Dave Campbell's take on 15-5A

[Mavchamp]

This is how DCTF predicts the district followed by the number of returning offensive and defensive starters

 

Longview 4/3

Texas High 6/3

Sulphur Springs 7/8

Hallsville 8/4

Marshall 7/9

Pine Tree 6/7

Mt. Pleasant 4/3

Greenville 3/6

 

IMHO.....this district isn't even in the same ballpark as 16-5A. Not with the likes of Lufkin, JT, Ennis, and Whitehouse in it.

 

That being said.... I think this district COULD be as tough if a couple of teams can rise up.

 

Longview is the best in 5A in East Texas. Period. So 15-5A does have that feather in its cap. But after that.... I see a lot of question marks.

 

This is a district that (IIRC) has gone 0-8 in the first round of the playoffs the last 2 years. That's a tough pill to swallow when you look at the deep playoff success Texas High, SS, and Marshall all enjoyed prior to about 2011. Of course, one of those teams fell off a proverbial cliff.

 

Longview will be Longview. That means December ball. I honestly think the Lobos can sleepwalk through this district and win it without breaking a sweat, I hope I'm wrong. The downside for the Lobos is the fact that for most of their ten games..... they have a HUGE target on their backs. I don't think there is a 5A team in East Texas that everyone in wants to knock off more than Longview. That means they can't slack off. They will be getting "super bowl" efforts from Lufkin and JT without a doubt in non-district. And would ANYONE want to beat Longview in 15-5A more than PT? OK...maybe one..... ahemmm. Hallsville's roster is dotted with players that likely should be at LHS. Think Hallsville wouldn't love to knock them off? Same with Texarkana and we all remember the love-fest SS had with the Lobos in 2008 and 2009 when the Wildcats were ranked higher than Longview. The Lobos simply can't let their guard down. The target is too great. BUT..... talent is in their favor. Simply put, the Lobos have more talent than anyone else in ETX 5A. And honestly...it's not even close. There is probably more talent sitting on their bench than some of the teams will have on the field (not naming names). And their coaching pedigree speaks for itself. All that again to say.... Lobos win it, and probably won't break a sweat. But we can hope for otherwise.

 

If Texas High can get a defense that even remotely resembles last year's they will be tough to beat. But offensively it seems they have had QB issues for the last few years. That's something you never expected to see out of a Tiger program that has forever seemed to have a D-1 QB at the helm. Their offense was somewhat vanilla last season compared to what they have had in years past, but their defense was so good..... it just didn't matter. Not to mention Norton knows how to grind out wins even when his team isn't performing the best. I've seen him do it too many times. Only 3 players are back on defense. But last year's JV was 8-1. Hard to think the Tigers could go back to what we saw in 2012.

 

Sulphur Springs.... I suspect will be more of the same. Defensively they will likely give up 30+ points a game. But.... they will likely score 50+. It's been that way for the Wildcats for a long long time.... I'm willing to bet it's more of the same in 2014.

 

Hallsville is a huge question mark for me. They lost a stud QB from last year that made the Bobcat offense hum. But losing Mr. Offensive Everything RB Wilder will be tough to replace. He was able to elude tackles like no one's business. He was the backbone of Hallsville's running game. And he was great at it. But his threat to run the ball made defenses key in on him. Which allowed the passing game (what little there was) to get them downfield. The attention Wilder would get on defense also opened the door for other guys to tote the rock like Sneed, who will be returning this season. But all this was being orchestrated by a QB that new how to read the defense and make the right call. He had some happy feet of his own to boot. I think that will be Hallsville's biggest job, to replace their QB. If they can, they could be set. But they lost most of a defense that bent but didn't break (too often).

