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Chapel hill vs Decatur


Chill5000

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How Decatur's offense has fared against opposing teams

 

School - Points Allowed to Decatur - Season Avg/Game = difference

Trinity Christian - 13 - 26 = -13

Springtown - 35 - 32 = +3

Burkburnett - 41 - 31 = +10

Hirschi - 45 - 30 = +15

Iowa Park - 42 - 29 = +13

Alvarado - 27 - 26 = +1

Gainesville - 23 - 20 = +3

Krum - 41 - 32 = +9

Bridgeport - 52 - 43 = +9

Sanger - 56 - 32 = +24

Ranchview - 62 - 34 = +28

Hutchins - 48 - 31 = +17

 

Notice Decatur has outscored the opposing teams average points allowed in every game except the first game of the season. They average scoring 10 points above the opposing teams points/game allowed average. If Decatur trends against CH like they have so far, they will score 40 points but....

 

Chapel Hill allows an average of 30 points per game, but the only teams to score more than 30 points against CH are Whitehouse, Carthage, Gilmer, and Kilgore, all of which were undefeated when they played CH, and have a combined win-loss record of 45-2 (2 loss = Gilmer lost to Kilgore & Carthage lost to Whitehouse).

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How opposing Defenses have fared against Chapel Hill's offense

 

School - Score vs. CH - Season Avg./Game = difference

Lindale - 56 - 48 = +6

Whitehouse - 34 - 25 = +9

Carthage - 22 - 20 = +2

Palestine - 62 = 28 = +34

Henderson - 49 - 39 = +10

Gilmer - 28 - 15 = +13

Spring Hill - 49 - 34 = +15

Bullard - 56 - 35 = +21

Kilgore - 25 - 13 = +12

Gladewater - 51 - 29 = +22

Athens - 56 - 18 = +38

Crandall - 38 - 25 = +13

 

Chapel Hill has never scored less than what the opposing team averaged in points allowed per game. Chapel Hill averages scoring 16 points more than what the opposing team averages allowing. Decatur averages allowing 29 points per game, so if Chapel Hill keeps with trend they will score 45 points in this contest.

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How opposing offenses have fared against Decatur.

 

School - Points Score on Decatur - Season Avg./Game = difference

Trinity Christian - 49 - 43 = +6

Springtown - 28 - 39 = -11

Burkburnett - 38 - 25 = +13

Hirschi - 29 - 39 = -10

Iowa Park - 7 - 20 = -13

Alvarado - 31 - 27 = -4

Gainesvile - 48 - 38 = +10

Krum - 14 - 18 = -4

Bridgeport - 7 - 15 = -8

Sanger - 53 - 37 = +16

Ranchview - 34 - 24 = +10

Hutchins - 7 - 23 = -16

 

Over the season Decatur's defense averaged holding a team to 1 point less that what they average in points per game on the season. If that trend holds true then CH will score 43 points against Decatur.

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CH averages

44 points per game

30 points allowed per game

 

Allows 4 less points than opposing teams season average points/game

Scores 16 points more than opposing teams season average points allowed/game

 

Decatur averages

40 points per game

29 points allowed per game

 

Allows 1 less point than opposing teams season average points/game

Scores 10 points more than opposing team season average points allowed/game

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I'm not saying it would be impossible for Decatur to score 49 against CH. The only two schools to score that much against CH are Gilmer and Carthage. Gilmer is ultra explosive averaging 56 points per game and Carthage had the help of 7 Chapel Hill turnovers. The pass heavy Whitehouse (54 P/G Avg.) only scored 42 against CH's defense.

 

Decatur is averaging 40.4 points per game.

Actually we had 9 turnovers against Carthage.! It was the worst game ever in that sense!
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CH has won by an average of 30 points in games won this season. CH's offense has averaged 52 points per game in games that CH won this season. CH's defense allowed an average of 22 points per game in games won this season. CH has lost by an average of 26 points in games lost this season. CH's offense has averaged 22 points per game in games that CH lost this season. CH's defense allowed an average of 48 points per game in games lost this season.

 

CH in games won

Average score 52-22, 30 point spread.

 

CH in games lost

Average score 48-46, 22 point spread.

 

This information shows that CH does not have many "close" games. So far this has been true as well. The only close game from a scoring standpoint came when CH lost to WH 42-34, an 8 point difference. The next closest contest was in the loss to Kilgore 41-25, a 16 point difference. CH's biggest point spread in a loss came in the loss to Carthage 52-22, a 30 point difference. CH's biggest point spread in a win came from Palestine and Spring Hill games, 62-27 & 49-14 respectively, 35 point differences. CH's smallest point spread in a loss came in the loss to WH 42-34, an 8 point difference. CH's smallest point spread in a win came from Lindale 56-37, a 19 point difference.

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Decatur has won by an average of 23 points in games won this season. Decatur's offense has averaged 47 points per game in games that Decatur won this season. Decatur's defense allowed an average of 24 points per game in games won this season. Decatur has lost by an average of 22 points in games lost this season. Decatur's offense has averaged 21 points per game in games that Decatur lost this season. Decatur's defense allowed an average of 43 points per game in games lost this season.

 

 

Decatur in games won

Average score 47-24, 23 point spread.

 

Decatur in games lost

Average score 43-21, 22 point spread.

 

Decatur has had four games this year decided by less than 10 points, three wins to Springtown, Burknurnett, & Sanger(35-28, a 7 point difference, 41-38, a 3 point difference, & 56-53, a 3 point difference respectively), and two losses to Alvarado(31-27, a 4 point difference). Decatur's biggest point spread in a loss came in the loss to Gainesville 48-23, a 25 point difference. Decatur's biggest point spread in a win came from Bridgeport, 52-7, a 45 point difference. Decatur's smallest point spread in a loss came in the loss to Alvarado 31-27, a 4 point difference. Deactur's smallest point spread in a win came from Burkburnett & Sanger games, 41-38 & 56-53 respectively each a 3 point difference.

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