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Who wins Class 3A Div 2 Region 2


Daingerfield357

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I have been watching and studying high school football for 50 years and I would dare say that you can do all of this work on paper or computer and it looks good and might just happen.  But you never know when a team is going to figure it and become a match up for anyone.  When you get to this point just about everyone has the athletes that can do just that, put it together.  So I try not to make to many predictions when it comes to playoffs, because I have seen just about everything.  Love High school football, especially the playoffs.  Whoever handles the pressure, the first quarter, avoids injuries, keeps their composure, and makes the least mistakes usually wins, so let's sit back and watch.  Gotta love it.

 

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4 minutes ago, wildtigers said:

And speaking of Harmony and Gunter, if they play their worst game at the wrong time neither one of them gets there, just saying.

True statement.  As I said, they both have their work cut out for them, but if that's the matchup, it's still fun for me to run the numbers hypothetically.  Everyone has their own thing they like.  I like numbers, and I'm pretty proud of the algorithm I came up with to predict outcomes.  It's been very wrong before for reasons you say, and I acknowledge that.  My numbers do not account for teams having an off day, or more likely a particular matchup that no numbers could possibly predict, but I still find the exercise fun, and it is right far more often than not.  At the very least, it shows tendencies.  How teams do against good defenses, offenses, etc.  It also provides a nice baseline for me particularly in matchups where there isn't a common matchup in sight without resorting to some six degrees of Kevin Bacon sort of logic.

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Does it take in to effect the facts that there are defenses like the Daingerfield defense that is good against the run at this point, but is very vulnerable to the pass, due to their inexperience.  I believe that they match up well with any 90% run team, but hence the problems with New Diana that mostly throws the ball they had trouble.  

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24 minutes ago, wildtigers said:

Does it take in to effect the facts that there are defenses like the Daingerfield defense that is good against the run at this point, but is very vulnerable to the pass, due to their inexperience.  I believe that they match up well with any 90% run team, but hence the problems with New Diana that mostly throws the ball they had trouble.  

No, it does not account for things like that, and it can be a flaw.  However, It still predicted that a New Diana/Daingerfield was a tight matchup - one I would have called a toss-up, and that's how that one played out.  Daingerfield normally holds their opponents to about 50% of what they normally score.  New Diana came into that game averaging 50 per game, and Daingerfield held them to 24.  I'd say the numbers translate to reality there, right?  The biggest surprise in that game for me was not Daingerfield's performance, but the New Diana defense.  Either way, the answer to your question is no - specific matchups are not taken into account, and I acknowledged that specifically in my previous comment.  However, it didn't matter - because the algorithm predicted a toss-up - and that's what happened, so it got the game right.

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16 minutes ago, Pax said:

No, it does not account for things like that, and it can be a flaw.  However, It still predicted that a New Diana/Daingerfield was a tight matchup - one I would have called a toss-up, and that's how that one played out.  Daingerfield normally holds their opponents to about 50% of what they normally score.  New Diana came into that game averaging 50 per game, and Daingerfield held them to 24.  I'd say the numbers translate to reality there, right?  The biggest surprise in that game for me was not Daingerfield's performance, but the New Diana defense.  Either way, the answer to your question is no - specific matchups are not taken into account, and I acknowledged that specifically in my previous comment.  However, it didn't matter - because the algorithm predicted a toss-up - and that's what happened, so it got the game right.

Your formula is awesome. Obviously it's not full proof but it's still fun to see. 

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23 hours ago, Pax said:

No doubt that New Diana played a fine defensive game against Daingerfield.  I didn't say that New Diana was incapable of having a good defensive game; I said that they have not proven that they can be good consistently.  I don't buy into the "should have won if only" [name scenario playing out here].  To me, that is no different than saying, "You know, we would have won had we only scored more points than they did".  This is football, and things happen.  By the way, your best shot at winning that game was not putting your offense in a position to need 55 points to win in the first place. 

Agree,  Defense wins Championships.  ND had a good year so far.  After being 0-10 in 2015, things have definitely improved.  I do know that the defense is getting better and better each week.  So it will be fun to see how far they go.   

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20 hours ago, Pax said:

No, it does not account for things like that, and it can be a flaw.  However, It still predicted that a New Diana/Daingerfield was a tight matchup - one I would have called a toss-up, and that's how that one played out.  Daingerfield normally holds their opponents to about 50% of what they normally score.  New Diana came into that game averaging 50 per game, and Daingerfield held them to 24.  I'd say the numbers translate to reality there, right?  The biggest surprise in that game for me was not Daingerfield's performance, but the New Diana defense.  Either way, the answer to your question is no - specific matchups are not taken into account, and I acknowledged that specifically in my previous comment.  However, it didn't matter - because the algorithm predicted a toss-up - and that's what happened, so it got the game right.

So what does it say about ND vs Winona?  May have missed that prediction.

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10 minutes ago, Crazicajun said:

Agree,  Defense wins Championships.  ND had a good year so far.  After being 0-10 in 2015, things have definitely improved.  I do know that the defense is getting better and better each week.  So it will be fun to see how far they go.   

I didn' know they were 0-10 just two years ago.  Great turnaround!  ND would be dangerous if they could solve their defensive woes, no doubt.

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49 minutes ago, Pax said:

I didn' know they were 0-10 just two years ago.  Great turnaround!  ND would be dangerous if they could solve their defensive woes, no doubt.

Yes, at the end of 2015, they removed the majority of the Coaching staff.  New AD, Offensive Coordinator, Defensive Coordinator, Baseball, Basketball, Golf, Girls Softball.  Pretty much the entire program.  The new AD and OFF Coordinator were from Lake Travis/Marble Falls.  They brought in a Fast pace explosive offensive.  You can see by the Stats of our QB & Receivers.  The players are by far in the best shape than anyone we will play against.  We wore DF down after 1 quarter and the same with others.  For those who disagree, just watch the film.  ND has had a great year so far but watch the other sports also.  Basketball will make the Playoffs, Baseball, Softball also.  Golf came out 4th in State last year and could do better this year.  Not bad for a little country school. 

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Gunter runs the table again this year, the trophy stays in North Texas - Texoma land!.  This team is so well balance and strong in all phases of the game.  Whoever plays them better bring their A-game, just saying!

Canadian is the team to also watch out for with that spread offense they run, they come ready to play.

   

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7 hours ago, Crazicajun said:

Yes, at the end of 2015, they removed the majority of the Coaching staff.  New AD, Offensive Coordinator, Defensive Coordinator, Baseball, Basketball, Golf, Girls Softball.  Pretty much the entire program.  The new AD and OFF Coordinator were from Lake Travis/Marble Falls.  They brought in a Fast pace explosive offensive.  You can see by the Stats of our QB & Receivers.  The players are by far in the best shape than anyone we will play against.  We wore DF down after 1 quarter and the same with others.  For those who disagree, just watch the film.  ND has had a great year so far but watch the other sports also.  Basketball will make the Playoffs, Baseball, Softball also.  Golf came out 4th in State last year and could do better this year.  Not bad for a little country school. 

Dude, your crazy as a Road Lizard

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