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Mavradamus and some 4A reaignment predictions


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Really? This means that the 5A enrollment cutoff will have to remain the same or decrease. That would buck quite a trend. It has INcreased for the last nine straight re-alignments.

 

If the cutoff drops to, say 2000, as many as 25 schools could move from 4A to 5A. UIL must really be planning to shake things up because the effect of whatever they do in 5A will trickle down to the lower classifications.

 

I won't be shocked if it happens, but I'm not expecting it.

 

That's exactly whats going to happen. Word is that the UIL wants about 20 - 30 more schools in 5A, basically so some of the older traditional schools can move back into 5A. This probably means the cut-off between 3A & 4A will also lower meaning Henderson, Kilgore and Lindale will stay. The East Texas landscape is going to look more like it did 10 to 15 years ago when it comes to alignment.

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I've heard this from too many reliable sources. Longview is going back to 5A. Mark it down. Count on it. It's gonna happen!!!

 

There is no such thing as a reliable source when you are talking about realignment. Runors fly around EVERY two years and very few of them pan out to be true. The UIL keeps this more of a secret than than the enrty code into Fort Knox.

 

Just too many variables involved to make predictions:

 

1. How many teams do they take to 5A? I believe it's traditionally 248 or so. I've been told it may increase, but how and where? 5A is already bloated with multiple 8 and 9 team districts (a couple of 10's). They have stripped East Texas of it's lone 5A district. West Texas and Central Texas are slowly being dismantled the same way (Abilene Copper, Waco, Killeen schools....all 4A now).

 

2. Enrollment numbers. After that number is determined, they look at each schools enrollments and take the top largest schools (248 or whatever) and make them 5A. Those snapshot numbers reported in October determine who the top 248(?) schools are. The thing is..... there are currently new schools NOT playing varisty ball this season, but will be next season with 5A numbers. There are 4A schools that have grown to join 5A and 5A's that have decreased to 4A. As they list those top 248(?) schools will move up and down from their previous spots. Without a comprehensive list of enrollments trying to determine the 4A/5A (or any other classification for that matter) is useless. But fact is... NO ONE but the UIL seems to have a comprehensive list. And we all assume the numbers we've seen posted on SDC and other sites are factual.

 

3. Yet more variables..... schools that will request to play up. I had the understanding that a school could "play up" as long as they had at least ONE other school in their district in the higher bracket to let the smaller school stay. Apparently that rule has changed.

 

4. We all tend to assume UIL makes travel time a deal-breaker in alignment. I think they TRY to an extent. But if we think they wouldn't consider putting Texas High and Nac (2:45)..... or Texas High and Jacksonville (2:39) in the same district together because it's "too far" THINK AGAIN. I dont think they would have any trouble making those schools drive that far at all. Not when you consider how far some of the schools in West Texas, Central texas, and South Texas have to drive). Yes...we all know DFW teams dont travel. I remember one of the Euless Trinty teams playing in the title game a few years back and it was their SIXTEENTH game of the season. The announcers made the comment it was the first time they had not played within a 45 min drive of their home stadium ALL SEASON. Compared to Odessa to Amarillo 4+ hours, toss in Lubbock and San Angelo.......I think we all get the picture.

 

I just dont buy into the rumors and such. We've learned that they are usually wrong. I think the 2002 alignment proved that when they came out and announced the "round-robin" format used after Nac and Marshall dropped to 4A. NO ONE expected that.

 

If JT is forced to 4A, then I think the hope of keeping two 4A districts in East Texas increases greatly....but that still depends on what happens to Longview. There is absoultely no garantee they are headed back to 5A. The 5A bracket could be well over 2100 as far as we know.

 

But we'll know in about 2 months.

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There is no such thing as a reliable source when you are talking about realignment. Runors fly around EVERY two years and very few of them pan out to be true. The UIL keeps this more of a secret than than the enrty code into Fort Knox.

 

Just too many variables involved to make predictions:

 

1. How many teams do they take to 5A? I believe it's traditionally 248 or so. I've been told it may increase, but how and where? 5A is already bloated with multiple 8 and 9 team districts (a couple of 10's). They have stripped East Texas of it's lone 5A district. West Texas and Central Texas are slowly being dismantled the same way (Abilene Copper, Waco, Killeen schools....all 4A now).

