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Bulldogbacker78

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Posts posted by Bulldogbacker78

    Cooper Football

    in High School Sports

    Posted

    39 minutes ago, Hawkball7 said:

    Much better on both sides of the ball. I would say speed is undoubtedly there but they are very physical up front. Big ol' boys on offense, especially when they get in double TE sets. They wanna pound the rock and those kids love to block (especially the runningbacks). Passing game is more refined than years passed with more boots & rollouts but they will mostly use it for a homerun shot. Coupled with the coaching, this is Cooper's best team in the Castorena era & one of Coopers best teams all-around.  

    I have seen them play and I would agree they are the best AA team Cooper has had. 

    Honey Grove vs Cooper { ghost of Gunter} next week

    in High School Sports

    Posted

    9 hours ago, ShoelessJoe said:

    So I went back and looked at the predictions.  Pax said HG 40-0 or his last projection was 35-0.  I told him that I thought that was way out there.  Wish he would let us know about his prediction of Cooper getting shut out by HG.  HG’s schedule was so bad compared to Cooper’s
     

    Bulldogbacker said 36-20.  Very close prediction.

    Cooper QB put the team on his shoulders and led them to victory.  Cooper has so many weapons on the field, and their O line controlled the LOS.  The HG QB, only a soph is the real deal.  He will play on Saturday’s but not at QB, but probably as a slot receiver.  HG had some good LB’ers.

     

    You might say I had a little insight on the talent of both teams.

    Honey Grove vs Cooper { ghost of Gunter} next week

    in High School Sports

    Posted

    On 10/18/2023 at 12:01 PM, Pax said:

    I posted earlier in this thread and predicted a 40-0 HG win.  They've each played a game since then, so adding those games into the equation, I get a HG win, 35-0.  This is using a different method though - and I only used it because there is a flaw in the way my calculations work.  The flaw only exists because HG allows so few points, so I don't use it that often.  A boring and possibly confusing explanation : 

    It's kind of complicated.  Using my normal method, I get a Honey Grove win, 43-20.  My normal method just uses straight up points.  The flaw in my system is that if a team is shutting out literally everyone they play, there is sort of a threshold that doesn't allow the "math" to actually tell how good a defense is.  Thru 5 games, HG held each opponent to zero points.  The average offense HG faced scores 26.9 points per game, and HG's defense on average held opponents to 26.9 fewer points than they average.  The flaw is that if Honey Grove's defense is better than 26.9 points, the math wouldn't show it because they can only hold their opponents to zero.  And if that team only averages 27 points a game, then they will have only held them to 27 points fewer than they average, so being that Honey Grove's opponents average 27 points per game, their defense cannot hold them to more than 27 points fewer.  Make sense?  In other words, there is no way to tell if they WOULD HAVE held them to zero even if they average 30, 35, 40 points a game.  Up until this most recent game where they gave up what I think was a cheap field goal, they have faced teams that average 31, 35, and 40 points per game - and Honey Grove held each of these opponents to zero - so in THOSE games, they held their opponents to 31 fewer, 35 fewer, and 40 fewer than they average respectively.  If I had applied my "x" amount fewer than they average method - - which is only 27 points, then I would have had all three of those teams scoring points.  However, if I use a "percentage" method instead, I get a 35-0 prediction.  Honey Grove has held their opponents to about 1.8% of what they average.  Cooper averages 45.3 points per game, and 1.8% of this is 0.82 points.  Since scoring 1 and only 1 point is extremely unlikely, I just made it 0 in the 35-0 prediction that uses this percentage method.  The absolute method (which is what I use pretty much 100% of the time, I get a 43-20 Honey Grove win.

    I realize how much I'm overthinking all this.  I hope I didn't bore everyone.

    My 36-20 was pretty close this week. The chicken bones beat the computer this week lol. Thanks for keeping it interesting on here.

    • Like 1

    Honey Grove vs Cooper { ghost of Gunter} next week

    in High School Sports

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Pax said:

    I posted earlier in this thread and predicted a 40-0 HG win.  They've each played a game since then, so adding those games into the equation, I get a HG win, 35-0.  This is using a different method though - and I only used it because there is a flaw in the way my calculations work.  The flaw only exists because HG allows so few points, so I don't use it that often.  A boring and possibly confusing explanation : 

