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Who wins Class 3A Div 2 Region 2


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22 minutes ago, LPack said:

I honestly think New Diana is the biggest threat to Gunter. I've watched Harmony play and they are tough kids but their offensive system will not help them much against a defense like Gunter's. The best way to attack Gunter is gunna be through the air. Make them soften coverage with the run than let the QB pick them apart. If you let Gunter load the box and fly to the football like they will against a team like Harmony, the game will be over by the half. New Diana seems to have decent athletes at the receiver position and a QB that has an arm on him. Daingerfield is a similar team but they are very young so I give the edge to New Diana. Heard through the grapevines a Gunter vs Daingerfield non-district game could be in the works for next year though. 

The only sub-10 ppg defense New Diana has faced all year is West Rusk, and ND only managed 23 points.  Gunter will have a defense on that level - and very likely a notch or two better, but let's set that aside and talk about something else.  Regardless of whether or not an offense like New Diana would have success against a defense like Gunter's, you must also shut down the Gunter offense, and New Diana has not proven that they can shut down potent offenses with any kind of consistency.  New Diana is allowing 33 points per game over the season.  In games against only those opponents that normally average 30 or more points (a category to which Gunter certainly belongs - averaging over 50 per game), New Diana gives up an average of 47 points per game to these teams and has a record of 2-3.  The teams in this category average 38.6 ppg, and New Diana is allowing 47 ppg to these offenses.  Not only is New Diana not shutting them down, but they are allowing more points to these teams than they are used to against this New Diana defense.  And again, Gunter averages over 50. 

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That’s a good article, and good for us tigers. Because I still believe we were the best team on the field against Nd. So if they think that then you better believe we are right there. And if your honest you know it. I hope Nd does well. But we are right there in that black horse convo 

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5 hours ago, Pax said:

The only sub-10 ppg defense New Diana has faced all year is West Rusk, and ND only managed 23 points.  Gunter will have a defense on that level - and very likely a notch or two better, but let's set that aside and talk about something else.  Regardless of whether or not an offense like New Diana would have success against a defense like Gunter's, you must also shut down the Gunter offense, and New Diana has not proven that they can shut down potent offenses with any kind of consistency.  New Diana is allowing 33 points per game over the season.  In games against only those opponents that normally average 30 or more points (a category to which Gunter certainly belongs - averaging over 50 per game), New Diana gives up an average of 47 points per game to these teams and has a record of 2-3.  The teams in this category average 38.6 ppg, and New Diana is allowing 47 ppg to these offenses.  Not only is New Diana not shutting them down, but they are allowing more points to these teams than they are used to against this New Diana defense.  And again, Gunter averages over 50. 

Pax, out of fun could you do the numbers on gunter vs harmony game if it were to happen right now appreciate it

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7 hours ago, Pax said:

The only sub-10 ppg defense New Diana has faced all year is West Rusk, and ND only managed 23 points.  Gunter will have a defense on that level - and very likely a notch or two better, but let's set that aside and talk about something else.  Regardless of whether or not an offense like New Diana would have success against a defense like Gunter's, you must also shut down the Gunter offense, and New Diana has not proven that they can shut down potent offenses with any kind of consistency.  New Diana is allowing 33 points per game over the season.  In games against only those opponents that normally average 30 or more points (a category to which Gunter certainly belongs - averaging over 50 per game), New Diana gives up an average of 47 points per game to these teams and has a record of 2-3.  The teams in this category average 38.6 ppg, and New Diana is allowing 47 ppg to these offenses.  Not only is New Diana not shutting them down, but they are allowing more points to these teams than they are used to against this New Diana defense.  And again, Gunter averages over 50. 

I agree that New Diana will not slow down Gunter at all. ND is just going to have to make big plays and get a couple bounces their way against a very disciplined Gunter team to have any chance at all. I just think out of every team in Region II that they would give them the best shot. Canadian had success early on running a similar offense last year but as we know they are on a whole different level. I still take Gunter out of this Region than a complete war between Gunter and Canadian/Sonora winner.

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Harmony is the team in this area they might have a chance IMO. They are a great program and have been for a while. I know some doesn't like that said but it's true. I will be backing Harmony if they play. I lik their team. Have a great respect for their coach. Great coach, great man.

