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Pax

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  1. Actual : Holiday 48 Cooper 0 Actual : Edgewood 49 Hooks 14 Actual : Gunter 45 Henrietta 13 Actual : Daingerfield 41 Lone Oak 17 Actual : New Diana 47 Winona 42 Actual : Leonard 40 Nocona 35 Actual : Harmony 48 Pewitt 0 Jacksboro 30 S&S 0
  2. Henrietta came in with a good plan, and it was working in the first half. 17-13 halftime score. Henrietta didn't necessarily "hold" Gunter to 17 points. Gunter still scored on every possession; they just only had 3 (not counting when they got the ball back with under a minute left in the half) because Henrietta did a good job of holding onto the ball and keeping it away from the Gunter offense. Henrietta's defense couldn't stop Gunter at all, and I think they knew that their best defense was their offense, and that's the plan they had going in the first half. Gunter's defense wasn't terrible. Henrietta (West) deserves credit. On both of Henrietta's scoring drives, Gunter would stuff them and stuff them and force them into a 3rd and long situation (many times behind the chains). This happened every time (except for one or two times they went for it on 4th down and converted), and this is not an overstatement. Every 1st down was stuffed. Every 2nd down was stuffed, and then #24 (West) from Henrietta would make something happen and convert on 3rd and long. I've never seen a team convert so many 3rd and longs - and not just mildy long, but 3rd and 11, 3rd and 15, 3rd and 20 - and only two of those conversions were passes (one of which was a TD). It was mostly West dropping back to pass, and then scrambling for 15-20 yards breaking numerous tackles (from proven good tacklers). He played just about as hard as I've seen anyone play, and had the athletic ability to go along with it. Impressive. This explains the drives eating up so much clock. The repeatedly got to 3rd and 4th downs, and then converted. These repeated long conversions kept Henrietta's offense on the field and Gunter's offense off, and that is your first half. Second half was just a shut down aggressive defense with the same Gunter offense that Henrietta couldn't stop all night. They just had their opportunities in the second half (namely the 21-0 3rd quarter, Gunter played run the clock and subbed in in the 4th). They made adjustments to force someone other than West to beat them, and that resulted in turnovers - which Gunter capitalized on.
  3. I didn' know they were 0-10 just two years ago. Great turnaround! ND would be dangerous if they could solve their defensive woes, no doubt.
  4. I predicted that game in that thread, but I have New Diana taking it 51-27
  5. I've run my numbers, and I very well could be completely wrong on every one. That's why they play the games, right? Either way, here are my predictions : Holliday vs Cooper Too much Holliday for Cooper in this one. Cooper doesn't have the offense to keep up - scoring less on average than their opponents normally allow on average. The average defense Cooper has faced allows 30.1 ppg, and Cooper is scoring 22.4 ppg against these defenses. Holliday is allowing just 9.9 ppg coming into this one. The good news for Cooper is that their defense isn't terrible, holding opponents to about a score less than they are used to and Holliday isn't scoring at head-turning rates (38ppg). Still too much for Cooper. I take Holliday in this one. Prediction : Holliday 31 Cooper 7 Edgewood vs Hooks This should be a close one, but the edge goes to Edgewood. Hooks is not taking any teams away from their game. They score just about what their opponents allow, and they give up just about what their opponents score. Edgewood doesn't have the shut-down defense, but they are able to put more points up than defenses allow on average, and I think that will be the difference here. Hooks could very well win this one, but I'll take Edgewood in this one in a mid to high scoring game. Prediction : Edgewood 42 Hooks 28 Gunter vs Henrietta Henrietta drew the short straw here, and a shutout is possible. Henrietta is just not good enough on defense to keep Gunter's will to be in the end zone from becoming a reality. They are allowing 31.1 ppg to offenses that score the same - in other words, they allow whatever the offense they are playing is used to scoring. In Gunter's case, that's 50+, so I expect something in that range. Gunter has held opponents who average 22.4 ppg to 4.3 ppg. It's hard to say with all the shutouts, but I'll give Henrietta a couple scores - even though another shutout is possible. Prediction : Gunter 54 Henrietta 12 Daingerfield vs Lone Oak This is a potential upset for me, but I don't think Daingerfield will allow it. Their solid defense combined with Lone Oak's average defense will be the difference in my opinion. Daingerfield pretty consistently holds opponents to fewer than they are used to by about two scores. Lone Oak comes in averaging 35. Lone Oak's defense isn't shaking any foundations, and I think Daingerfield