 

Marshall comes in finally with a full offseason with the new staff. Last year's record was UGLY at 3-8. But with two state finalist (Kilgore, Parkway) and two quarterfinalist (Longview, Whitehouse), a 1-4 start wasn't a stretch. If the Mavs would have had a "normal" non-district record last season, a 5-5 season would have likely turned some heads after the disasters of 2011 and 2012. In spite of the ugly record, anyone that saw Marshall in 11 and 12.... could without a doubt see a night and day turn-around in 2013. It will be interesting to see how much more we will see after 11 games last season and a full off season with the staff. Tons of players back on both sides of the ball. And even some of the defectors prior to Harper's arrival have returned to Marshall after a year on other campuses. Gonna be interesting. Marshall's offense averaged over 30 points a game last year. Defense was deplorable. Harper has promised that has been shored up over the off season. I'm anxious to see if it's so.

 

MP had a tough pill to swallow last year. They started the season out gangbusters.... basically picking up where they had left off in 2012. Then the injury bug bit. Then it proceeded to #### the life out of a team that high hopes for returning to the playoffs. The injuries stacked so high that by the last quarter of the season, the Tigers were basically fielding a JV team...... as was noted when their JV squad had to cancel district games because most of the roster was playing on Friday nights. MP, even in the absence of many starters was scoring points by the bushel. The problem was that they gave up points in bigger bushels. Now their stud QB is at Baylor and MP has a new coach in town with very few returning starters.

 

PT, like MP, had a great start to the season, but it crashed and burned on them when district started, going 0-5 in 16-4A. A new coach is in town again. PT always has athletes. But they just seem to have trouble getting it done. And they have a stud coming back at QB this season. He had gaudy numbers last season..... if the Pirates can grasp this new offense I've heard about (could make NASCAR look like a buggy race) then it could get interesting. But like Marshall and MP, last season, they struggled defensively. It will be interesing to see how much the coaching change will help/hurt the Pirates. On top of the fact that we could see a drastic change in their offensive scheme. I've heard it's a little unorthodox.

 

Greenville..... poor Greenville. Let's just talk about the standpoint of geography for a second. It's a little insane that the Lions have neighbors like Sherman, Denison, and the NE quadrant of the metroplex that are practically neighbors to them playing 5A. Yet they have to pack up and travel to Hallsville and Marshall for district games. SMH. And Longview TWICE! That's a raw deal. But then to be put in a district with Longview when you haven't won a game since November of 2009...... and wow. I honestly can't see Greenville winning a game in 15-5A. MP and PT may be their best bets..... but honestly, I think both of them will have enough offense to help them outscore the Lions if it comes down to a shootout.

 

[LoboFan07]

Good stuff.

 

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't extremely excited for the season to get underway, knowing what we have coming back. Whether we were in 6A or 5A, I still believe this will be one of the best offenses this school has ever seen. Last season, they came in at 3rd in team history in scoring in just 13 games (trailed 2008 16 game season by 20 pts, and 2009 16 game season by 61 pts). Our passing game set school records like crazy, and Chumley is already the all time leader in passing touchdowns and unconfirmed passing yards. This 3rd year as starter should be a great one. Then there's Hasty, who is one of the best backs I've seen at Longview. The offenses are completely different from 2004 to 2014 so the stats definitely won't show it, but I really think Hasty is better than Vondrell McGee. I vaguely remember Talley so the older than me guys will have to comment on that (and once again, stats definitely won't show it with the offense compared to 1997), but I definitely think he should be mentioned in the best backs in our school history. Actual size on the line this year too sounds like it will be an added plus. I'm excited to see it all kick off. Hopefully our center position will be situated much better than it was last season. Who knows what would've happened against A&M with Longview having momentum...going in for the tying score..only to have it go over Hasty's head and back for a TD for the Tigers. Another what if.

 

2nd tier - Texas High/Sulphur Springs. There would have to be a major major upset for either one of these two teams not to be 2nd and 3rd at the start of November. As you said, there's no doubt the defense was the strong point for the Tigers last year. And when's the last time the Wildcats didn't have a successful offense? I seriously doubt there will be as big of a gap in scoreline between these two this season as there was last season. I have no idea how that happened, only for the Tigers to get run out of Lobo by North. Definitely will be interesting to see if the Tigers can have as successful of a defense as they had last year. I'm going to say they're not as dominating but still very good.