    It's kind of complicated.  Using my normal method, I get a Honey Grove win, 43-20.  My normal method just uses straight up points.  The flaw in my system is that if a team is shutting out literally everyone they play, there is sort of a threshold that doesn't allow the "math" to actually tell how good a defense is.  Thru 5 games, HG held each opponent to zero points.  The average offense HG faced scores 26.9 points per game, and HG's defense on average held opponents to 26.9 fewer points than they average.  The flaw is that if Honey Grove's defense is better than 26.9 points, the math wouldn't show it because they can only hold their opponents to zero.  And if that team only averages 27 points a game, then they will have only held them to 27 points fewer than they average, so being that Honey Grove's opponents average 27 points per game, their defense cannot hold them to more than 27 points fewer.  Make sense?  In other words, there is no way to tell if they WOULD HAVE held them to zero even if they average 30, 35, 40 points a game.  Up until this most recent game where they gave up what I think was a cheap field goal, they have faced teams that average 31, 35, and 40 points per game - and Honey Grove held each of these opponents to zero - so in THOSE games, they held their opponents to 31 fewer, 35 fewer, and 40 fewer than they average respectively.  If I had applied my "x" amount fewer than they average method - - which is only 27 points, then I would have had all three of those teams scoring points.  However, if I use a "percentage" method instead, I get a 35-0 prediction.  Honey Grove has held their opponents to about 1.8% of what they average.  Cooper averages 45.3 points per game, and 1.8% of this is 0.82 points.  Since scoring 1 and only 1 point is extremely unlikely, I just made it 0 in the 35-0 prediction that uses this percentage method.  The absolute method (which is what I use pretty much 100% of the time, I get a 43-20 Honey Grove win.

    I realize how much I'm overthinking all this.  I hope I didn't bore everyone.

    Interesting, curious to see how this plays out. I am more old school. Through a series of coin flips, paper rock scissors matches with my granddaughter, and tossing chicken bones I come up with 36-20 Bulldogs LOL.

    • LOL! 1

    Honey Grove vs Cooper { ghost of Gunter} next week

    in High School Sports

    Posted

    On 10/11/2023 at 5:24 PM, Pax said:

    I don't know anything about how the coaches at Honey Grove handle blow outs, but I generally assume that teams that are blowing out everyone put the backups in like everyone else does.  I'm not trying to make the argument that Honey Grove is better or worse than anyone else - - or what they would do with any other schedule.  The fact remains that they are the only team out of 1,501 teams in the state of Texas that have yet to give up a point.  You bring up Garrison, so I'll just throw it out there - Garrison is beating their opponents by an average score of 53-9.  Garrison's opponents have an average rating of 111.  This just a tad better than Honey Grove's opponents whose average rating is 106.  This is pretty much as close to an even schedule as you'll see.  So, I don't think Garrison has had a considerably tougher schedule; just a marginally better one.  In context of the rest of the state, pretty much an even strength of schedule.  It's worth noting that HG is beating their opponents by an average score of 55 points.  In other words - - their average score is 55-0.  This against a schedule that is comparable to Garrison's.  By the way, that 55-point average margin of victory is also good enough for the highest average margin of victory in all of Texas across all classifications both public and private.  It is again - if nothing else - worthy of noting.  It's not like they are playing bottom-of-the-barrel teams.  Again, their strength of schedule is on par with the team you bring up in comparison. 

    Just curious, what is the average rating for Cooper's opponents?

    Honey Grove vs Cooper { ghost of Gunter} next week

    in High School Sports

    Posted

    15 hours ago, Pax said:

    I don't know anything about how the coaches at Honey Grove handle blow outs, but I generally assume that teams that are blowing out everyone put the backups in like everyone else does.  I'm not trying to make the argument that Honey Grove is better or worse than anyone else - - or what they would do with any other schedule.  The fact remains that they are the only team out of 1,501 teams in the state of Texas that have yet to give up a point.  You bring up Garrison, so I'll just throw it out there - Garrison is beating their opponents by an average score of 53-9.  Garrison's opponents have an average rating of 111.  This just a tad better than Honey Grove's opponents whose average rating is 106.  This is pretty much as close to an even schedule as you'll see.  So, I don't think Garrison has had a considerably tougher schedule; just a marginally better one.  In context of the rest of the state, pretty much an even strength of schedule.  It's worth noting that HG is beating their opponents by an average score of 55 points.  In other words - - their average score is 55-0.  This against a schedule that is comparable to Garrison's.  By the way, that 55-point average margin of victory is also good enough for the highest average margin of victory in all of Texas across all classifications both public and private.  It is again - if nothing else - worthy of noting.  It's not like they are playing bottom-of-the-barrel teams.  Again, their strength of schedule is on par with the team you bring up in comparison. 

    Its like comparing apples to oranges. HG gets their first real test next week. LOL I will be on the scene to witness. Garrison will play Timpson in a couple weeks. Hopefully both teams will stay healthy this year and can meet on the field of play and settle this. I would pick Garrison 32 HG 20. 

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