 

2. Enrollment numbers. After that number is determined, they look at each schools enrollments and take the top largest schools (248 or whatever) and make them 5A. Those snapshot numbers reported in October determine who the top 248(?) schools are. The thing is..... there are currently new schools NOT playing varisty ball this season, but will be next season with 5A numbers. There are 4A schools that have grown to join 5A and 5A's that have decreased to 4A. As they list those top 248(?) schools will move up and down from their previous spots. Without a comprehensive list of enrollments trying to determine the 4A/5A (or any other classification for that matter) is useless. But fact is... NO ONE but the UIL seems to have a comprehensive list. And we all assume the numbers we've seen posted on SDC and other sites are factual.

 

3. Yet more variables..... schools that will request to play up. I had the understanding that a school could "play up" as long as they had at least ONE other school in their district in the higher bracket to let the smaller school stay. Apparently that rule has changed.

 

4. We all tend to assume UIL makes travel time a deal-breaker in alignment. I think they TRY to an extent. But if we think they wouldn't consider putting Texas High and Nac (2:45)..... or Texas High and Jacksonville (2:39) in the same district together because it's "too far" THINK AGAIN. I dont think they would have any trouble making those schools drive that far at all. Not when you consider how far some of the schools in West Texas, Central texas, and South Texas have to drive). Yes...we all know DFW teams dont travel. I remember one of the Euless Trinty teams playing in the title game a few years back and it was their SIXTEENTH game of the season. The announcers made the comment it was the first time they had not played within a 45 min drive of their home stadium ALL SEASON. Compared to Odessa to Amarillo 4+ hours, toss in Lubbock and San Angelo.......I think we all get the picture.

 

I just dont buy into the rumors and such. We've learned that they are usually wrong. I think the 2002 alignment proved that when they came out and announced the "round-robin" format used after Nac and Marshall dropped to 4A. NO ONE expected that.

 

If JT is forced to 4A, then I think the hope of keeping two 4A districts in East Texas increases greatly....but that still depends on what happens to Longview. There is absoultely no garantee they are headed back to 5A. The 5A bracket could be well over 2100 as far as we know.

 

But we'll know in about 2 months.

 

Yep, too many variables and unknowns to do anything but speculate.

 

5A (~248 schools) currently averages just under 8 per district. 4A (~230 schools) is about 7 per district and 3A (~180 schools) is 5-6 schools per district. Expansion of 5A must result in contraction elsewhere, further widening the gap. What would be the logic of such a move?

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Yep, too many variables and unknowns to do anything but speculate.

 

5A (~248 schools) currently averages just under 8 per district. 4A (~230 schools) is about 7 per district and 3A (~180 schools) is 5-6 schools per district. Expansion of 5A must result in contraction elsewhere, further widening the gap. What would be the logic of such a move?

 

There is none. The purpose of classifications is to group schools together with similar enrollments. Contraction at the 2A and 3A levels just doesn't work....they are already contracted (proportionally speaking) much more than 4A and 5A.

 

The only thing that will ULTIMATELY fix the problem is a class 6A so that those schools with 3000 plus are tossed in together. God forbid an Arlington school have to drive all the way to Plano for a game.....THE HUMANITY!!!!

 

By tossing those larger schools into 6A, 5A will be able to expand, as will 4A..... and on down.

 

Travel WOULD become an issue.....but it ALWAYS has been for some areas (West, East, South extremes) and NEVER been an issue for the metro areas. By forcing Houston, Dallas, Austin, and SA schools to drive ACROSS their metro area for district games instead of rarely leaving their zip code will open up more slots. Never travelling more than 10 miles for a game all season will END for metro schools.

 

The flip side.... is that schools like Texas High, Lufkin, Marshall, the Tyler schools would most likely end up in 5A together (same with many in West Texas). Texrkana to Lufkin is a bit of a jog....as is Tyler. But they've done it before.......

 

Personally....it makes more sense to just form ONE new classification (6A) and allow the lower classes to have the needed contraction Vs. this new split division, which will effectively add several new classes..... and would actually casuse MORE travel problems than just adding 6A.

