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Everything posted by JasonDellaRosa

  1. Unfortunately, most people like to say they clinched playoffs because there are outcomes that are extremely unlikely to happen, and in the end it is only a matter of the game taking place before it will in fact happen but it is a fact that if North beats Longview and Sherman beats Tyler this week, and then Longview beats Tyler and Sherman beats West Mesquite, Sherman would go as the fourth seed with head-to-head against Tyler. That one scenario alone means Tyler has not clinched. It may be possible that if they all zero out it is already known via the next step in the tiebreaker who would advance -- although I can't believe that would be the case without all the results not known -- so he is assuming, again assuming, that North loses to Longview and then no matter what Tyler gets in on the three-way tie should it happen.
  2. Sherman's landing spot is going to come down to the cutoff number. I think they could end up on either side of the line, depending on where it gets drawn.
  3. So they've had a net add of five kids since school started. If the number goes up like it has every time, they will stay under by about 10 or so. It will be a sweat in the sense that it is close enough it is possible the number didn't change or only went up a handful. The belief it will go to 365ish because: 2020 it was 350 2018 it was 335 2016 it was 319 The move from 2014 to 2016 was only four kids (315-319)
  4. Gunter is expecting its number to be 350. As long as the cutoff goes up they will stay down for another cycle. They will be going Division I the next time unless the cutoff makes a huge jump by 2024
  5. Pottsboro and Mount Vernon clinch playoff spots with wins Howe is all but eliminated with a loss -- it would take about a dozen combinations to keep them in the hunt. The Rains-Commerce loser will be on life support The odds are pretty good going into the last week the four playoff spots are clinched and seeding is wrapped up.
  6. It will be longer than that -- Celina's growth has slowed more than I thought it would. Prosper has really siphoned off a lot of growth that I think was expected to head this way. Gunter just crossed 2,000 population and the latest census had them averaging 50 people per year. There would have to be a major leap to get there by 2030. It's possible because Celina added 10,000 and Prosper added 20,500 but I'd be stunned if there was a big push coming just based on the numbers. If I'd guess, I would put it around 2035, only because I'd want to see to the next census growth in the area. to see how much it continues to trend.
  7. As long as the number goes up like it has Gunter is going to stay D2. If it stays close to the same or or whatever reason goes down, Gunter will be D1
  8. It's probably close but it's definitely not clearly -- he goes in backwards so that doesn't help and the official is literally right there. https://www.kxii.com/2021/09/11/gunter-28-whitesboro-6/
  9. They had agreed in the off-season not to play again. Pottsboro had been looking for a Week 3 for awhile, it didn't just start this week.
  10. Sometimes you take a game to fill a schedule -- I'm sure neither really wanted to play but it was a realignment year with Pewitt coming off a state runner-up finish and Celina getting to the second round, losing to the eventual runner-up and bringing back a bunch of kids. It's going to be tough to find X number of games, especially on the fly when you don't know how big your district is gonna be. Celina really got screwed in being in that five-teamer and needing to find six willing opponents.
  11. They are doing a community pep rally and showing off the high school Thursday night, so they moved everything to tonight to avoid the conflict
  12. For realignment two years ago, Sunnyvale was at 583
  13. Melissa is definitely going up; Anna is probably going to be close
  14. No accusations. The numbers are what the numbers are. It's just surprising considering the way things are going since 2015. There is always a lag time on stuff like that -- if Gunter's number stays around 350 or so then obviously the additions to the ISD are coming at the junior high / elementary levels and won't affect the high school until at least 2026, depending on what the cutoff is this time.
  15. Latest census put Gunter at 2,060, up 562 from the last one. Celina's growth has definitely slowed -- it's obvious that Prosper siphoned off a lot of what was headed their way.
  16. No conspiracy at all. The numbers are what the numbers are, and there are always different variables and factors. Considering the success of just about all the athletic programs the past five years, one would assume that there would be more settling there. The numbers in the surrounding districts are exploding -- I think people are going to be shocked at a couple of them and how much growth there has been since the last snapshot day. I'm sure it's a situation like with Anna -- Coach Heath and I talked about it when they were planning to build the new high school and their H.S. numbers weren't very big. But everyone moving into Anna with kids had a five-year old or a six-year-old and a four-year-old. It wasn't grades 9-12. It was only going to be a matter of time and here we are: For the 2012 realignment Anna turned in 578 and a decade later their number is going to close to double.
  17. Number went up 15 last time, so the assumption would be the cutoff goes to 365. Of course I find it interesting with all the growth around plus the success, the high school's only added 17 students over the last two years
  18. There's a better than good chance Gunter goes D-I in February
  19. If they make a 7A, the question will be -- how many of the 245 in 6A go to 7A, and then how many 5A Division I schools move into 6A to fill in the gaps? The math is tough when you have 245 in 6A, 251 in 5A and then drop to 188 in 4A Is 7A going to be the top 123, 6A have 122 and then keep 5A and 4A roughly the same? How much does that setup really benefit anyone? Are you going to evenly divide 7A, 6A, 5A and 4A into 171 teams in each class -- regardless of the travel concerns that would bring up?
  20. I don't think Melissa is a lock to go 5A. They only added 145 kids from 2018 to 2020 realignment and were still a little more than 250 away from the cutoff, which will go up slightly because it always does. Unless they have a monster freshman or sophomore class, they're going to stay 4A until 22024, when they and Anna will move up
  21. As someone who has watched Gunter extensively since this run started five years ago, I think their runner-up team in 2017 has been the best of the group. Just because you don't finish with a title doesn't mean it can't be better than teams that do. Every year is different -- I do think the 2021 version will be in the discussion talent-wise. There were a lot of freshmen and sophomores on the field and they only lost three seniors total off the roster.
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