 

3rd tier - Marshall/Hallsville. Marshall is on the upswing and Hallsville will have to reload from losing a player that seemingly took them into the post season. #### that the game between these two is so early in district play. Would've been nice if it was one of the last games of the season so it could be more of a play in game. Marshall saw improvement last year and will need to see it again even more so going into this year. And I think we'll see that with the Mavs knocking out the Cats.

 

4th tier - Mount Pleasant/Pine Tree/Greenville. I'd love to see Mount Pleasant somehow squeak into the post season, but with a new coach I just can't see it yet. The good thing about injuries last year, is that a ton of player seemingly got playing time last year. Great experience for sure even if it was not pleasant to watch or be apart of. They still should dominate Greenville and knocking off Pine Tree. Pine Tree will take a minute, and patience is definitely key for them. They have talent, and this incoming coach for Lake Travis should finally set a standard for them. I know 7 on 7 shouldn't be used at all, but getting shutout in back to back SQTs should say something. It'll be a tough tough tough year for the Pirates IMO, but...at least they'll be better than Greenville? I just can't see any scenario that Greenville doesn't finish completely dead last. They're playing another team on a long losing streak in North Garland to open the season, but I still see them getting absolutely blown out in that one too. It really wouldn't shock me one bit to see them 0-10 once again at the end of this season. Poor guys.

 

Should be a fun year, and hopefully there's an upset along the way (not at our expense of course haha). Looking forward to the road trips this fall once again.

[WP4L]

I don't think Texas High will beat Longview by any means, but I do think they'll be better than we think. They'll have the 2nd best RB in the district in Javon Thomas and they always have a slinger at QB as Mav said. Pretty good wideout too with Jarion Anderson.

 

Actually think they dominate any team not named Longview in the district at this point. Far from the season though.

[blitzem]

I think the top 3 are set with it being 1.Longview 2. THigh 3. SS (THigh and SS could swap spots, but I see the Tigers beating the Cats).

 

Then the 4th spot is more of a toss up. I think Hallsville is the favorite, but wouldn't be shocked to see Marshall put it all together this year. Or even PT...PT has had some good looking athletes the past few years and depending on how the kids react to the new coach, the just might have a shot at that 4th spot.

[WP4L]

Or even PT...PT has had some good looking athletes the past few years and depending on how the kids react to the new coach, the just might have a shot at that 4th spot.

Exactly how I feel. PT just needs to find some dang defense.

[blitzem]

Exactly how I feel. PT just needs to find some dang defense.

Yes they do! Maybe this new coaching staff can turn things around!

[WP4L]

Barry Bowman is still the DC there right? You'd think PT has one of the better DCs in the area.

[texashigh]

Gonna be a fun year that's for sure.

 

Longview- Enough said.

 

THIGH- I'm quite amazed at how many people forget the year THIGH has last year. Norton deserves lots of credit for putting together the stifling defense and operating on offense with far less talent than in years past. I look for THIGH to convincingly lock up the number 2 spot. I've been very impressed with Norton and how he changes to utilize or current players. This is the same guy who had Vasher, Mallet, and Hamilton. I heard this in the stands from a fan and its stays with me: "Ain't no Vashers or Hamilons on this team!" It's sad but true. If our defense improves or even stays the same, our team can be dangerous in the playoffs. It's gonna be the D and not the O that makes a difference. In years past, Longview and THIGH would be a dogfight. Longview is a staple of Texas football and I hope they bring some validity to a losing district from a state perspective.

 

SS- Aside from THIGH and Longview, SS will when every other district game. Hallsville is not even close and Marshall is closer but still no cigar. With stud players returning for SS, they could make it tough for THIGH but I dont see much changing in a years time. SS should be more worried about Marshall.