 

 

 

 

 

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18 hours ago, Pax said:

The only sub-10 ppg defense New Diana has faced all year is West Rusk, and ND only managed 23 points.  Gunter will have a defense on that level - and very likely a notch or two better, but let's set that aside and talk about something else.  Regardless of whether or not an offense like New Diana would have success against a defense like Gunter's, you must also shut down the Gunter offense, and New Diana has not proven that they can shut down potent offenses with any kind of consistency.  New Diana is allowing 33 points per game over the season.  In games against only those opponents that normally average 30 or more points (a category to which Gunter certainly belongs - averaging over 50 per game), New Diana gives up an average of 47 points per game to these teams and has a record of 2-3.  The teams in this category average 38.6 ppg, and New Diana is allowing 47 ppg to these offenses.  Not only is New Diana not shutting them down, but they are allowing more points to these teams than they are used to against this New Diana defense.  And again, Gunter averages over 50. 

Just for the Record, ND lost to White Oak in game #1.  ND's QB fumbled on their 2 yard line with time running out. They should have won that one but didn't.  Lost to a very good West Rusk and lost in Double Overtime to DeKalb by 1.  Their Defense has gotten better every game.  ND's Best Defensive player was out against Daingerfield and PP.  He is healthy for this weeks game.

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5 minutes ago, Crazicajun said:

Just for the Record, ND lost to White Oak in game #1.  ND's QB fumbled on their 2 yard line with time running out. They should have won that one but didn't.  Lost to a very good West Rusk and lost in Double Overtime to DeKalb by 1.  Their Defense has gotten better every game.  ND's Best Defensive player was out against Daingerfield and PP.  He is healthy for this weeks game.

Any body has a chance because this is a new season. I've made my point about four playoff teams, don't like it. Winona did prove last year that sometimes you get a second chance and they made the best of it. ND needs to stay focused on Winona are they maybe like DF last year and watching in the stands. Winona have the athletes to play with anybody. Just if they can play discipline.

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1 hour ago, Crazicajun said:

Just for the Record, ND lost to White Oak in game #1.  ND's QB fumbled on their 2 yard line with time running out. They should have won that one but didn't.  Lost to a very good West Rusk and lost in Double Overtime to DeKalb by 1.  Their Defense has gotten better every game.  ND's Best Defensive player was out against Daingerfield and PP.  He is healthy for this weeks game.

No doubt that New Diana played a fine defensive game against Daingerfield.  I didn't say that New Diana was incapable of having a good defensive game; I said that they have not proven that they can be good consistently.  I don't buy into the "should have won if only" [name scenario playing out here].  To me, that is no different than saying, "You know, we would have won had we only scored more points than they did".  This is football, and things happen.  By the way, your best shot at winning that game was not putting your offense in a position to need 55 points to win in the first place. 

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15 hours ago, jett2010 said:

Pax, out of fun could you do the numbers on gunter vs harmony game if it were to happen right now appreciate it

Jett, if they both make it that far, the numbers suggest it would be a great game.  Just straight up using the whole season, it is a dead lock.  No winner.  Not even by a point.  32-32 is what my score algorithm comes up with.

It's really hard to say with two teams like this because both teams could probably make a very good argument that they could have beaten teams a lot worse than they did.  I can't speak for Harmony, but I know that backups were in for a good part of the second half (if not all of it) in pretty much every Gunter game.  I assume that Harmony could say something pretty close to the same thing.  Because of this, the numbers are a bit misleading.  Yeah, Gunter averages over 50 points per game, but it's only that low because they held back a lot.  Harmony could say the same I'm certain.  

I have a certain way that I'm scoring games and it takes the opponents' strength into account.  I think it's a pretty good system and it's more often than not correct on a winner.  If I take Gunter's three best performances against Harmony's 3 best (meaning they each were to play a game equal to one of their best three), I have Gunter on top 39-32.  If they each play one of their worst games (same thing only using the three worst games by each team), I have Harmony winning 35-30.  Considering only district games by each team, I have Gunter taking it 32-27.

In all cases, it's close enough to call it a toss up.  I'd like to see this match-up for sure, but both teams have some work to do before that happens.  Obviously, if they make it that far, I'll have some playoff games against some tougher competition on which to base my numbers.  Right now, I'd call it a toss up. 

 

EDIT :  I decided to play it out just for fun, but if Gunter played one of their best games while Harmony played one of their worst, I'd have Gunter winning 41-18.  The other direction (Harmony's best vs Gunter's worst), I've got Harmony in a 49-27 win. 