 

I remember in 2000 when predictions of Marshall and Nac dropping were floating around.....many said it would never happen. It did in 2002. Then talks of Longview..... many said NO WAY. And it did. Now JT and Lufkin are nearing that same bubble that Marshall and Nac were on in 2000 (Texrkana and PT were on in the late 80's). I actually thought 2010 would be the year 6A would finally come down the pike, but not so.

 

Something is gonna have to change. The number of schools in increasing every year, the enrollments are getting bigger in metro areas.....and smaller in non metro areas. Something going to give.

 

Schools with 300 shouldnt be playing schools with 900 plus. Schools with a 1000 shouldn't be playing schools with 2000 plus. Are there some that CAN play? YES (see Longview/Allen).... but generally speaking.... that's the exception and not the rule.

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There is none. The purpose of classifications is to group schools together with similar enrollments. Contraction at the 2A and 3A levels just doesn't work....they are already contracted (proportionally speaking) much more than 4A and 5A.

 

The only thing that will ULTIMATELY fix the problem is a class 6A so that those schools with 3000 plus are tossed in together. God forbid an Arlington school have to drive all the way to Plano for a game.....THE HUMANITY!!!!

 

By tossing those larger schools into 6A, 5A will be able to expand, as will 4A..... and on down.

 

Travel WOULD become an issue.....but it ALWAYS has been for some areas (West, East, South extremes) and NEVER been an issue for the metro areas. By forcing Houston, Dallas, Austin, and SA schools to drive ACROSS their metro area for district games instead of rarely leaving their zip code will open up more slots. Never travelling more than 10 miles for a game all season will END for metro schools.

 

The flip side.... is that schools like Texas High, Lufkin, Marshall, the Tyler schools would most likely end up in 5A together (same with many in West Texas). Texrkana to Lufkin is a bit of a jog....as is Tyler. But they've done it before.......

 

Personally....it makes more sense to just form ONE new classification (6A) and allow the lower classes to have the needed contraction Vs. this new split division, which will effectively add several new classes..... and would actually casuse MORE travel problems than just adding 6A.

 

I remember in 2000 when predictions of Marshall and Nac dropping were floating around.....many said it would never happen. It did in 2002. Then talks of Longview..... many said NO WAY. And it did. Now JT and Lufkin are nearing that same bubble that Marshall and Nac were on in 2000 (Texrkana and PT were on in the late 80's). I actually thought 2010 would be the year 6A would finally come down the pike, but not so.

 

Something is gonna have to change. The number of schools in increasing every year, the enrollments are getting bigger in metro areas.....and smaller in non metro areas. Something going to give.

 

Schools with 300 shouldnt be playing schools with 900 plus. Schools with a 1000 shouldn't be playing schools with 2000 plus. Are there some that CAN play? YES (see Longview/Allen).... but generally speaking.... that's the exception and not the rule.

 

Instead of forming a whole new 6A division, go ahead and split up into D1 and D2 for district.

maybe not for 2A and 1A. but for 3, 4, & 5 it would make it more even. But it would mean more travel.

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jus wondering....ss jus barely has an enrollment over 1000 if im thinking correctly. Is there any possibility that the bottom 4A numbers could surpass SS' enrollment and drop them down to 3A??

 

nah, it seems that SS is firmly 4A for now. Henderson, however will definitely be 3A next year, they are over 100 students under. Kilgore and Lindale, if one goes they both do, their enrollments only differed by 1 student I believe. It should be really interesting!

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nah, it seems that SS is firmly 4A for now. Henderson, however will definitely be 3A next year, they are over 100 students under. Kilgore and Lindale, if one goes they both do, their enrollments only differed by 1 student I believe. It should be really interesting!

 

wouldnt it b fun to see what ss could do in 3a tho lol

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  1.  

    Not really. Gilmer would be waiting on you instead of Longview.

 

:rofl: I was actually thinking the same thing. However, I did see the 3A DI Championship game last year between La Vega and Prosper. Neither of those teams would have had a chance.

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What about an I-30 district? It's as far from Texarkana to Longview as it is from Texarkana to Rockwall.

