DOB

Rumors are that the UIL may do something this year to slow the continued progression of the offense in order to meet new state budget restraints. According to unsubstantiated statements, the way things are going too many superintendents are concerned about having to deal with the additional cost of replacing their scoreboards with units that will register a third numeral.

There wouldn't be anybody left .... well, except you and me of course.

Probably 620

Chased down website's DeSoto mistake ..... they are suffering from a small freshman class ..... De Soto High School Students by Grade: 9th - 20 10th - 719 11th - 606 12th - 489

Let's see .... Dr. Frank Ryan, Tobin Rote, King Hill .... course those were in the Neely years .... OMG, I'm showing my age .... Tommy Kramer .... Chase Clement ... I don't guess you'd go for Randy Kerbow and Walter McReynolds .... bottom line - tremendous academics (which I think that's a big deal to him), a chance to play early and often, and being semi-close to home .... Stanford and Yale seems a long way off ... Tech is a possibility, but does it meet his academic threshold?

I've seen him play many times ... in all these years of working with QB's I've never seen one as intent on doing things perfectly, while at the same time not being too mechanical ..... I see him at Rice.

There are several who don't seem possible ... if DeSoto can pull that many athletes out of those number, I would hate to see them with Allen's numbers! The district news says the district shows over 1,000 increase for the entire district ... the HS numbers, therefore, are probably more like 2834 than 1834 .... interestingly, they list the increase as a result of private school closings .... it is a theme many districts are seeing.

AA Currently Begins: 200 Enrollment: 180-200 <-------BUBBLE-------> Enrollment: 200-220 Big Sandy 184 A>AA A<AA Axtell 205* Blue Ridge 185 A>AA A<AA Bogata Rivercrest 215 Cayuga 191* A>AA A<AA Centerville 211 Clarksville 196* A>AA A<AA Como-Pickton 211 Colmesneil 188 A>AA A<AA Crawford 210* Garrison 197.5* A>AA A<AA Deweyville216 Hawkins 192* A>AA A<AA Gladewater Union Grove 214 Honey Grove 195* A>AA A<AA Harleton215 Kerens 198* A>AA A<AA Italy 206* Malakoff Cross Roads 186 A>AA A<AA Joaquin 201* Mason 184 A>AA A<AA New London West Rusk 216 Moody 197* A>AA A<AA San Augustine 204* Rice 199* A>AA A<AA Thorndale 201* Riesel 194* A>AA Simms Bowie 196* A>AA Thrall 187.5 A>AA Timpson 181 A>AA Winters 181 A>AA *Within 5% threshold When considered for future projections, the Div 1 and Div 2 possibilitiesare infinite. With just a few basicmoves, the structure will probably be changed drastically. LOW END Axtell 205 158 ! Joaquin 201 186 ! Thorndale 201 187 ! Crawford 210 195 ! Jarrell 261 199 ! Bruceville-Eddy 242 201 ! HIGH END White Oak 408 436 ! Cameron Yoe 421 451 ! Whitney 425.5 453 ! Mineola 418 458 ! Crockett 393 460 ! Eustace 419 475 ! Division 2 Currently (-293.5) Harleton 215 209 Bogata Rivercrest 215 218 Keene Smith 228 219 Waskom 235 223 New London West Rusk 216 224 Jewett Leon 223 225 Ore City 228 226 Deweyville 216 231 Frankston 231 233 Buffalo 251 234 Leonard 278 241 Linden-Kildare 261 242 Rogers 262 242 Gladewater Union Grove 214 252 Scurry-Rosser 247 260 Maypearl 319 264 New Waverly 264 265 Lone Oak 290 266 Paris Chisum 259 269 Rio Vista 247 282 Edgewood 282 292 Lexington 272 292 Winona 239 292 Blooming Grove 260 293 Division 1 Currently (293.5+) Hemphill 283 295 San Augustine 204 295 Diana New Diana 316 296 Italy 206 297 Franklin 292 298 Cooper 255 299 Omaha Pewitt 293 299 Arp 288 300 Trinity 313 301 Warren 360 301 De Kalb 272 303 Hughes Springs 291 307 Groveton 223 310 Pattonville Prairiland 360 312 Troup 294 312 Corrigan-Camden 269 313 Elysian Fields 251.5 315 Grand Saline 314 320 Little River Academy 317 323 Big Sandy Harmony 332 324 Rosebud-Lott 276 324 McGregor 327.5 325 Florence 329 328 Grandview 341 329 Centerville 211 329 Hearne 298 330 Palmer 335 331 Corsicana Mildred 241 335 Winnie East Chambers 360 346 Lago Vista 369 350 Newton 311 355 Queen City 314 357 Hardin 354.5 360 Malakoff 304 360 Caddo Mills 415 362 Quitman 329 367 Redwater 339 371 Clifton 335 372 Elkhart 363 375 Marlin 317 375 Woodville 349 380 Teague 339 389 Troy 372 389 Tatum 421 395 Anahuac 413.5 402 Jefferson 349 404 Kountze 386 404 Daingerfield 407 407 Winnsboro 376 412 Buna 398 413 New Boston 410 413 Gladewater Sabine 377.5 417 Alba-Golden 249 ??? Como-Pickton 211 ??? Dallas Life Oak Cliff 314 ??? Hooks 347 ??? Melissa 370.5 ??? Red Oak Life 262.01 ??? Sunnyvale 331.17 ??? CLASS A BASED ON ALLEGED MID-CYCLE NUMBERS Riesel 194 309 ! Clarksville 196 288 ! Pineland West Sabine 173 271 ! Normangee 162 267 ! Big Lake Reagan Co. 194 242 ! Cushing 167 238 ! Iola 153 234 ! Overton 170 231 ! Moody 197 225 ! Honey Grove 195 217 ! Somerville 151 210 ! Blue Ridge 185 206 ! Timpson 181 204 ! Garrison 197.5 202 ! Hawkins 192 202 ! Big Sandy 184 199 ! Colmesneil 188 183 Hull-Daisetta 159 182 Alto 176 181 Simms Bowie 196 180 Malakoff Cross Roads 186 178 Lovelady 179 176 Saratoga West Hardin 168 176 Wolfe City 175 174 Quinlan Boles 174 171 Grapeland 177 170 Thrall 187.5 169 Cayuga 191 158 Goldthwaite 171 158 Celeste 161 150 Eden 78 138 Bloomburg 77 119 ! Aspermont 56 106 ! Tenaha 95 Apple Springs 63 82 Blanket 61 77 Laird Hill Leveretts Chapel 68 56 Avalon 78 ??? Coolidge 63 ??? Covington 84 ??? Kerens 198 ??? Mart 179 ??? Maud 157 ??? Oakwood 64 ??? Price Carlisle 179.5 ??? Rice 199 ??? Shelbyville 178 ???