will take care of business. Again - there is potential for an upset in this one I think, but I'll take Daingerfield. Prediction : Daingerfield 35 Lone Oak 20 New Diana vs Winona The battle of the non-defenses. No offense to either team, but the defenses in this game are just not very good. New Diana comes in allowing 32.9 ppg to offenses that score 31.7 ppg and Winona coming in allowing 34.2 ppg to offenses that score 32.3 ppg. The difference in this one will be - in my opinion - the ability of the offenses to score, and in that department, New Diana has a decided lead - scoring 47 ppg to Winona's 25 ppg. This will be the difference in my opinion. Prediction : New Diana 51 Winona 27 Leonard vs Nocona Another potential upset here. If you only consider district play for each team, they are evenly matched, and that might be the way this one plays out. I have a hard time picking this one or predicting it because of the close match-up based on district play. Nocona takes it if you consider the season as a whole, and that's the way I'm gonna lean on this one. There's not much to analyze here. Over the course of district play, the two teams are pretty even. However, over the entire season (which is where I'm gonna predict), Nocona has the better defense as well as the better offense. Prediction : Leonard 28 Nocona 49 Harmony vs Pewitt Another team drawing the short straw. There's not much to analyze here. Pewitt is just about as average as you can be. They score just about what teams allow on average, and they allow just about what teams score on average. For Harmony, this is good news - as they come in averaging 53.4 ppg and allowing 9.1 ppg. Prediction : Harmony 56 Pewitt 7 Jacksboro vs S&S I think this is the most lopsided 3 vs 4 seed in round one. S&S comes in allowing whatever teams normally score and scoring about a a TD less than what their opponents normally allow. Jacksboro looks more like a district winner than a runner up this year. Offense is OK, and defense is pretty good, holding opponents to a fraction of what they normally score. I'm not predicting a blowout (though it's possible), but I think they handle S&S with relative ease. Prediction : Jacksboro 35 S&S 14
  6. No, it does not account for things like that, and it can be a flaw. However, It still predicted that a New Diana/Daingerfield was a tight matchup - one I would have called a toss-up, and that's how that one played out. Daingerfield normally holds their opponents to about 50% of what they normally score. New Diana came into that game averaging 50 per game, and Daingerfield held them to 24. I'd say the numbers translate to reality there, right? The biggest surprise in that game for me was not Daingerfield's performance, but the New Diana defense. Either way, the answer to your question is no - specific matchups are not taken into account, and I acknowledged that specifically in my previous comment. However, it didn't matter - because the algorithm predicted a toss-up - and that's what happened, so it got the game right.
  7. True statement. As I said, they both have their work cut out for them, but if that's the matchup, it's still fun for me to run the numbers hypothetically. Everyone has their own thing they like. I like numbers, and I'm pretty proud of the algorithm I came up with to predict outcomes. It's been very wrong before for reasons you say, and I acknowledge that. My numbers do not account for teams having an off day, or more likely a particular matchup that no numbers could possibly predict, but I still find the exercise fun, and it is right far more often than not. At the very least, it shows tendencies. How teams do against good defenses, offenses, etc. It also provides a nice baseline for me particularly in matchups where there isn't a common matchup in sight without resorting to some six degrees of Kevin Bacon sort of logic.
  8. Yeah, Harmony and Gunter both have their work cut out for them, but I'd be willing to bet that this will be the Region II final. I'm gonna run the numbers on the entire Region II bracket and predict all the scores. It'll take some time, but it'll be fun. My prediction without doing any of the leg work will be Harmony over Pewitt, Jacksboro then New Diana to advance to the regional final - - and Gunter over Henrietta, Daingerfield then Holliday. Any of these teams beyond the first round have the potential to knock off Harmony or Gunter if they don't take care of business, but these teams are consistently good. I think they will.
  9. I think Newton is just way too much for Arp this year. Arp will have to play a game very far from their norm just to make it appear competitive. Arp's biggest win from a margin-of-victory standpoint is their most recent over Harelton, 31-14. They beat a Harelton team by 17 who is used to losing by 23. The rest of the games are similar. Arp isn't doing enough to take teams out of their norm, and when they are, they are giving the teams more; not taking more. This one could be very ugly very early. I'll take Newton in a shutout. 48-0.