 

Marshall- Harper is making great progress even as the community fails to support their school. These kids play the Marshall way. The old way where they line up and hit you in the mouth. I could see SS and Marshall squaring off and Marshall coming away with a win through grinding SS down. As an outsider looking in I really like Marshall and will be fascinated to see how much they improved or whether their development pauses.

 

Pine Tree- That's right I said it. I think Pine Tree beats Hallsville this year. With little to no threat from MP and Hallsville, PT is the biggest challenger for the 4th spot. I don't see Pine Tree beating Marshall at all. However, if Marshall writes Pine Tree off this could be a big upset. I think PT finally shook off the issues from last year and are ready to launch. Not saying they will make playoffs, I don't think they will, but teams like Hallsville, MP, and Marshall, will have to be on the lookout after penciling in a victory in year's past.

 

Hallsville- If you watched Hallsville last year you know that the players that left wont be replaced. And that's an ugly truth for Hallsville. Word is Hallsville is only working out or opening the weight room 1 day a week. Not sure as to the validity but if so, I know Marshall and PT are working harder than that. Hallsville had a good run in last alignment overall, but now big brother is in town and times might get a little darker.

 

MP- While the injury bug caught MP in a bad spot last year, until MP proves it deserves to be counted with the big boys they will remain below Pine Tree and close to Greenville. This is more of a statement on the status of PT now with their new stadium and coach than it is MP. With the pool of athletes available in Longview area and the new championship caliber coach, if I were a student or parent in PT I would be excited. That said, I think the sturggles of MP are different. Numbers are becoming a problem. On some occasions, this team couldn't field a JV last year. Let me repeat, this team couldn't field a JV. If just getting kids out is an issue, playoffs could become an afterthought. Better times are ahead for MP but not this year, and probably not next. After loosing some of the best talent in ETX, the JV which could barely field a team last year steps up to the plate. It could/will get ugly.

 

Greenville- I realize not winning since 09 is a horrible fact. But if your at the bottom, not much room left but to go up. Greenville will win a district game in this alignment, the question is: how soon?

 

LONGVIEW- 7-0

THIGH- 6-1 (Longview)

SS- 5-2 (THIGH and Longview)

Marshall - 4-3 (THIGH, Longview, SS)

Pine Tree - 3-4 (THIGH, Longview, SS, Marshall)

Hallsville - 2-4 (THIGH, Longview, SS, Marshall, Pine Tree)

MP- 1-6 (THIGH, SS, Longview, Marshall, Pine Tree, Hallsville)

Greenville - 0-7

[blitzem]

That's right, Bowman is still there. Did he stay on as the DC or did the new HC bring in his own?

 

Hallsville will have a very hard time replacing their graduating seniors from last year. They had some of the best talent last year that Hallsville has ever had. And wow, if that's true they only have their weight room open one day a week; that is ridiculous!!

[gtee2]

1. Lobos

2. Mavs

3. THIGH

4. SS

 

 

Yes going on a limb calling the Marshall Mavericks getting 2nd spot...they will be the surprise team.

[mav01]

I hope your right. Based off of the last few seasons we should be in the bottom 4. I like what i saw in the spring from marshall, but for that to happen ss and thigh will have to take a big step down from last year. I think we may see ss take number 2 just based on their offense and pryor outscoring opponents. Thigh has some offensive weapons but losing so many playmakers from that defense will cost them. It still may be a top 3 dfense in district but no way will they be that dominant again. Rhone is gone and so is harris. I think marshall has a chance to be included in that 2nd tier. At the least, im expecting that first game against hville to be the game that decides the final playoff spot.

[texashigh]

1. Lobos

2. Mavs

3. THIGH

4. SS

 

 

Yes going on a limb calling the Marshall Mavericks getting 2nd spot...they will be the surprise team.

 

You might be right my friend. I think we can all agree on one thing judging from our analysis: hallsville is not a playoff team.

