Wild74 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily (315-223, wow!) DC Examiner ^ | 11/02/12 | Michael Barone (The Godfather) Posted on Friday, November 02, 2012 4:34:59 PM by TonyInOhio Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president. But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery -- Friday's jobs report showed an unemployment uptick. Also, both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don't identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney. That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting -- and about their candidate -- than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so. That's been apparent in early or absentee voting, in which Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada. The Obama campaign strategy, from the beginning, has recognized these handicaps, running barrages of early anti-Romney ads in states that Obama carried narrowly. But other states, not so heavily barraged, have come into contention. Which candidate will get the electoral votes of the target states? I'll go out on a limb and predict them, in ascending order of 2008 Obama percentages -- fully aware that I'm likely to get some wrong. Indiana (11 electoral votes). Uncontested. Romney. North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney. Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don't see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney. Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland's Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don't mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney. Virginia (13). Post-debate polling mildly favors Romney, and early voting is way down in heavily Democratic Arlington, Alexandria, Richmond and Norfolk. Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney. Romney. Colorado (9). Unlike 2008, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, and more Republicans than Democrats have voted early. The Republican trend in 2010 was squandered by weak candidates for governor and senator. Not this time. Romney. Iowa (6). The unexpected Romney endorsements by the Des Moines Register and three other newspapers gave voice to buyer's remorse in a state Obama carried by 10 points. Democrats' traditional margin in early voting has declined. Romney. Minnesota (10). A surprise last-minute media buy for the Romney campaign. But probably a bridge too far. Obama. New Hampshire (4). Polls are very tight here. I think superior Republican intensity will prevail. Romney. Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal Western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and, as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney. Nevada (6). Democratic early-voting turnout is down from 2008 in Las Vegas' Clark County, 70 percent of the state. But the casino unions' turnout machine on Election Day re-elected an unpopular Harry Reid in 2010, and I think they'll get enough Latinos and Filipinos out this time. Obama. Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don't see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney. Oregon (7), New Mexico (5), New Jersey (14). Uncontested. Obama. Michigan (16). Romney chose Pennsylvania, where there's no auto bailout issue. Obama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTFAN99 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 hmmmm....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild74 Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 hmmmm....... That is one article I like, but I can show others where Obama is winning....:P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KirtFalcon Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I still say it will be Romney by a landslide. The internals of most of the polls don't match the closeness of the overall polls. Romney will win by 5-7% in my esteemed opinion. Early voting is down almost 22% for Barry over 2008 ... that should tell you something right there. The lame stream media will do everything they can to keep from calling if for Romney til way past it being all over with. I can hear the fat lady already warming up. :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilgamesh Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Hasn't missed one yet Romney be a landslide The Republican alternate reality is expanding. Can't wait to see the handwringing and excuse making come November 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTV1 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The Republican alternate reality is expanding. Can't wait to see the handwringing and excuse making come November 7th. There isn't an Acorn this time around. I think Obama will win the election, but by a small margin of electoral votes. I can actually see Romney winning this election based on the popular vote. I won't complain, I'm not voting for either mainstream candidates, they're both corrupt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild74 Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 from The Examiner: Even more dramatic, while the GOP has cut the Democratic advantage in early voting throughout the state, the changes favoring the Republicans in certain counties has been huge. In Franklin County, home to Columbus, for example, a 2008 Democratic advantage of 5 percent is now a 5 percent GOP advantage. In Cuyahoga County, home to Democratic Cleveland, the GOP has shaved six points off the Democrat’s 2008 advantage. And in Hamilton County, home to Cincinnati, Republicans have expanded their 2008 advantage to 13 percent. University of Dayton Professor Larry Schweikart told American Majority Action President Ned Ryun that the GOP gains favor Romney. “Although it is early, we will soon be at a point where–assuming Republicans vote for Romney–the Democrats will have to overwhelmingly win all the remaining early voting just to be even on November 6. But, given Ohio’s voting history, if the numbers are even close after early voting, Obama will lose, and possibly lose big.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild74 Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 There isn't an Acorn this time around. I think Obama will win the election, but by a small margin of electoral votes. I can actually see Romney winning this election based on the popular vote. I won't complain, I'm not voting for either mainstream candidates, they're both corrupt. Corruption for every party, with that view anybody you vote for will be corrupt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doomer Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 $#()()+ fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CENTEXFAN Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 If President Obama wins; Republicans blame the news media for their loss. If Romney wins; Democrats will blame racism. Both will be wrong whoever loses. The party that loses will blame whatever they want. They cant even consider the thought that the majority of Americans don't agree with them. That is why nothing ever changes in polotics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild74 Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 The only person who is wrong is the person who does not vote. If you don't vote your voice is not heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osup116 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 We will find out today............................................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLine06 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I expect a range of 270-295. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clawsnstripes Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I still say it will be Romney by a landslide. The internals of most of the polls don't match the closeness of the overall polls. Romney will win by 5-7% in my esteemed opinion. Early voting is down almost 22% for Barry over 2008 ... that should tell you something right there. The lame stream media will do everything they can to keep from calling if for Romney til way past it being all over with. I can hear the fat lady already warming up. :P i sure hope you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldSchool Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Websites and media selling hits and viewers with suspense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLine06 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Wild might want to start looking up different articles to put up... Obama is past 223. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTFAN99 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 guess he was wrong this time. LOL!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trueblue82 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Its official. We live in a nation of morons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLine06 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Romney might get to 223 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLine06 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I still say it will be Romney by a landslide. The internals of most of the polls don't match the closeness of the overall polls. Romney will win by 5-7% in my esteemed opinion. Early voting is down almost 22% for Barry over 2008 ... that should tell you something right there. The lame stream media will do everything they can to keep from calling if for Romney til way past it being all over with. I can hear the fat lady already warming up. :P Now Kirt in your esteemed opinion: How would you like your crow? Would you also want some wine as you listen to that fat lady sing.... Keep in mind that this is all in good fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLine06 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Its official. We live in a nation of morons. Oh no...we live in a nation of Idiocracy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRangers2023 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 one positive thing is Obama will be out in 4 years but the negative is the way this country is headed our next president will be some pot smoking fancyboy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KirtFalcon Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Its official. We live in a nation of morons. +1000000 The hand out crowd now officially outnumber the producers. Sad day for America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild74 Posted November 7, 2012 Author Share Posted November 7, 2012 Barone needs to work on his predictions a little better.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild74 Posted November 7, 2012 Author Share Posted November 7, 2012 I think we under estimated the freeloader vote, we shouldn't have they all have cell phones now so they should have been called. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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