all games played, Daingerfield is scoring 40.9 ppg against defenses that allow 22.0 ppg (18.9 more) on average while holding teams that average 31.3 per game to 21 (10.3 fewer). Total swing +29.2. Pewitt is scoring 32.9 per game against teams that allow 23.8 on average (9.1 more) and allowing 36.4 per game to teams that average 37.5 (1.1 fewer). Total swing +10.2. Considering all games, I get Daingerfield in a 48-27 win. Only considering district games, DF scores 41.3 per game against teams allowing 31.3 (10.0 more) and they allow 10.3 to teams that average 18.4 per game (8.1 fewer) for a total swing of +18.1. PP scores 49.7 per game to teams that allow 16.5 per game (33.2 more) and allow 32.7 per game to teams that average 36.1 per game (3.5 fewer) - total swing +36.6. Considering only district games, I get Pewitt in a 43-40 win. Common opponents are De Kalb and Atlanta. DF beat Atlanta 48-7 while Pewitt played them much closer at 36-34. DF beat De Kalb 20-15 while PP won 36-21. All these teams in this area always seem to beat each other up, so it's always hard to say. I'll go with Daingerfield in a high-scoring 2-3 TD win. 49-28 ballpark.
  2. Yep - I agree. I'd be there if it weren't a million miles away!
  3. I'll run Childress v Friona before Friday and post it - I guess here since there is no thread on Smoaky that I know of. Without doing any research or number crunching, I assume Childress to win handily. As far as Canadian v Childress the following week - that one should be interesting. I'd say it might be the most high-ranking district game in all of 3AD2. EDIT : After running the numbers on Childress vs Friona - I get pretty much a toss-up. High-scoring.
  4. This one is interesting for me. When I run the numbers for all games played, I get De Kalb favored by a significant amount. However, I don't have any doubt that Pewitt played a far tougher pre-district schedule. When I run the numbers for only district games, Pewitt is the favorite - although the sample size is really small. Just to summarize - I get a 41-19 De Kalb win when I run the numbers for all games played for each team. When I run only district games - and there are few, I get Pewitt in a 46-39 win. In my experience, this means that the game will be a close one. Here are some breakdowns by wost and best games - by my own metric : De Kalb's best 3 vs Pewitt's best 3 : 54-21 De Kalb De Kalb's worst 3 vs Pewitt's worst 3 : 27-21 De Kalb De Kalb's worst 3 vs Pewitt's best 3 : 45-20 Pewitt De Kalb's best 3 vs Pewitt's worst 3 : 61-0 De Kalb So based on this, I get a final somewhere between a 45-20 Pewitt win and a 61-0 De Kalb win. Wide spread - which means, I have no idea! Based on all of this, I predict De Kalb as the winner, but these teams always beat each other up, so who knows? I just wanted to participate
  5. I'm on the fence with this one. This concept is really easy to subscribe to when a starter gets injured. The fact is, that could have happened at any point in the game. It was a freak play. Also, I don't really buy into the idea that teams that sit their starters for the entire second half are not prepared for a tight game in the playoffs - for a couple reasons. One - the most obvious argument would be that they aren't used to playing 4 quarters and therefore are tired in games where they have to play an entire game. I don't buy it - at all. These kids aren't getting in shape on Friday nights; they are getting in shape in the off-season, in practice, on a day-to-day basis. If they needed to go 4 quarters, the teams that have worked their rears off to get in shape in practice will be the ones ready to go in the 4th quarter. Playing two more quarters of football - once a week - isn't getting you in any more shape, and if that's what you're relying on, the teams that busted their at practice week in and week out will be in far better shape than you. Second - You can go back any number of years, and the teams that make it 3, 4, 5 rounds deep in the playoffs are almost always playing in games that are over by halftime during the regular season/district play with few exceptions. Of course there is something to be said about having experience in tight games that go down to the wire, but generally speaking, the teams that make it to the dance - final 8, final 4 - aren't dealing with that at all on a week-to-week basis. I totally understand your argument though - and it's a popular one. I for one have absolutely no problem with our coach's decision to keep some starters in. At the end of the day, they are playing a game. The run that Gunter has been on has been incredible - very few programs have matched what they have been able to do, but at the end of the day, these are kids playing a game - and some of these kids won't ever put pads on again in their life when this run ends. That - to me - is far more important than depriving a young kid of playing time. That's just my opinion.
  6. Gunter wins 55-12, but at a cost. One of our best defensive players went down with a bad leg injury early in the second half. Play was stopped for 20-30 minutes while they stabilized the leg and he was carted off on a stretcher. I've heard nothing on what it actually was, but players were frantically waving toward the sideline immediately, so I assume it looked pretty bad. It had the feel of something like a broken leg - but this is pure speculation. Big play-maker on defense. Someone has big shoes to fill.
  7. Running the numbers for all games, and I get something similar to Bells. Actually a bit closer. 42-15, 42-20. Still unreliable I think. When I run only district games (tiny sample size), I get a Gunter runaway. I tend to lean toward the runaway even though it's a small sample. I think Gunter wins handily if they protect the ball.
  8. I guess I get lucky every now and then! I would have predicted something very different had known there would be 5 or 6 turnovers.
  9. I did this game, and it was so.ething like 41-14 gunter. I didnt post because the sample size is still too small I think.
  10. Game has been moved to Thursday at 6pm due to weather concerns.
  11. I'm pretty sure Pilot Point didn't have a first down until the third quarter.
  12. This is a good point. If Gunter plays like they did in 3.5 quarters of the Whitesboro game, they are liable to get beat. Not even liable; likely.
  13. Gunter wins 28-6. I couldn't make this game, so I listened on the radio. Gunter started off strong taking a 21-0 lead midway through the first quarter (all offensive scores on 7 offensive plays) and then it got pretty sloppy. Seemed like Gunter was still able to move the ball almost at will, but we shot ourselves in the foot many times that killed drives - or turnovers - one was as Gunter was going in for a score, fumbled at the 1. Gunter wouldn't score again until there were about 2 minutes left in the game - following a WB score to bring them to within 21-6. Hard to say if Whitesboro turned something on as well or if Gunter just played a sloppy game. Probably a little of both. A win is a win. Lots of stuff to clean up. I expect Pilot Point next week to be our toughest opponent so far. We will be in trouble if we play like we did for about three and a half quarters of this game.
  14. I have read all the stories, and I still have no clue what happened here - or rather HOW it happened. It is insane. Like, I'm gonna fake having a school and make a couple phone calls and get a game with some notoriously elite team on national television. I don't understand how it happens.
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