AAA Currently Begins: 430 Enrollment: 387-430 <----------BUBBLE----------> Enrollment:430-473 Anahuac 413.5* AA>AAA AA<AAA Commerce 445* Buna 398 AA>AAA AA<AAA Farmersville 438* Caddo Mills 415* AA>AAA AA<AAA Hillsboro 440* Cameron Yoe 421* AA>AAA AA<AAA Mount Vernon 433* Crockett 393 AA>AAA AA<AAA Nevada Community 464 Daingerfield 407 AA>AAA AA<AAA Pilot Point 441.5* Eustace 419* AA>AAA AA<AAA Van Alstyne 439* Mineola 418*i AA>AAA AA<AAA West 473 New Boston 410* AA>AAA AA<AAA Whitesboro 459 Tatum 421* AA>AAA White Oak 408* AA>AAA Whitney 425.5* AA>AAA *Within 5% threshold Interestingly, although movementfrom 4A to 3A appears to be the least affected, suddenly a geographic bubbleexists if Kilgore moves down. With 17-3Aand 18-3A both being a short districts (ie-with only five members) it becomesinevitable that one member of the District of Doom in 16-3A will most certainlybe moved over to another district. Carthage to District 18 or Henderson (or Kilgore) to District 17. If Lindale happened to move up, the situationcould become more simple or more complicated. From a District of Doom perspective, a moveto the region to the south (in 17 or 18) could have new playoff implications -base numbers indicate that Lamarque is on the borderline of moving into thatAAA region, meaning that the road to the state finals will most likely have tolead through Cougars front door. ALLEGED MID-CYCLE NUMBERS Aubrey 476 3A 353 ! Anna 535.5 3A 393 ! Farmersville 438 3A 410 ! Van Alstyne 439 3A 421 ! Celina 558 3A 430 ! Alvarado 974 3A 1007 ! Paris North Lamar 898 3A 1015 ! Henderson 879.5 3A 1030 ! Argyle 611 3A 539 Atlanta 509 3A 569 Bonham 548 3A 621 Canton 566 3A 556 Carthage 731 3A 803 Commerce 445 3A 511 Crandall 739 3A 576 Emory Rains 481 3A 486 Ferris 640 3A 566 Frisco Lone Star 719.53 3A ??? Gainesville 641 3A 827 Gilmer 628 3A 669 Gladewater 549 3A 673 Glen Rose 518 3A 512 Hillsboro 440 3A 477 Kaufman 950 3A 885 Kemp 500 3A 483 Kennedale 924 3A 925 Lindale 987 3A 990 Longview Spring Hill 524 3A 508 Lucas Lovejoy 946 3A ??? Mabank 966.5 3A 902 Mount Vernon 433 3A 496 Nevada Community 464 3A 452 North Forney 904 3A ??? Paris 890 3A 974 Pilot Point 441.5 3A 447 Pittsburg 645 3A 673 Princeton 797 3A 756 Prosper 870 3A 507 Quinlan Ford 719 3A 830 Sanger 735 3A 704 Texarkana Liberty-Eylau 719 3A 686 Texarkana Pleasant Grove 617 3A 614 Van 682 3A 657 Venus 497 3A 504 West 473 3A 498 Whitesboro 459 3A 563 Wills Point 820 3A 809