 

Texas High

Mount Pleasant

Sulphur Springs

Greenville

 

and then you would have to decide which direction you would want to go:

Terrell

Forney

or

Royse City

Rockwall

 

Could Lindale get thrown in there?

 

Then your other district would be:

 

Marshall

Hallsville

Pine Tree

Whitehouse

Jacksonville

Nacogdoches

 

depending on alignment you would get probably 2 of the following:

Longview

John Tyler

Lindale

Kilgore

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What about an I-30 district? It's as far from Texarkana to Longview as it is from Texarkana to Rockwall.

 

Texas High

Mount Pleasant

Sulphur Springs

Greenville

 

and then you would have to decide which direction you would want to go:

Terrell

Forney

or

Royse City

Rockwall

 

Could Lindale get thrown in there?

 

Then your other district would be:

 

Marshall

Hallsville

Pine Tree

Whitehouse

Jacksonville

Nacogdoches

 

depending on alignment you would get probably 2 of the following:

Longview

John Tyler

Lindale

Kilgore

 

Why would you split it like that when whitehouse and jacksonville would have to travel past Lindale to get to Pine Tree and Hallsville? Weird! Longview will stay with Pine Tree and Hallsville no matter what other changes are made (provided Longview is still 4a) John Tyler, Whitehouse and Jacksonville makes alot more sense. also note, that both Kilgore and Lindale are very possibly going back to 3a.

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Does anyone think that the UIL will send Nacogdoches south, maybe into the following:

 

Nacogdoches

Livingston

Caney Creek

New Caney (dropping from 5A)

Porter (new school in New Caney ISD)

Humble (dropping from 5a)

Kingwood Park

Summer Creek (New school in Humble ISD)

 

Would make a great HWY 59 district

 

 

Lufkin is already going to New Caney and Conroe, and Nac. is but 18 miles further.

 

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Does anyone think that the UIL will send Nacogdoches south, maybe into the following:

 

Nacogdoches

Livingston

Caney Creek

New Caney (dropping from 5A)

Porter (new school in New Caney ISD)

Humble (dropping from 5a)

Kingwood Park

Summer Creek (New school in Humble ISD)

 

Would make a great HWY 59 district

 

 

Lufkin is already going to New Caney and Conroe, and Nac. is but 18 miles further.

 

 

that would be something.

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Does anyone think that the UIL will send Nacogdoches south, maybe into the following:

 

Nacogdoches

Livingston

Caney Creek

New Caney (dropping from 5A)

Porter (new school in New Caney ISD)

Humble (dropping from 5a)

Kingwood Park

Summer Creek (New school in Humble ISD)

 

Would make a great HWY 59 district

 

 

Lufkin is already going to New Caney and Conroe, and Nac. is but 18 miles further.

 

Humble seems like a long way. Would Vidor's district be closer? Although, that district is pretty full.

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Why would you split it like that when whitehouse and jacksonville would have to travel past Lindale to get to Pine Tree and Hallsville? Weird! Longview will stay with Pine Tree and Hallsville no matter what other changes are made (provided Longview is still 4a) John Tyler, Whitehouse and Jacksonville makes alot more sense. also note, that both Kilgore and Lindale are very possibly going back to 3a.

 

If you're driving from Whitehouse or Jacksonville to Pine Tree or Hallsville and go through in Lindale, you're lost.

 

If you'll note I grouped Lindale into that district as a possibility. It would not make sense to have them in a district with Texas High, so I'll give you that, but a few years ago they were in a district with Sulphur Springs and Terrell.

 

My alignment included the caveat that you would probably only get 2 of those last four teams. So if the number is set high you will probably get John Tyler and Longview. If low you will probably get Lindale and Kilgore.

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Does anyone think that the UIL will send Nacogdoches south, maybe into the following:

 

Nacogdoches

Livingston

Caney Creek

New Caney (dropping from 5A)

Porter (new school in New Caney ISD)

Humble (dropping from 5a)

Kingwood Park

Summer Creek (New school in Humble ISD)

 

Would make a great HWY 59 district

 

 

Lufkin is already going to New Caney and Conroe, and Nac. is but 18 miles further.