  10. This is a bit of an exaggeration. Yes, the clock ran at some point in the second half in all district games, and much later in the Leonard game, but starters played a little more than just the first half and first series. The starters were still rotating in and out in the Leonard game and a starter scored the TD to put Gunter up 63-0. They were done after that which was mid/late 3rd qtr. The point is, a team like Harmony can likely say the exact same thing.
  11. Jett, if they both make it that far, the numbers suggest it would be a great game. Just straight up using the whole season, it is a dead lock. No winner. Not even by a point. 32-32 is what my score algorithm comes up with. It's really hard to say with two teams like this because both teams could probably make a very good argument that they could have beaten teams a lot worse than they did. I can't speak for Harmony, but I know that backups were in for a good part of the second half (if not all of it) in pretty much every Gunter game. I assume that Harmony could say something pretty close to the same thing. Because of this, the numbers are a bit misleading. Yeah, Gunter averages over 50 points per game, but it's only that low because they held back a lot. Harmony could say the same I'm certain. I have a certain way that I'm scoring games and it takes the opponents' strength into account. I think it's a pretty good system and it's more often than not correct on a winner. If I take Gunter's three best performances against Harmony's 3 best (meaning they each were to play a game equal to one of their best three), I have Gunter on top 39-32. If they each play one of their worst games (same thing only using the three worst games by each team), I have Harmony winning 35-30. Considering only district games by each team, I have Gunter taking it 32-27. In all cases, it's close enough to call it a toss up. I'd like to see this match-up for sure, but both teams have some work to do before that happens. Obviously, if they make it that far, I'll have some playoff games against some tougher competition on which to base my numbers. Right now, I'd call it a toss up. EDIT : I decided to play it out just for fun, but if Gunter played one of their best games while Harmony played one of their worst, I'd have Gunter winning 41-18. The other direction (Harmony's best vs Gunter's worst), I've got Harmony in a 49-27 win.
  12. No doubt that New Diana played a fine defensive game against Daingerfield. I didn't say that New Diana was incapable of having a good defensive game; I said that they have not proven that they can be good consistently. I don't buy into the "should have won if only" [name scenario playing out here]. To me, that is no different than saying, "You know, we would have won had we only scored more points than they did". This is football, and things happen. By the way, your best shot at winning that game was not putting your offense in a position to need 55 points to win in the first place.
  13. The only sub-10 ppg defense New Diana has faced all year is West Rusk, and ND only managed 23 points. Gunter will have a defense on that level - and very likely a notch or two better, but let's set that aside and talk about something else. Regardless of whether or not an offense like New Diana would have success against a defense like Gunter's, you must also shut down the Gunter offense, and New Diana has not proven that they can shut down potent offenses with any kind of consistency. New Diana is allowing 33 points per game over the season. In games against only those opponents that normally average 30 or more points (a category to which Gunter certainly belongs - averaging over 50 per game), New Diana gives up an average of 47 points per game to these teams and has a record of 2-3. The teams in this category average 38.6 ppg, and New Diana is allowing 47 ppg to these offenses. Not only is New Diana not shutting them down, but they are allowing more points to these teams than they are used to against this New Diana defense. And again, Gunter averages over 50.
  14. Gunter outscored district opponents 337-7 (avg 56.2 - 1.2) The starting defense allowed no points in district, and the 7 points Prairiland scored were not even against the regular backups. Prairiland couldn't field a JV team that week, so JV kids suited up and played. It was against the JV defense that Prairiland scored and the only points Gunter allowed in 6 district games. Fan or not, that's just impressive.
  15. This was really more of the same from Gunter. They didn't do anything particularly special to run it up to 70. Leonard played hard in the first quarter. They were tough. I believe it was only 14-0 and Gunter scored pretty late. They then put up 28 in the second quarter, so 42-0 halftime score. A lot of games this season have seen the clock running in the second half, but they didn't start running the clock until it was 63-0 or so. I don't know if Leonard wouldn't agree to run the clock or what. Leonard threw the ball a lot, so that combined with a non-running clock just gave Gunter a higher than normal number offensive possessions - on which they score the vast majority of the time, so naturally they score more with the higher number of possessions. I still think Leonard was the toughest team they played in district despite the score. I think the 0 Gunter forced from Leonard is far more impressive than the 70.
