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Bear9T1

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Posts posted by Bear9T1

  1. On 12/22/2023 at 2:15 PM, VonG said:

    No Terry Bussey coming back can make the decision to retire real easy.Ā 

    His cousin Garner will be back along with several other play makers. Ā It will be a solid gig for some lucky guy. Ā I have a hunch or hope I should say that itā€™s someone already on staff that could handle the job and do it well. Ā We shall seeā€¦

  2. 6 hours ago, Diehard said:

    You say Ganado would donkey stomp themā€¦. How does a team that bad make it to state championship then?

    Ganado is just better on offense IMOā€¦that doesnā€™t mean Tolar is bad. Ā I donā€™t think Tolarā€™s QB is on the same levelā€¦we will see soon enough. Ā If I need to eat crow so be it, done it before šŸ‘

    • Like 1
  3. 41 minutes ago, Diehard said:

    I would not judge one teamā€™s performance based on their opponent. I believe a good team can make another team look less impressive. Timpson has done that to many opponent this yearā€¦This will be an epic battle. It will be the speed of Timpson and Ā wizardry of Bussey vs the power,size, depth of Tolarā€¦. I hope itā€™s a classicĀ 

    You call it how you see and Iā€™ll call it how I see itšŸ‘ā€¦.. Ā I watched multiple Tolar games today and came to the same conclusionā€¦

  4. 1 hour ago, MattStepp said:

    If you can go watch the Marlin game..Marlin is pretty dang fast w/good athletes and Tolar more than kept up....that was kinda my gauge on how quick Tolar is..not as fast as Timpson but IMO fast enough

    Tolarā€™s defense moves to the ball well no doubtā€¦Marlin was unimpressive to me in that particular game. Ā If our defense can stop #40 up the middle, I like our chances for the W. Ā Especially if we get them down a few scores early on. Ā Should be another battle!

  5. 6 minutes ago, MattStepp said:

    Tolar IMO is a bigger, faster and deeper version of GanadoĀ 

    I wonā€™t argue about the bigger part, the rest Iā€™ll have to see more than them vs Stratford to get the faster partā€¦just donā€™t see it so far. Ā I do believe their defense is legit and playing solid ball.Ā 

    • Like 1
  6. 8 minutes ago, Hawkball7 said:

    Was speed really advantageous for yā€™all last night? #10 is the difference maker ofc. Ganado had no issue stringing out Bussey and tackling + their offense had plenty of explosive plays through the air/ground. Tolar & Ganado are very similar but Tolar has a much better QB/RB duo & that defense LOVES too tackle.Ā 

    Itā€™s just a difference of opinions. Ā I think Ganado would donkey stomp Tolar. Ā Tolar QB is not even in the same league as kid from Ganadoā€¦run game and passing for sure. Ā Iā€˜m not discounting Tolar they are a very solid team. šŸ‘
    Ā 

    • Like 2
  7. 8 minutes ago, blesseddaily said:

    I think it will be close for a half then Timpson will pull away. Watched the Tolar/Stratford game last night and was impressed with Tolar's defense. The killer for Tolar will be the lack of speed. Sooner or later Timpson will break big plays. Should be a good game though!!

    My thoughts too. Ā 

  8. On 12/6/2023 at 11:36 AM, Pax said:

    Considering the entire season :

    Timpson comes in averaging 54.9 per game against teams that allow 26.2 per game on average (28.7 more).Ā  They are holding teams scoring 39.0 on average to 12.6 ppg (26.3 fewer) for a total swing of +55.0.

    Ganado is averaging 41.0 per game vs teams that allow 26.0 per game on average (15.0 more), and they hold teams scoring 30.5 per game on average to 13.2 per game (17.2 fewer) for a total swing of +32.2.

    Based on the whole season, I get a 40-22 Timpson win.Ā  I'll break it down in a few ways.

    I usually like to take each teams worst three games (by my "swing" stat) and best three and compare them to each other to get a sort of "possibility range" for lack of a better name.Ā  If Timpson matches one of their worst performances against one of Ganado's best performances, I get a Ganado win, 37-22.Ā  If the opposite happens (one of Timpson's best performances vs one of Ganado's worst), I get a Timpson win, 60-4 (it's just math - not two safeties!! - - basically call it 63-0 - an absolute blowout).Ā  So, those are the "range of possibilities" based on performances of each team throughout the entire season.Ā  Obviously, this favors Timpson.