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In all of Gunter's district games except for the Leonard game, they were running the clock in the 2nd quarter.  Leonard refused to run the clock, and at the end of the 3rd quarter it was 70-0, with the 2nd team playing all the 3rd except the 1st series after half.  I think if Gunter and Harmony happen to play, that Gunter would shut down Harmony's offense and that the Gunter speed and triple option threat would give Harmony fits.  I would say Gunter 35-7.

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I like being the underdog and teams saying we have no speed, etc.  We have more than enough speed, heart, determination, and discipline to play with and possibly beat Gunter.  Now the thing is we won’t worry about them until it’s time to prepare for them, because like our motto says we just try to WIN THE DAY and that would be a while from now.  We are preparing for a good match with Paul Pewitt.  See y’all on Friday.

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17 minutes ago, ShoelessJoe said:

In all of Gunter's district games except for the Leonard game, they were running the clock in the 2nd quarter.  Leonard refused to run the clock, and at the end of the 3rd quarter it was 70-0, with the 2nd team playing all the 3rd except the 1st series after half.  I think if Gunter and Harmony happen to play, that Gunter would shut down Harmony's offense and that the Gunter speed and triple option threat would give Harmony fits.  I would say Gunter 35-7.

This is a bit of an exaggeration.  Yes, the clock ran at some point in the second half in all district games, and much later in the Leonard game, but starters played a little more than just the first half and first series.  The starters were still rotating in and out in the Leonard game and a starter scored the TD to put Gunter up 63-0.  They were done after that which was mid/late 3rd qtr.  The point is, a team like Harmony can likely say the exact same thing. 

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Against Leonard most of the starters were out after the first series of the 2nd half , they were not in there is an entire unit.  In every district game, except maybe S&S, the clock was running non stop in the 2nd quarter.  Sure Harmony could of done the same thing.  I still think Gunter will roll over Harmony by 4 TD's. 

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11 minutes ago, jett2010 said:

Man I pray this game happens I'd love to see a good smash mouth game with two good programs

Yeah, Harmony and Gunter both have their work cut out for them, but I'd be willing to bet that this will be the Region II final.  I'm gonna run the numbers on the entire Region II bracket and predict all the scores.  It'll take some time, but it'll be fun.  My prediction without doing any of the leg work will be Harmony over Pewitt, Jacksboro then New Diana to advance to the regional final - - and Gunter over Henrietta, Daingerfield then Holliday.  Any of these teams beyond the first round have the potential to knock off Harmony or Gunter if they don't take care of business, but these teams are consistently good.  I think they will.

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1 hour ago, Pax said:

Jett, if they both make it that far, the numbers suggest it would be a great game.  Just straight up using the whole season, it is a dead lock.  No winner.  Not even by a point.  32-32 is what my score algorithm comes up with.

It's really hard to say with two teams like this because both teams could probably make a very good argument that they could have beaten teams a lot worse than they did.  I can't speak for Harmony, but I know that backups were in for a good part of the second half (if not all of it) in pretty much every Gunter game.  I assume that Harmony could say something pretty close to the same thing.  Because of this, the numbers are a bit misleading.  Yeah, Gunter averages over 50 points per game, but it's only that low because they held back a lot.  Harmony could say the same I'm certain.  

I have a certain way that I'm scoring games and it takes the opponents' strength into account.  I think it's a pretty good system and it's more often than not correct on a winner.  If I take Gunter's three best performances against Harmony's 3 best (meaning they each were to play a game equal to one of their best three), I have Gunter on top 39-32.  If they each play one of their worst games (same thing only using the three worst games by each team), I have Harmony winning 35-30.  Considering only district games by each team, I have Gunter taking it 32-27.

In all cases, it's close enough to call it a toss up.  I'd like to see this match-up for sure, but both teams have some work to do before that happens.  Obviously, if they make it that far, I'll have some playoff games against some tougher competition on which to base my numbers.  Right now, I'd call it a toss up. 

 

EDIT :  I decided to play it out just for fun, but if Gunter played one of their best games while Harmony played one of their worst, I'd have Gunter winning 41-18.  The other direction (Harmony's best vs Gunter's worst), I've got Harmony in a 49-27 win. 

Pax, you sir have won Smoaky for the day with your analysis. 🏆 Keep it up. It's nice having some numbers to suggest a point.

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