  16. Last year was Gunter's first year in their current offense.
  17. I can make a guarantee that Canadian, Newton nor Lexington will have any chance to win Region 2.
  18. I hope Gunter makes it that far. Harmony should be in the regional final I think. Gunter vs Harmony is a toss up game.
  19. Got some 7-3A DII playoff scenarios (seedings) here, and again - scrutinize away. I did it pretty quickly, and again - I'm not exactly sure of the district's tie-breaking policies, but this assumes some common tie-breaker rules. There are some interesting possible scenarios. One of them I found weird is that it's possible for Ore City to finish ahead of Hooks in a two-way tie due to head-to-head matchups, but in a three way tie among Hooks, Ore City and DeKalb, when the head-to-head doesn't break the tie, Hooks wins out on the point differential and finish ahead of Ore City. There were some other interesting twists like that, but here it is. Again, in order from most likely to least likely in my opinion. DAINGERFIELD & NEW DIANA WIN (DEKALB/QUEEN CITY IRRELEVANT) New Diana (5-1) Daingerfield (5-1) Hooks (3-3) Pewitt (3-3) DAINGERFIELD & PEWITT WIN (DEKALB/QUEEN CITY IRRELEVANT) Daingerfield (5-1) Pewitt (4-2) New Diana (4-2) Hooks (3-3) ORE CITY, NEW DIANA & DEKALB WIN New Diana (5-1) Daingerfield (4-2) Hooks (3-3) Pewitt (3-3) ORE CITY, NEW DIANA & QUEEN CITY WIN New Diana (5-1) Daingerfield (4-2) Ore City (3-3) Hooks (3-3) ORE CITY & PEWITT WIN(DEKALB/QUEEN CITY IRRELEVANT) New Diana (4-2) Daingerfield (4-2) Pewitt (4-2) Hooks (3-3)
  20. Ok, here are some playoff scenarios for 8-3A DII. Feel free to scrutinize this and point out any mistakes I have made. It was pretty tedious, and I can't guarantee that this is 100% accurate. I'll try to make it as easy to understand as possible. In all scenarios, the playoff teams are Harmony, Edgewood, Lone Oak and Winona in varying orders - except one where Lone Oak is out and Como-Pickton is in (acknowledged below). These scenarios are also in the same order as they are as likely to happen (in my opinion). Harmony, Edgewood & Como-Pickton win : This leads to a three-way tie among Lone Oak, Winona and Como-Pickton at 2-3, and the head-to-head does not break this tie. The next tie-breaker is a positive/negative point differential. However, Winona beat Como-Pickton by 21 and it's possible this will be capped below that (I explain this cap in a recent post for those that don't know what I'm talking about). Here are the final regular season standings in this scenario if that cap is less than 18 points : Harmony (5-0) Edgewood (4-1) Lone Oak (2-3) Winona (2-3) Como-Pickton (2-3) Alba-Golden (0-5) If the cap is 18 or greater : Harmony (5-0) Edgewood (4-1) Winona (2-3) Lone Oak (2-3) Como-Pickton (2-3) Alba-Golden (0-5) Harmony, Edgewood & Alba-Golden win : Harmony (5-0) Edgewood (4-1) Lone Oak (2-3) Winona (2-3) Alba-Golden (1-4) Como-Pickton (1-4) Harmony, Winona & Como-Pickton win (only scenario where Lone Oak is out and Como-Pickton is in): Harmony (5-0) Winona (3-2) Edgewood (3-2) Como-Pickton (2-3) Lone Oak (2-3) Alba-Golden (0-5) Harmony, Winona & Alba-Golden win : Harmony (5-0) Winona (3-2) Edgewood (3-2) Lone Oak (2-3) Alba-Golden (1-4) Como-Pickton (1-4) Below are scenarios I think are highly unlikely as the premise of all of them are that Lone Oak upset Harmony in the season finale, but hey - anything is possible, right? Here's what would happen : Lone Oak, Edgewood & Como-Pickton win : Harmony (4-1) Edgewood (4-1) Lone Oak (3-2) Winona (2-3) Como-Pickton (2-3) Alba-Golden (0-5) Lone Oak, Edgewood & Alba-Golden win = same as above with 5 & 6 flipped and records reflected Lone Oak, Winona & Como-Pickton win This one presents an interesting challenge that some of you who have made it this far into my comment might enjoy! I think there is about a 1 in a million chance this scenario would play out, but this creates a 3-way tie among Lone Oak, Winona and Edgewood at 3-2, and once again, the head to head doesn't break the tie. In this scenario, Winona can be anywhere from the 4 seed to the 2 seed depending on how badly they beat Edgewood. Winona wins by 8 points or less : Harmony (4-1) Edgewood (3-2) Lone Oak (3-2) Winona (3-2) Como-Pickton (2-3) Alba-Golden (2-3) Winona wins by between 9 and 13 points, and Winona overtakes Lone Oak for the #3 seed (2, 3 & 4 seeds are E, W, LO respectively) Winona wins by between 14 and 20 points (any cap on the point differentials might not even allow this - keep that in mind), and Winona overtakes Edgewood for the #2 seed (W, E, LO) Winona wins by 21+ (again, subject to cap), and Lone Oak overtakes Edgewood for the #3 seed (W, LO, E). Lone Oak, Winona & Alba-Golden win = exactly the same as above with 5 & 6 flipped. My prediction is that the very first scenario is the one that plays out, and that the cap is under 18.