 

I think that's only a matter of time, especially with North East Texas getting thinner and thinner in the 4A-5A classifications.

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Hmmm......so let's send Longview (2086) back to 5A and keep JT (2046) in 5A should UIL decide to drop the 5A bracket for the first time in some 20+ years. I dont see it happening.....but it keeps coming up.

 

Henderson, with 879, is almost a deadlock to drop to 3A.

 

Kilgore and Lindale are on the bubble of 3A at 994 and 995 respectively. If the 4A bracket drops more, then they may be safe to stay in 4A. BUT.....hard to imagine that happening with the disparity that already exists in 3A enrollments from the bottom to top. It's currently just a little over 2:1 in 4A at the extremes. 3A is already on the verge of 3:1 with Kilgore and Henderson as 3A possibilities.

 

That leaves:

Texas High

Marshall

Hallsville

Mt. Pleasant

Pine Tree

Sulphur Springs

Whitehouse

Jacksonville

Nacogdoches

 

Question is....would they toss all of them into one district? Possibly....but it would (driving wise) make more sense to form the I-30 district. It would be "similar" to their old I-30 district except the 2 Rockwall schools and Royse City (1121) would take place of the two Paris schools who are now 3A.

 

Texas High

Mt. Pleasant

Sulphur Springs

Rockwall

Rockwall Heath

Royse City

This would work, but would most likely include Terrell or Forney or both as possibilites. (Is there any way we can get Arkansas High aligned into Texas?)

 

 

Here is even a wilder idea. Let's assume the UIL was to drop the 5A bracket by 100. Should that happen.... all of a sudden Texas High is back in 5A. That allows MP and SS to be absorbed by the metroplex districts easily.

 

Texas High

Longview

John Tyler

Tyler Lee

Lufkin

 

Sounds like another round robin!! How interesting woudl that be???

 

Now...back to 4A. No matter where Texas High ended up..... this would leave the "south schools' of:

 

Marshall

Hallsville

Pine Tree

Whitehouse

Jacksonville

Nacodoches

 

Kind of a small district with only 6 schools, but we've seen this district before (minus Henderson) and the fact that 14-4A only has 6 schools in it now. Not to mention..... UIL might would be prone to send this district south into region III again like it was in 2004 and 2005.

 

Enough to make the brain explode!! What day is alignment this year?? Seems like it's always the first week of Feb.... with only 2 weeks left of the season..... I'm getting antsy to see what next season will bring schedule-wise.

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Now...back to 4A. No matter where Texas High ended up..... this would leave the "south schools' of:

 

Marshall

Hallsville

Pine Tree

Whitehouse

Jacksonville

Nacodoches

 

Kind of a small district with only 6 schools, but we've seen this district before (minus Henderson) and the fact that 14-4A only has 6 schools in it now. Not to mention..... UIL might would be prone to send this district south into region III again like it was in 2004 and 2005.

 

Travel wise I like that district, but I would hate to lose Longview and TH. I know we will continue to play Longview no matter where either of us end up, but I wonder if we would try to keep TH on the schedule. A district this small would allow for two more non-district games and Longview would get one of those games automatically. Might be hard to find quality teams to fill the schedule which means we could be looking in Louisiana for a game.

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Travel wise I like that district, but I would hate to lose Longview and TH. I know we will continue to play Longview no matter where either of us end up, but I wonder if we would try to keep TH on the schedule. A district this small would allow for two more non-district games and Longview would get one of those games automatically. Might be hard to find quality teams to fill the schedule which means we could be looking in Louisiana for a game.

 

 

Texas High

Marshall

Hallsville

Mt. Pleasant

Pine Tree

Sulphur Springs

Whitehouse

Jacksonville

Nacogdoches

 

For the schools mentioned above, travel would not be horrible for Marshall except Nac (which we used to do) and Sulphur Springs (which we've been doing). At this point anything is possible with the schools listed.

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LV will be back up, along w/ JT who will stay up- great source who knows someone whose cousins aunt is friends with someone on the Realignment Board for the UIL

 

Ummmm.......riiiiight. LOL.

 

UIL keeps secrets much better than our current presidential cabinet.

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