    Based only on district and playoff games, I get Timpson, 39-21.

    Based only on playoff games, I still get Timpson, but a much closer 40-32 game.Ā 

    There's a couple of things that bug me here - and not that anyone cares, but I thought I'd bring it up.Ā  On the Ganado side, they played Refugio twice.Ā  Once during district play and once in the playoffs.Ā  I get that teams can get up for the playoffs and things like that, but the difference in the game tells me there is more to it.Ā  Maybe not, but could someone explain if there is anything significant about the two games against Refugio?Ā  The first matchup (the regular season district game), Ganado lost 7-30.Ā  The playoff game, they won 41-12.Ā  Something tells me there is more to it than just game-planning and playoff atmosphere.Ā  This is a 50+ point swing against the same team.Ā  Was Ganado missing key players in the first game - - or was Refugio missing key players in the playoff game?Ā  Anything like that?Ā  Not really a big deal, I'm just curious about how the two games came out so differently.

    On the other side, and this one doesn't really bug me as much as it just makes me curious, but it's certainly an anomaly.Ā  The Timpson 68-7 win over Honey Grove is impressive.Ā  Honey Grove is a good team whose defense was making some waves (for me anyway - doing all these games, I come across a lot of teams, and I'd noticed Honey Grove).Ā  I have this stat I call "swing" which is basically how far you take a team out of their "normal" game.Ā  To give you an example, on the whole season, Timpson's average swing is a +55.0.Ā  Ganado's is a +32.2 (I hit on this at the beginning of this post).Ā  In the Honey Grove game, Timpson's swing was a whopping +101.5.Ā  This is insane.Ā  I've done hundreds of games, and that's probably the single largest swing number for a game I've seen.Ā  In other words, Timpson swung Honey Grove out of their average game by OVER A HUNDRED POINTS.Ā  (Honey Grove wins on average by 40.5 points; Timpson beat them by 61).Ā  I think it's Timpson's most impressive win.Ā  Like the Refugio game for Ganado, is there an explanation for this like missing players or something along those lines - or did you just line up and beat the crap out of 'em?

    In almost every scenario I run, I get a relatively convincing Timpson win.Ā  The only scenario where I get a Ganado win is when I run Timpson's worst numbers against Ganado's best numbers - - - - - -Ā  OR - - - - - if I remove what I perceive as anomalies.Ā  That Honey Grove game really skews the numbers in Timpson's favor.Ā  For example, if I remove that game from Timpson's stats, and only run the numbers for playoff games, I get a 36-34 Ganado win in this one.Ā  But - - that's clearly cherry-picking, so I don't normally do that - it's just a REALLY standout game.Ā  I was wondering if there was something that happened in that game (like I said, like missing players, etc.).

    Anyway, this one is getting too long, so my final prediction - anomalies and all - is going to be Timpson, 42-21.Ā  Good luck to both teams.

    Ā 

    Pretty dang close Pax! Ā 

  9. 11 minutes ago, Pax said:

    Considering the entire season :

    Timpson comes in averaging 54.9 per game against teams that allow 26.2 per game on average (28.7 more).Ā  They are holding teams scoring 39.0 on average to 12.6 ppg (26.3 fewer) for a total swing of +55.0.

    Ganado is averaging 41.0 per game vs teams that allow 26.0 per game on average (15.0 more), and they hold teams scoring 30.5 per game on average to 13.2 per game (17.2 fewer) for a total swing of +32.2.

    Based on the whole season, I get a 40-22 Timpson win.Ā  I'll break it down in a few ways.

    I usually like to take each teams worst three games (by my "swing" stat) and best three and compare them to each other to get a sort of "possibility range" for lack of a better name.Ā  If Timpson matches one of their worst performances against one of Ganado's best performances, I get a Ganado win, 37-22.Ā  If the opposite happens (one of Timpson's best performances vs one of Ganado's worst), I get a Timpson win, 60-4 (it's just math - not two safeties!! - - basically call it 63-0 - an absolute blowout).Ā  So, those are the "range of possibilities" based on performances of each team throughout the entire season.Ā  Obviously, this favors Timpson.