  21. I'm fairly certain all districts use head to head as the first tie breaker. If there is still a tie among three or more teams after that (they've beaten each other in a circular way), the second tie-breaker comes down to positive/negative point differentials - and here is where it gets a little complicated. This varies by district and I can't find any source that details how each district handles it, but most districts put a cap on these differentials. For example, if the cap is set at 17 (which looks to be about an average cap), and a team beats another by 40 points, they only calculate the differential up to 17 points for that game. In other words, the point differentials are calculated as if that team only won by 17. I'm coming up with a scenario for district 8 right now and this cap comes into play. This cap varies district by district it seems and I can't find anywhere that details what this cap is by district. I'll be posting that district 8 playoff scenario in a bit. I'll try to work on district 7 after that, but it looks to be even more complicated than D8.
  22. It could be as simple as the coaches not wanting to give future opponents any useful film in a game that you're not going to win. Losing by 53 is the exact same loss as losing by 30, or 14, or 1. I don't know if that's the mindset of the coaching staff, but it wouldn't be a bad one - particularly for a team fighting for playoff seeding with winnable games on the schedule after Harmony.
  23. Jett, I don't think Winona stunk up the room any more than Harmony is just that much better. On average, Winona allows teams to play about 6 points better than they do on average. Harmony on average beats teams by about 45 points. Add these 6 points, and you get a scenario where if both Harmony and Winona play their average game, Harmony should be about 51 points better, and that's almost exactly what happened. It would not require Winona to play a particularly bad game for this to be a final score; it's really the result of both Winona and Harmony playing their average game. Harmony is that much better. Sometimes it seems like you play poorly against good teams, but what really happens is that good team taking your team completely out of their game - as good teams do. It's why Harmony is beating teams by almost 7 touchdowns per game on average while Winona is losing on average. Sometimes the other teams is just way better. There's nothing wrong with that.
  24. I think this might be the toughest test for the Gunter defense all season from a pure scoring perspective - as Leonard is the highest-scoring offense Gunter will face all regular season. This could say a lot more about the strength of Gunter's schedule this year than it does about the Leonard offense though. So far, it's been hard to tell just how good Gunter is. They are doing what they are supposed to be doing, but they just haven't really been tested outside of Pottsboro. In district, Gunter is outscoring their opponents about 56-2, and the games haven't even been anywhere near as close as those scores. The starters are gone and the clock is running early in the second half in most of these games. It seems everyone on the schedule including non-district is having a down year - except Gunter. Or, they are just pretty darn good this year (or some combination of the two). It's just hard to tell. I don't think the Leonard offense will challenge Gunter much. The offenses Gunter has faced aren't lighting anyone up, but Gunter is completely shutting them down. You can't hold an offense to fewer than 0 points, and that's just what the Gunter starters have been doing in district this year. I have a feeling they'd be shutting out more potent offenses as well if they faced them. Gunter 50 Leonard 7
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