AAAA Currently Begins:989 Enrollment: 890-989 <-----------BUBBLE-----------> Enrollment: 989-1088 Alvarado 974* AAA>AAAA AAA<AAAA Kilgore 994* Kaufman 950* AAA>AAAA Kennedale 924 AAA>AAAA Lindale 987* AAA>AAAA Lucas Lovejoy 946* AAA>AAAA Mabank 966.5* AAA>AAAA North Forney 904 AAA>AAAA Paris 890 AAA>AAAA Paris North Lamar 898 AAA>AAAA *Within 5% threshold ALLEGED MID-CYCLE NUMBERS Royse City 1121 4A 836 ! Corsicana 1460 4A 1519 Denison 1311 4A 1270 Ennis 1485 4A 1541 Forney 1588 4A 1276 Greenville 1249 4A 1349 Hallsville 1240 4A 1190 Jacksonville 1128 4A 1164 John Tyler 2046.5 4A 2101 Kilgore 994 4A 1090 Lancaster 1735 4A 1685 Longview Pine Tree 1343 4A 1082 Marshall 1583 4A 1737 Mesquite Poteet 1496 4A 1699 Mount Pleasant 1432 4A 1359 Nacogdoches 1690 4A 1887 Red Oak 1774 4A 1650 Sherman 1674 4A 1662 Sulphur Springs 1130 4A 1193 Terrell 1108 4A 1166 Texarkana Texas 1989 4A 1606 Waxahachie 1798 4A 1392 West Mesquite 1756 4A 1678 Whitehouse 1323 4A 1264

AAAAA Currently Begins: 2065 Enrollment: 1858-2065 <---------------BUBBLE---------------> Enrollment: 2065-2272 Texarkana Texas 1989* AAAA>AAAAA AAAA<AAAAA Longview 2085.5* John Tyler 2046.5* AAAA>AAAAA AAAA<AAAAA Copperas Cove 2141.5* AAAA<AAAAA Killeen Shoemaker 2230 AAAA<AAAAA Temple 2127.5* AAAA<AAAAA Lufkin 2201 *Within 5% threshold ALLEGED MID-CYCLE NUMBERS Copperas Cove 2141.5 5A 1930 ! De Soto 2750 5A 1834 ! Mesquite Horn 2314.5 5A 2060 ! A&M Consolidated 2693 5A 2464 Belton 2336 5A 2079 Bryan 2713 5A 3502 College Park 2565 5A ??? Conroe 3047 5A 2841 Conroe Oak Ridge 2685 5A 2217 Conroe The Woodlands 3782 5A 3824 Humble Atascocita 3210 5A ??? Humble Kingwood 2580 5A 4114 Killeen Ellison 2572 5A 2093 Killeen Harker Heights 2605 5A 2092 Killeen Shoemaker 2230 5A 2126 Longview 2085.5 5A 2203 Lufkin 2201 5A 2412 Mesquite 2869 5A 2509 North Mesquite 2404 5A 2469 Temple 2127.5 5A 2193 Tyler Lee 2644 5A 2582

A LOOK AT SCHOOLS IN THE REGION ONTHE BUBBLE Bubble evaluation: Adjusting numbers by 10% - combining potential growth/loss in schoolpopulations with adjustments in UIL Classification Numbers - while 10% may seemextreme (based on average increases in this century), when united withpotential increases/decreases in student populations the numbers balance out atabout a 5% + 5% scenario. However, itshould be noted that UIL numbers rarely go down …making population increase theprimary consideration on each classification's low-end bubble. UIL CUTOFF TRENDS IN THE 21stCENTURY (Increases) Class Current Lowest Inc Ave. Inc Highest Inc 5A 2,065 + 35 +55 + 99 4A 990 0 + 34 + 50 3A 430 0 + 21 + 45 2A 200 +5 + 8 +10 As a general rule, the higher theclass equals to a greater the numerical increase. 5A changes are often reflective of the numberof new schools opened and added each cycle. The number of projected openings for progressive alignment cyclesusually rests at about 6-8. In recentyears however, many districts chose to open with a 4-A enrollment in order toallow for growth. That being said, I have located awebsite that alleges it has mid-cycle numbers (ie-last year's). Although a few are missing, it does producesome eye-openers outside of this 10% threshold. They will be represented below each classification chart. Unsure of the authenticity of numbers - someseems reasonable, some seem unusual. In checking around, the most commonreasons given for sudden or drastic change: building another HS; economicissues associated with opening or closing new plants or businesses; and theexpansion or contraction of the number of private schools adding a high schoolcurriculum or eliminating the high school grades.