    Based only on district and playoff games, I get Timpson, 39-21.

    Based only on playoff games, I still get Timpson, but a much closer 40-32 game.Ā 

    There's a couple of things that bug me here - and not that anyone cares, but I thought I'd bring it up.Ā  On the Ganado side, they played Refugio twice.Ā  Once during district play and once in the playoffs.Ā  I get that teams can get up for the playoffs and things like that, but the difference in the game tells me there is more to it.Ā  Maybe not, but could someone explain if there is anything significant about the two games against Refugio?Ā  The first matchup (the regular season district game), Ganado lost 7-30.Ā  The playoff game, they won 41-12.Ā  Something tells me there is more to it than just game-planning and playoff atmosphere.Ā  This is a 50+ point swing against the same team.Ā  Was Ganado missing key players in the first game - - or was Refugio missing key players in the playoff game?Ā  Anything like that?Ā  Not really a big deal, I'm just curious about how the two games came out so differently.

    On the other side, and this one doesn't really bug me as much as it just makes me curious, but it's certainly an anomaly.Ā  The Timpson 68-7 win over Honey Grove is impressive.Ā  Honey Grove is a good team whose defense was making some waves (for me anyway - doing all these games, I come across a lot of teams, and I'd noticed Honey Grove).Ā  I have this stat I call "swing" which is basically how far you take a team out of their "normal" game.Ā  To give you an example, on the whole season, Timpson's average swing is a +55.0.Ā  Ganado's is a +32.2 (I hit on this at the beginning of this post).Ā  In the Honey Grove game, Timpson's swing was a whopping +101.5.Ā  This is insane.Ā  I've done hundreds of games, and that's probably the single largest swing number for a game I've seen.Ā  In other words, Timpson swung Honey Grove out of their average game by OVER A HUNDRED POINTS.Ā  (Honey Grove wins on average by 40.5 points; Timpson beat them by 61).Ā  I think it's Timpson's most impressive win.Ā  Like the Refugio game for Ganado, is there an explanation for this like missing players or something along those lines - or did you just line up and beat the crap out of 'em?

    In almost every scenario I run, I get a relatively convincing Timpson win.Ā  The only scenario where I get a Ganado win is when I run Timpson's worst numbers against Ganado's best numbers - - - - - -Ā  OR - - - - - if I remove what I perceive as anomalies.Ā  That Honey Grove game really skews the numbers in Timpson's favor.Ā  For example, if I remove that game from Timpson's stats, and only run the numbers for playoff games, I get a 36-34 Ganado win in this one.Ā  But - - that's clearly cherry-picking, so I don't normally do that - it's just a REALLY standout game.Ā  I was wondering if there was something that happened in that game (like I said, like missing players, etc.).

    Anyway, this one is getting too long, so my final prediction - anomalies and all - is going to be Timpson, 42-21.Ā  Good luck to both teams.

    Ā 

    Thanks for running the number Pax, always interesting! Ā I do believe Honey Grove was 100% healthy when we played that game. Ā Timpson just couldnā€™t do anything wrong in that game and were firing on all cylinders. Ā We need that same intensity tomorrow!

    • Thanks 1
  10. 3 minutes ago, JMS1971 said:

    You are correct! Tyler will be on him like a new pair of jeans. # 56 ( sorry I canā€™t think of his name) will put more pressure on him than he knows what to do with also. Timpsons defense is what is truly underestimated. I think Ganados offense will get overwhelmed early on. I see some picks in our future Thursday night.

    BingoĀ 

  11. 8 minutes ago, Numberjack said:

    Ganado won't be able to stop Bussey. Garrison slowed him down and he still scored 35. Can Ganado score more than 35 on the Bears defense? No, they can't.

    I look for defense to be very stingy in this game. Ā I donā€™t think their QB will have the time to pick our secondary apart like he did in the Refugio game. Ā The #14lanetrain along with others will be all up in his bizzzzzz

    • Like 1
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