[THSfanatic]

I really don't predict Texas High any more.. With so many losses on the defense and no QB and losing the star RB I'm at a loss to know what to expect. I'm confident enough in the defensive scheme to think we have a shot at 2nd but there is no way anybody in the district can stay within 20-25 of the Lobos. I have no idea how to pick any places in the district other than Longview first. History alone tells you Texas High & Sulphur Springs will be the favorites for the runner-up spots. The post season records of this district in the last 2 years (no Longview remember) pretty much tell you what this district has been like. I hope we will start seeing improvement all the way around

[WP4L]

What about Javon Thomas?

[THSfanatic]

. What do you want me to say? He wasn't even the starter last year. Walker was 80% of our offense & he is gone.

Thomas does show promise though, but it is unknown whether the Tigers can saddle up & ride him like they did Walker

[texashigh]

. What do you want me to say? He wasn't even the starter last year. Walker was 80% of our offense & he is gone.

Thomas does show promise though, but it is unknown whether the Tigers can saddle up & ride him like they did Walker

 

True. Thomas showed flashes last year but sometimes I thought it was after Walker broke down the offense and Thomas could come in and relieve on 1st downs primarily.

[Mavchamp]

I would love to see us be the dark horse surprise of the the year. And we were greatly improved last year, no doubt. And I hope the full offseason helps......

 

BUT.....

 

SS and TxH are well established programs..... I can't justify putting us ahead of them until I start seeing some results this season.

 

Until that.....I'm think we battle Hallsville for #4.

[LoboFan07]

I'm struggling to see where this optimism for Pine Tree is coming from. Last season was their most promising season in quite a while, and they still got run over in a district that just wasn't that solid.

[Mavchamp]

I'm struggling to see where this optimism for Pine Tree is coming from. Last season was their most promising season in quite a while, and they still got run over in a district that just wasn't that solid.

I cautiously agree.

 

The last 3 seasons have been historic lows for Marshall..... and PT still didn't make hay with it.

 

Maybe with Greeville and MP being down, they will see a new trend.... but if it didn't happen in the last few.... hard to think it will now. The district IMHO is better in 2014 than it was the last 3. Mostly because of Longview. Tex has refound their groove.... and I think Marshall is about to start making noise again (I hope).

[blitzem]

I'm not that optimistic about PT, I think that everyone after the top 3 in this district are just that weak. Hallsville lost A LOT. I think Marshall has the most potential for the 4th spot, but I don't know if they've got it all put together yet. So for me almost anyone except Greenville (they are just BAD) and maybe MP has a chance at the 4th spot.

[Mavchamp]

I really, REALLY try and not be too much of a homer on here when it comes to team predictions.

 

I think when someone is too much of a homer.... then you can't be taken seriously.

 

But... I do think people are going to be surprised how improved we will be.

 

*fingers crossed*

[Hookemhorns88]

I suspect that Marshall will return to being Marshall soon. Hallsville plays Longview early so at least that game will get behind them early. I believe that Hallsville will be playing for fourth place possibly third (stretching). Lost a ton of skill talent especially at QB. Going to be an interesting year for Hallsville. Hey, we are a baseball and softball school!

[Mavchamp]

I suspect that Marshall will return to being Marshall soon. Hallsville plays Longview early so at least that game will get behind them early. I believe that Hallsville will be playing for fourth place possibly third (stretching). Lost a ton of skill talent especially at QB. Going to be an interesting year for Hallsville. Hey, we are a baseball and softball school!

 

No one can argue that point. Hallsville has dominated both for a while now.

[LoboFan07]

I suspect that Marshall will return to being Marshall soon. Hallsville plays Longview early so at least that game will get behind them early. I believe that Hallsville will be playing for fourth place possibly third (stretching). Lost a ton of skill talent especially at QB. Going to be an interesting year for Hallsville. Hey, we are a baseball and softball school!

 

Longview and Hallsville play in week 11...

[Hookemhorns88]

Thanks for the clarification. Still does not change the type of season Hallsville will have.